Reduced price Autopilot & FSD for existing owners announced March 1st

[phantasms]

I didn't purchase any AP related items but am considering the AP for $2k on my M3. Does AP generally increase resale value on these cars or is like most cars where options don't make much of a difference at all when selling down the line. I wouldn't use the AP terribly often but it somehow seems like a mistake not to grab it for $2k.

Thanks!

Best,
Gene

 

[Rusane]

I didn't purchase any AP related items but am considering the AP for $2k on my M3. Does AP generally increase resale value on these cars or is like most cars where options don't make much of a difference at all when selling down the line. I wouldn't use the AP terribly often but it somehow seems like a mistake not to grab it for $2k.

Thanks!

Best,
Gene

I certainly can’t give any stats, but I would surmise it does increase the resale value, and I would say it does so at probably close to 100% of the price of AP at the time you sell. When I was shopping for a used model s, those with AP were generally priced higher than comparable vehicles without it. Then from my perspective, I mentally added the cost of buying AP to the price of those that didn’t have it, since I kinda wanted it, and that’s the price I would have to pay to get it if the car didn’t already have it. That’s why I say it probably adds close to 100% of the price of AP at the time of the sale; since it’s a software upgrade, any buyer who really wants it will presumably pay for it whether it is already on the car or downloaded after the sale. For buyers who don’t really care, it may serve as a tie breaker between two otherwise identical cars.

 

[neptunesfinest]

I didn't purchase any AP related items but am considering the AP for $2k on my M3. Does AP generally increase resale value on these cars or is like most cars where options don't make much of a difference at all when selling down the line. I wouldn't use the AP terribly often but it somehow seems like a mistake not to grab it for $2k.

Thanks!

Best,
Gene

I’ve been an AP critic but I jumped at it for the current price. I still don’t think it’s as fantastic as others do but the TACC + auto-steer (currently the only useful autopilot features) are definitely worth the $2k. It was never worth $5k imo so this is a great opportunity to get it at a fair price.

 

[dlieu]

i ordered one for 2k too, and i was (am) critical of it too. Subjectively it felt like it handled 580 curves better today than during my month long trial. Not sure, maybe too few miles yet, or maybe cameras are better calibrated now...

Anyhow it seems that 2k version is not the same as the 5k EAP during my EAP trial. Note that they now call it just "autopilot" and navigate-on-AP and summon functionality has been moved to FSD. Simple auto lane change seems to be missing as well. so is autopark. It is basically autosteer + TACC only.

So it seems they watered it down in functionality significantly, not just in price. Not sure if that's done more to justify the price reduction or to create appearance of some substance behind FSD package. Marketing at its best (or worst?)...

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

i ordered one for 2k too, and i was (am) critical of it too. Subjectively it felt like it handled 580 curves better today than during my month long trial. Not sure, maybe too few miles yet, or maybe cameras are better calibrated now...

Anyhow it seems that 2k version is not the same as the 5k EAP during my EAP trial. Note that they now call it just "autopilot" and navigate-on-AP and summon functionality has been moved to FSD. Simple line change assist seems to be missing as well. It is autosteer + TACC only.

So it seems they watered it down in functionality significantly, not just in price. Not sure if that's done more to justify the price reduction or to create appearance of some substance behind FSD package. Marketing at its best (or worst?)...

With EAP they were running out of things to fail to deliver on, and they were running out of processing space to do things with HW2.5.

They needed to grow the package so the best way was to move the things they wanted to improve upon onto FSD, and move the things they had nailed down to AP.

That made it easy to have AP run either on HW2.5 (existing cars) or HW3 (future cars)

Where FSD would require HW3, and people who pay for FSD will get the HW3 upgrade.

Personally I think it was a great move as allowed people who wanted something concrete/finished to get AP, and people who wanted the journey towards self driving to get FSD.

 

[Mod3forMe]

As pointed out to you many many times by now, the assurance FSD includes any needed HW upgrades to make FSD features work, including HW3, is available in writing, from the CEO of the company, and he was written same, clearly and consistently, many times, going back to like 2017.

You can also hear audio of the same promise being made on Teslas own website by listening to the Q3 2018 investor call.

