Redesign/4680 "Holdout Buyers" Discussion

[DayTrippin]

If they're gonna put 4680's onto any Model Y's, it'll start with their Performance trim.

I'm in the Chicagoland area and delayed my Model Y Performance delivery to at least May of 2022 next year. With me being east of the Mississippi, I'm hoping I'll get the new Y's from Austin as Tesla's plan for Austin is anything east of the Mississippi comes from Austin, while anything west of the Mississippi comes from Fremont.

I wonder if that applies if you live in Texas... If you live in Texas, what are the odds of getting an MIT MY?

About 7 months ago I was debating this same thing, holding out for the 4680's. It seemed like they were always just over the horizon so to speak. I was very tempted to hold out but following the sage advice of someone here, I went ahead and bought put in my order then. Given how much the price went up since then it was a massive saving and a pretty rare time where the car has appreciated in value.

Given the incredibly long lead times, it makes it pretty difficult to determine what you might actually get. More importantly Tesla may say the new 4680's are an all-new model and your reservation may not directly transfer. That would allow them to blow out all the lower-priced reservations where people are "speculating" that they'll get the latest and greatest at the old price.

Now they may be nice and let you transfer your old MYP reservation to the MYP+ version but there are no guarantees. Nothing also says their current approach of letting you delay your delivery when you receive VIN will remain in place.

With enough demand, they may care even less than they currently do about their customers. If you don't want to take your order when it arrives, and they can replace you with someone paying $5-10k more, there will be a lot of incentive to bump and dump you. Given the fact they bumped the ordering fee up from $100 earlier probably indicated some people may be gaming the system a bit. I wouldn't be surprised if they bump it again given the demand. It will also help see how firm that demand really is as well.

 

[leoita]

My plan was to order the MY by the end of the year, but with the current delays and the 4680 on the line, I am willing to wait. Also there might be some other upgrades. The Austin is going to start full production probably beginning of the next year, so waiting a couple months isn't going to change much, especially when I am planning to keep the car for years.

 

[nomorefuel]

You could always order, as there is a big wait, and when you get notified that your delivery date is coming up, just change your order if you are not happy and you should reset. I put my order in Oct 30 and my EDD is June 2022 so I'm hoping by then the new batteries are in and I will get my car with the new batteries.

 

[closdeben]

Good to see I'm not alone. We live 3 hours from the major metro area so the range increase is valuable. Not impossible without but really helpful to have. Watching all the price bumps has given me more than a little indigestion. One friend suggested leasing to take the "game changer feature" risk away. Delivery dates now 10/2022 so it's a wait no matter what. What's the downside of leasing a Y ? I haven't compared the extra fee's involved. You'd normally have a purchase option at the end as well so seem like it would provide some extra insurance.

 

[Ogre]

Good to see I'm not alone. We live 3 hours from the major metro area so the range increase is valuable. Not impossible without but really helpful to have. Watching all the price bumps has given me more than a little indigestion. One friend suggested leasing to take the "game changer feature" risk away. Delivery dates now 10/2022 so it's a wait no matter what. What's the downside of leasing a Y ? I haven't compared the extra fee's involved. You'd normally have a purchase option at the end as well so seem like it would provide some extra insurance.

There has never been a time when Leasing a Tesla has made sense financially. If you can afford the payments, buy it and sell it later. Residual value after 3 years always beats leasing.

 

[Stook02ss]

MSM MYP OD of 11/5

EDD of 12/11-12/31. Asked for 90 day delay. Earliest EDD now 2/27/22.

Ordering a second MSM MYP in late December/early January, regardless of price. Will then stick on a 90 day delay. Hopefully a new EDD of May/June/July.

If I get a 4680 in my March delivery I will cancel my May/June/July. If I don't, which is likely, I will take delivery of my March car, drive it and sell it in May/June... and take delivery of my May/June/July car....

I may place a third order after receipt of my March vehicle If indeed it obvious my May/June/July vehicle won't have 4680s, but before doing so cancel my May/June/July order.

 

[leetified86]

new to the forum here.

ordered the MYLR in white/black/induction/5 seater/tow with the EDD in June 22' on 11/10.

I filled out the registration and stuff last night and now the EDD is end of March/April.

I'm hoping the new batteries are in production by then......

 

[brandon8387]

MSM MYP OD of 11/5

EDD of 12/11-12/31. Asked for 90 day delay. Earliest EDD now 2/27/22.

Ordering a second MSM MYP in late December/early January, regardless of price. Will then stick on a 90 day delay. Hopefully a new EDD of May/June/July.

If I get a 4680 in my March delivery I will cancel my May/June/July. If I don't, which is likely, I will take delivery of my March car, drive it and sell it in May/June... and take delivery of my May/June/July car....

