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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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The first batch of Switchblade 600s should be arriving in Ukraine around now.

Whereas the precision 5.5-pound Switchblade 300 has a range up to 10 kilometers and can only take out minimally armored targets, the Switchblade 600 has a warhead as powerful as the Javelin and can neutralize similarly armored targets. It weighs 120 pounds and can fly up to 90 kilometers getting behind front lines and like the 300 version is a “one-shot” precision weapon.

AeroVironment was recently making ~2,000 annually but within a few months hopes to triple that.


Switchblade kamikaze drone production to ramp up following Ukraine use
 
The first batch of Switchblade 600s should be arriving in Ukraine around now.

Whereas the precision 5.5-pound Switchblade 300 has a range up to 10 kilometers and can only take out minimally armored targets, the Switchblade 600 has a warhead as powerful as the Javelin and can neutralize similarly armored targets. It weighs 120 pounds and can fly up to 90 kilometers getting behind front lines and like the 300 version is a “one-shot” precision weapon.

AeroVironment was recently making ~2,000 annually but within a few months hopes to triple that.


Switchblade kamikaze drone production to ramp up following Ukraine use

About time we got some 600s to them. Can't wait to see what they can do. It's been very impressive what they've been able to do with the 300s.
 
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Interesting perspective from one of the most "independent" observers of our political scene, interviewed by long time fan of Elon* Lex Friedman who has now (like Elon) drifted into politics.

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(*) Especially for those not familiar with Lex Friedman: Lex first interview, actually #18 of Elon

His intro course on AI at MIT (he's since left academics and moved to Austin) - see his interviews with other AI top scientists too
Friedman/Chomsky is an eye-opener well worth reading.
 
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That's 40% of Russia's total lifetime production run of the SU-35. They don't have a more modern fighter in production to replace these ones sent to Iran. And NATO is going to deal with the threat from those low-cost, low-tech Iranian drones soon enough. Russia is giving away the milk cow for a handful of magic beans. They must be desparate. If I lived in Kherson, I'd be sleeping with my rubber boots on.
But does Ukraine has enough missiles to shoot down thousands of low-cost, low-tech drones? Won't the bulk get to their targets and cause a lot of damage? Were they making good use of the SU-35's? Re: the Ukraine conflict, I'm not sure why this is a bad deal for Russia, although the Russians are giving up fighters they might have needed in a future conflict. .
 
The outcome of the war might be determined by whether the US or Russia first loses the will to continue. I don't know which it will be. Mutiny in the Russian army is exactly what's needed, although Putin undoubtedly also understands the danger and will take steps.

(Hopefully future statements by soldiers who mutiny will say something more resonating than complaining about the guitar they were given.)
 
Life during wartime in Kherson. This video brings to life the human aspect of the war. IMO this is a must watch, especially for people who think appeasing Russia is the solution and for people who don't understand why the Ukrainian government reacted so strongly against suggestions of appeasement.


Russia seems to be doing its best to create a generation of Ukrainians who hate Russia and who will forever see them as the enemy.
 
Shoigu has spent his Sunday phoning up anyone who will listen to his BS story about Ukraine using a 'dirty bomb'.

But it's reassuring to know they were "professional and respectful" throughout the call. We wouldn't be able to put up with any amateurish or disrespectful behaviour by the Russians now, would we?

In the Russian/Soviet playbook, it is first necessary to accuse the victim of the coming attack. The West needs to man up. Putin is playing brinksmanship, and is increasingly desparate. He won't quit, but someone around him may facitlitate his departure.



Statement on Defence Secretary Ben Wallace's call with the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Published 23 October 2022

"At the request of the Russian Ministry of Defence, the Secretary of State for Defence spoke with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, this afternoon. Minister Shoigu alleged that Ukraine was planning actions facilitated by Western countries, including the UK, to escalate the conflict in Ukraine.​
"The Defence Secretary refuted these claims and cautioned that such allegations should not be used as a pretext for greater escalation.​
The Defence Secretary also reiterated UK and wider international support for Ukraine and desire to de-escalate this conflict. It is for Ukraine and Russia to seek resolution to the war and the UK stands ready to assist.​
"The Secretary of State observed that both Ministers were professional and respectful on the call."​
 
CNN reports Bakhmut is the only place where Russia is not on the defense. They say Ukraine is out-manned and out-gunned in this region with Russia having 5x advantage in troops. Zelenskyy says the toughest fighting for Ukraine is in this area.


That might have changed recently... Allegedly that is, so this is to be considered as RUMINT until more reliable confirmation...


Credit goes to (in Swedish):
 
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Shoigu has spent his Sunday phoning up anyone who will listen to his BS story about Ukraine using a 'dirty bomb':

But it's reassuring to know they were "professional and respectful" throughout the call. We wouldn't be able to put up with any amateurish or disrespectful behaviour by the Russians now, would we?

