Realistic Timeline for 35k base Model 3

[jeffro01]

At this point, and I hate to say this to those who have waited this long, there is never going to be a $35K Model 3... It's much like the S40 (I think it was 40 IIRC)...

If you're holding out for a $35K M3 then prepare to be disappointed... I hope I'm wrong but history indicates otherwise with Tesla...

Jeff

 

[ucmndd]

At this point, and I hate to say this to those who have waited this long, there is never going to be a $35K Model 3... It's much like the S40 (I think it was 40 IIRC)...

If you're holding out for a $35K M3 then prepare to be disappointed... I hope I'm wrong but history indicates otherwise with Tesla...

Jeff

I tend to agree. At bare minimum I suspect a nominal base price increase to ~$38k with some excuse about inflation and the $35k being in "2016 dollars". Plus a thousand bucks for a color you actually want and a $1k destination fee and you're at 40 grand.

 

[Moderatefan]

They have zero reason to start delivering the short range car before the end of the year. There's plenty of demand for the currently available versions at current production rates, and the phase-out of the tax credit will push many of the people waiting for the short range car off the fence, converting those sales into higher margin deals.

Wishful thinking.
People were pushing F5 every minute to get their invite. I think most who could already have ordered. Not much reason to think that SR people are on the fence twiddling fingers.
"Plenty of demand" needs to materialize from those who didn't have reservations, otherwise US LR orders will not last through the end of the year.
So, we'll be observing how those 100 Ps in stores help with the new orders.

 

[jeffro01]

I tend to agree. At bare minimum I suspect a nominal base price increase to ~$38k with some excuse about inflation and the $35k being in "2016 dollars". Plus a thousand bucks for a color you actually want and a $1k destination fee and you're at 40 grand.

Truth be told, I think at this point the SR battery is likely going to end up as vaporware as well... Tesla seems to have no trouble selling the LR battery so if I were them, I'd just stick to that... Why sacrifice the margins?

Jeff

 

[JoganJani]

I read today that Tesla dropped $35000 from the main page.

 

[brianman]

At this point, and I hate to say this to those who have waited this long, there is never going to be a $35K Model 3... It's much like the S40 (I think it was 40 IIRC)...

You mean the S40 that they delivered as a better offering than people paid for?

 

[jeffro01]

You mean the S40 that they delivered as a better offering than people paid for?

I thought no 40s ever made it out the factory? Perhaps I'm missing something for sure, it was a long time ago...

Jeff

 

[brianman]

I thought no 40s ever made it out the factory? Perhaps I'm missing something for sure, it was a long time ago...

The "S40" was indeed delivered but with a twist: 60 kWh battery, software limited to 40 kWh. Because Tesla went this route, there is a software-only upgrade option to use the full 60 kWh, and a subsequent option to enable supercharging. Both of these upgrades were not part of the original "S40" proposition.

 

[ucmndd]

Wishful thinking.
People were pushing F5 every minute to get their invite. I think most who could already have ordered. Not much reason to think that SR people are on the fence twiddling fingers.

When we get close to the end of the year and the reality sets in that you can either get a long range car now or get a short range car "maybe at some point in the future" and leave at least $3750 on the table, they will start to leap.

 

[jeffro01]

The "S40" was indeed delivered but with a twist: 60 kWh battery, software limited to 40 kWh. Because Tesla went this route, there is a software-only upgrade option to use the full 60 kWh, and a subsequent option to enable supercharging. Both of these upgrades were not part of the original "S40" proposition.

Ah... Gotcha, thanks for the information. I was fairly certain no actual S40kWh battery was ever made but totally forgot about the 60 limited to the 40 that did actually ship...

Jeff

 

[brianman]

I was fairly certain no actual S40kWh battery was ever made

No worries. I suspected so. Point of clarification: I don't recall if they internally had some 40 kWh battery packs, but I'm fairly confident they never delivered customer cars containing them.

Adjusting your original point from ...

there is never going to be a $35K Model 3... It's much like the S40

to …

there is never going to be a Model 3 with a non-LR battery pack

That's possible. I don't think it's likely, but it's possible.


I think there will be media (indirectly) and customers (directly) demanding a $35K vehicle (but don't care if the range is due to SR hardware or software-limiting of LR). I know a few that refuse to pay for even the paint upgrade. It's a principle thing -- they only want to spend the minimum on the 3.

Also there are some problems with not delivering the $35k vehicle at the government level. An example is Washington state.
https://www.dol.wa.gov/vehicleregistration/docs/faq-altfuleexemptions.pdf

The tax exemption threshold to a vehicle’s base model Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) increased from $35,000 to $42,500 or less.