Given your inability to remember these basic and well established facts I'd definitely encourage you to invest in as many driver assistance features as you can possibly acquire

Sorry my mistake. If Elon has promised it then we should trust him rather than want it in writing. After all Elon has made good on everything he has said to date.

Now we all may get hardware upgrades some day, but it baffles me why they would not include this in the description when you buy FSD and on your bill of sale, as it would be a selling feature.

 

[bryan995]

I did not enjoy the comment re. having FSD feature complete by the end of year, followed by testing and then working to have approval for use. This makes it seems like any useful FSD features are multiple multiple years out. Thoughts ?

 

[Knightshade]

Sorry my mistake. If Elon has promised it then we should trust him rather than want it in writing.

Except, as already explained to you like 20 times now, it is in writing, many many times, directly from the CEO of the company

So your mistake continues to be ongoing in thinking otherwise.

Now we all may get hardware upgrades some day, but it baffles me why they would not include this in the description when you buy FSD and on your bill of sale, as it would be a selling feature.

It absolutely wouldn't be a "selling feature"

it'd be one of the following:

A) To consumers who know a lot about the cars- it'd just confirm a fact they've been aware of for years now. FSD purchase includes AP computer upgrades if they are needed to enable FSD features.

B) To consumers who know nothing about the cars- it'd confuse them because they'd start asking "Wait, why am I buying a car that 'needs' an upgrade? Maybe I should just NOT buy one yet...." which is bad for Tesla.


Anybody who cares already knows (unless they simply refuse to accept 100% of documented facts going back years like yourself). Anybody else is more likely to be confused than informed by mentioning it.


There's no upside whatsoever to them making a huge point about the upgrade being part of FSD.


See also how Tesla has moved totally away from using HW specs as model designations- They don't want to confuse their increasingly broader base of customers with HW questions- they're focusing instead on functionality.

if you happen to need HW to enable functionality you've already paid for- you'll get it, free. As the company has consistently told the public since at least 2017.

 

[Knightshade]

I did not enjoy the comment re. having FSD feature complete by the end of year, followed by testing and then working to have approval for use. This makes it seems like any useful FSD features are multiple multiple years out. Thoughts ?

My thought is you didn't listen to what he actually said.

tl;dr version is FSD will be feature complete end of year- but due to waiting on regulators it'll be a level 2 system (driver is still responsible and needs to be paying attention).

The next year will be a ton of data collection of the miles driven with those features enabled, but monitored by drivers, so that by end of 2020 Tesla hopes to have enough data showing the system is safe enough for L3 or higher they can use that to get national regulation allowing it.


(currently some states would allow even L5, some would not- this is a mess since it'd require Tesla to enable/disable systems every time you crossed state lines)

 

[Mod3forMe]

Except, as already explained to you like 20 times now, it is in writing, many many times, directly from the CEO of the company

So your mistake continues to be ongoing in thinking otherwise.



It absolutely wouldn't be a "selling feature"

it'd be one of the following:

A) To consumers who know a lot about the cars- it'd just confirm a fact they've been aware of for years now. FSD purchase includes AP computer upgrades if they are needed to enable FSD features.

B) To consumers who know nothing about the cars- it'd confuse them because they'd start asking "Wait, why am I buying a car that 'needs' an upgrade? Maybe I should just NOT buy one yet...." which is bad for Tesla.


Anybody who cares already knows (unless they simply refuse to accept 100% of documented facts going back years like yourself). Anybody else is more likely to be confused than informed by mentioning it.


There's no upside whatsoever to them making a huge point about the upgrade being part of FSD.


See also how Tesla has moved totally away from using HW specs as model designations- They don't want to confuse their increasingly broader base of customers with HW questions- they're focusing instead on functionality.

if you happen to need HW to enable functionality you've already paid for- you'll get it, free. As the company has consistently told the public since at least 2017.

We can go in circles on this for ever. I totally acknowledge that Elon has said on Twitter that HW3 will be included for those who have FSD. My point is Elon's Twitter and interview statements have been false on multiple occasions.

