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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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"Russia increasingly launching guided air bombs - Air Force spox

28.03.2023 15:16

As Russia’s tactical aviation is becoming more active in the front line zones and the enemy is using guided aerial bombs more often, Ukraine needs long-range air defense capabilities and modern multi-purpose warplanes. [My underline.]

That’s according to Yuriy Ihnat, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, who spoke at the national telethon, Ukrinform reports.

"We see that the activity of tactical aviation has somewhat increased recently, and that the enemy is now using not only missiles that can fly at fairly long distances, but also guided aerial bombs in the frontline regions," the spokesman emphasized. [..."


Early in the war is was noted that Russian aviation was only using dumb bombs, but they have used smart bombs in places like Syria. It was speculated they had used up their supply in Syria. I guess they have gotten enough electronics to keep production going on those weapons and maybe expand production. It may be the electronic parts they use for those are something easily obtained off the shelf and easily obtained from China.

If they just use something like GPS and a controller to direct the fins, then the bombs may just incorporate a commercial GPS module made in China and a simple microcontroller like an 8051 which is off patent and available dirt cheap.

8051s are in all sorts of electronics. The average car (ICE) has a bunch of them controlling emissions systems, engine timing, HVAC systems, etc. One of the most common USB interface chips has an 8051 integrated. Those parts run about $4-$42 depending on the extras on the chip.

For what the Russians want to do with a smart bomb, a $1 part would work. They just need the processor and none of the other things built into a USB controller.

To clarify vocabulary:
liberal:
willing to respect or accept behavior or opinions different from one's own; open to new ideas.







relating to or denoting a political and social philosophy that promotes individual rights, civil liberties, democracy, and free enterprise.
Communism:
an economic ideology that advocates for a classless society in which all property and wealth are communally-owned, instead of by individuals.

To equate those two concepts is a serious misunderstanding of basic vocabulary. The former encourages discourse and debate. The latter inherently discourages any dissent. One only need include a couple fo other words, fascism and conservatism, to understand the danger of misusing these words. Sadly, all four of them are widely misused today.

In my opinion it s not a misuse to describe the current Russian government as fascist:
fascism
Reflecting on current affairs around the world it is not, in my opinion, incorrect to describe trends toward fascism as the largest threat against liberal democracy.

It is interesting to note that The Economist, a conservative publication, has been a defender of liberalism since it's inception. All of su should understand that conservatism can comfortably coexist with liberalism. That coexistence thrives unless someone successfully stifles dissent.

I apologize if this post seems pedantic. I do so because there is no societal threat greater than that which stifles dissent, most often beginning with demonizing clear vocabulary.

The easiest demonstration might be a 'novel' George Orwell's 1984. US 99 cents can show the perils of loose vocabulary.

Communism evolved out of leftest ideals in the 19th century. The liberals of the era were concerned about the plight of industrial workers who were suffering physically and psychologically and many times being worked to death. Karl Marx (who was quite the leach BTW, he lived off the wealth of some of his supporters) believed that if the government took over all aspects of the economy, then a utopia would come out of it in which everyone shares in the benefits and everyone is equally protected.

Lenin believed that he could bring that about in Russia, but by the time he died he acknowledged that his experiment had failed.

The failure was tied to human nature and the lack of checks on power. Successful liberal democracies have systems in place to check abuses of power by those in charge. The ultimate check being voters who hopefully will vote out someone who is not representing their interests.

All liberal democracies also have some forms of socialism that provide safety nets for the unfortunate and elderly. In places like the United States the net is on the thinner side and in Scandinavia it's more robust. But all these countries also have capitalism in which someone can do better with hard work and a bit of luck, or at least a lack of bad luck. All countries also have corruption in which some people game the system for their own ends and this varies from country to country too.

Every place communism has been tried, power was too concentrated in a few hands and they always devolved into dictatorships. Communist systems do replace the guy at the top with their own mechanisms instead of falling apart when the strong man dies or gets ousted as is the case with non-communist dictatorships, but the lack of checks in the system leads to a lot of corruption and the country usually doesn't do very well.

