Maybe. But we've been hearing this for 15 years now and the scary big bad auto has pretty much fallen down while Tesla ramped up to over a million cars a year and is doubling that production next year.
GM has been chasing them for 5+ years and they have just recalled every single EV they have ever produced.
Nissan's Leaf has been on the market for more than 10 years and was the #1 selling EV in the US for a while and now it's barely in 5th place with Tesla selling 20x more cars per quarter.
BMW has been trying for 5+ years and managed to produce a weird city car nobody bought. The Model 3 trounced the BMW 3 Series and it's entire category even without incentives. The Model Y is trashing BMW's lucrative luxury compact SUV.
VW has had EVs for 6+ years...
How many million cars do you let Tesla sell before you get "Serious" about EVs?
Right now it seems like big auto is more focused on short term gains than they are on pushing into the future. They let Tesla steal a huge amount of market share... and not just "EV" market share. Tesla dominates the premium sedan market (total, not just EV) and are quickly losing the mid-high end compact SUV market to Tesla as well.
I'm sure big auto is going to spend billions chasing Tesla, but Tesla has had 15 years of aggressive spending on R&D and building out infrastructure. Ford promised to spend $30 billion over the next 8 years on EV research... Tesla is likely to outspend that by a good margin.
Paint me skeptical, Ford needs to spend a lot more than that and a lot more aggressively. Very very soon, EVs are going to be the best vehicles in every bracket and companies still selling ICE are going to be left holding the bag.
(Sorry for the rant)
You aren't ranting but perhaps I wasn't clear since I was by no means knocking Tesla. I would consider a 25% market share in 5 years a success, given the new entrants in the quickly growing market and the incentives that will likely add fuel to the market (or should I say electrons?).
Here is how I came up with my earlier estimate (let's just use the US for now).
1. Total US market for vehicle sales - 17.2M (2018)
2. Total EV New Vehicle Sales - ~400,000 (2020), this is the number I'm most unsure about and iss somewhere around 2.4% of new car sales
3. Total Tesla Sales - 235,000 (2020) so let's say 300,000 today, so that is 75% market share in EV segment but between 2-3% of the total US market.
4. Typical time to bring a new car to market - 5 years
5. My own estimate for when the majority of automotive companies started taking Tesla seriously - 2019, after it was clear that Tesla can make a mass market car. So we will likely see cars from most manufacturers in this space by 2024.
6. Total mass market EV cars on the market with 200+ mile range when the Model 3 was released - 1 (I think it was only the model 3)
7. Total mass market EV cars on the market with 200+ mile range this year - Just a quick count of non-luxury offerings I came up with 8.
8. EV Market projections - one source says 1,210,000 in 2026 (5 years from now) which I think is very pessimistic and probably the low end or most peoples projections.
Let's say the total vehicle market in the US reaches 20 million by 2026 and EVs make up 40% that would put the EV market at 8,000,000 vehicles. Now if Tesla's market share is 25% they would be selling 2,000,000 per year which actually puts them in the realm of Toyota in the total market not just EVs.
Another point, I don't think Tesla wants to be everything for everyone in the automobile market so other players are needed. There will be some segments where Tesla is by far the leader, like the premium/near-luxury segment they participate in today and some segments where they won't sell anything like perhaps the mini-van segment.
Here are a few sources I've been using:
Two American brands held some of the largest US auto market shares in 2023, each at 13 percent or over. Toyota Motor Corporation ranked second.
www.statista.com
According to data provided by IHS Markit, battery-electric vehicle registrations reached a record market share of 1.8% in 2020. Plug-in hybrids were excluded from the report. US vs China & Europe Earlier, news reached us that Europe had overtaken China as the biggest EV market in the world with...
www.globalfleet.com
Tesla & Other EV Sales — Global & Country by Country This page is dedicated to sharing recent highlights of Tesla sales in various markets and market segments. Some sales charts are below, but more charts are included in the associated articles. World #1 Tesla Model 3 = 14% of ... [continued]
cleantechnica.com
Get the latest on new Tesla models including spy shots, first drives, in-depth reviews, concept car photos, new features and more.
insideevs.com
Tesla is the leading producer of plug-in electric vehicles globally. Its Model 3 has become the world's best-selling all-electric vehicle model.
www.statista.com
Tesla owns almost 79% of the electric car market in the US, according to registration data, but that needs to...
electrek.co