JRP3
Hyperactive Member
You have to change the date each day for the newest updates: The latest on the Ukraine-Russia crisis: Live updates
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Interesting. Not to mention covid is likely spreading like the plague.
Harsh conditions mean Russian troops near Ukraine will need to be moved soon
Analysis: advance forces’ battle readiness will quickly degrade, giving Putin only days to choose invasion or retreatwww.theguardian.com
“If the troops are to be used then they will likely be used very soon, while they are as fresh as possible” and concurred with the assessment that commanders would want to move them on in “a few days” if they are to be effective.”
My TSLA plan was to wait a couple weeks for things to cool down before converting any shares into a combo of LEAPs and May calls. This has me thinking early next week is the move. Especially if we're down below 800.
Harsh conditions mean Russian troops near Ukraine will need to be moved soon
Analysis: advance forces’ battle readiness will quickly degrade, giving Putin only days to choose invasion or retreat
“If the troops are to be used then they will likely be used very soon, while they are as fresh as possible” and concurred with the assessment that commanders would want to move them on in “a few days” if they are to be effective.”
My partner read a few days ago that COVID is raging in the staging camps. Both armies are over 90% vaccinated, but Ukraine has been using either Moderna or Pfizer while the Russians have been administering Sputnik.
But even when there isn't a virulent disease on the loose no army positions lots of troops on a border on an invasion stance and doesn't use them soon after arrival. It's expensive and the general health and morale of troops decline while sitting in position.
Putin made a lot of mistakes here. He thought his armor could move quickly over frozen ground during the winter, he vastly underestimated the cohesion of NATO, and he thought that Ukraine would be weak like it was in 2014. He probably also thought Zalensky was a paper tiger since he was an actor before becoming president. It appears Zalensky has surrounded himself with competent people and Ukraine is preparing a good defense.
For historical background i listened to this yesterday:
155. Ukraine and Russia – The Rest Is History – Podcast
The initiative for Ukraine to split from the USSR and become an independent county passed with 90% of the vote. It was very popular. They also point out that somebody in Ukraine speaking Russian does not make them Russian sympathizers. They made the point that the history of the two countries has some similarities to England and Ireland. You would be wrong to say an Irish person speaking English means they are more pro-English than Irish.
The Russians tried to Russianize Ukraine for centuries. But it remained a separate culture with its own identity. Ukraine is more European than Russia and it always has been.
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
I wonder if there is any country in the world where a majority of its citizens would choose an autocracy over a democracy? Ukraine certainly didn't. The Russian Empire has been ungovernable since Catherine the Great tried to westernize the country. It got even worse when it was the Soviet Union because not only were the Ukrainians subjugated but also were the citizens of countries behind the Iron Curtain like Poland, Hungary and East Germany.
Basically, Putin's escapade is not an opening salvo in an attempt to reconstitute the empire. It is the last futile attempt by a 69 year old criminal dictator, who along with his oligarchs has robbed Russia blind, to prevent further dissolution of Russia. It's headed for chaos and eventually I hope, true democracy.
Basically, Putin's escapade is not an opening salvo in an attempt to reconstitute the empire. It is the last futile attempt by a 69 year old criminal dictator, who along with his oligarchs has robbed Russia blind, to prevent further dissolution of Russia. It's headed for chaos and eventually I hope, true democracy.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
In regards to Ukraine and Russia, there is one backdrop that hasn't been discussed and is entirely pertinent to this forum:
www.themoscowtimes.com
The need for additional land that isn't **as** affected by climate change.
How Is Climate Change Impacting Russia? - The Moscow Times
As world leaders gather in Glasgow for the COP26 climate summit in hopes of agreeing on a strategy to avoid catastrophic global warming, Russia stands to face significant changes from climate change in the coming decades.
www.themoscowtimes.com
The need for additional land that isn't **as** affected by climate change.
How climate change could lead to more wars in the 21st century
A new book offers a dark picture of humanity’s future.www.vox.com
Worth reading...even if from 2017
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Markets are already falling in response to the invasion. This definitely appears to be a full scale invasion.
I thought the invasion of Iraq in 2003 was a dumb move (I said so at the time), but this move is even worse. Ukraine is going to get trashed, but whatever plans Russia has after taking their objectives, they won't be able to hold the country, or successfully install a puppet.
With the spring thaw starting, who know if they are going to be able to take the entire country on any kind of reasonable time table. They are going to be crawling through thick mud until May. The Germans didn't try to go on the offensive until the mud dried.
I thought the invasion of Iraq in 2003 was a dumb move (I said so at the time), but this move is even worse. Ukraine is going to get trashed, but whatever plans Russia has after taking their objectives, they won't be able to hold the country, or successfully install a puppet.
With the spring thaw starting, who know if they are going to be able to take the entire country on any kind of reasonable time table. They are going to be crawling through thick mud until May. The Germans didn't try to go on the offensive until the mud dried.
I don't think Putin wants to be there that long, he's going to assassinate everyone on the "kill list" and install his puppet government and hightail it out of there. The Ukrainians better start putting up some resistance if they want to demonstrate they have the will to resist. So far there's little evidence that Ukraine is going to fight, if they are just going to roll over even worse than Afghanistan did and let Putin have his way with them, then NATO was right to not let them join because if they won't fight for themselves, who will?
Everyone knows NATO isn't going to do anything because the whole point of this is Ukraine isn't in NATO and Putin doesn't want them to ever be. Imagine thinking sanctions mean anything at this point. If Europe is taking this seriously, they should turn off all the Russian gas pipelines immediately. All imports of Russian gas going to zero overnight, then Russia might consider there are consequences for actions when their economy grinds to a halt because all petroleum export revenues stop.