Ultimately communism does stem from liberal idealism gone wrong. In practice it has never really been very liberal because they always devolve into dictatorships with insufficient checks on abuses.


This is the best explanation I've seen for why Ukraine is still there in Bakhmut

It's costing Ukraine, but it's costing Russia more. A lot of experts thought that both sides were going to pull back and rebuild for the winter, but Russia got an obsession to capture Bakhmut at all costs and the Ukrainians have stayed there to bleed out the Russians. Instead of rebuilding Russia has weakened itself trying to take Bakhmut. Ukraine was able to get a lot of Russians killed and burn up their resources using only a relatively small defending force.

Strategically it was and still is a brilliant move on Ukraine's part. Tactically it's a tragedy with a lot of human suffering.

Historically it's been repeated many times. The US Marines suffered horribly at Guadalcanal, but the protracted campaign burned up a lot of Japanese resources and opened the door for more offensives up the Solomons island chain in 1943. Not much is written about the island hopping chain up the Solomons because it wasn't anywhere near as dramatic as the battle for Guadalcanal. Japan had spent itself in the first campaign and couldn't bring much to bear on the later battles. By the time the allies were done with the campaign Japan's largest and strongest base in the region was isolated and the rest of their southern flank was gone.
 
Great video from Anders Nielsen. As he concludes, Russia is going to have a shortage of manpower when later this year Ukraine pushes the front line during their combined arms counteroffensive.

Putin is desperately hoping Ukraine will do as poorly as Russia has done in Bakhmut during their offensive their over the last half year. Short of winning that long odds gamble, Putin will feel he has no better choice than to direct a new wave of mobilization (stealth or otherwise).
 
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New footage of Russia test firing an anti-ship cruise missile. It doesn't look well thought out though with rocket blast directed at onboard radars, sensors, and windows.

Screenshot 2023-03-28 181803.png



 
Great video from Anders Nielsen. As he concludes, Russia is going to have a shortage of manpower when later this year Ukraine pushes the front line during their combined arms counteroffensive.

Putin is desperately hoping Ukraine will do as poorly as Russia has done in Bakhmut during their offensive their over the last half year. Short of winning that long odds gamble, Putin will feel he has no better choice than to direct a new wave of mobilization (stealth or otherwise).

Trent Telenko ran some numbers for Russian casualties recently
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

And he backed up why he trusts the Ukrainian numbers
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

If true the true toll on Russia from this war has been staggering and the Russian force left is not that big. The numbers look a bit big to me, but I do think Russia's losses have been high enough they would have broken the back of a western army. Russia's tolerance for high losses is an advantage in their favor, at least short term. Longer term it does them a lot of damage.
 
Timothy Snyder: Playing the Victim, Testimony to the United Nations Security Council on Russian hate speech

From March 14th, in testimony to the UN Security Council for a session called by the Russian Federation to discuss "russophobia." .

My first point is that harm to Russians, and harm to Russian culture, is primarily a result of the policies of the Russian Federation. If we are concerned about harm to Russians and Russian culture, then we should be concerned with the policies of the Russian state.

My second point will be that the term "russophobia," which we are discussing today, has been exploited during this war as a form of imperial propaganda in which the aggressor claims to be the victim. It has served this last year as a justification for Russian war crimes in Ukraine.
 
Another Wind of Change translation. Suggesting false flag operation in Crimea. And also discussing the removal of any veneer of humanity within the FSB.

Wouldn't be the first time by any means. Vlad going back to his roots when he and the FSB bombed apartment buildings outside Moscow and blamed it on Chechens in '99. He basically ascended to power on those murders.

 
Another Wind of Change translation. Suggesting false flag operation in Crimea. And also discussing the removal of any veneer of humanity within the FSB.


Wind of Change has talked about a number of false flag ops that never happened. It may be that making them public the Russians call them off. There are stories that the Kremlin was not that concerned when the letters were published in Russian only, but they went on a witch hunt when Sushko started translating them into English and people in the west started reading them. Apparently they haven't been able to find the leaker and others have joined the original letter writer.

