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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Think about it:
A PMC commander marched through Russia because 2,000 of his troops were liquidated by...the country he has been fighting for? He faced 0 resistance, save for some footage of some copters flying over the "advancing column". He abruptly turned them around even though the consensus here was that he could storm Moscow and had Putin running scared.
This was so obviously orchestrated. I don't claim to know the exact reason, but my thoughts are:
There were battle field movements within UKR that needed to be concealed, so this was a distraction
Lukashenko has had reported health issues (stated in this thread, but now I'm sure it's incorrect as it doesn't fit your current narrative), so Putin needed to set up his successor
The most obvious, Putin needs a solid reason to oust Shoigu, which would happen in the above scenarios as well.
This tweet from Tendar aligns with your thinking. I will paste the contents first, since it appears pasting Twitter links frequently doesn’t work. I highlighted a few lines that I thought particularly interesting.
“I went to bed after those crazy news and 36h being straight awake. Even though I referenced that this is a possibility (see this retweet), it was certainly not what I expected later on. Prigozhin fooled every one, but I remain steadfast that he crossed the Rubicon, even though Putin was kept alive, for now. The deal is also one-sided and certainly not pre-arranged, except in Prigozhin’s head, who came out with the upper hand. At least for now.There is no chance in hell that there will be business as usual. Especially not for Putin who in all of this was exposed as a lame duck. He clearly lost control and for now survived because some external factors decided it to be this way. But he is not the all dominant person in Russia any more and maybe this was the plan because the system was kept alive, while he has weakened. Putin’s fall likely would have would have caused a change of the system altogether and like I said, Prigozhin wants to inherit it and not destroy it. What is the really frustrating part of all of this is the fact that the war will not end these day. Everyone on any side could have walked home and the dying would have ended from one day to the other. Under these circumstances this is not going to happen and many people will die the coming weeks. A senseless death which won’t change the overall outcome of the war. It reminds me of the failed Hitler assassination of 20th July 1944. The war for Germany was clearly lost, but it took another year and millions of more lives which could have been saved when the devil would have been killed this day.It also showed that support for Ukraine is vital for our interest. It must be ramped up with no limits and hesitation. Give them everything what is needed to finally end this war.”
The worst and the funniest fail in this entire episode is probably this guy Mario.
In the age where automated AI bots can give you a dubbed translation within minutes, he chose to deliberately mislead people into believing that senior Russian generals are siding with Prigozhin...
.. while the bot translation clearly shows that they are sitting there arguing like three babushkas about the price of fish at the market
In the age where automated AI bots can give you a dubbed translation within minutes, he chose to deliberately mislead people into believing that senior Russian generals are siding with Prigozhin...
.. while the bot translation clearly shows that they are sitting there arguing like three babushkas about the price of fish at the market
The tweet I saw (and posted here last night) said ”the Lukashenko family plane” was heading for Turkey. It occurred to me that he might not have left but instead just sent his family. This doesn’t directly answer your question. My conjecture is that conversation w Prigozhin would have been by secure comms not face to face.
Russian nuclear weapons can't be armed without the fuzes which are not stored with the weapons. Conventional weapons usually have the fuzes and weapons stored in the same location and any armorer can arm the weapons quickly.
The nuclear weapon fuzes are specially built for the purpose and it would take some effort for someone who captures a weapon to fabricate a new fuze. It can be done, but it will take time.
Somebody could always capture a nuclear weapon and turn it into a dirty bomb, but that would be some kind of improvised weapon.
As far as I know, nobody fields gun fired tactical nuclear weapons anymore. There were experiments with them in the 50s and 60s, but missiles were proven to be a better delivery system.
US tactical nuclear weapons are larger bombs that have a dial-a-yield option. This gets around the short shelf life problem with tactical nuclear weapons. The smaller the nuclear weapon, the shorter its shelf life. They require a lot of maintenance to remain viable.
Russia's tactical weapons are warheads for the Iskander. Considering how bad Russia is at maintenance, many of those tactical nuclear weapons are probably only useful as dirty bombs at this point.
According to Google, Klamydia is the Finnish word for chlamydia and is also a punk band. The idea of flying to Klamydia is very entertaining though.
The Republic of Kalmykia is probably what you meant. It is a part of Russia I had never heard of either. I'm as surprised as you are that there is a Buddhist republic in Europe.
Lukashenko has been in hiding since things started getting real yesterday.
Something I saw today said that while the Russian people appeared to be largely supportive of Prigozhin, he got zero endorsements from any of the oligarchs which reminded me of Prigozhin's fatal flaw to become leader of Russia. Prigozhin is ethnically Jewish and the ruling class in Russia is very anti-Semitic.
That may be a factor in Prigozhin's sudden about face. He may have been told by the other oligarchs that he would not be allowed to rule because he was Jewish and knew he wasn't going to be able to hold onto power if he took it. Or if he did, it would involve a blood bath that would badly hurt Russia.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
OMG CoD IRL - 10 killstreak unlocks nuke loot pickup respawn.Supposedly Prig is going to Belarus.
