Reduced price Autopilot & FSD for existing owners announced March 1st

[Knightshade]

Since several of you are discussing it, I wanted to ask for clarification about the wording Elon used during the Y reveal by people who have been following Tesla stuff much longer than me (Just ordered a car last week).

Unless I heard it wrong, it REALLY sounded like he said FSD would be "Software Only" by the end of the year. That leads me to question whether the HW3 would actually be provided free to current/past buyers? I'm hoping I just didn't understand exactly what he was saying.

BTW-I know this is my first post, but I promise it's not trolling.

Already discussed in another thread.

Primarily though he's making the point, since many speculated the Y would reveal a changed sensor suite for FSD, that that's not the case- they're continuing with the current sensors used on S/3/X, and thus it's all software in the future.

Enabling that software, as he's already explained a number of times, will require a quick AP computer swap that is done for free to anyone who bought FSD.

But it's not like the Y will suddenly come with LIDAR or something and obsolete all the HW2.x sensor cars out there.

 

[rjmcinnis]

On the Q3 2018 earnings call discussing HW3-


Also on Tesla earnings call-




When asked about if just computer changes in HW3 or sensors as well-


When asked about the pricing on FSD-


Answering a statement of " every purchase of the FSD package includes an update to HW3" we have




And yet...

I looked up several of your quotes a few days ago and agree it sounds like it's included. But did you listen to the reveal last night? Did I missunderstand him, or is he backtracking? Because I've also seen other references that said HW3 would be included if NECESSARY to achieve FSD. My concern would be if they achieves FSD on current hardware, then HW3 won't come free. At that point, current owners would miss out on any improvements the headroom allows on top of FSD.

Does my concern make sense?

 

[rjmcinnis]

Already discussed in another thread.

Primarily though he's making the point, since many speculated the Y would reveal a changed sensor suite for FSD, that that's not the case- they're continuing with the current sensors used on S/3/X, and thus it's all software in the future.

Enabling that software, as he's already explained a number of times, will require a quick AP computer swap that is done for free to anyone who bought FSD.

But it's not like the Y will suddenly come with LIDAR or something and obsolete all the HW2.x sensor cars out there.

Looks like you replied to me while I was replying to you, lol.

I tried looking for a thread specific to this question earlier today before I asked it here but couldn't find it, so if you know exactly where it is, I would really appreciate a link. Thanks in advance. Don't want to sidetrack this thread with my question.

 

[Knightshade]

I looked up several of your quotes a few days ago and agree it sounds like it's included. But did you listen to the reveal last night? Did I missunderstand him, or is he backtracking? Because I've also seen other references that said HW3 would be included if NECESSARY to achieve FSD. My concern would be if they achieves FSD on current hardware, then HW3 won't come free. At that point, current owners would miss out on any improvements the headroom allows on top of FSD.

Does my concern make sense?

Not really to be honest.

if they could have done FSD on 2.5 they wouldn't have wasted years and a ton of money developing HW3 in the first place.

HW2.x is incapable of processing all the cameras at full frame rate. You can't do full self driving if a significant chunk of your available data can't even be processed by the system.


Going back to the Q2 earnings call Elon mentioned they anticipated a while ago the 2.x computer wouldn't get the job done, and that's why they designed it for easy plug and play replacement with HW3-

It costs the same as our current hardware and we anticipated that this would have to be replaced, this replacement, which is why we made it easy to switch out the computer, and that’s all that needs to be done. All the connectors are compatible, and you get an order of magnitude, more processing and you can run all the cameras at primary full resolution with the complex neural net.

 

[TANGO SUKKA]

I looked up several of your quotes a few days ago and agree it sounds like it's included. But did you listen to the reveal last night? Did I missunderstand him, or is he backtracking? Because I've also seen other references that said HW3 would be included if NECESSARY to achieve FSD. My concern would be if they achieves FSD on current hardware, then HW3 won't come free. At that point, current owners would miss out on any improvements the headroom allows on top of FSD.

Does my concern make sense?

that's so far out most of us will just buy a new car by then.

 

[Nycinpolk]

Just pulled the trigger, after seeing the price of self driving and auto pilot on the Y. I decided I might as well pay 5k since it’s a great deal for both on my M3!

 

[Eno Deb]

I looked up several of your quotes a few days ago and agree it sounds like it's included. But did you listen to the reveal last night? Did I missunderstand him, or is he backtracking? Because I've also seen other references that said HW3 would be included if NECESSARY to achieve FSD. My concern would be if they achieves FSD on current hardware, then HW3 won't come free. At that point, current owners would miss out on any improvements the headroom allows on top of FSD.

Does my concern make sense?

