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Rumor: HW4 can support up to 13 cameras

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It's an unsubstantiated rumor at this point so take it with a big grain of salt. But do we believe it?

I think it has a ring of truth to it. It would make sense for Tesla to upgrade the cameras at some point. Furthermore, other companies like Mobileye are using 12 cameras. So I could definitely see Tesla making a move to 13 cameras.

I've also noticed FSD Beta creep forward hesitantly a lot on the roads I drive which would suggest the current camera placement is not quite enough. So adding cameras would make sense IMO.
at what point does it make any difference for the purpose of driving?
 
A) Turns out you can get to L4 either with current HW (highly highly highly unlikely) or with can-be-upgraded-on-current-fleet HW (ie swapping in HW4, and/or some camera retrofits that are not totally impractical for existing cars).

In this case I expect both pre and post 3/19 buyers to get the same stuff delivered to them, even though post 3/19 buyers aren't technically owed that.... because the cost would be minor to Tesla compared to the upside of getting massive increase in take rate from existing fleet.


or

B) Turns out you CAN NOT get to L4 either with current HW or with any reasonable retrofit of current cars. In that case I'd expect pre 3/19 buyers getting a full or near-full refund... and post 3/19 buyers would not.



There's basically only 2 reasons anyone has presented for the language change 3/19 that hold up to any scruitiny, and both are consistent with my thinking above:

1) The change let Tesla recognize a greater % of FSD revenue earlier than otherwise (and 100% of it once they deliver L2 city streets)

2) The change significantly limited Teslas refund liability if it turns out they can't get to L4 with current fleet.

The answer is C, and the reasons for the language change are correct.

C only differs from B in a slight, but meaningful way. Option C assumes Tesla will be total jerks where they will only give refunds to people willing to give up FSD, and this would mean giving up Autosteer on City Streets. Most customers won't opt to give up Autosteer on City Streets just to get a near-full refund of $3K. I can't see getting Autosteer on City Streets plus a refund for the very thing that gave me Autosteer on City streets even though that's not what they said it would be.

This doesn't exclude options D, E, F, G, H, I, J, etc. :)

Ultimately its in Tesla's best interest to convert FSD owners (regardless of purchase date) to FSD subscribers.

I can't wait for the new HW just to see how Tesla plays it.

My proposal to Tesla is to give FSD owners a good length of FSD Subscription months on a trade in to a newer model with HW4. Something way in excess of $12K worth.

That way it seems like a deal to all, but the most stubborn of owners.
 
The answer is C, and the reasons for the language change are correct.

C only differs from B in a slight, but meaningful way. Option C assumes Tesla will be total jerks where they will only give refunds to people willing to give up FSD, and this would mean giving up Autosteer on City Streets. Most customers won't opt to give up Autosteer on City Streets just to get a near-full refund of $3K.

Given the current state of it, testing it every time I drive, I'd happily give it up for what would not be a "near full" refund-- it'd be a full refund plus interest.


That said, the last time Tesla had to refund a bunch of people for missing an ADAS related promise (the original EAP/FSD buyers from 2016) they did NOT make them return the software in exchange for a check.
 
Given the current state of it, testing it every time I drive, I'd happily give it up for what would not be a "near full" refund-- it'd be a full refund plus interest.
That only really applies if you bought FSD after buying the car.

From my perspective, it would have to be a refund for the car with interest. I bought the car on that promise, not the FSD feature. I would not have bought the car without that promise. I would have continued driving my RAV4 until it died. And I'd imagine that's true for a large percentage of people who bought FSD when they bought the car.
 
That only really applies if you bought FSD after buying the car.

From my perspective, it would have to be a refund for the car with interest. I bought the car on that promise, not the FSD feature. I would not have bought the car without that promise. I would have continued driving my RAV4 until it died. And I'd imagine that's true for a large percentage of people who bought FSD when they bought the car.
You live in a fantasy world if you seriously think you’d get a refund for the car. Suggesting you also get interest makes me think you need a drug test. 🤦🏾‍♂️
 
How is EAP a finished product? Autosteer is still in beta, navigate on autopilot is still in beta, summon and smart summon are a joke and still in beta, autopark also still in beta.

Not a single feature is complete.
They are not in the same type as closed/invite beta as FSD is, the "Beta" label for those is solely a marketing term. All those features are "complete" in terms of providing basic functionality. Of course there will continue to be improvements via software updates, but that's a different thing from saying Tesla owes it to the point they are obligated to provide free hardware updates. Otherwise Tesla would have owed AP1 and AP2 owners new upgrades, but they don't. FSD remains the only package where they haven't provided the last promised basic functionality (for those ordering around 2019 and after, it's the autosteer on city streets).

