Russia/Ukraine conflict

[iPlug]

Sequel?

Several explosions have been reported in an area of Belarus near a military airport that Ukrainian authorities say has been used by the Russian Air Force to attack Ukrainian territory.​

​

The Belaruski Hayun and Flagshtok Telegram channels quoted witnesses on August 11 as saying at least eight blasts were heard and flashes were seen near the Zyabrauka military airport in the southeastern Homel region of Belarus overnight. The base is some 30 kilometers from the border with Ukraine.​

Explosions Rock Military Airport In Belarus Days After Crimea Air Base Attack

 

[bkp_duke]

Sequel?

Several explosions have been reported in an area of Belarus near a military airport that Ukrainian authorities say has been used by the Russian Air Force to attack Ukrainian territory.​

​

The Belaruski Hayun and Flagshtok Telegram channels quoted witnesses on August 11 as saying at least eight blasts were heard and flashes were seen near the Zyabrauka military airport in the southeastern Homel region of Belarus overnight. The base is some 30 kilometers from the border with Ukraine.​

Explosions Rock Military Airport In Belarus Days After Crimea Air Base Attack

False flag? I can't imagine Ukraine attacking Belarus even if the Russians are using it for staging. They don't want Belarus brought into the conflict.

 

[iPlug]

False flag? I can't imagine Ukraine attacking Belarus even if the Russians are using it for staging. They don't want Belarus brought into the conflict.

Details are scant at this point, but if perpetrators remain mysterious, such as a partisan attack or Belarusian Ukrainian sympathizers, makes it harder to pull Belarus in.

Lukashenko doesn’t want to be drawn into all out war which risks elimination for him, just wants to maintain his little mafia.

 

[bkp_duke]

Details are scant at this point, but if perpetrators remain mysterious, such as a partisan attack or Belarusian sympathizers, makes it harder to pull Belarus in.

Leshchenko doesn’t want to be drawn into all out war, which risks elimination for him, just wants to maintain his little mafia.

Not to mention that Russia stole all Belarus's modern gear, AND Belarus hardly has any troops to throw into the fight. Leshchenko needs all of them to keep his regime in power at home, and Putin knows that.

 

[madodel]

I wonder what the robust domestic demand was. /s

Maybe replacing all the fuel oil destroyed in fuel dump targets.

 

[wdolson]

False flag? I can't imagine Ukraine attacking Belarus even if the Russians are using it for staging. They don't want Belarus brought into the conflict.

If Belarus tried to send troops, most would probably defect. Polls in dictatorships are famously unreliable because people are unwilling to speak against the party line. But despite that, Belorussians don't want war with Ukraine
11% of Belarusians support sending Belarus troops to Ukraine - poll

Just one poll of a few I've seen. If pollsters asked Belorussians if they wanted to go to war on Ukraine's side, they would probably find a pretty strong cadre of the population in favor of that.

One of the reasons the Russians had to pull out in the north was Belorussian railroad workers sabotaged the rail network to make supply movement more difficult.

Up to now the Ukrainians have been careful to avoid attacking Belorussian territory so it is odd they attacked across the border like that. But they are in the process of pushing Russian air power and air defenses out of Ukraine. If Ukraine can get control of their skies again that will only help Ukraine.

 

[iPlug]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1557629585516367873

 

[wdolson]

How to give Russians a few more headaches
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

Brilliant and easy idea that gives combat engineers fits and takes out some railroad engines while they're at it.

 

[petit_bateau]

oil not much down

Russian oil production falls less than 3% as sanctions have ‘limited’ effect

In July production was only 310,000 barrels a day below prewar levels, IEA finds

www.theguardian.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

How do you say SEAD in Ukrainian?

Budmo!

 

[iPlug]

The Russian economy contracted steeply in the second quarter as the country felt the brunt of the economic consequences of its war in Ukraine, in what experts believe to be the start of a yearslong downturn.​

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The economy shrank 4 percent from April through June compared with a year earlier, the Russian statistics agency said on Friday. It is the first quarterly gross domestic product report to fully capture the change in the economy since the invasion of Ukraine in February…​

Russian Economy Contracts Sharply as War and Sanctions Take Hold

 

[wdolson]

Ukraine is still struggling in the artillery war.
Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien on Thread Reader App

They need all sorts of support and training to get better at counter battery artillery strikes.