Depending on jurisdiction the courts have not still figured out the boundaries of what comments on twitter are legally binding and what are not. This particular become more complicated when you you have a bill of sale that contradicts or is silent on the promises said on twitter and elsewhere.

Anyhow lets check back in a year or two or five and see how this all plays out.

 

[Knightshade]

We can go in circles on this for ever. I totally acknowledge that Elon has said on Twitter that HW3 will be included for those who have FSD. My point is Elon's Twitter and interview statements have been false on multiple occasions.

Can you cite when he has promised a specific, physical, deliverable for a customer who buys a specific product from Tesla, that such a customer might condition their decision to purchase on, and that promise turned out to be false? If this has happened on multiple occasions that should be easy.

There's a WORLD of difference between "We plan to drive a car autonomously coast to coast by the end of the year!" and "If you pay us money for X, you will get Y included"

 

[TorqueIt]

Has anyone who ordered Autopilot since last week (and received the note that they will receive the update within “3 days”) received their software update?

I ordered on Monday and it’s been 4 days now, and I’m F5-ing constantly to check for the update.

I also have not received any email confirmation, but my credit card has been charged.

 

[dlieu]

Has anyone who ordered Autopilot since last week (and received the note that they will receive the update within “3 days”) received their software update?

I ordered on Monday and it’s been 4 days now, and I’m F5-ing constantly to check for the update.

I also have not received any email confirmation, but my credit card has been charged.

yes i did. i did not receive any email receipt of the transaction or changes in online car profile, but the AP was enabled some time mid day the next day of the charge. 4 days sounds like more than it should have taken.

 

[neptunesfinest]

Has anyone who ordered Autopilot since last week (and received the note that they will receive the update within “3 days”) received their software update?

I ordered on Monday and it’s been 4 days now, and I’m F5-ing constantly to check for the update.

I also have not received any email confirmation, but my credit card has been charged.

Have you connected to WiFi?

 

[TorqueIt]

Have you connected to WiFi?

Yes I have. In fact 1 day after I made the purchase I received an update but it ended up being the Sentry mode update.

 

[Mod3forMe]

Can you cite when he has promised a specific, physical, deliverable for a customer who buys a specific product from Tesla, that such a customer might condition their decision to purchase on, and that promise turned out to be false? If this has happened on multiple occasions that should be easy.

There's a WORLD of difference between "We plan to drive a car autonomously coast to coast by the end of the year!" and "If you pay us money for X, you will get Y included"

Assume you don't want to include all the false promises to investors? ie "If you buy our stock we with deliver x"? T

But hey let's go big picture - what promises did he make as to when and how many Model 3 would delivered? Tesla failed to meet those numbers in a big way. How many people paid upfront based on those numbers?

I get you are a fan of Elon, but the evidence of him overpromising and under delivering is pretty huge. I don't think Elon is a man of his word at least not in a responsible way. I think he says things he hopes to be true, but not things he knows are true.

His latest promise that full self driving will be ready by year end I think is complete and utter garbage though. But all along Elon has played fast and loose with Full Self Driving is.

 

[Knightshade]

Assume you don't want to include all the false promises to investors? ie "If you buy our stock we with deliver x"? T

But hey let's go big picture - what promises did he make as to when and how many Model 3 would delivered? Tesla failed to meet those numbers in a big way. How many people paid upfront based on those numbers?

Anyway, back in reality, Teslas original promise for S/X/3 production was 500,000 cars, total, by 2020.

They're going to surpass that goal in 2019.

They did later move the 2020 date up as they got more optimistic, and ran into some issues with hitting that..... but even then got most of the way to the updated goal anyway, and will beat the original one.


But I can't think of anybody who bought a physical product from Tesla based on their years-in-advance hoped production figures...nor does the promise cover a specific thing he promised that they're just NOT delivering at all.... so your example kinda sucks.

I get you are a fan of Elon

I'm really not, actually.

I think he's a great vision guy, but totally sucks at day to day operational things and that his ego causes huge problems in this regard.

That said- again- I've yet to see him outright lie about planning to deliver a physical product he's taking someones money for.

And you seem pretty short on any examples of that actual thing too.