That the feature may be largely a gimmick or a joke is irrelevant. Many car features are like that (for example a lot of lane keeping systems ping pong between lanes, or fall flat when the road is curvy, their remote parking features are even less effective than Tesla's).
 
They are not in the same type as closed/invite beta as FSD is, the "Beta" label for those is solely a marketing term. All those features are "complete" in terms of providing basic functionality. Of course there will continue to be improvements via software updates, but that's a different thing from saying Tesla owes it to the point they are obligated to provide free hardware updates. Otherwise Tesla would have owed AP1 and AP2 owners new upgrades, but they don't. FSD remains the only package where they haven't provided the last promised basic functionality (for those ordering around 2019 and after, it's the autosteer on city streets).

That the feature may be largely a gimmick or a joke is irrelevant. Many car features are like that (for example a lot of lane keeping systems ping pong between lanes, or fall flat when the road is curvy, their remote parking features are even less effective than Tesla's).

Beta tag is a beta tag. Sure it’s not a closed beta. But when I buy a video game or software where they give you open beta access, that’s not complete. You still expect and are owed a final version without the beta tag.

I’m an FSD owner so it doesn’t personally affect me, but I believe Tesla owes EAP owners on HW2.5 updates that bring autosteer, NoA, Smart Summon, and Autopark to a completed non-beta state.
 
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Beta tag is a beta tag. Sure it’s not a closed beta. But when I buy a video game or software where they give you open beta access, that’s not complete. You still expect and are owed a final version without the beta tag.
Legally it doesn't matter. Just like how putting a "beta" tag on it doesn't protect Tesla legally, it also doesn't put them in higher liability for hardware upgrades. Again look to AP1/AP2 examples.
I’m an FSD owner so it doesn’t personally affect me, but I believe Tesla owes EAP owners on HW2.5 updates that bring autosteer, NoA, Smart Summon, and Autopark to a completed non-beta state.
Why are HW2.5 owners owed upgrades if AP1 and AP2 aren't owed those? They also have features that have the "Beta" label (autosteer, summon, autopark).
 
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They should. AP2 owners were sold the same EAP, so they should be owed too. I’m not sure what AP1 owners were promised. Just autosteer?
The question was rhetorical, you are seriously suggesting Tesla is legally obligated to retrofit all AP cars simply because they used a "Beta" label in describing their features? I added what AP1 owners have above, it's autosteer, summon, autopark.
 
The question was rhetorical, you are seriously suggesting Tesla is legally obligated to retrofit all AP cars simply because they used a "Beta" label in describing their features? I added what AP1 owners have above, it's autosteer, summon, autopark.

Why would you say they use a beta label for every feature listed under EAP? Either they should mark the existing features as complete, or continue improving it.

“Beta software refers to computer software that is undergoing testing and has not yet been officially released.“
 
Why would you say they use a beta label for every feature listed under EAP? Either they should mark the existing features as complete, or continue improving it.
They are not obligated to mark things as "complete" or continue to improve it forever (even though they are doing their best to do that). Again for those features, it's just a marketing label, it provides nothing of real substance. Only the FSD Beta is acting like a real beta in the traditional sense of the word (closed/invite, actually making use of some feedback/bug reporting).
 
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Why would you say they use a beta label for every feature listed under EAP? Either they should mark the existing features as complete, or continue improving it.

“Beta software refers to computer software that is undergoing testing and has not yet been officially released.“

Not sure what rando website you got the definition from, but legally speaking beta has no inherent specific meaning, and implies no obligations of any kind, on Tesla or anybody else who slaps the label on something.

Elon himself has explicitly said he doesn't use the term the way many other do for that matter.


(disclaimer: it can have specific meaning in specific contracts of THOSE CONTRACTS define its meaning---just like you could make up a nonsense word and define THAT inside a specific contract and would then be bound by what it defines that as for that specific contracts--- and that (for the name Beta) DOES in any number of software agreements...often defined differently in different agreements-- but not as a general rule if it's not called out/defined in the contract- and in Teslas case is not)
 
That only really applies if you bought FSD after buying the car.

From my perspective, it would have to be a refund for the car with interest. I bought the car on that promise, not the FSD feature. I would not have bought the car without that promise. I would have continued driving my RAV4 until it died. And I'd imagine that's true for a large percentage of people who bought FSD when they bought the car.


FWIW, I don't disagree with you.

THAT said... I think you'd have a tougher case, and it'd depend on the jury you got (and possibly your states laws on certain things, but that's getting into the weeds and this post is NOT legal advice).

Your big problem there is you probably won't get a jury, you'll get an arbitrator...because unless you had the foresight to opt out of that clause right after buying the car you can't sue in open court for any amount greater than what small claims allows.... which WOULD cover the cost of FSD for most people in most states- but not the cost of the whole car.
 
