i am struggling with my financial models and their results for the rest of the year. i think i have done everything reasonably well but would like to hear what others think.
you may find the inventory evolution odd: it's because i am modeling tesla gaming the 200k cutoff for the us tax credit. that is, they intentionally build cars and withhold delivery to avoid crossing 200k, so inventory builds a bit in q2 and is worked off in q3.
those not familiar please understand there are massive inaccuracies trying to project cash flows and balance sheet items, getting close on the income statement is hard enough. so don't be surprised to see things that make you go "hmmmm?".
thank you in advance for any constructive feedback.
[TD2]
luv q4-18
[/TD2][TD2]
luv q3-18
[/TD2][TD2]
luv q2-18
[/TD2][TD2]
Mar-18
[/TD2]
[TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]11,500[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2]
[TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]10,500[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2]
[TD2]
28,000
[/TD2][TD2]
27,000
[/TD2][TD2]
22,000
[/TD2][TD2]
21,815
[/TD2]
[TD2]
60,000
[/TD2][TD2]
50,000
[/TD2][TD2]
23,000
[/TD2][TD2]
8,182
[/TD2]
[TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2][TD2]
0.11
[/TD2]
[TD2]
106.00
[/TD2][TD2]
106.00
[/TD2][TD2]
106.00
[/TD2][TD2]
105.76
[/TD2]
[TD2]
58.00
[/TD2][TD2]
60.00
[/TD2][TD2]
56.00
[/TD2][TD2]
56.00
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,641,520[/TD2][TD2]2,547,180[/TD2][TD2]2,075,480[/TD2][TD2]2,053,375[/TD2]
[TD2]3,480,000[/TD2][TD2]3,000,000[/TD2][TD2]1,288,000[/TD2][TD2]458,192[/TD2]
[TD2]186,903[/TD2][TD2]180,913[/TD2][TD2]175,192[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2]
[TD2]
6,408,423
[/TD2][TD2]
5,828,093
[/TD2][TD2]
3,538,672
[/TD2][TD2]
2,735,317
[/TD2]
[TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]164,500[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2]
[TD2]220,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2]
[TD2]
7,108,423
[/TD2][TD2]
6,583,093
[/TD2][TD2]
4,253,172
[/TD2][TD2]
3,408,751
[/TD2]
[TD2]1,973,415[/TD2][TD2]1,903,004[/TD2][TD2]1,553,374[/TD2][TD2]1,540,031[/TD2]
[TD2]2,836,200[/TD2][TD2]2,490,000[/TD2][TD2]1,288,000[/TD2][TD2]551,366[/TD2]
[TD2]119,618[/TD2][TD2]115,784[/TD2][TD2]112,123[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2]
[TD2]
4,929,233
[/TD2][TD2]
4,508,789
[/TD2][TD2]
2,953,497
[/TD2][TD2]
2,195,893
[/TD2]
[TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]189,000[/TD2][TD2]180,950[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2]
[TD2]154,000[/TD2][TD2]192,500[/TD2][TD2]192,500[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2]
[TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2]
[TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]384,000[/TD2][TD2]365,750[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,649,232
[/TD2][TD2]
5,285,288
[/TD2][TD2]
3,703,697
[/TD2][TD2]
2,952,225
[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,459,191
[/TD2][TD2]
1,297,805
[/TD2][TD2]
549,475
[/TD2][TD2]
456,526
[/TD2]
[TD2]28.5%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.8%[/TD2]
[TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.1%[/TD2]
[TD2]18.5%[/TD2][TD2]17.0%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-20.3%[/TD2]
[TD2]21.9%[/TD2][TD2]21.3%[/TD2][TD2]16.5%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2]
[TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-10.0%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2]
[TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2]
[TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-28.0%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2]
[TD2]335,000[/TD2][TD2]335,000[/TD2][TD2]335,000[/TD2][TD2]332,096[/TD2]
[TD2]545,000[/TD2][TD2]545,000[/TD2][TD2]545,000[/TD2][TD2]546,404[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2]
[TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,090,000
[/TD2][TD2]
1,080,000
[/TD2][TD2]
1,070,000
[/TD2][TD2]
1,053,500
[/TD2]
[TD2]
369,191
[/TD2][TD2]
217,805
[/TD2][TD2]
-520,525
[/TD2][TD2]
-596,974
[/TD2]
[TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2]
[TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2]
[TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
203,191
[/TD2][TD2]
51,805
[/TD2][TD2]
-686,525
[/TD2][TD2]
-779,022
[/TD2]
[TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2]
[TD2]
183,192
[/TD2][TD2]
31,806
[/TD2][TD2]
-706,525
[/TD2][TD2]
-784,627
[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2]
[TD2]
