Ah, video, I was looking for transcripts and wasn't hitting
.8/20 was quite a while ago though, so I'm not sure what it'd imply for today's run rate which is what would guide 2014 guidance and, to a lesser extent, Q4.
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.8/20 was quite a while ago though, so I'm not sure what it'd imply for today's run rate which is what would guide 2014 guidance and, to a lesser extent, Q4.
Expectations should stay as realistic as possible on production rates.. meaning around 600 to 650 per month for now. Information from store employees can no doubt sound exciting (or dull) but should not be included in any analysis. If there is a leak from someone who works in Tesla's production area that would be more believable. If Elon in fact has somehow been able to get to 700 to 800/ week by September 31st we're talking about a tremendous achievement. I mean it still could happen but unlikely. If it happens I think the stock will shoot up significantly as he is executing WAY above expectations and tremendous momentum would return to TSLA with price targets of $300 from various bullish analysts.
I find the first sentence in your post to be ironic :wink:
When I asked a Tesla employee if they are producing 700 cars/week, he didn't really say anything just kind of bobbled his head, which I interpreted as "pretty close to 700", but I could not tell if he meant more or less than 700, because it could have been either one.
In any case he clearly said (without me asking him) that they plan on getting to a 800/week run rate in Q4. And I have also heard about that goal somewhere else about 3 or 4 months ago.
I would not use Craig's VIN assignment numbers to extrapolate a production rate for Q3 either, and would caution people from getting too excited about those numbers. I have my own ways of determining how many cars were produced/delivered but I have not had enough time to go through the process.
But I can already tell that at a maximum Tesla produced 7,000 cars in Q3. When I say maximum, I mean that it could be a number anywhere from 5,500 to 7,000; and not higher. I am not saying they actually produced 7,000 or that they came close to it. All I am saying is that I would not be using a production number above 7,000 to determine deliveries like I have seen some people doing.
Agreed. I'm thinking more about future guidance based on an improved run rate rather than a big surprise on Q3 production.
I am much less skeptical that the majority on using the information from store employees as a data points. For example, there is an independent evidence that Tesla targets 800/week in Q4, 2013 and not by the end of 2014 as Elon mentioned prior to Q2 ER.
According to Jeff Howell, president of the Panasonic Industrial Devices Sales Company of America “Panasonic views Tesla as a very strategic customer.” He said the company was “committed to supplying and supporting Tesla business with the goal of providing 300 million battery cells by next year.” (see NYT Wheels Blog Article linked below)
According to report from Global Times linked below: "The electronics maker will resume operation of idled lines at the Suminoe Plant in Osaka Prefecture, which produces batteries for US automaker Tesla Motors Inc., as early as next January" Theses idled lines comprise Phase I of Suminoe plant which was built to produce 300 million cells per year - see the third link below
Since 300 million cells is enough to build more than 42,000 85kWh Model S, Tesla is set to achieve more than 800 cars/week production in Q4, as not all of the cars will be built with an 85kWh battery. This also means that target for for 2014 is at least 42,000 cars
Regarding the Craig's data on VIN assignment rates, I think that average rate for Q3 was above 600 cars/week. Review of the deliveries threads show that there was no increase wait time during the Q3. This could mean only one thing: that production rate kept pace with the rate of VIN assignment, i.e. on average, production was above 600 cars/week in Q3.
http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/201...tion-tesla-worries-about-battery-supply/?_r=0
Panasonic to increase lithium-ion battery production capacity - BUSINESS - Globaltimes.cn
Panasonic's New Lithium-Ion Battery Plant to Start Mass Production Next Month | Headquarters News | Panasonic Global
Thank you for this. Your analysis has long been top tier and once again has strengthened my own conviction about the upcoming quarter / Next year ! Thanks
Would like to include Julian's post below in my thanks
... I feel the same way like we are set up for the biggest blow out of the year in q3. Well since may anyway ... hard to believe this much has happened in one year.
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IMO there are a couple of simple points worth noting.
Q2 Q&A left the total Q2 production figure unresolved.