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I’m an FSD owner so it doesn’t personally affect me, but I believe Tesla owes EAP owners on HW2.5 updates that bring autosteer, NoA, Smart Summon, and Autopark to a completed non-beta state.
I agree, but let me throw out another scenario to gauge the consensus of thought.

I currently have EAP and HW2.5. Let's say I go ahead and splurge on the $1000 upgrade for HW 3.0. Assume there are future improvements (say, from the single stack merge) that improve how the car operates on the highway (NoAP), or a Smart Summon that "doesn't suck". Those are the exact same features common to EAP and FSD, and I would have the hardware to support it. Obviously I would not expect the couple extra features FSD provides (stop light detection and Autosteer on City Streets) as I didn't pay for those. But this "expiration date" on EAP features Knightshade mentioned above is made-up unless and until I see something legally saying otherwise.
 
But this "expiration date" on EAP features Knightshade mentioned above is made-up unless and until I see something legally saying otherwise.


I never claimed there was an "expiration date" on EAP features. All EAP features are already delivered, and should continue to operate in the future.

Simply that the codebase for HW2.x is unlikely to see any significant changes in the future.... and that HW2.x owners with EAP have received all the features they were promised and would be unlikely to benefit from further improvements to those features whose names also appear in the FSD list for HW3 cars.


I'm not aware of anyone who has upgraded to HW3 and not purchased (or at least rented) FSD, so I don't know that we have any definitive answers on if such a person would be moved to the HW3.x code base for their EAP features or not.

We do know HW2.x code can run in emulation on HW3 so such an upgrade wouldn't be required though... (in the early days of HW3 that's exactly how everyones car with HW3 worked).

But even if Tesla did do such a SW upgrade to put EAP HW3 cars on the 3.x codebase, it wouldn't create any free upgrade entitlement for HW2.x owners, as there was (unlike FSD) never any hardware-related promises made about EAP related to undelivered features.
 
How is EAP a finished product? Autosteer is still in beta, navigate on autopilot is still in beta, summon and smart summon are a joke and still in beta, autopark also still in beta.

Not a single feature is complete.
EAP is a finished product in that Tesla said mission accomplished for each bullet point under EAP.

Now sure as customers of EAP/FSD we know darn well that they don't meet/exceed the expectations of the majority of the owners (at least 98%). But, Tesla and the ADAS industry as a whole seem to care a lot about how well a function works.

EAP is also complete in terms upgrades on HW2/HW2.5 vehicles. An EAP only owner who has HW2/HW2.5 isn't going to get vision autopark for example. They also won't get improvements to NoA that will come from the V11 single stack.

So ultimately whether EAP (and the EAP features under FSD) is really finished depends on who's asking.

If its accounting then yeah it is feature complete as there was never a performance level requirement.
If its a HW2/HW2.5 owner with EAP then its feature complete and you won't get anything except some bug/security fixes

If you're a HW3 owner with FSD its absolutely not even close to being finished. What you'll experience 1 year from now will likely be a lot better. Maybe autopark will work with enough speed to be useful.
 
I agree, but let me throw out another scenario to gauge the consensus of thought.

I currently have EAP and HW2.5. Let's say I go ahead and splurge on the $1000 upgrade for HW 3.0. Assume there are future improvements (say, from the single stack merge) that improve how the car operates on the highway (NoAP), or a Smart Summon that "doesn't suck". Those are the exact same features common to EAP and FSD, and I would have the hardware to support it. Obviously I would not expect the couple extra features FSD provides (stop light detection and Autosteer on City Streets) as I didn't pay for those. But this "expiration date" on EAP features Knightshade mentioned above is made-up unless and until I see something legally saying otherwise.

It's not made up as you don't have Vision based Autopark. What I don't know and I can't predict is how soon you'll get Vision based Autopark after you upgrade to HW3.

You'll also get the cabin camera activated for driver monitoring which might reduce nags.

The downside to HW3 is you'll get Tesla Vision at some point, and this might or might not be an improvement over what you currently have.

If I was you I'd do it, but that's more of my nature as wanting to experience the bleeding edge.
 
If you're a HW3 owner with FSD its absolutely not even close to being finished. What you'll experience 1 year from now will likely be a lot better. Maybe autopark will work with enough speed to be useful.


It already does.

It's vastly better than the old ultrasonic-only version we had for years.


Old autopark I used basically 0 times other than once to see how it worked right after I got the car, and a couple times when different passengers specifically asked to see it park itself- because it was so painfully slow compared to manual parking, required cars on both sides, and didn't even notice the spot half the time.

New autopark I've already used more in a couple months than I did old autopark in several years- it finds spots far more often, even with no cars next to you, and does so at speeds approaching an actual (albeit cautious) human.


It's not faster than I am, so I don't use it all the time, but it's good enough to BE useful right now--- and doubly so as a precursor to reverse summon.