Wagner leader Prigozhin flees Russia for Belarus after agreeing to stand down in deal with Kremlin
WAGNER coup leader Yevgeny Prigozhin fled to Belarus after striking a deal with Vladimir Putin to stand down his rebel forces just 120 miles from Moscow. The mercenary boss left Russia as part of a…www.the-sun.com
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I don't think he will respawn after FSB ends his game in Belarus.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
$$$, obviously. I wouldn't settle for less than $5B USD, in a Swiss account. Cheap, cheap for Moscow real estate, a real bargain for Putie...
Do you think 7 helicopters were destroyed, or do you think that part was faked?
Also the citizens of Rostov seemed very happy to see the Wagner guys and very supportive, If it was orchestrated, I doubt that the general public was informed in advance.
And how about all the citizens apparently queuing up at the train station to leave town? That seemed genuine which suggest the public was not informed in advance.
Finally we have Putin's statements about those being involved the rebellion facing punishment, not following through on that does not look authoritative.
I don't think Putin needs a solid reason to oust Shoigu, there is plenty of evidence of his incompetence,, and sometimes just going near a window in Russia can be dangerous.
Prigozhin taking over from Lukashenko seems credible, but is that worth 7 Helicopters, and can Prigozhin be trusted?
Dictators value loyalty more than competence. Shoigu has been loyal, that's why he's still there.
I strongly doubt that Prigozhin will take over for Lukashenko. Prigozhin is not Belorussian and Belarus is sick and tired of dictators. When Lukashenko goes, I expect Belarus to make is clear they don't want another dictator. I think Prigozhin is there to provide security.
petit_bateau
Active Member
What a bonkers day that was.
But this was definitely a 'for real' effort by Priz and Wagner, and has usefully attrited Russian tactical aviation by several airframes and some crews. As well as causing a helpful amount of chaos. However there are signs that it may cause a shake up in the Russian command structure, and that may cause it to become more effective rather than less. Hopefully it is too late for that to make any difference.
The scenes of Russian civilians being very happy to see Wagner arrive in Rostov-On-Don, and very sad to see them go (at least so far) make it pretty clear that the ordinary Russian in the street knows full well what is going on, and how bad things really are. Putin remains in charge only because he is good at running a police-state dictatorship through fear and corruption. The Russian street knows the game.
During the chaos there are indications that Ukraine has made some helpful advances that have not been widely reported. Let's hope that they can keep it up.
Western government minds got a lot to chew on yesterday. So too did Chinese minds. And 25,000 Wagnerites washing around the African gig economy won't be helpful for world peace - if they ever get that far in the next few months which I somewhat doubt.
It was me that posted the tweet from flight tracker. Sounds to me just as you say, family to Turkey. As to where Lukashenko really is, and what state of health he is really in, no idea. Or how many doubles he has.
I don't think Priz had any real downside in making the move he did. Whether Priz was wise to call it off on the agreed terms when he did remains to be seen. For sure it has exposed quite how brittle the Russian set up is, which is not something Putin can do anything about whilst still keeping maximum effort directed towards Ukraine.
But this was definitely a 'for real' effort by Priz and Wagner, and has usefully attrited Russian tactical aviation by several airframes and some crews. As well as causing a helpful amount of chaos. However there are signs that it may cause a shake up in the Russian command structure, and that may cause it to become more effective rather than less. Hopefully it is too late for that to make any difference.
The scenes of Russian civilians being very happy to see Wagner arrive in Rostov-On-Don, and very sad to see them go (at least so far) make it pretty clear that the ordinary Russian in the street knows full well what is going on, and how bad things really are. Putin remains in charge only because he is good at running a police-state dictatorship through fear and corruption. The Russian street knows the game.
During the chaos there are indications that Ukraine has made some helpful advances that have not been widely reported. Let's hope that they can keep it up.
Western government minds got a lot to chew on yesterday. So too did Chinese minds. And 25,000 Wagnerites washing around the African gig economy won't be helpful for world peace - if they ever get that far in the next few months which I somewhat doubt.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
The Russian Dictator tried to take out Prigoshin's chosen route yesterday but missed. See the second tweet. Was unable to isolate just that one without also getting the first...
It is unknown if any Russians were harmed in the making of this film...
It is unknown if any Russians were harmed in the making of this film...
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petit_bateau
Active Member
Well done Germany
New name at the top
And Ukraine didn't take a day off yesterday, not a good time to be in the Russian artillery
New name at the top
And Ukraine didn't take a day off yesterday, not a good time to be in the Russian artillery
Putin has stayed in power by developing an attitude of learned helplessness in the Russian population. It's nothing new, many oppressors have done the same thing to their populations or portions of their population they wanted to keep "in their place".
It's probably an alien concept to most of us here. Most people today who can afford a new car, especially one a bit more expensive than average probably has little in the way of learned helplessness. But it is a real phenomenon, even in developed countries. If you want to get the feel for that sub-culture watch either the British or American version of the TV series Shameless.
People in that state know that their world is bad. They may even be aware that there is a better life possible, but they have no idea how to get there and are mostly accepting that their life is just going to be bad. In a dictatorship, it extends to the idea that yes, the dictator is terrible and his inner circle is robbing the country blind, but there is nothing anyone can do about it.