We know production was already hitting 550 per week in June i.e. c6600 quarterly run rate vs c 5100 announced sales. (Musk's 8th August figure is a well-rehearsed reiteration of last known public data point, nothing more).
It would be extremely surprising if the delivered production from a standing start did not exceed 6600, but it was not a standing start owing to the carry over from Q2 on its way to Europe. I believe we can count on a 500 to 1000 one-time carry over that does not feature in any bearish estimates, and barely features in bullish estimates either. Just looking at a linear ramp from 550 to 600 units weekly across Q3 we are looking at 7500~8000 units sold in Q3 Non-GAAP with greater than 85% sold GAAP (6375~6800 units direct to bottom line) of which a higher than normal % will be Euro Sigs. It will be a monumental blow-out quarter at most likely north of 21% gross margin and both GAAP and Non-GAAP profitability assured per guidance.
Note the disciplined rate of supercharger roll outs and store/service center openings.
My greatest concern for Q3 was that the pattern of silence and surprise seen in Q1 and Q2 would be anticipated and factored into the stock price in advance. Given the overburden of nonsense about valuation* against a background of political distraction in Washington, it is not. The element of surprise is very much alive and well for Q3 earnings.
*By nonsense, there is no such thing as "overvalued", there is only overvaluation by comparison to something similar and readily available cheaper elsewhere. There is no other company on this scale that is simultaneously both profitable and in unchallenged hyper-growth for the foreseeable future. Definitely not in the auto industry where if anything (autopilot) Tesla is actually expanding its technological lead, and consolidating its contractual strangle hold on the global supply of suitable batteries for the mass production of cost-effective EVs.
Note also to paraphrase almost precisely from a previous interview with Elon Musk. "We will be looking to test the limits of demand in 2014'. 300 M cells from Panasonic plus Samsung readying to come on stream, plus LG, plus the possibility of BYD - the latter no doubt required to overcome import restrictions to China by installing 50% of the base cost of manufacture with Chinese components (the battery pack). It is fair to say that the lowly 800 p/w by end 2014 and the well rehearsed whining about supply constraint that was clearly on its way to being well in hand was a set up to lure in the shorts for yet another total pounding. 800 p/w straight off the bat in January would be the sort of commitment traded with Panasonic in return for bringing cell production plants on stream and locking down exclusivity of supply, not just with Panasonic but a route to exclusivity across all four of the main suppliers. It also makes some sense of the efforts to expand geographic sales territories in advance of what will obviously be a very big push indeed in 2014.
Q2 Q&A left the total Q2 production figure unresolved.
We know production was already hitting 550 per week in June i.e. c6600 quarterly run rate vs c 5100 announced sales. (Musk's 8th August figure is a well-rehearsed reiteration of last known public data point, nothing more).
It would be extremely surprising if the delivered production from a standing start did not exceed 6600, but it was not a standing start owing to the carry over from Q2 on its way to Europe. I believe we can count on a 500 to 1000 one-time carry over that does not feature in any bearish estimates, and barely features in bullish estimates either. Just looking at a linear ramp from 550 to 600 units weekly across Q3 we are looking at 7500~8000 units sold in Q3 Non-GAAP with greater than 85% sold GAAP (6375~6800 units direct to bottom line) of which a higher than normal % will be Euro Sigs. It will be a monumental blow-out quarter at most likely north of 21% gross margin and both GAAP and Non-GAAP profitability assured per guidance.
Note the disciplined rate of supercharger roll outs and store/service center openings.
My greatest concern for Q3 was that the pattern of silence and surprise seen in Q1 and Q2 would be anticipated and factored into the stock price in advance. Given the overburden of nonsense about valuation* against a background of political distraction in Washington, it is not. The element of surprise is very much alive and well for Q3 earnings.
*By nonsense, there is no such thing as "overvalued", there is only overvaluation by comparison to something similar and readily available cheaper elsewhere. There is no other company on this scale that is simultaneously both profitable and in unchallenged hyper-growth for the foreseeable future. Definitely not in the auto industry where if anything (autopilot) Tesla is actually expanding its technological lead, and consolidating its contractual strangle hold on the global supply of suitable batteries for the mass production of cost-effective EVs.