233,193
[/TD2][TD2]
81,807
[/TD2][TD2]
-656,525
[/TD2][TD2]
-709,551
[/TD2]
[TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2]
[TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2]
[TD2]
1.37
[/TD2][TD2]
0.48
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.86
[/TD2][TD2]
-4.19
[/TD2]
[TD2]233,193[/TD2][TD2]81,807[/TD2][TD2]-656,525[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2]
[TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]373,193[/TD2][TD2]221,807[/TD2][TD2]-516,525[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2]
[TD2]
2.20
[/TD2][TD2]
1.30
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.04
[/TD2][TD2]
-3.36
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,176,308[/TD2][TD2]1,688,360[/TD2][TD2]1,881,948[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2]
[TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2]
[TD2]1,168,508[/TD2][TD2]1,082,152[/TD2][TD2]745,762[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2]
[TD2]4,457,476[/TD2][TD2]4,633,677[/TD2][TD2]3,490,608[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2]
[TD2]342,700[/TD2][TD2]339,358[/TD2][TD2]336,017[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2]
[TD2]
8,294,992
[/TD2][TD2]
7,873,547
[/TD2][TD2]
6,554,334
[/TD2][TD2]
6,383,920
[/TD2]
[TD2]2,519,505[/TD2][TD2]2,439,234[/TD2][TD2]2,359,070[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2]
[TD2]6,345,887[/TD2][TD2]6,349,381[/TD2][TD2]6,352,910[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2]
[TD2]12,420,083[/TD2][TD2]11,695,516[/TD2][TD2]11,061,438[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2]
[TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2]
[TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2]
[TD2]428,754[/TD2][TD2]435,754[/TD2][TD2]442,754[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2]
[TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2]
[TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2]
[TD2]
31,144,084
[/TD2][TD2]
29,928,294
[/TD2][TD2]
27,905,368
[/TD2][TD2]
27,271,429
[/TD2]
[TD2]4,767,023[/TD2][TD2]4,691,598[/TD2][TD2]3,429,725[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2]
[TD2]1,972,157[/TD2][TD2]1,900,064[/TD2][TD2]1,828,971[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2]
[TD2]604,681[/TD2][TD2]585,416[/TD2][TD2]542,586[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2]
[TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2]
[TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2]
[TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,800,000[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2]
[TD2]
10,508,862
[/TD2][TD2]
10,342,078
[/TD2][TD2]
9,266,282
[/TD2][TD2]
8,650,359
[/TD2]
[TD2]9,415,700[/TD2][TD2]9,415,700[/TD2][TD2]9,415,700[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2]
[TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2]
[TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2]
[TD2]881,827[/TD2][TD2]853,732[/TD2][TD2]825,674[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2]
[TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]670,000[/TD2][TD2]700,000[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2]
[TD2]2,806,088[/TD2][TD2]2,726,344[/TD2][TD2]2,647,600[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]
24,265,095
[/TD2][TD2]
24,010,473
[/TD2][TD2]
22,857,875
[/TD2][TD2]
21,551,021
[/TD2]
[TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2]
[TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2]
[TD2]
5,576,045
[/TD2][TD2]
4,614,878
[/TD2][TD2]
3,744,550
[/TD2][TD2]
4,450,695
[/TD2]
[TD2]183,192[/TD2][TD2]31,806[/TD2][TD2]-706,525[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2]
[TD2]484,383[/TD2][TD2]456,125[/TD2][TD2]442,458[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2]
[TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2]
[TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2]
[TD2]46,337[/TD2][TD2]34,906[/TD2][TD2]25,658[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2]
[TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2]
[TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2]
[TD2]-86,356[/TD2][TD2]-336,391[/TD2][TD2]-92,914[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2]
[TD2]95,930[/TD2][TD2]-1,223,234[/TD2][TD2]-968,727[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2]
[TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2]
[TD2]147,519[/TD2][TD2]1,332,966[/TD2][TD2]756,767[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-19,823[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,176,005