I may place a third order after receipt of my March vehicle If indeed it obvious my May/June/July vehicle won't have 4680s, but before doing so cancel my May/June/July order.

Why are you so determined to land a 4680 battery to go through all this? why not just order when it’s announced?

 

[brandon8387]

Good to see I'm not alone. We live 3 hours from the major metro area so the range increase is valuable. Not impossible without but really helpful to have. Watching all the price bumps has given me more than a little indigestion. One friend suggested leasing to take the "game changer feature" risk away. Delivery dates now 10/2022 so it's a wait no matter what. What's the downside of leasing a Y ? I haven't compared the extra fee's involved. You'd normally have a purchase option at the end as well so seem like it would provide some extra insurance.

I’m leasing mine cuz buying a EV this early is pointless. Play with the toy for few years then reup. There’s always something new coming. Tesla Hype won’t last forever

 

[Stook02ss]

Why are you so determined to land a 4680 battery to go through all this? why not just order when it’s announced?

Fear of a huge price increase and/or desire to get it asap... but still with the 4680s.

 

[Stook02ss]

Why are you so determined to land a 4680 battery to go through all this? why not just order when it’s announced?

Oh, if you mean why do I care... I feel like the only thing that will leave me with the slightest hint of regret is if I buy right before a major overhaul... the 4680s are just one part of that. There are interior changes, such as the door trim, that I think will be implemented as well as perhaps something new - Austin and Berlin are brand new production lines, if there was ever a good time to rollout a significant number of updates, now would be it.

Don't get me wrong, there are big risks too. The line could have issues, gremlins that need working out, etc.

 

[Stavinski]

There has never been a time when Leasing a Tesla has made sense financially. If you can afford the payments, buy it and sell it later. Residual value after 3 years always beats leasing.

That’s true today. What if some other other manufacturer is making compelling EV’s in 3 years? My bet is with you, but maybe some people are just so wealthy, it’s not the financial sense motivating them. Maybe they would sooner watch the golden globes than sell a car privately.

 

[Stook02ss]

That’s true today. What if some other other manufacturer is making compelling EV’s in 3 years? My bet is with you, but maybe some people are just so wealthy, it’s not the financial sense motivating them. Maybe they would sooner watch the golden globes than sell a car privately.

I think demand will outstrip supply for quite a while, regardless of who makes what. This will be particularly true if an EV tax refund is offered and if Tesla soon triples the size of its EV charging network as suggested.

 

[leoita]

Oh, if you mean why do I care... I feel like the only thing that will leave me with the slightest hint of regret is if I buy right before a major overhaul... the 4680s are just one part of that. There are interior changes, such as the door trim, that I think will be implemented as well as perhaps something new - Austin and Berlin are brand new production lines, if there was ever a good time to rollout a significant number of updates, now would be it.

Don't get me wrong, there are big risks too. The line could have issues, gremlins that need working out, etc.

Yep, I am waiting as well. If I order it now, I gotta feeling the buyers remorse will be around the corner... Regardless if I order now, the vehicle is still months away from the actual delivery. Once the Austin starts rolling these at full capacity, the estimate wait time will decrease dramatically.

 

[Ogre]

That’s true today. What if some other other manufacturer is making compelling EV’s in 3 years? My bet is with you, but maybe some people are just so wealthy, it’s not the financial sense motivating them. Maybe they would sooner watch the golden globes than sell a car privately.

Leasing doesn’t make sense then either because then you have to deal with lease terms. What if you want a new car after a year? Or 18 months? No need for a private sale. Just buy it and trade it in.

 

[RedAggie03]

I ordered a MYLR MSM Gemini Tow 11/10 and the delivery is October 2022 because I didn't get any upgrades. I'm fine with waiting, but I do hope to get some of these new updates. We'll see.

 

[nate704]

I placed my order last week and the EDD shows November 30-December 12, 2021.
I guess no more long wait???

 

[RedAggie03]

I placed my order last week and the EDD shows November 30-December 12, 2021.
I guess no more long wait???

Depends on what you ordered, I'd guess a MYP?

 

[Jones1]

I was holding out for 4680s and finally ordered a Model Y (LR) on 10/28 as it showed delivery in June 2022. Spoke with the Tesla rep and she felt confident about the vehicle coming with 4680s in my delivery timeline. The timeline works for me....and if the rumors prove out regarding new headlights and other improvements in H1 2022, then that would be awesome!

My order got moved up from June 22 to February- March 2022. I’m hoping for the new batteries too.

 

[brandon8387]

My order got moved up from June 22 to February- March 2022. I’m hoping for the new batteries too.

Keep dreaming