Note also to paraphrase almost precisely from a previous interview with Elon Musk. "We will be looking to test the limits of demand in 2014'. 300 M cells from Panasonic plus Samsung readying to come on stream, plus LG, plus the possibility of BYD - the latter no doubt required to overcome import restrictions to China by installing 50% of the base cost of manufacture with Chinese components (the battery pack). It is fair to say that the lowly 800 p/w by end 2014 and the well rehearsed whining about supply constraint that was clearly on its way to being well in hand was a set up to lure in the shorts for yet another total pounding. 800 p/w straight off the bat in January would be the sort of commitment traded with Panasonic in return for bringing cell production plants on stream and locking down exclusivity of supply, not just with Panasonic but a route to exclusivity across all four of the main suppliers. It also makes some sense of the efforts to expand geographic sales territories in advance of what will obviously be a very big push indeed in 2014.
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StapleGun
Member
I like data point, and hopefully Samsung will be supplying a non-trivial amount of batteries before the end of the year as well. I think Tesla's internal goals are much higher than 40k. Looking short-term though that data is too speculative to really affect the price unless Tesla officially guides for those kind of numbers on the ER.
Julian - How do we/you know production was 550/week in June? (I thought we were under 500/week in June.)
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The phrase "by next year" can be interpreted as:
1. 300m cells delivered by [the beginning of] 2014.
2. 300m cells delivered by [the end of] 2014
* I think #2 is the more plausible explanation.
The "300m battery cells" goal can be interpreted as a cumulative goal (ie., since 2012) or as an annual goal (ie., 300m in 2014).
I'm not following you here. Can you explain? When are you figuring the 300m cells to be delivered by - end of 2013 or end of 2014?
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I have definitely noticed this. I was really surprised when I heard about the Palo Alto store opening because just a week before I was driving down El Camino in the Sunnyvale area and saw a building that had two Tesla's parked out front and with a banner that had the Tesla logo and said "Coming Soon". For those that know the area, Sunnyvale is maybe only 10-15 miles south from Palo Alto. Not to mention there already is a Tesla store in Santa Clara (Santana Row) which is less than 10 miles south of Sunnyvale. Also, the location of the store was right in the heart of where all the other dealerships where (Toyota, GM, etc). So just in this 25 mile strip along El Camino there will be 3 Tesla stores! This will definitely be testing the depths of demand here in the Bay Area.
Just to clarify, I wrote "550 per week in June i.e. c6600 quarterly run rate", meaning reaching 550p/w by end of June (convert that into a "quarter-ized" run rate and you get c6600). Looking backwards over Q2 that number was reached from a starting point of around 400, but looking forward across Q3 it would seem fair that 550p/w can be treated as a starting point and as a minimum. Production may well have averaged 600p/w or sloped in some other pattern to 600 or perhaps 700 depending on the weight given to the evidence for that. Personally I think that is quite likely, nevertheless starting at a wholly reliable 550pw in Q3 and going level or anywhere up from there is sufficient to look forward to Q3 results the trigger for another squeeze when adding Q2 carry over to go north of 7000+profits+>20gross + GAAP & Non-GAAP profits. If the figure turns out to be 7500~8000+ then the only question is the scale of the carnage.
I think we have to face that fact that we are not able to predict the production in this quarter with any accuracy. I have tried to look back through this thread to see what I could find of original data points or analysis, rather than just echo:
VIN assignment
This method is actually very clever. It assumes that although Tesla have been intentionally skipping back and forth in the VINs to throw off any analysis, they will still over time be assigning VINs at a pace that corresponds to production. So rather than tracking the VINs themselves, it tracks the number of people who get VINs assigned. Having said that, Q3 assignment rates are clearly higher than production, because many EU customers got VINs assigned for production way into the future, while that was not the case in Q2. The method may become more accurate in Q4. As an indication of the lack of accuracy, the VIN assignment rate was actually falling recently. At best the rate could be used as a ceiling for Q3. The rate has been 728 VINs per week over the past two months. (Source: http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/new-vin-thread-please-post-your-newly-assigned-vins-here)
Max VINs produced/delivered
Several contributors have posted analyses based on tracking VINs that have been produced or delivered. I am not including these, due to my complete conviction that this is an inherently unreliable method. I am waiting for delivery of my car in early December, and higher VINs than mine have been delivered long ago. Many others are in the same situation. q.e.d.