The most dangerous thing about Prigozhin's mutiny is that it planted the idea that somebody can do something about it. Prigozhin may not be the one to bring down the dictatorship, but now people have the seed planted that somebody could actually do it. It may take a while for the next rebellion to get started, but people now know it's possible and two days ago they didn't think it was possible.
So much for the claims that this whole thing between Prigozhin and Putin was a sideshow to distract the Ukrainians. It distracted most of the rest of the world, but Ukraine was the one place in the world which was business as usual. In fact Ukrainian intelligence was probably on hyper alert watching for any signs of trickery or opportunities opening up. And an opportunity did open up between Wagner pulling out and then Kadyrov following.
The Kadyrov troops are pretty much useless in combat, but they have been happily playing blocking troops. With the blocking troops gone, there is nothing to stop Russians who run away from Ukrainian attacks in the Bakhmut area.
I was expecting the showdown between Prigozhin and Kadyrov to go sideways for Kadyrov. Wagner is a horrible organization akin to the German SS in WW II, but like the SS, they are some of the best fighters Russia has. Kadyrov's troops are showboaters who have avoided real combat at every possible opportunity.
Not good surovikin is competent.
The other guy used to be Putin a bodyguard.
@wdolson you realize that a huge number of oligarchs are Jewish? That none of the oligarchs came out in support of shuigo and gerisimov is aiming to supporting Prigozhin.
Re tactical nukes. We really have no idea, not the arms control folks and not you or I. What we know is that they developeded artillery launched and backpack nukes, scud missile launched versions etc. where they are, what the controls are what the state is …complete unknown. Fuses being in a separate box controlled by the GRU is scant comfort to me. Especially if prig is in Belarus and tactical nukes are in Belarus.
The other guy used to be Putin a bodyguard.
@wdolson you realize that a huge number of oligarchs are Jewish? That none of the oligarchs came out in support of shuigo and gerisimov is aiming to supporting Prigozhin.
Re tactical nukes. We really have no idea, not the arms control folks and not you or I. What we know is that they developeded artillery launched and backpack nukes, scud missile launched versions etc. where they are, what the controls are what the state is …complete unknown. Fuses being in a separate box controlled by the GRU is scant comfort to me. Especially if prig is in Belarus and tactical nukes are in Belarus.
One thing that I haven't seen brought up is that these small nukes are outside of existing Russian nuclear security. What is to stop some Russian Colonel or Major-General aspiring to be the newest oligarch from selling one or two to some non-state terrorist or even some nuclear wannabee state? If tank engines can be disappeared from storage why not tactical nukes? Or do they actually verify the honesty of their nuclear security forces?
Surovikin doesn't have that much to work with anymore. And everything is happening in a much more fragile Russia.
We'll see what he can accomplish.
Everything I have seen about the Jewish oligarchs is almost all of them live outside Russia. These oligarchs are not in the inner circle, they are allowed by Putin to keep their wealth in exchange for Russia using them sometimes for covert ops. Otherwise they are mostly out of the loop. The internal oligarchs have more power in the Russian system and other than Prigozhin, I don't know of any inner oligarchs who are Jewish.
The tactical nuclear weapons may be in Belarus, but we don't know where the fuzes for these bombs are. They could be back in Russia.
The purpose of putting those weapons in Belarus were to try and scare western countries into holding back aid for Ukraine because they thought Russia might start a war with them. It didn't do its job though. All the NATO countries saw through the ruse from the start.
I can't find the article now, but several years ago I read about the problem that the smaller the bomb, the more difficult it is to keep it viable. One reason the US retired the suitcase sized bombs and why it uses dial-a-yield today is that the small bombs had a shelf life of around 12 months.
Prigozhin is on record condemning nuclear weapons. His troops were close to at least one nuclear weapons storage facility and there is no evidence they made any effort to break in. They did loot conventional weapons from places they captured. I was concerned about Prigozhin gaining power several months ago because he has demonstrated a fair bit of ruthlessness, but with his anti-nuclear stance I am less worried. Not completely because people can and do lie, but from what I've seen recently, I would not put him in the highest risk group
If Girkin was to come to take Putin's job, things might be different. Girkin is of the opinion that everything is fair game for Russia. Though he would also likely bring the entire system down around his ears by trying to initiate full conscription.
I have never seen any evidence that the tactical nuclear weapons were outside the standard Russian nuclear security protocols. Where did you see this?
They are outside of Russia and from all the lunacy we have seen from Russia why would you not at least think of the possibility that they would be treated like every other thing item that the Russian military can steal and sell? Basically I'm asking if the security will be the same as when this crap was in Russia.Yes they aren't washing machines but these people are truly nuts as we've seen of late.
It wasn't all that long ago (30 years?) when the USSR broke up and everyone was all of a sudden fearful of having nukes in Ukraine under the control of a non-Soviet administration and military.
navguy12
Active Member
Agreed. But he still made the deal…thus my interest in what was within the offer that he couldn’t refuse, knowing that he will have to look over his shoulder for the rest of his life.
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