The problem Russia has is that there are a lot of people in Russia, especially among the white Russian population in western Russia that runs the country who have family in Ukraine or whose family comes from Ukraine. They didn't buy the propaganda from the start and they are horrified at Putin's plans for the Ukrainians. That is driving a resistance movement within Russia.
 
Lloyd Austin gave a presser: Ukraine needs armor long range weapons and air defense- not f16s. USA going to give and train in what’s needed.


Combat activities seem to be slowing a bit. Swedish cv90 finally moving to Ukraine. I think these will be the most impactful ifv/apc donated
 
from the Guardian,

Zelenskiy: Ukraine had to return some air defence equipment from west that didn't work
Journalists from Associated Press accompanied Volodymyr Zelenskiy on part of his trip this week around frontline regions of Ukraine, and to the border region of Sumy. During that time, Ukraine’s president reiterated requests for more modern weaponry, and also said some elements that had been supplied by the west had not worked.

“We have great decisions about Patriots, but we don’t have them for real,” he said, referring to the US-made air defence system that has been promised.

Zelenskiy said Ukraine needed 20 Patriot batteries to protect against Russian missiles, and even that may not be enough “as no country in the world was attacked with so many ballistic rockets”.

Zelenskiy added that a European nation sent another air defence system to Ukraine, but it didn’t work and they “had to change it again and again”. He did not name the country.

-----------------------------

Re Patriot : the report is somewhat ambiguous. Is it a problem with quantity or with utility. Certainly we've seen no "happy contented user" info.

Re the other system : there are I think four western systems that have been sent, plus some ex-Soviet ones. Since we know the ex-Soviet ones are in use we can ignore them. In respect of the Western ones there are (I think) Gepard AA-gun; and then the missile systems - NASAAMS; IRIS-T; and (from memory) Crotale. I've definitely seen happy user footage from Gepard, but I don't for sure recall it from the missile systems. I vaguely recall some happy user footage from IRIS-T but I could be mistaken on that. I definitely don't recall any happy user footage on eithr NASAAMS or Crotale. I had somewhat assumed it was for OpSec reasons. Or are there any other systems in theatre that I've missed. Can anyone shed any more light on this ?

----
The first 6 of 10 Spanish Leopards will go after Easter, 4 more to follow soon after. They've been repairing them and are now in testing phase.
 
The difficulty the USA and NATO have in deploying air defense to Ukraine does suggest a huge operational gap insofar as it relates to this battlefield. the gap between manpads and patriot seems to be a critical gap, one a savvy opponent could overwhelm with a fleet of drones.
Has Patriot actually been operationally deployed in Ukraine ?

(I think not.
 
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Lloyd Austin gave a presser: Ukraine needs armor long range weapons and air defense- not f16s. USA going to give and train in what’s needed.


Combat activities seem to be slowing a bit. Swedish cv90 finally moving to Ukraine. I think these will be the most impactful ifv/apc donated

If the US provides Bradleys in larger numbers they will probably have a bigger impact just due to numbers. The CV90 is the best individual IFV/APC available though.

from the Guardian,

Zelenskiy: Ukraine had to return some air defence equipment from west that didn't work
Journalists from Associated Press accompanied Volodymyr Zelenskiy on part of his trip this week around frontline regions of Ukraine, and to the border region of Sumy. During that time, Ukraine’s president reiterated requests for more modern weaponry, and also said some elements that had been supplied by the west had not worked.

“We have great decisions about Patriots, but we don’t have them for real,” he said, referring to the US-made air defence system that has been promised.

Zelenskiy said Ukraine needed 20 Patriot batteries to protect against Russian missiles, and even that may not be enough “as no country in the world was attacked with so many ballistic rockets”.

Zelenskiy added that a European nation sent another air defence system to Ukraine, but it didn’t work and they “had to change it again and again”. He did not name the country.

-----------------------------

Re Patriot : the report is somewhat ambiguous. Is it a problem with quantity or with utility. Certainly we've seen no "happy contented user" info.