Aug 20 video
This: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMYmSuicTXE
Elon says "Now we are at around 500 to 550 a week". Assuming this is the average for the quarter, this means a production of 5,900-6,490 cars. Taking into account that they are generally sandbagging in good times, maybe go with the higher number of ~6,500?
Note that although the video was posted on Aug 20, it is unclear when it was recorded.
Employee chatter and rumors
2pearls: "I Have heard from an informed source that they are presently manufacturing 700+ cars per week. 500 for US and 200 for Europe. Has anyone else heard this or taken a tour to see what they are manufacturing?"
brianstorms: "I went on a 1300-mile drive up to Northern CA and along the way spoke to various Tesla employees who I asked about the 700+ week figure and they pretty much confirmed that that is what the factory is up to"
Sleepyhead: "I have my own ways of determining how many cars were produced/delivered but I have not had enough time to go through the process. But I can already tell that at a maximum Tesla produced 7,000 cars in Q3. When I say maximum, I mean that it could be a number anywhere from 5,500 to 7,000"
New analysis from me:
Exponential extrapolation
Just a simple exercise of mine. Q1 shareholder letter says they built "more than" 5000 cars in that quarter. A report on this forum cites a congratulatory sign at the factory reporting 5454 cars in Q2. There were 60 working days in Q1, which means 83.3 cars/working day assuming the 5000 figure. In Q2 there were 58 work days, taking into account the week they closed the factory. This gives 94.0 cars per working day, an increase of 12.8%. Assuming they were able to do 12.8% again in Q3, their daily production would be 106.1 cars/working day. Based on 59 working days (taking into account one week off for the factory), this would give a Q3 production of 6,258 cars.
One could wonder whether the recall depressed production. However, seeing that they reported the cost at only $150,000 and that the cars were fixed at service centers I don't think there was any significant impact.
Conclusion: Taking the above together, I feel that we are going to be in the 6,500-6,900 range, going for a middle estimate of 6,700. It is tempting to put a higher figure based on the employee chatter/rumors, but this data feels like an outlier that must be disregarded. At the same time, the video gives me confidence of at least 6,500.
A summary of the firm predictions of others that I could find:
DaveT: 6600
Sleepy: 5500-7000 (said 6000 in a post in early September)
Vgrinshpun: >7080 (>600/week)
Julian Cox: >6600
Convert: 7340-7930
DrDave: 6490-7080 "at best" (550-600 at best)
Clprenz: 7,750
bonnie, Kevin99 and others: No firm prediction, but expressing a feeling that others are too optimistic
To discuss the other items that go into the analysis of deliveries:
Increase in inventory of loaners and showroom cars: I cannot see how this would not be higher than zero. The word at end of Q2 was that all loaners had been sold off, and they have opened new showrooms. On the other hand, they seem to be pushing hard to maximize Q3 numbers and there are rumors of low stock of loaners also now. I will guesstimate an increase in the inventory of some 150 cars.
Increase in cars-in-transit to delivery: Some (Julian Cox I think) have claimed that cars-in-transit was high at the start of the quarter. I do not have hard data, but here in the biggest EU market there were few reports of deliveries prior to Aug 15. In the Netherlands and Switzerland, the total for July and August was 51, and many of those cars would have been produced in July. I will guesstimate the ingoing inventory at 100. Outgoing is going to be lower than expected, based on a data point of an 80% drop in the rate of new registrations of Model S in Norway from September to October. Guesstimate: 500-700 cars outgoing, will assume 600. The increase would then be 500.