 

[iPlug]

Needs to be confirmed, but big news if true [the left bank is the eastern side as the Dnipro river flows south into the Black Sea]:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558478313701707778

 

[EVCollies]

Needs to be confirmed, but big news if true [the left bank is the eastern side as the Dnipro river flows south into the Black Sea]:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558478313701707778

ISW 8/13/22 also mentioned but needs to be confirmed.

"Ukrainian Mykolaiv Oblast Head Vitaly Kim reported that unspecified Russian military command elements left upper Kherson Oblast and relocated to the left bank of the Dnipro River, suggesting that the Russian military leadership is concerned about being trapped on the wrong side of the river."

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces are continuing efforts to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that support Russian forces on the right bank of the Dnipro River.
• Russian forces may be reprioritizing efforts in northeastern Donetsk Oblast in order to draw Ukranian attention away from the Southern Axis.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk, east of Siversk, and south and east of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted a limited ground assault north of Kharkiv City.
• Russian and Ukrainian authorities accused each other of shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• Russian authorities are failing to pay Russian reservists and members of volunteer units for service in Ukraine.
• Russian-backed occupation authorities are likely dealing with internal challenges that are complicating efforts to administer occupation regimes and institute restoration projects in decimated areas of Donbas.

 

[petit_bateau]

These were previously announced, now being delivered, 12+ x Mig29

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558497032410746883

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558354534472323072

 

[petit_bateau]

A good LRB

James Meek · Blast Effects: In Mykolaiv

It’s impossible to know how much of the Russian missile campaign against Mykolaiv is to do with terror, how much with...

www.lrb.co.uk

 

[petit_bateau]

Orban sucks gas ...

Gazprom has increased gas supply to Hungary, says official

Russian state-owned firm delivering more gas through TurkStream pipeline than ‘contractually obliged’

www.theguardian.com

and

Viktor Orbán’s grip on Hungary’s courts threatens rule of law, warns judge

Csaba Vasvári’s claims of ‘overreach’ follow freeze on EU funds over concerns about judicial independence

www.theguardian.com

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

New segment from Perun:

"All manpower, no metal" - Ukrainian mobilisation, equipment shortages, and training​

Previously, I've looked at the way in which Russian force design and political decision-making have left Russian forces with a surplus of heavy equipment, but an inadequate supply of quality infantry.

Today, thanks to a Patron vote, I look at Ukraine's situation. There, the combination of volunteers, popular resistance, and compulsory mobilisation filled the ranks with hundreds of thousands of new troops - but where a shortage of equipment and training has prevented them from realising the true potential of a mobilised, committed nation at war. /.../

Caveats: There are three overarching caveats that I want to put forward on this video
- The quality of data on this topic is subject is low and findings generally carry wide error margins
- I do not go into great depth about the distinction between the Ukrainian Army, TDF, NGU, and the many other units that are contributing to the fighting. Please keep in mind the impact these distinctions might have as I go through the presentation.
- This video is not intended to be, in any way, a slight on the fighting power and spirit of Ukrainian troops. I think calling out the issue of equipment shortages as well as the limitations of the mobilisation system in fact attests to what the TDF, Army, and other forces have achieved given their resources. /...

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

According to Ukrainan Defence Intelligence Putler's RuSSia is about to launch a fake fund through various Internet/Social Media-outlets with the aim at stealing money that was intended for Ukraine...

Source:

Regarding Actions Being Prepared to Discredit President of Ukraine

gur.gov.ua

Credit goes to (in Swedish):

Antonovskijbron bombad igen - Ryssland sätter upp falsk insamlingsfond för Ukraina - fortsatta ryska anfall slogs tillbaka

Antonovskijbron utanför Cherson bombades i natt igen utan att ryskt luftvärn kunde hindra detta. Den ukrainska underrättelsetjänsten meddelar att Ryssland sätter upp en falsk insamlingsfond för Ukraina och planerar att sprida denna i sociala medier för att misskreditera president Zelensky. Den rikti

cornucopia.se

 

[petit_bateau]

More MARS

https://twitter.com/x/status/1557992937006448640

note carefully

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558002014809952257

and Zuzanas

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558461465757089793