This demonstrates what appears to be delusional thinking on the part of Russia's high command. Shoigu may not believe what he's saying, but Putin seems to think that sending Shoigu out there to tell all the defense ministries in NATO that Ukraine is up to something dastardly is going to sway any governments. It probably would have some takers if it was put on Russian television, but it's not going to convince anyone who knows what's really going on.

Friedman/Chomsky is an eye-opener well worth reading.

Noam Chomsky is a complicated figure, but he has some convoluted views that don't really take into account the ways humans behave. I know some people personally who are like Chomsky. These people believe that if you treat everyone compassionately that the whole world will become a utopia. Quite a few people will react well to compassion, but a sociopath will consider you weak and take advantage of you at every turn. There are a lot of rules in this world that the bulk of the population wouldn't consider breaking, even if there were no rules, but it only takes a few people who would break them because the rule isn't there, or isn't enforced to make everyone's life miserable.

Back in the olden days of the internet I was moderating a listserv (email based forum) and when I took the helm, the rules were pretty loose basically just saying "be nice". But the list had grown quite a bit and the person who ran it before me was very hands off. A group of vigil antes grew up to deal with trolls and it often got ugly. I brought together a handful of other moderators and we had to flesh out the rules. Some vigil antes stepped down, but some others liked the power they had accumulated and fought us. The remaining vigil antes would side with the trolls when they showed up and it got messy for a while.

Things calmed down eventually and some of the vigil antes had to be banned. But bring the forum back to peace was difficult, though greatly appreciated by those who hung on through the turmoil.

This is just one corner of the internet where the stakes are extremely low. When there is any kind of real world power involved, and especially money, the hard core sociopaths are attracted like moths to a flame. Russia today is run by them. Not just Putin, but most of the people around him.

I only scanned the interview because I don't have time to watch the whole thing, but in response to one question about what the US should do about the war Chomsky says we need to support Ukraine since they were attacked, but then vaguely goes on to talk about finding a solution to the war to stop the bloodshed as quickly as possible. When dealing with a cornered sociopath like Putin, the only way to get him to stop the war would be to give him everything he demands and then he'll be back for more in a few years. It's the nature of the kind of beast we're dealing with.

Putin is an expansionist dictator. There are no appeasing these kinds of people. The only solution is to make it physically impossible to expand: take away their army. That's messy, gets a lot of people killed on both sides, costs money, and takes time. There is no option for a negotiated settlement until Russia is physically incapable of fighting anymore. It's like the Black Knight fight in Month Python and the Holy Grail. No matter how much damage you do, the knight is going to think he is still in the fight. The only option is to disable him and leave him behind.

People like Chomsky just don't grok the Psychology of people like Putin and that leads to a flawed philosophy.

Article on Wikipedia of Chomsky's political views
Political positions of Noam Chomsky - Wikipedia

There is a reason he's a political radical. His views are not very workable in the real world.

The outcome of the war might be determined by whether the US or Russia first loses the will to continue. I don't know which it will be. Mutiny in the Russian army is exactly what's needed, although Putin undoubtedly also understands the danger and will take steps.

(Hopefully future statements by soldiers who mutiny will say something more resonating than complaining about the guitar they were given.)

The US people are behind supporting Ukraine and one party is too. Putin is holding out hoping the Midterms go his way and his allies take control of Congress, which could happen.

Life during wartime in Kherson. This video brings to life the human aspect of the war. IMO this is a must watch, especially for people who think appeasing Russia is the solution and for people who don't understand why the Ukrainian government reacted so strongly against suggestions of appeasement.


Russia seems to be doing its best to create a generation of Ukrainians who hate Russia and who will forever see them as the enemy.

The Russian leadership is blind to the Psychology of the Ukrainian people and keep repeating what they have done since Moskova was a Mongol puppet. Terror tactics and submission from those tactics is all they know.
 
In the Russian/Soviet playbook, it is first necessary to accuse the victim of the coming attack. The West needs to man up. Putin is playing brinksmanship, and is increasingly desparate. He won't quit, but someone around him may facitlitate his departure.



Statement on Defence Secretary Ben Wallace's call with the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Published 23 October 2022

"At the request of the Russian Ministry of Defence, the Secretary of State for Defence spoke with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, this afternoon. Minister Shoigu alleged that Ukraine was planning actions facilitated by Western countries, including the UK, to escalate the conflict in Ukraine.​
"The Defence Secretary refuted these claims and cautioned that such allegations should not be used as a pretext for greater escalation.​
The Defence Secretary also reiterated UK and wider international support for Ukraine and desire to de-escalate this conflict. It is for Ukraine and Russia to seek resolution to the war and the UK stands ready to assist.​
"The Secretary of State observed that both Ministers were professional and respectful on the call."​
Didn’t see the UK Defence Secretary’s statements. Very helpful. Did see this piece by Mark Hertling, which while interpretive, was also helpful. In particular I liked these two comments,

”Sec Austin likely provided some pointed but nuanced communication that gave Shoigu pause. And Shoigu was likely testing Austin…and lying. “

“Austin was my boss in Iraq. I watched him have tough conversations partisans & corrupt officials like Maliki, and hold firm. He keeps his cards close & he provides the right messages with no potential for misinterpreting what he’s saying.”