Unless the train crash killed a significant number of cars, Q3 deliveries would then be 6,700-150-500 = 6,050.
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EDIT: The more I think about it, the more I think this estimate should not be considered pessimistic in any way. They key question that is going through my head is: "Why would they drop EU deliveries almost to zero in October, and then ramp them up wildly afterwards?". The effect of doing so is boosting Q3 at the expense of Q4 (and some logistics disruptions). If they were beating Q3 massively, there would be no reason to do so.
EDIT2: Felt that a sensitivity analysis would be in order. So here goes:
Pessimistic: 6,200-150-600 = 5,450
Optimistic: 6,900-50-400 = 6,450
Assumptions for pessimistic scenario: 525 cars/week (the middle of the 500-550 cited by Elon in the Aug 20 video). 150 net new non-delivery cars. 700 cars in transit to Europe at end-of-quarter, 100 at beginning.
Assumptions for optimistic scenario: 585 cars/week (an increase of 26.5% on previous quarter, as compared to the 12.8% they managed in Q2). Only 50 non-delivery cars (incl. train wreck). 500 cars in transit to EU after quarter, 100 before.
My gut feeling is that the optimistic scenario is really a stretch. The pessimistic scenario, on the other hand, still implies a similar quarter on quarter increase in production than they managed in Q2 (of whice they were justly proud).
VIN assignment
This method is actually very clever. It assumes that although Tesla have been intentionally skipping back and forth in the VINs to throw off any analysis, they will still over time be assigning VINs at a pace that corresponds to production. So rather than tracking the VINs themselves, it tracks the number of people who get VINs assigned. Having said that, Q3 assignment rates are clearly higher than production, because many EU customers got VINs assigned for production way into the future, while that was not the case in Q2. The method may become more accurate in Q4. As an indication of the lack of accuracy, the VIN assignment rate was actually falling recently. At best the rate could be used as a ceiling for Q3. The rate has been 728 VINs per week over the past two months. (Source: http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/new-vin-thread-please-post-your-newly-assigned-vins-here)
Max VINs produced/delivered
Several contributors have posted analyses based on tracking VINs that have been produced or delivered. I am not including these, due to my complete conviction that this is an inherently unreliable method. I am waiting for delivery of my car in early December, and higher VINs than mine have been delivered long ago. Many others are in the same situation. q.e.d.
Aug 20 video
This: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMYmSuicTXE
Elon says "Now we are at around 500 to 550 a week". Assuming this is the average for the quarter, this means a production of 5,900-6,490 cars. Taking into account that they are generally sandbagging in good times, maybe go with the higher number of ~6,500?
Note that although the video was posted on Aug 20, it is unclear when it was recorded.
Employee chatter and rumors
2pearls: "I Have heard from an informed source that they are presently manufacturing 700+ cars per week. 500 for US and 200 for Europe. Has anyone else heard this or taken a tour to see what they are manufacturing?"
brianstorms: "I went on a 1300-mile drive up to Northern CA and along the way spoke to various Tesla employees who I asked about the 700+ week figure and they pretty much confirmed that that is what the factory is up to"
Sleepyhead: "I have my own ways of determining how many cars were produced/delivered but I have not had enough time to go through the process. But I can already tell that at a maximum Tesla produced 7,000 cars in Q3. When I say maximum, I mean that it could be a number anywhere from 5,500 to 7,000"
New analysis from me:
Exponential extrapolation
Just a simple exercise of mine. Q1 shareholder letter says they built "more than" 5000 cars in that quarter. A report on this forum cites a congratulatory sign at the factory reporting 5454 cars in Q2. There were 60 working days in Q1, which means 83.3 cars/working day assuming the 5000 figure. In Q2 there were 58 work days, taking into account the week they closed the factory. This gives 94.0 cars per working day, an increase of 12.8%. Assuming they were able to do 12.8% again in Q3, their daily production would be 106.1 cars/working day. Based on 59 working days (taking into account one week off for the factory), this would give a Q3 production of 6,258 cars.
