Remember that non-Americans look at prices in their own currencies...and the USD has steamrolled over most of them in the past twelve months, causing such sticker shock for American products.
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No one cares. How many times do you have to be told that model years are irrelevant for Tesla. Go back in the archives-- no one posted about a 2013 Model S at the end of 2012, or a 2014 Model S at the end of 2013, or a 2015 Model S at the end of 2014. It's a Model S with whatever features it has. Model years are a relic of legacy ICE manufacturers.
I don't see how what you linked shows things coming up to 19,690 Euro base increase. I'm reading the post but don't see where they add everything up to get that.
For the second link are they comparing 60 vs 70D pricing?
I was just reading this thread (Just Became A New Model S 90D Owner. Full Review/Observations) and the happy new owner mentioned:
So FWIW, it sounds like even some Tesla employees believe a refresh might be coming soon. :smile:
It took a minute for me to "get it" and I ordered my Tesla in November instead of waiting for a ”2016 VIN". My family members and I have enjoyed my Tesla through the holidays. I wish I had done it a month earlier.
When Tesla makes changes to the Model S this year, (March?) all things being equal, early 2016 VINs will have the same value as the late year 2015 VINs.
Waiting for significant hardware changes makes sense but not a VIN year change. After so many year of an ICE culture, I can understand how it can be hard for some to grasp that concept.
Good spot! Of course, what SC staff say and eventual reality don't always match.
I am surprised anyone working for Tesla would mention this though even if they believed it were true! (not that I disbelieve the OP of that thread, just maybe the DS didn't think there was anything wrong in doing so, and just being extra helpful)
Andyw2100
Well-Known Member
It seems to me it is one thing to suddenly provide auto pilot hardware and/or functionality, or LTE instead of 3G, and another thing entirely to do something like change the appearance of the car by, say, changing the nosecone. In the former cases, Tesla is actually providing more than people paid for when they ordered their cars, which is a perfectly acceptable thing to do. In the latter case, Tesla would be materially changing the appearance of the car. I can't see them doing that without making the change first, and then allowing people to order the car after seeing the change. People who have ordered Model Ss with the current nosecone should expect to receive Model Ss with the current nosecone. If Tesla ever does change the nosecone on the Model S to something more like the Model X nosecone, they can't just spring it on people who are waiting for delivery of their vehicles, expecting the original nosecone. I can't imagine Tesla would think that would be OK, so I can't imagine they would do it.
I postulated a few months ago that perhaps whenever such a change it made, Tesla will make the announcement first and give potential buyers a month or so to lock in their orders for the current nosecone. Then any orders placed or scheduled to be delivered after that date would get the new nosecone. This could stimulate sales both ways as it would encourage potential buyers who want to current nosecone to go ahead and buy now. It could also encourage those who are on the fence and who want the new nosecone to go ahead and pull the trigger, scheduling their delivery appropriately. Of course they could also announce the new nosecone and have a period of time where both are offered but I think a clear-cut switch-over from one to the other would be easier to handle during production.
I agree Andy, but _IF_ Tesla do play hardball (it's in the order form the product is subject to improvement) and change the nosecone between order and delivery, what are people going to do? reject the car?
Sure a few might, but it's likely to come with other benefits than just the nosecone, LED headlights, dual AP cameras, NG rear seats, better resale, all as a sweetner.... besides what else are they going to buy?
One thing is for sure, social media and news outlets will all be singing the praises of the new car, and people rejecting them on looks alone will be branded as Luddites in every YouTube comment.
We might find it distasteful as customers, but business wise it's best way to maximal (short-term) profits if they only have a tiny dropout..
A good bellwether is looking at the D launch. UK sales fell off a cliff as soon as the D cars were announced, and with months of delay they crippled their Q1/Q2 sales here. Irrespective of the timing (this year or next) Tesla will want to keep a lid on things for as long as possible to prevent a similar situation in the more important US market.
If they decide to make a formal announcement, rather than simply rely on a shock launch, timing will be important. Maybe an announcement soon as the X ramps up, use the slack period to just fulfill X demand, (again the UK team will again feel the pain, with RHD X being a long way off, and delays in S deliveries leaving them flat). Maybe they will push it out until the 3.
How they manage this (and a face lift will happen at some point) will certainly be an interesting insight into Tesla's customer relationship ethos vs. short term profit to satisfy the markets.
Would work for the US.