[/TD2][TD2]
591,179
[/TD2][TD2]
-283,107
[/TD2][TD2]
-398,376
[/TD2]
[TD2]-900,000[/TD2][TD2]-800,000[/TD2][TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2]
[TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-70,000[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2]
[TD2]
-960,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-860,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-770,000
[/TD2][TD2]
-728,637
[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]200,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-300,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2]
[TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2]
[TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2]
[TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2]
[TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2]
[TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2]
[TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2]
[TD2]
258,000
[/TD2][TD2]
58,000
[/TD2][TD2]
258,000
[/TD2][TD2]
371,660
[/TD2]
[TD2]13,944[/TD2][TD2]17,232[/TD2][TD2]11,382[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2]
[TD2]
487,949
[/TD2][TD2]
-193,589
[/TD2][TD2]
-783,725
[/TD2][TD2]
-745,251
[/TD2]
[TD2]
1,688,360
[/TD2][TD2]
1,881,948
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2][TD2]
3,367,914
[/TD2]
[TD2]
2,176,308
[/TD2][TD2]
1,688,360
[/TD2][TD2]
1,881,948
[/TD2][TD2]
2,665,673
[/TD2]
you may find the inventory evolution odd: it's because i am modeling tesla gaming the 200k cutoff for the us tax credit. that is, they intentionally build cars and withhold delivery to avoid crossing 200k, so inventory builds a bit in q2 and is worked off in q3.
those not familiar please understand there are massive inaccuracies trying to project cash flows and balance sheet items, getting close on the income statement is hard enough. so don't be surprised to see things that make you go "hmmmm?".
thank you in advance for any constructive feedback.
… |
s deliveries |
x deliveries |
s+x deliveries |
3 deliveries |
ls veh % total |
avg price s+x |
avg price model 3 |
revenue |
auto sales ex 3 |
auto sales mod 3 |
auto leasing |
1 time autopilot |
zev credits |
total auto |
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services/other |
total revenue |
cost of revenue |
auto sales ex 3 |
auto sales mod 3 |
auto leasing |
total auto |
energy storage |
solarcity |
grohmann |
services & other |
total cost of rev |
gross profit |
auto gaap ex 3 gm |
auto-zev ex 3 gm |
model 3 gm |
auto-zev incl 3 gm |
storage gm |
scty gm |
grohmann gm |
services gm |
opex |
tesla r&d |
tesla sg&a |
1time acq cost |
solarcity r&d |
solarcity sg&a |
total opex |
op income |
interest inc |
interest exp |
scty interest |
other income exp |
1time scty gain |
pretax income |
income tax |
net income |
non-cont int. |
net inc to common |
basic shares |
diluted shares |
diluted gaap eps |
gaap net income |
- stock based comp |
- one time scty |
non-gaap net income |
non-gaap diluted eps |
balance sheet |
current assets |
cash & eq. |
restricted cash |
accts rcvbl |
inventory |
prepaids+other |
total current assets |
op lease vehicles |
solar energy sys |
pp&e |
intangible assets |
goodwill |
mypower rcvbls |
restricted cash |
other assets |
total assets |
current liabiliites |
accts payable |
accrued liabs+other |
deferred revenue |
resale value guar |
cust deposits |
curr debt+leases |
curr solar bonds |
total current liabs |
lt debt+leases |
solar bonds |
rel party conv debt |
deferred revenue |
resale value guar |
other lt liabilities |
comm stk warrants |
capital lease oblg |
total liabilities |
commits/contings |
rdmbl ncis in subs |
conv senior notes |
nci in subsidiaries |
common equity |
cash flow statement |
cash flows from ops |
net loss |
dep/amortization |
stock-based comp |
am of debt discount |
inv write-down |
loss on disposals |
forex loss (gain) |
loss on acq scty |
non-cash int/other |
chgs in op as/lb |
accts rcbl |
inv / op leases |
prepaids/other ca |
mypower rcvbls + other |
accts pybl/accr liabs |
deferred revenue |
customer deposits |
other lt liabs |
net cash from ops |
cash flows from inv |
pp&e purchases |
purchase solar sys |
net cash from inv |
cash flows from fin |
stock issued |
debt issued |
debt repayments |
rel pty solar repaids |
coll lease borrowing |
stock option excrs |
capital lease paids |
stock+debt issue cost |
investment by nci in subs |
dist to nci in subs |
buyouts of nci in subs |
net cash from fin |
forex effect |
net change in cash |
cash & eq start |
cash & eq end |