, but the evidence of him overpromising and under delivering is pretty huge. I don't think Elon is a man of his word at least not in a responsible way. I think he says things he hopes to be true, but not things he knows are true.

Do you seriously not see the difference between "We hope to make X number of cars by Y date" and "If you buy X, you will receive this physical good when it's ready"?

Because clearly, factually, and even legally, those are miles apart.

His latest promise that full self driving will be ready by year end I think is complete and utter garbage though.

Good thing he didn't actually say that, huh?

He said it'll be "feature complete" end of year... and then require human oversight. That is- a level 2 system that works outside of divided highways. That's not entirely unreasonable. And says nothing about it working perfectly by any means.

And that it'd be another year to gather data/fine tune on how safe/effective it is. Also reasonable given the # of miles the fleet will drive in a year by then. That said I'm vastly less optimistic it'll be safe-in-all-situations after that testing/refinement time. I mean vastly by a lot.

And then it'll be up to regulators to judge if it's safe enough to go hands-off. Also reasonable with the same caveat as the 2nd thing.


Don't get me wrong, he's made a lot of wildly optimistic predictions about targets for various driver automation tasks... but let's not jump ahead of his actual claim this time eh?

 

[Glamisduner]

IMO Tesla will want to give HW3 with FSD purchases. They want to collect data to improve their new in house processor system not write updates for legacy code!

This is why I have little doubt FSD purchasers will get HW3 right about the time they start stopsign/light recognition (features not included with EAP). I think the hardware upgrade rollout will actually be before the updates start rolling out, however this could be wrong since they could start rolling out the software to newer cars that already have the hardware first. Tesla tends to favor newer purchasers over past ones that pre-order.

Over time the highest cost of software isn't the initial development it's the maintenance of the product. It sounds to me like they already have working versions of advanced summon and are flushing out the final bit. They feel they will be able to continue to improve the EAP package over time on the 2.5 hardware. However there may be additional improvements to HW3 for these same feature over time if they hit any limitations on 2.5 hardware. That does not mean the features don't work on 2.5 just that they may get an edge on HW3 as they optimize the code and unlock higher resolutions etc from the cameras. For instance, perhaps the dashcam will record at a higher resolution eventually on the HW3, but not on HW 2.5.

For Additional FSD features, they are probably using their in house chip for primary development, potentially with ported code for the old hardware to run on the new (It would still likely run faster), then they will be able to optimize the old code over time. If they had to develop everything for two platforms that can make the work twice as hard. They are using agile software processes and multiple teams hence the continual updates.

Combine my thoughts plus Elon's multiple tweets, and there is little doubt that FSD will not use the new hardware. They simply need to use up their supply of old hardware before switching to the new hardware, which has likely been complete for a little while already.

 

[rjmcinnis]

Since several of you are discussing it, I wanted to ask for clarification about the wording Elon used during the Y reveal by people who have been following Tesla stuff much longer than me (Just ordered a car last week).

Unless I heard it wrong, it REALLY sounded like he said FSD would be "Software Only" by the end of the year. That leads me to question whether the HW3 would actually be provided free to current/past buyers? I'm hoping I just didn't understand exactly what he was saying.

BTW-I know this is my first post, but I promise it's not trolling.

 

[Knightshade]

On the Q3 2018 earnings call discussing HW3-

there's no need to wait till it comes out because it's just a very simple plug-and-play change to get the full-self driving. And anyone who is paid for self-driving option, we'll just get it done for free

Also on Tesla earnings call-

the only thing that needs to change between cars used today and cars produced in the second quarter of next year is swapping the autopilot computer. And this is a simple change that takes less than half an hour"

When asked about if just computer changes in HW3 or sensors as well-

No change to sensors. This is simple replacement of the Autopilot computer. Will be done free of charge for those who ordered full self-driving

When asked about the pricing on FSD-

it will come with HW3 upgrade long-term

Answering a statement of " every purchase of the FSD package includes an update to HW3" we have

Correct

And yet...

MAN I AM JUST NOT SURE IF HW3 COMES WITH BUYING FSD OR NOT I WISH SOMEONE WOULD MAKE IT CLEAR