Order to delivery in other parts of the world is a lot longer. I think we are running at 3+ months currently.
Andyw2100
Well-Known Member
Lots of interesting points made above.
My personal view is that since there are probably just as many people who would opt for the "old" nosecone as there are who would prefer the "new" nosecone, Tesla might do well by having a window of time in which both could be ordered. Unlike the autopilot change, which was clearly an improvement, I don't see the change in nosecone being seen that way by 100% of buyers. Provided that is the only change, I think the window with both available could work. On the other hand, if the new nosecone also comes with a bunch of other new stuff, then of course almost everyone would want the new stuff.
My personal view is that since there are probably just as many people who would opt for the "old" nosecone as there are who would prefer the "new" nosecone, Tesla might do well by having a window of time in which both could be ordered. Unlike the autopilot change, which was clearly an improvement, I don't see the change in nosecone being seen that way by 100% of buyers. Provided that is the only change, I think the window with both available could work. On the other hand, if the new nosecone also comes with a bunch of other new stuff, then of course almost everyone would want the new stuff.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
And I'd bet dollars to donuts that that Tesla employee "heard" about the "redesign" here on TMC (or heard it from someone else that read about it on TMC) -- legitimizing and elevating the rumor even more. A lot of people don't realize the difference between "Tesla Motors" and "Tesla Motors Club".
What an unprovable wager
Either way whatever the source of her "information" (TMC or Tesla, rumor or fact) I agree it shouldn't have been said to a customer. It legitimizes what is currently pure speculation and adds uncertainty.
I'm not so sure about that. I've seen three different rumors here on TMC:
1. Big changes coming, lots of deals in December (heard from Tesla employee at Burbank SC opening)
2. Facelift coming in 2016 (this thread, corroborated by the new buyer that heard April from their DS)
3. New Headlights spotted in Hawthorne, TMC poster confirmed friend that worked on supplier, indicated change coming in 2016
On top of that:
1. Hearing myself from a Tesla employee that new AP hardware was right around the corner, early 2016
2. Images of the X in the design center showing dual AP cameras
3. Referral program extended to end of December
4. Big drop in CPO prices in December
5. Model 3 announcement in March
If I was a betting man, I'd say we'd see some small changes roll out over the next couple of months (ventilated seats?) and maybe AP 2.0 hardware starts silently appearing - coinciding with the Model 3 reveal where we also get the Model S front-end refresh, headlights, and announcement of AP 2.0 officially.
If the 3 really does have the same front-end as the X, I can't imagine Tesla would keep the S looking "outdated". Would kill sales.
I cannot see them announcing AP 2.0 anytime soon. They just started shipping the Model X which shares the same AP hardware as the Model S (per Elon's tweet)--I cannot see them turning around and telling folks who just waited 3 years for their MX that its already outdated.
The US dollar has been getting stronger against most currencies. I believe Tesla has had to raise their prices overseas to keep their profit margins up. I don't believe there has been much change here in the US.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
Still complete rumor and speculation. Means nothing.
New headlights are likely. New design or "refresh" doesn't follow from updated headlights in the existing design.
I think we covered this pretty well that this is highly unlikely for reasons previously stated, so I'm not repeating them here.
Correction: ONE IMAGE, of about 100 pixels that show something faintly triangle shaped. Please.
I struggle to see what any of these have to do with a Model S redesign or refresh. CPO prices are dropping all the time. What does the referral program have to do with a design refresh?
That statement is always true.
I also find this doubtful.
Wow, wishful thinking. Again, what does the Model 3 *reveal* have to do with it? I think Tesla would be making the models distinct, and the Model 3 not being a "Mini Model S". A lot of people seem to think everything as to "match."
Like I said, you're assuming that the M3 is going to have the same front end as the MX. That's just as speculative as all the other rumors. It may, or it may not, I don't know. But even if it does, that still doesn't mean that Tesla is going to change the Model S -- and I still highly doubt they will change the Model S design in any significant way anytime before the Model 3 is released. The Model S, Model X, and Model 3 all cater to very different buyers/markets (esp. between MS and M3). Why would a non-refreshed Model S be a "sales killer"??
If I were a betting man, I'd bet:
1. No "Autopilot V2" released in 2016
2. No significant "Model S Refresh" in 2016 or 2017 (or until M3 is released)
3. No new Model S nosecone in 2016 (sorry, Charlie).
