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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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FYI- just so folks know that Rostov on Don has the HQ for the southern russian region of the armed forces. Putin has visited there during the campaign and this is where much of the campaign is "managed". It's also a good sized city. Lots of industrial sites, refinery is there. Nuke plant a hundred miles away I think, though no tactical or strategic nukes. Airbase of course and the canal over to the Caspian Sea. It's a key city and the 10th largest in Russia. A great place to form a force and dare the MOD to attack. He'd be able to cut significant oil shipments.
Rostov-on-Don is (was) also one of the key and last strongholds for White Russia, for those who remember that the period between 1917 and 1923 was a full-on Civil War in Russia with plenty of foreign intervention. This will have resonance for those in Russia who do have a historical understanding. The military convoy heading fast northwards to Moscow is a fascinating development. As is the Lukashenko plane leaving Belarus for Turkey.



 
Woo, wee! I'm now NATO reserve, and our neighbor does PostSoviet things (again). It has been 30 years! Stop it, this is not Neon Genesis.

Also some dude:
"Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy."

If you don't give money or ammunition them, or worse try to do a preemptive strike...
 
Well Wagner now control the main logistics and military nexus behind the Donbas and southern fronts. Wagner now controls both Rostov (population 1.1 million) and Voronezh (also population 1.1 million). Wagner is now approaching Krasnodar (1 million) and Volgograd (950k) without any resistance.

Wagner have shot down two Mi8 and one Mi35 that were attacking their columns. Other Russian aircrews have refused to attack the columns. Also Wagner shot down an An26.

Plenty of Russian military appear to have switched onto the Wagner side. Including significant special forces and FSB units.

Wowsers.

(I expect the folk in the PRC HQ in Beijing will be checking they still fully control the People's Army)






https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1672372366641451008

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1672370308815241220

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672387892767760385

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672387845749702658

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672450646799417347

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1672422943534530561

https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1672434642123718662

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1672488251288944640
 
Thread reader summary of Putin's speech. Did not take the off ramp offered by Prigozhin, and doubles-down on his stupid premise for the war.

"Speech over. Looks like Putin is not in the mood for a compromise"


Given Prigozhin's response, looks like 'coup' is the right word now.


Unless I'm missing the picture, this can only be good news for Ukraine, and their offensive just got a lot easier. With regular Russian soldiers defecting to Prigozhin, the people still on the front lines are at a minimum confused about what it happening and have lost central command.

Fighting a war they don't want to be in, in a foreign country, while home is breaking apart is not good for your defensive focus.
 
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"Speech over. Looks like Putin is not in the mood for a compromise"

Top Five Questions seen on Twitter:
  1. "Three days to Kyiv?" Nyet.
  2. "Three days to Moscow?" Da.
  3. Where does Fall follow Spring? Москва.
  4. How is the whether in The Hague this time of year?
  5. Too soon for Russia to join NATO?
Payback's coming, and the bill collector is on his way...

Budmo!