Could there be any truth to either of these?
I don't think so. One thing any dictator is mortally afraid of is being over thrown. Pulling off a fake coup for some reason is something they wouldn't even contemplate.
I have seen people speculate that this is some kind of US CIA op, and speculation that this is some kind of kubuki theater put on for some unknown reason. Neither are true, this is a real coup/civil war/mutiny. It's really happening.
Someone else posted a 10 hour old thread from Kamil Galeev predicting that this rebellion will fail. The way things have played out since then, I think this rebellion has legs. It could still fail or a Prigozhin government could fall apart, but Russia is going to go through some changes in the next week or two.
Russia does hinge on who controls Moscow and the loyalty of the troops is questionable throughout Russia. The FSO has 50,000 employees, but it's like the US Department of Homeland Security. That 50,000 people includes border guards, people to protect VIPs, office workers and the like. The people capable of actually fighting are small and Wagner is starting with a force of 25,000. Prigozhin has gained allied forces throughout the last 24 hours. He probably has doubled his forces at least.
I think the two most likely scenarios are either a straight up coup where Prigozhin takes over the country, or it will develop into a full blown civil war that will go on for a while.
Prigozhin is probably the best battlefield commander Russia has, but that doesn't necessarily translate into someone who can run a country. It probably doesn't. I've noticed Prigozhin doesn't really seem to understand supply logistics very well. Generals who become good political leaders are usually good logisticians.
You beat me to it. I was about to post that.
I don't really know what to say this morning. There is a meme with a Ukrainian soldier watching updates on a laptop as he is surrounded by popcorn-that is about it.
Yesterday I wondered where the FSB was in all this...today I read that a General has seized one of the main military complexes in Moscow.
MOD is frantically putting up road blocks and MOD soldiers joining Wagner, they can't even pull soldiers out of Ukraine because...they might join Wagner.
Wagner is backed by some of the top oligarchs. Obviously not backed by others.
This:
That guy speaks excellent English but he's wearing a Russian flag on his arm.
I also saw a Tweet from Igor Sushko that said Putin tried to fly into Kazakhstan, but was refused entry.
One thing Prigozhin has done is cut off most of the supply lines into Ukraine. Rostov was a major supply hub and that is in Wagner's hands now. Russian troops in Ukraine were already facing some severe supply shortages and now it's just gotten much worse. On top of that morale was already very low in the Russian forces in Ukraine, but now they will plummet. Nobody is going to have any motivation to fight a pointless war in a foreign country when their own country is devolving into civil war.
I don't see how Russia can continue the war in Ukraine much longer. Especially if the fight with Wagner drags out more than a couple of days. Russia's military is very centralized, local commanders have very little say in what they do, but there probably won't be any orders coming from Moscow for a while. Commanders with a little self initiative may decide to pull back into Russia and probably join Wagner. The ones with no initiative will sit in place and get slaughtered by the Ukrainian army.
With Rostov out of Russian army control, all the air assets there have fled. There will be less air support from that direction. In addition as supply starts to dry up, all support will dry up too.
Russia has 90% of the entire army in Ukraine right now. They are completely out of position to do much of anything in the civil war without completely giving up their positions in Ukraine and fleeing. Additionally they are at the end of an already somewhat tenuous supply line too. Prigozhin's force isn't huge, but they are one of the best military units in the Russian army and they are the only competent force on Russian soil right now.
I give them at least a 50% chance of capturing Moscow within a few days.
Hopefully Prigozhin wasn't blowing smoke with his talk that the whole Ukraine war was a huge mistake. If he does take control and keeps to his word, he will be looking to end the war ASAP and blaming it all on Putin. If he really wants things to go smoothly and fast he will give Ukraine back their land and possibly return their kidnapped citizens (the ones they can find). Reparations are probably not going to be on the table though. Russia won't be able to afford it.