My recollection is that LR adds $9k and premium interior adds $5k. If that's correct, LR alone is $44k which is not <= $42.5k.

Thus, if Tesla doesn't deliver a $35k Model 3 offering (or something "not quite LR" offering at $42.5k or less) to at least some customers in the next year or two then WA state will want some tax money from Tesla or customers or both.

 

[Moderatefan]

When we get close to the end of the year and the reality sets in that you can either get a long range car now or get a short range car "maybe at some point in the future" and leave at least $3750 on the table, they will start to leap.

Many people are on budgets. Currently its +14k (including PUP), so -$3,750 is not a deciding factor. I don't believe in maybe. I think SR will be there, it's 50% of demand and Elon's goal is mass market EV, not a niche EV.

 

[fluxemag]

I'm guessing they will pull a Model S 40 move and never actually make it. The "sub $50k" electric Model S with 160 miles of range was the basis for their sales pitch from 2008-2012. What it ended up being was a software-limited Model S 60 with 120 miles of range for the same price as originally advertised, which was a great deal, but only a few hundred people resisted the up-sell (some waiting 4 years for a car). The official line was that the "40" didn't have the performance Elon wanted, or the demand, so they scrapped it. What's interesting today is that there are plenty of people who want the cheap Tesla, but Tesla is no longer in the business of doing people favors and losing money on cars. So maybe they make the SR next year if it's got the gross margin from manufacturing efficiency gains, maybe they up the price due to inflation after 3 years, or some other logic to get them out of the $35k Tesla conundrum.

 

[ChrisH]

I think they will for sure deliver a decent amount of SR cars by the end of 2019. I expect them to make the base $35k model available in the second half of 2019 (if they ever actually make it to save face PR wise). It allows some people to get it with a tax credit but I don’t think it will be any earlier than that.

 

[ChrisH]

When we get close to the end of the year and the reality sets in that you can either get a long range car now or get a short range car "maybe at some point in the future" and leave at least $3750 on the table, they will start to leap.

This is exactly where I am right now. There’s a chance they will never make the SR version so I’m trying to figure out how to justify the leap in our budget.

 

[Moderatefan]

I think they will for sure deliver a decent amount of SR cars by the end of 2019

Come on people, stop the FUD.
The 3 order page clearly states on it

Standard Battery available in 6-9 months

I think there's high chance they will make a few in 2018 and will be done with U.S. SR line by mid 2019.

 

[theschnell]

I don’t think SR will happen before second half of 2019. If FSD ready by then (which I don’t expect), then SR will for sure never happen.

I was linestander for SR, but capitulated and jumped to LR last week (Delivery August 10) when it became clear that SR was extremely unlikely to come in time for full tax credit.

I think demand for non awd LR is a bit soft right now, but demand will crescendo as more M3s are out and full tax credit expiration looms closer.

Edit: Moderatefan, I cross posted with you (typing on my phone), but since when did Tesla do something on schedule? 6-9 months could easily bump to 9 - 12 months and I think it will.

 

[boriszima]

I think next year, this way SR model 3 will "compete" with upgrade Nissan Leaf rumored at 60kWh battery and GM Bolt, all around 200-220 range and likely similar price tag. But history as discussed above, with a 40kWh Tesla S, maybe in the end Tesla will never sell a bare-bone model. Likely will depend on profit margin if price of parts, battery, etc will be low enough, then us, but if not, then they have to add bundle to the price tag. Since by then Tax credit will be at least halved of $7500, it might not be worth it for some.

 

[ChrisH]

I think next year, this way SR model 3 will "compete" with upgrade Nissan Leaf rumored at 60kWh battery and GM Bolt, all around 200-220 range and likely similar price tag. But history as discussed above, with a 40kWh Tesla S, maybe in the end Tesla will never sell a bare-bone model. Likely will depend on profit margin if price of parts, battery, etc will be low enough, then us, but if not, then they have to add bundle to the price tag. Since by then Tax credit will be at least halved of $7500, it might not be worth it for some.

Also, what’s up with the reviews of the Bolt saying they can get 300+ miles range even though it is only rated at 220 or something?

 

[Moderatefan]

but since when did Tesla do something on schedule? 6-9 months could easily bump to 9 - 12 months and I think it will.

Did you notice they are cutting wait times currently(not increasing), so rwd+p are 1-3mos and awd 2-4 mos?
We are also looking at higher production rates in 2019, like 7-8k or with luck even more. Yes, half of that will go to Europe, but 6mo*4k=96k that is comparable to SR line.
Edit: sorry for math. Got used to 5k factor