Russia/Ukraine conflict

[nativewolf]

Why does it need to be moved? Next land drone in line goes around and mapping out detour continues. A straight cleared path through a minefield although would be quite nice, would be very unlikely but not needed.

How do you go around? there is a mine just on the other side. You hit that. That is what what happened to bradleys, they tried to drive around a mine damaged vehicle and got hit themselves. To be clear the minefields are miles long and hundreds of meters deep.

Mine clearing charges are helpful but again very much an advertisement. Doing by hand at night stealthy and slow

 

[iPlug]

The minefields are 100 meters deep. So you hit mines in 5 meters, then you have 10 vehicles stuck in the way of attack. It tells the enemy exactly where you want to attack. They just sit and wait...

How do you go around? there is a mine just on the other side. You hit that...

Agree there will be some scenarios when there are too many stuck vehicles - but again, only one vehicle is exposed at a time, when one in front detonates, the vehicles behind re-route. But the idea is to probe many axes across the entire front-line so the enemy does not know which one you will use. Because a channel may also open open rapidly, a newly opened channel may not be discovered by the enemy in time and allow a real time follow-through with infantry, tanks, APCs...

100 x $5k vehicles to clear 1km is a good bargain.

 

[madodel]

Apparently violent and especially gruesome crimes are up in Russia. At first I thought this was about the typical Russian military war crimes in Ukraine but it's all stories from Russia itself.

Russian Horror Story Burnings of schoolgirls and rapings of cats — Russia is experiencing a surge in violence. Is it the new norm or is it just media hype?

 

[nativewolf]

Agree there will be some scenarios when there are too many stuck vehicles - but again, only one vehicle is exposed at a time, when one in front detonates, the vehicles behind re-route. But the idea is to probe many axes across the entire front-line so the enemy does not know which one you will use. Because a channel may also open open rapidly, a newly opened channel may not be discovered by the enemy in time and allow a real time follow-through with infantry, tanks, APCs...

The struck vehicle though acts as a barrier in itself. On either side are more mines and this goes on for some 200 miles. They are deep minefields so they struck mine is the first of hundreds of meters of mines. Then a break, then more mines. They learned from Iraq failures and have dramatically increased the density of the mines. The explosions are not even setting off the mines 10 feet away.

Ukraine is advancing across the terrain by sticking to un-mined forests, moving slowly, de-mining between forests strips and doing trench warfare attrition artillery attacks. Keeping equipment and casualty losses down. You can see that Ukraine equipment losses are slightly below Russias but not that much lower.

 

[iPlug]

As seen in the last few months and most recently 24 hours, Ukrainian development, manufacture, and utility of air and sea drones continues at an impressive clip.

Land drones would complement this. Barriers to their development include that navigating on land is considerably more difficult than air or sea, even when no one is targeting you for destruction. Witness Tesla/FSD…

Yet the potential upside of a land drone over an air drone is that they can deliver much higher payloads of explosives to the enemy. Even with a high failure rate (interception by ammunition/missiles/mines, jamming, etc), a fleet of thousands of beater $5k land drones with a few hundred kg explosives used individually or in packs could be useful in several scenarios.

 

[navguy12]

Apparently violent and especially gruesome crimes are up in Russia. At first I thought this was about the typical Russian military war crimes in Ukraine but it's all stories from Russia itself.

Russian Horror Story Burnings of schoolgirls and rapings of cats — Russia is experiencing a surge in violence. Is it the new norm or is it just media hype?

In the tagged story, it seems based on the “official statistics“ from the Russian government, these types of crimes are declining.

I guess it must all be media hype. /s

 

[madodel]

In the tagged story, it seems based on the “official statistics“ from the Russian government, these types of crimes are declining.

I guess it must all be media hype. /s

Of course cime is down. Most of the old criminals are in Ukraine winning the Special Operation. Russia is on a roll. Soon they'll they'll me marching down the Champs Elysee.