One could wonder whether the recall depressed production. However, seeing that they reported the cost at only $150,000 and that the cars were fixed at service centers I don't think there was any significant impact.
Conclusion: Taking the above together, I feel that we are going to be in the 6,500-6,900 range, going for a middle estimate of 6,700. It is tempting to put a higher figure based on the employee chatter/rumors, but this data feels like an outlier that must be disregarded. At the same time, the video gives me confidence of at least 6,500.
A summary of the firm predictions of others that I could find:
DaveT: 6600
Sleepy: 5500-7000 (said 6000 in a post in early September)
Vgrinshpun: >7080 (>600/week)
Julian Cox: >6600
Convert: 7340-7930
DrDave: 6490-7080 "at best" (550-600 at best)
Clprenz: 7,750
bonnie, Kevin99 and others: No firm prediction, but expressing a feeling that others are too optimistic
To discuss the other items that go into the analysis of deliveries:
Increase in inventory of loaners and showroom cars: I cannot see how this would not be higher than zero. The word at end of Q2 was that all loaners had been sold off, and they have opened new showrooms. On the other hand, they seem to be pushing hard to maximize Q3 numbers and there are rumors of low stock of loaners also now. I will guesstimate an increase in the inventory of some 150 cars.
Increase in cars-in-transit to delivery: Some (Julian Cox I think) have claimed that cars-in-transit was high at the start of the quarter. I do not have hard data, but here in the biggest EU market there were few reports of deliveries prior to Aug 15. In the Netherlands and Switzerland, the total for July and August was 51, and many of those cars would have been produced in July. I will guesstimate the ingoing inventory at 100. Outgoing is going to be lower than expected, based on a data point of an 80% drop in the rate of new registrations of Model S in Norway from September to October. Guesstimate: 500-700 cars outgoing, will assume 600. The increase would then be 500.
Unless the train crash killed a significant number of cars, Q3 deliveries would then be 6,700-150-500 = 6,050.
----
EDIT: The more I think about it, the more I think this estimate should not be considered pessimistic in any way. They key question that is going through my head is: "Why would they drop EU deliveries almost to zero in October, and then ramp them up wildly afterwards?". The effect of doing so is boosting Q3 at the expense of Q4 (and some logistics disruptions). If they were beating Q3 massively, there would be no reason to do so.
EDIT2: Felt that a sensitivity analysis would be in order. So here goes:
Pessimistic: 6,200-150-600 = 5,450
Optimistic: 6,900-50-400 = 6,450
Assumptions for pessimistic scenario: 525 cars/week (the middle of the 500-550 cited by Elon in the Aug 20 video). 150 net new non-delivery cars. 700 cars in transit to Europe at end-of-quarter, 100 at beginning.
Assumptions for optimistic scenario: 585 cars/week (an increase of 26.5% on previous quarter, as compared to the 12.8% they managed in Q2). Only 50 non-delivery cars (incl. train wreck). 500 cars in transit to EU after quarter, 100 before.
My gut feeling is that the optimistic scenario is really a stretch. The pessimistic scenario, on the other hand, still implies a similar quarter on quarter increase in production than they managed in Q2 (of whice they were justly proud).
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There is no -150-500 without a corresponding 500+ carry over from Q2 to Europe for delivery in Q3.
There has only been one break in the delivery chain and that was the one that depressed the results in Q2 to only as good as they were. There seems to be some strange resistance to accepting this obvious point nevertheless this is the key point that I am trying to get home.
Am I understanding you right that you are claiming that there were 500 cars on their way to Europe at the end of Q2? I would challenge you to come up with some sort of support for that assertion. EU deliveries in July and the first half of August were virtually zero. As you will see in my post, I have assumed that the cars-in-transit were 100 at the end of Q2. I think that this figure might even be on the high side.