I think it does. The problem is that Tesla has significantly lowered the bar. All you are currently promised explicitly when buying the FSD package is things that either already run on the current hardware (NoA, Summon, Autopark), or are likely to run on it in some form (traffic light and sign recognition, and "automatic driving on city streets"). We know that they were capable of recognizing structures like light poles, traffic lights and signs months ago (see this video). Recognizing the state of traffic lights is only a small step from there. "Automatic driving on city streets" can mean many things; you can already use EAP on city streets today.

So, I think it is not unreasonable to assume that they can implement the currently promised FSD features on HW2.5 to a degree that allows them to claim they have met their obligations. Then the question becomes: what is their incentive to go beyond the minimum they have to do and retrofit existing cars with new hardware at a cost that could easily run in the tens or even hundreds of millions? They already have your money, so if they happen to be in a situation where cash is tight, my guess is that the retrofits would have a very low priority for them.

 

[Knightshade]

I think it does. The problem is that Tesla has significantly lowered the bar. All you are currently promised explicitly when buying the FSD package is things that either already run on the current hardware (NoA, Summon, Autopark), or are likely to run on it in some form (traffic light and sign recognition, and "automatic driving on city streets"). We know that they were capable of recognizing structures like light poles, traffic lights and signs months ago (see this video). Recognizing the state of traffic lights is only a small step from there. "Automatic driving on city streets" can mean many things; you can already use EAP on city streets today.

yeah- none of that is true or correct.

HW2.5 doesn't even read speed limit signs (something HW1 did) because it's already about maxxed out for what it can handle.

The 2.5 computer already can't do its current functions fully reliably- both because it's incapable of processing all the cameras at the same time at full frame rate, and because it's incapable of running a larger neutral net.

It certainly can't reliable handling driving on city streets by itself (which is why the owners manual explicitly tells you not to use EAP that way)

Again- do people think they just spent a ton of time and money developing HW3 because they did not know they needed it for FSD?

So, I think it is not unreasonable to assume that they can implement the currently promised FSD features on HW2.5 to a degree that allows them to claim they have met their obligations.

It's completely unreasonable to think that, given how often they've mentioned 2.5 already being about maxxed out on capability and most of the "new" features being far more complex.

Then the question becomes: what is their incentive to go beyond the minimum they have to do and retrofit existing cars with new hardware at a cost that could easily run in the tens or even hundreds of millions?

I'll take "totally nonsense numbers you made up" for $200 alex.

They already have your money, so if they happen to be in a situation where cash is tight, my guess is that the retrofits would have a very low priority for them.

It's get pretty high when they have to defend lawsuits over the fact they repeatedly and explicitly committed to HW3 upgrades int he same timeframe as new FSD features.

Plus- as exhaustively explained, once they're already mass producing HW3 (which they will be doing for hundreds of thousands of new cars a year) producing a tiny fraction more for 2.x FSD owners will be a trivial cost.

Most of the cost is in the R&D- which is already sunk. Not the marginal cost to make a few more of the boards.

 

[Eno Deb]

yeah- none of that is true or correct.

May I ask what qualifications you have to make such bold statements?

It certainly can't reliable handling driving on city streets by itself

Navigate on Autopilot isn't reliable either, which doesn't prevent Tesla from declaring it "FSD".

Again- do people think they just spent a ton of time and money developing HW3 because they did not know they needed it for FSD?

Which FSD exactly? The boiled down one that is promised to current FSD purchasers, or perhaps an improved, more reliable version that will only be available on future cars? You may want to ask owners of AP1 cars what they think about it.

I'll take "totally nonsense numbers you made up" for $200 alex.

Let's assume of the >500,000 Teslas currently on the road just 10% have the FSD package, and lets further assume optimistically that the total cost of retrofitting an old car with HW3 is $1000 including hardware and labor. That already makes $50 million, assuming their already overstretched service organization can even handle 50,000 upgrades.

It's get pretty high when they have to defend lawsuits over the fact they repeatedly and explicitly committed to HW3 upgrades int he same timeframe as new FSD features.

They made plenty of promises that never materialized (e.g. for AP1), and they got away with it.

 

[dave999z]

Again- do people think they just spent a ton of time and money developing HW3 because they did not know they needed it for FSD?

There is still value to developing HW3 regardless of whether they can foresee the exact computational requirements of FSD and limits of HW2. They’re certainly going to use HW3 capability for something at some point.

We get that you’re convinced. You should get that some aren’t convinced, and not because you’re smart and see reality and they’re dumb and crazy. Everyone sees the same evidence you’ve cited 10 times. Many agree with you. But others don’t; they interpret that evidence differently as a whole. There’s no question the definition of FSD is fluid, that Tesla doesn’t promise HW3 clearly at the web point of purchase (which should increase the take rate, which presumably they would want), and that Elon made an odd statement last night. It’s all clear to you. That’s great so be comfortable with your purchase. But you are a bit dismissive of and aggressive toward anyone who isn’t as confident as you are that Tesla will not wiggle out of a “promise” that they’ve admittedly been pretty clear about in several contexts. I put that in quotes because there’s basically nothing contractually promised to FSD purchasers (no precise what, no when at all).