Re the other system : there are I think four western systems that have been sent, plus some ex-Soviet ones. Since we know the ex-Soviet ones are in use we can ignore them. In respect of the Western ones there are (I think) Gepard AA-gun; and then the missile systems - NASAAMS; IRIS-T; and (from memory) Crotale. I've definitely seen happy user footage from Gepard, but I don't for sure recall it from the missile systems. I vaguely recall some happy user footage from IRIS-T but I could be mistaken on that. I definitely don't recall any happy user footage on eithr NASAAMS or Crotale. I had somewhat assumed it was for OpSec reasons. Or are there any other systems in theatre that I've missed. Can anyone shed any more light on this ?

----
The first 6 of 10 Spanish Leopards will go after Easter, 4 more to follow soon after. They've been repairing them and are now in testing phase.

One bottleneck with the Patriot is the number of missiles available. The US built a 1106 launchers, but only 10,000 missiles. That's less then 1 1/2 reloads per launcher.

The US has not put as much focus on air defense as Russia/the USSR with regards to air defense and so it is one area where Russia has an advantage in both quantity and capabilities. Since the US gold plates everything individual systems might be better, but the US has no system with the kind of range of the S-400.

US doctrine heavily relies on air power and it's assumed that the key US anti-air assets will be fighters on CAP that can take out enemy aircraft. The ground based AD is there to catch anything that slips through the CAP.

The Patriot was developed to stop ballistic missiles, but that's a difficult problem and Patriots are only used to protect high value targets. The advent of drones is going to make the US have to rethink air defense. WW II style AA is going to come back into fashion as a cheap point defense drone killer needs to be deployed. The Gepard has proven its worth in that role.

Against a high tech power commercial drones will not be all that usable. High tech powers will be deploying EMP weapons and jammers that will take down drones with commercial electronics fairly easily. Hardened drones with an AI that can complete the mission without ground control will still get through though. Good air defense will be needed to counter those.

Trent Telenko laid out a scenario a few months ago where F-35 bases near the front could become vulnerable to kamikaze drones sent to take out support facilities. That could ground the F-35s.

Before anyone gets too excited, these French AMX are best thought of as unarmoured cars. Green paint is not the same as armour. They were designed by the French for a very different purpose in much hotter locations.


RUSI on FSB-KGB initial performance in this part of the invasion ***** READ THIS CAREFULLY ******


The AMX should be thought of as a heavy IFV than a tank. It's better armored and more heavily armed than a BMP-3, but it isn't really a tank. It could be used in the anti-tank role like American built tank destroyers in WW II which were open topped and lightly armored, but that doctrine was not very successful.
 
The AMX should be thought of as a heavy IFV than a tank. It's better armored and more heavily armed than a BMP-3, but it isn't really a tank. It could be used in the anti-tank role like American built tank destroyers in WW II which were open topped and lightly armored, but that doctrine was not very successful.
Most of the US tank destroyers in WW2 were fully enclosed. Including the M10, M18, and M36. The M18 Hellcat was particularly effective and had a 2.4:1 kill to loss ratio.
 
Most of the US tank destroyers in WW2 were fully enclosed. Including the M10, M18, and M36. The M18 Hellcat was particularly effective and had a 2.4:1 kill to loss ratio.

There were some field modifications to cover the turret, but they were all built with open turrets. Trust me I have plastic models of all three.

The M-18 was a better vehicle than the M-10. It was very fast and a bit smaller. The M-36 came late in the war, but it was probably the most effective being the first US vehicle to mount the 90mm AA gun that had been repurposed as an anti-tank gun. The 90mm was the only AT gun the US had that could punch through the armor of German late war tanks at any range.

ChrisO has started a series on the military history of Crimea and the terrain Ukraine will have to deal with to take it back.
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

Trent Telenko's further analysis of Russian casualty numbers
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

Russia is stripping everything bare to put warm bodies on the front line. They are doing long term damage to their military with this.
 
the chris o thread on crimea is really nice, he toured there in early 2000s . I was going to post thanks for doing it.

However I don’t think you are correct on the tank destroyers- as far as I know both the m18 and m36 were turrets based, thin armored, fast, but fully enclosed. Nope I am wrong-edited, the turret itself was left open topped for better observation. The rest of the machine was armored
 
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