UPDATE: I now have the confirmed numbers of registrations. In July and August, there were 190 Model S registered in Norway, 45 in Switzerland and 6 in the Netherlands. Of these, only a handful were registered in July (5 in Norway, 1 in the Netherlands etc.), and those were probably demo cars. From the delivery reports on the Norwegian forum and the EU Delieveries thread here on TMC, it is my very clear impression that most of there 241 cars were delivered at the end of August and beginning of September. That makes them July production.
Given that people saw shipping-ready EU-bound cars at factory visits in June, we know that the carry over is not zero. Based on the figures cited above, we also know that it was far below 241. I think the 100 I used in my post is probably a spot on estimate.
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Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I think the registration data in EU shows that the number of EU cars in transit cannot be more than ~100-150 cars because those would have been registered in July-August timeframe and there is close to no registration data from July and the registrations in August are smallish. The true hit in EU came in late August/September that would be actually cars produced in Q3.
I think also that the outgoing rate will not be too high, but the 500 outgoing cars for early EU deliveries in Q4 is about the right ballpark so I do agree with the reduction in DonPedros post. There might be a bit larger outgoing rate if the October registrations in central EU region are higher by far (we know in Norway the October numbers will be minuscule), but I'd not put it beyond 500 much.
And I have to say the logic in DonPedros assumptions does give a good baseline. It can be more optimistic, but it presents in my opinion a realistic view. My own tracked excel table shows ca 6500 registrations in US+EU for what I was able to find, but it's dominated by the US numbers which have to be taken with a grain of salt due to some discrepancy in numbers between July and August that made me derive some of the numbers. It surprisingly gave me Aug and Sep numbers to be the same. Also I'm missing some September numbers i.e. Switzerland and France so all-in-all I'd put the number of delivered cars to 6500 with about a 10% as one standard deviation giving 5850-7150 as the 68% probability range.
Edit: link to my google docs: Google Docs - Online documents, spreadsheets, presentations, surveys, file storage and more
Benz
Active Member
One of the most interesting points that I am looking forward to hear Elon Musk speak about (during the Q3 2013 Earnings Conference Call) is his view on the current "production constraints" situation. During the Q2 2013 Earnings Conference Call in August 2013 he mentioned that they would have solved those "production constraints" issues in Q2 2014, but I personally think that they can have them solved sooner. Therefore, I would like to hear is current view on this situation.
If they will have solved them before the start of 2014, then the total number of Model S sales in 2014 will be at least 40,000 (even a total of 50,000 would be realistic prediction).
If they will have solved them before the start of 2014, then the total number of Model S sales in 2014 will be at least 40,000 (even a total of 50,000 would be realistic prediction).
#2 is not plausible because of the earlier report by Panasonic that cumulative deliveries by end of June 2013 were 100 million cells. Assuming that end of 2014 cumulative deliveries would be 300 million cells yields total of (300m-100m)/7104=28,153 85kWh cars over 6 quarters, or average of 391 cars/week - impossibly low production. Assuming that end of 2013 deliveries would be 300 million cells yields total of 28,153 85kWh cars over 2 quarters, or average of 1,173 cars/week in Q3-Q4 2013 - impossibly high production.
This is why I interpret 300 million cells as an annual production rate at the end of 2013.
http://news.panasonic.net/archives/2013/0612_22989.html
- - - Updated - - -
300m cells is the annual run rate at the end of 2013, this is the only way I can make three links provided in my original post be accurate at the same time. Considering that this also matches what Sleepy reported learning from the conversation with store employee (800 cars/week in Q4), I think that is proven beyond reasonable doubt that Tesla is set to achieve annual rate of at least 42,000 cars in Q4 2013.
This also means that guidance for 2014 will be at least 42,000 cars, and production likely be considerably higher.
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RationalOptimist
Member
Great, thoughtful post, DP. Too much pre-earnings froth may come back and bite us all.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
I think your data points and most of the analysis is correct, but the guidance you draw is not. Yes Tesla internal goal for 2014 is most likely going to be > 42k cars, but the guidance in Q3 and Q4 ER will be way smaller. Remember the underpromise-overdeliver part. I think they will guide ~35k-37k range for 2014 and slowly revise that upwards over the 2014 FY ERs.
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