 

[juanmedina]

I bought AP recently for $2000 but without auto lane changing it kind of sucks because you have to disengage AP to change lanes. I can see that AP has improved vs when I had the trial EAP about 3 months ago. There were a couple places where EAP would struggle that are now a non issue with AP. I am trying to convince myself to spend the $3000 bucks.

 

[Knightshade]

May I ask what qualifications you have to make such bold statements?

A basic reading of known facts?

Navigate on Autopilot isn't reliable either, which doesn't prevent Tesla from declaring it "FSD".

An existing one, yes. That's the point. If 2.5 doesn't do all the existing ones reliably it certainly can't ALSO do NEW ones.

That is, in fact why tesla bothered to develop HW3

So the idea they can just do FSD with 2.5 makes 0 sense in light of all known facts.

Which FSD exactly? The boiled down one that is promised to current FSD purchasers, or perhaps an improved, more reliable version that will only be available on future cars?

Either. 2.5 can't fully meet either set of features.

You may want to ask owners of AP1 cars what they think about it.

Why? FSD was never offered for AP1.

And the split with mobileye wasn't originally in the plan- that, again, is part of why HW3 exists as an in-house solution- Tesla never again wanted to get pantsed by a partner breaking up with them.

Let's assume of the >500,000 Teslas currently on the road just 10% have the FSD package, and lets further assume optimistically that the total cost of retrofitting an old car with HW3 is $1000 including hardware and labor. That already makes $50 million

A few problems here... 10% take rate is probably not far off based on the 2017 #s someone previously posted... but a lot of those 500k cars can't be included since they're AP1 (or no AP)...so we're already well off on needing 50k upgrades.

Next, there is 0 chance the production cost of HW3 (the physical part, not amortizing R&D) is anywhere near $1000.

Again this was discussed in some detail previously with members here who know a fair bit about such production.

See again the "you just making up numbers" thing.

(and labor is 30 minutes to do the swap per Elon on the Q2 investor call... likely can even be done by rangers since it wouldn't need a lift, so that's pretty negligible)

They made plenty of promises that never materialized (e.g. for AP1), and they got away with it.

I'm unaware of any physical deliverable they ever promised as part of the AP1 purchase that was not delivered.

Can you specifically cite one?

 

[dave999z]

“If 2.5 doesn’t do all the existing ones reliably it certainly can’t ALSO do NEW ones”

They’ve been improving EAP all year with software updates.

 

[Knightshade]

There is still value to developing HW3 regardless of whether they can foresee the exact computational requirements of FSD and limits of HW2. They’re certainly going to use HW3 capability for something at some point.

We get that you’re convinced. You should get that some aren’t convinced, and not because you’re smart and see reality and they’re dumb and crazy.

No, that really seems to be the reason... sorry


The original archetect of HW3, Jim Keller, also designed the AMD Athlon and K8 CPUs, designed the x86-64 instruction set, and developed the chips used in several generations of iphones/ipads...the other primary guy who worked on it Pete Bannon also developed multiple CPUs for Apple and holds a ton of microprocessor patents... they seem to think FSD needs HW3.

I'm gonna take their word on that over "random internet guy who just isn't convinced no matter what evidence he is given"


Especially when we know for a fact HW2.5 is incapable of handling the full framerate of the 8 cameras on the car.

So I can't think of any reason anybody thinks FSD will work with crippled input processing that doesn't involve dumb or crazy.

can you?

Th
Everyone sees the same evidence you’ve cited 10 times. Many agree with you. But others don’t; they interpret that evidence differently as a whole.

Yeah, I get it... there's folks who think vaccines are bad for you too and the earth is flat, they're also wrong. And should be told so at every opportunity.

Th
There’s no question the definition of FSD is fluid, that Tesla doesn’t promise HW3 clearly at the web point of purchase (which should increase the take rate, which presumably they would want)

Wait- I thought you said everyone already knew the points I had presented?

because one of them is why that's wrong.

Tesla has been very clear about moving away, as much as possible, from confusing new, less tech-saavy, customers with geting into the weeds on hardware specs.

it's why they're moving strongly away from model designations based on battery size (because Joe Camry Owner doesn't care about "X kwh battery" and just going by "long range" or "short range".

Likewise they're not going to want to confuse a potential buyer, who might not buy the entire car with wording about "this will get you a free AP computer upgrade in a few months when it becomes standard on Teslas" because he'd rather wait until it already comes in the car.... (or otherwise confuses him).