 
Doesn't seem like this has been posted...

So in case anyone missed it...

Ukraine calls for global ban of Russia’s RT after commentator calls for Ukrainian kids to be drowned, burned​

Bradford Betz
Sun, October 23, 2022 at 11:20 p.m.·1 min read

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Sunday called for a global ban on the Russian state-controlled news outlet RT after one of its commentators called for Ukrainian children to be drowned for viewing Russians as occupiers under the Soviet Union. /.../
"They should have been drowned in the Tysyna (river)," Krasovsky interjected. "Just down those children, drown them."
Krasovsky suggested, alternatively, the kids should have been shoved into huts and burned. /...

Source:

Here'e the clip:

Credit goes to, since I saw it there first (in Swedish):
 
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Doesn't seem like this has been posted...

So in case anyone missed it...



Here'e the clip:


Credit goes to, since I saw it there first (in Swedish):
I saw it reported on Twitter that RU had fired him. If true, then apparently it was too much even for them.
 
CNN reports Bakhmut is the only place where Russia is not on the defense. They say Ukraine is out-manned and out-gunned in this region with Russia having 5x advantage in troops. Zelenskyy says the toughest fighting for Ukraine is in this area.


Which makes little sense to put this much effort int Bakmut. With the north having fallen, the strategic value of Bakmut diminishes greatly.
 
Has the America military won an actual war since it slaughtered the Indians? Maybe some cognitive dissonance, but the Russian military defeated the Germans in WW2 and what a history: 17 foreign capital cities that the Russian army entered The Russians will win because they must, the West (Ukes) will lose for the same reasons the Afghans/Iraqis/Vietnamese, etc. lost. When can all these folks get back to buying Teslas?
 
The Russians will win because they must, the West (Ukes) will lose for the same reasons the Afghans/Iraqis/Vietnamese, etc. lost. When can all these folks get back to buying Teslas?
Uh, Afghanistan won against both the USSR and the US. Vietnam won against the US. In all three cases the invading imperialists were repelled and driven out of the country. I had a good friend, a Filipino translator, who was part of the evacuation of Saigon. Sadly, he had to leave his girlfriend behind. If the US had won then US troops would not have evacuated and Saigon would not have been renamed to Ho Chi Minh City.

In the 9 year war in Afghanistan, the USSR lost 15K killed and 53K wounded. In the 8 months of war in Ukraine, Russia lost 67K killed and 202K wounded. Putin may need to win this war but Russia certainly does not. Putin sold it as a "special military operation", not an existential war. OTOH, the Ukrainians (perhaps like the Vietnamese and Afghans before them) feel they need to win. See:
Life during wartime in Kherson. This video brings to life the human aspect of the war. IMO this is a must watch, especially for people who think appeasing Russia is the solution and for people who don't understand why the Ukrainian government reacted so strongly against suggestions of appeasement.


Russia seems to be doing its best to create a generation of Ukrainians who hate Russia and who will forever see them as the enemy.
PS: for US military victories I recommend Six Frigates: the Epic History of the Founding of the US Navy by Ian W. Toll. His trilogy on the War in the Pacific is also excellent.
 
Has the America military won an actual war since it slaughtered the Indians? Maybe some cognitive dissonance, but the Russian military defeated the Germans in WW2 and what a history: 17 foreign capital cities that the Russian army entered The Russians will win because they must, the West (Ukes) will lose for the same reasons the Afghans/Iraqis/Vietnamese, etc. lost. When can all these folks get back to buying Teslas?
Russia no more defeated Germany than fly to the moon. They had their arse handed to them. They collaborated with Germany to invade Poland, invaded Finland (had ass handed to them by a nation of 3m), invaded all the baltics. Threatened everyone else. They couldn't even move supplies til they had American trucks and did not actually win anything until the USA entered the war. Without the USA involvement you would be speaking German. Even then they did not dare fight the 2 front war that the USA and UK were fighting.

All those foreign capitals are the states that desperately asked to join NATO so they'd never again experience the brutality and horror of the USSR/russia.

The russian army is a sad specter of the grotesque USSR army. It's still grotesque, just incapable. Supposedly the 2nd largest air force in the world and what does it do? Demonstrate just had bad the russian airplanes actually are, or maybe just how bad the russian air force planners are. Tanks are driving popcorn machines, soldiers are walking human rights violations. Brutality sure..competence..no.