Everyone knows NATO isn't going to do anything because the whole point of this is Ukraine isn't in NATO and Putin doesn't want them to ever be. Imagine thinking sanctions mean anything at this point. If Europe is taking this seriously, they should turn off all the Russian gas pipelines immediately. All imports of Russian gas going to zero overnight, then Russia might consider there are consequences for actions when their economy grinds to a halt because all petroleum export revenues stop.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
During the late '50s/'60s, Soviet scientists and engineers studied various schemes to melt the Arctic ice cap. They considered building a dam to block the Bering Straight (Arctic outflow), and diverting the 3 major North-flowing Siberian rivers which empty into the East Siberian sea (thus providing most of the fresh water 'lens' enhancing the sea ice floating on top of the saltier Atlantic water layers below in the Central Arctic basin).
Turns out, even 1960s climate modeling (SHEBA) indicated that it would only take a shift in the Arctic surface energy balance of +50 w/m^2 to remove the permanent sea ice cap. We've done that already. The vast majority of Arctic sea (~94% ) is now 1st-year ice which is much saltier, easier to melt, and most importantly to the Russians, a push-over to navigate with Ros Atomflot nuclear icebreakers (Murmansk to Vladivostok via the E. Siberian sea)
The first major Arctic ocean oil spill will pollute the ocean for hundreds if not thousands of years. The is no technology for a oil cleanup in deep cold seas. Then the threat of accelerated shift in climate change due to the 1st 'blue-ocean' event in the Arctic is being almost completely ignored by world Governments, and vastly understated in U.N. / IPCC climate assesment reports.
Unlike Ukraine, what happens in the Arctic won't stay in the Arctic. We are completely unprepared for the scale and pace of weather and crop disasters which we have set in motion. All so some ex-Soviets can relive their long-lost youth and manhood. Despicable, and despotic.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Tradegate Börse is now open in Berlin: (636.74 Euro is 715.80 United States Dollars, approx -$50 vs Wed's Close)
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The Russians have to find all the people on the kill list. The people on the list know who they are and they will be making it as difficult as possible to be found. The Ukraine has been a great place for people to hide out from various people who wanted to hunt them down for hundreds of years.
Ukraine has no hope of stopping Russia with a traditional defense. This won't be like WW II in the USSR, this is going to be like the insurgencies we've seen in the last 60 years: Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. They will be fighting with hit and run tactics from the beginning.
The Red Army was stopped dead by the Finns in the Winter War in 1940 with guerilla tactics. The Russians as well as the US ended up leaving Afghanistan with their tails between their legs. A larger force can take the cities and various objectives, but without 20 troops per 1000 population, there is no hope of holding the countryside. Russia would have to commit 800,000 troops to do this, they are, at best, only committing 200,000 troops.
Morale in the Russian army is low and COVID is running rampant. And most Russians don't want to fight the Ukrainians. When the insurgency starts picking off Russians, morale will drop further.
Ukraine has no hope of stopping Russia with a traditional defense. This won't be like WW II in the USSR, this is going to be like the insurgencies we've seen in the last 60 years: Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. They will be fighting with hit and run tactics from the beginning.
The Red Army was stopped dead by the Finns in the Winter War in 1940 with guerilla tactics. The Russians as well as the US ended up leaving Afghanistan with their tails between their legs. A larger force can take the cities and various objectives, but without 20 troops per 1000 population, there is no hope of holding the countryside. Russia would have to commit 800,000 troops to do this, they are, at best, only committing 200,000 troops.
Morale in the Russian army is low and COVID is running rampant. And most Russians don't want to fight the Ukrainians. When the insurgency starts picking off Russians, morale will drop further.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
What happens to Europe without that gas in the winter?
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
China will continue to play the long game like it did with Hong Kong. If it takes them 20, 50 or 100 years, Taiwan will eventually be absorbed. There's nothing to be gained at the moment by damaging Taiwan's manufacturing infrastructure.
Despite outward obtuseness regarding the Ukraine invasion, I suspect that as long as the world economy is not damaged, that China is pleased to see Russia's adventurism. It is confounding the West and may eventually weaken Russia further. What's not to like if you're China.
Depends on the parts of Europe. Some areas can deep freeze, for others it means cold.
Also affects some food supply.
I expect strategic changes in use of natural gas to increase supplies in colder countries. Suspension of coal plant closures and ramping coal use to free up some natural gas supplies, for example.
On the plus side, this is all the excuse politicians need to accelerate deployment of renewable electricity generation and energy efficiency measures.
Of course Global Times is owned by the PRC and they have to keep up the propaganda about Taiwan. They also got it wrong, at least one person doesn't recognize the sovereignty of Ukraine. Putin claimed that it wasn't a real country the other day.
Taiwan has enough allies that an attempt by the PRC to take the island could trigger a wider ranging war. It's also a tougher place to invade. Ukraine's border is a line on a map in a vast plain in many places, Taiwan is an island and the PRC does not have much lift capability to move troops in. Taiwan also has well established defenses in place that would be hard to take out before an invasion.
I think Taiwan is safe for now, but I suspect the PRC is watching the world reaction to Russia right now. The PRC is in a stronger trade position than Russia, but if Russia gets nailed with sanctions from all sides it will make any autocrats who are thinking about some cross border adventures of the military kind to think twice.
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