That's one of the things Elon himself mentioned several times when clarifying the upgrade was free and no need to wait to those who knew HW3 existed and asked (and anybody like that can easily find the same assurances in 5 minutes).

But leaving it off the order page avoids confusing the folks who don't know (or care) WTF HW3 is- they just know they want FSD features. And Tesla will insure they get the HW needed for it if they buy it (as they've always promised to do)

, and that Elon made an odd statement last night.

He really didn't.

He said FSD would be coming in software.

Software he's previously stated requires HW3.

Thus all the new cars coming with it just get OTA updates... but HW2.x cars will need HW3 to get/use that FSD software- and will get it free. As he's repeatedly made clear, as recently as last week, many many times.

But you are a bit dismissive of and aggressive toward anyone who isn’t as confident as you are that Tesla will not wiggle out of a “promise” that they’ve admittedly been pretty clear about in several contexts. I put that in quotes because there’s basically nothing contractually promised to FSD purchasers (no precise what, no when at all).

I mean, except for where they are precisely promised to get the HW3 autopilot computer for free if they bought FSD.

Repeatedly, specifically, promised that.

So again seeing a statement like you just made, when you claim the folks who disagree with the facts "know" those facts- it really doesn't seem like it.

Might Tesla miss the stated target date? Sure. Probably will. They miss target dates all the time.

But as I've asked over and over, and nobody has had an answer for- when have they taken someones money with a promise of a physical deliverable and then simply refused to provide the deliverable

Not "be late with it", but just say "naah, we keep the money, you don't get the thing"

 

[Nopantz]

Is anyone having trouble getting their $2k AP for free? I

took delivery on a M3 on Feb 26, 2 days before the drop, and my sales advisor says I'd get the AP for free. I wasn't super excited until I understand I can also buy the FSD for $3k more (presumably $7k if I want it later). My Tesla account shows AP avail for $2k and FSB for another $3k. I've asked my sales advisor to submit a case to have AP added, which supposedly only requires low level approval, so I can then buy FSD for $3k (instead of 2k+3k it wants to charge me now). It is still in process and I'm concerned it won't clear before Monday when supposedly the prices will go up.

Anyone else having trouble?

 

[Skelly]

I took delivery of my M3 in August 2018 with EAP. I just purchased the $2k FSD addon.

For what it's worth, here is the response I got from Tesla when I asked exactly what I get for my $2k.

"Thank you for reaching out to us to help address your questions for the FSD upgrade. At this time, It has not been confirmed on whether or not the FSD upgrade is going to include HW3. If you already have Enhanced Autopilot, then you already have all of the features that come with the newly released FSD package - minus upcoming and future FSD features that will be added. The first FSD features that you would be receiving with this upgrade are traffic light recognition and stop sign recognition, which have been announced to be getting released later this year. "

 

[Eno Deb]

I took delivery of my M3 in August 2018 with EAP. I just purchased the $2k FSD addon.

For what it's worth, here is the response I got from Tesla when I asked exactly what I get for my $2k.

"Thank you for reaching out to us to help address your questions for the FSD upgrade. At this time, It has not been confirmed on whether or not the FSD upgrade is going to include HW3. If you already have Enhanced Autopilot, then you already have all of the features that come with the newly released FSD package - minus upcoming and future FSD features that will be added. The first FSD features that you would be receiving with this upgrade are traffic light recognition and stop sign recognition, which have been announced to be getting released later this year. "

Well, the list of vague and contradictory statements keeps growing. But it's good that you go into it with open eyes. Hope it works out for you and the other guys who were confident enough to pull the trigger.

 

[Zoglog]

On the Q3 2018 earnings call discussing HW3-


Also on Tesla earnings call-




When asked about if just computer changes in HW3 or sensors as well-


When asked about the pricing on FSD-


Answering a statement of " every purchase of the FSD package includes an update to HW3" we have




And yet...

Yes because consumers should get their purchasing knowledge from investor earnings call and not proper communication channels

 

[dave999z]

@Knightshade I’m convinced based on your unassailable facts and reasoning.

Actually, I didn’t need convincing but thought I’d take a stab at your trolling anyway. Can’t convince you to even be respectful of others much less acknowledge reasonable minds can differ. Anyway, don’t care. Enjoy your next 25 posts shouting people down on this issue you seem weirdly obsessed with.

 

[Rusane]

Has anyone who ordered Autopilot since last week (and received the note that they will receive the update within “3 days”) received their software update?

I ordered on Monday and it’s been 4 days now, and I’m F5-ing constantly to check for the update.

I also have not received any email confirmation, but my credit card has been charged.

Mine was active in less than 48 hours. No receipt/email or notification. It was just working on my way home from work one day.