 

[nativewolf]

At this very moment drones hitting Kerch Bridge. Pray third times the charm

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687577405953548289

 

[nativewolf]

WOW lots happening tonight in Ukraine, Robotyne, Crimea, Kerch bridge, Kursk russia. Busy busy

 

[nativewolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687566536288894976

 

[iPlug]

WOW lots happening tonight in Ukraine, Robotyne, Crimea, Kerch bridge, Kursk russia. Busy busy

"sow the wind, reap the whirlwind"... (agnostic myself, but seems fitting)

 

[iPlug]

What are the odds Taiwan is becoming seriously interested in working with Ukraine to co-develop and produce naval drones? Would be a game-changer for Taiwan to prevent a future naval blockade and/or assault from the mainland.

 

[nativewolf]

Game on in the black sea, aviation fuel tanker hit by drone

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687592554580078592

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687587620283375617

 

[wdolson]

This article from BBC recounts some history of U.S. and Russia developing very large thermobaric bombs. Given how they work it seems they can be built any size that is useful for a specific military task. Especially interesting in this article is the statement that large ones have been designed (and presumably built) to kill defenders in cave and tunnel complexes. A different article pointed out that themobarics are lethal both from the heat of the exploding vapor and from the huge pressure wave it creates. This suggests that one designed for clearing mine fields could produce a pressure wave that could detonate all the mines in the area it's been built to destroy. Mines nearer the epicenter of the blast, buried a few feet under the ground might well be set off by the heat of the blast. Ukraine claims Russians have used thermobarics occasionally to attack troops. Given their technical skills I would imagine building their own would not be too difficult. I won't get into challenges around delivering large thermobaric weapons accurately to a huge land mine zone, but if they were able to do so it might be possible to blast a wide path through the deep mine field that tanks could use to stream through the gap created.

What is a thermobaric or vacuum bomb?.

Delivery at this point is the tough part. With air superiority an air force could drop all the BLU-95s and 96s in the US inventory, but nobody has air superiority.

"Huge air-launched versions have also been designed, specifically to kill defenders in caves and tunnel complexes - the effects of this weapon are at their most severe in enclosed spaces.
In 2003, the US tested a 9,800kg bomb, nicknamed the "Mother of all bombs". Four years later, Russia developed a similar device, the Father of all bombs". This created an explosion equivalent to a 44-tonne conventional bomb - making it the biggest non-nuclear explosive device in the world.

Given their devastating impact, and their usefulness against defenders who are dug in to buildings or bunkers, thermobaric bombs have mainly been used in urban environments."

Fire turns all the advantages of fortifications into disadvantages. That's why everyone employed flame throwers in WW II. Napalm was a late war invention to create airborne flame throwers.

- I have a fairly shrewd idea that the various surface drones begat most of their design rather closer to me than to Mykolaiv.

I wouldn't be surprised if they are using some designs from someone else, but they are building them in Ukraine so they can use them in Russia.

- The Daisy Cutter was the progenitor of the MOAB in many ways.

It was

If you read the original link I gave re the MOAB, and read the calculation I gave , then you will understand that the journalist who wrote 'huge' does not understand weaponeering. As I point out the pressure created is insufficient to clear a very large area. Their efficacy in tunnel complexes is also somewhat suspect which is why the Allies used a different (British) weapon on recent cave/tunnel complex targets in Syria.

=========

China Russia rail softening as well

China-Russia rail volumes set to drop despite recent monopoly

With eighty per cent of international freight trains leaving China ending up in Russia, as several Chinese rail platform companies confirm, China-Russia volumes have sort of monopolised the Silk Road lately. 2023 has undoubtedly been the heyday of China-Russia trains; however, recent data shows...

www.railfreight.com

This is interesting. It may be another sign that Russia is running out of money. China won't send stuff to Russia on charity, so if Russia doesn't have the cash, China won't send stuff.

Agree there will be some scenarios when there are too many stuck vehicles - but again, only one vehicle is exposed at a time, when one in front detonates, the vehicles behind re-route. But the idea is to probe many axes across the entire front-line so the enemy does not know which one you will use. Because a channel may also open open rapidly, a newly opened channel may not be discovered by the enemy in time and allow a real time follow-through with infantry, tanks, APCs...

100 x $5k vehicles to clear 1km is a good bargain.

Most scenarios result in stuck vehicles 10m into the field. In a lot of places the Russians sowed mines 5X per sq meter. These are insanely dense as well as large mine fields.

Apparently violent and especially gruesome crimes are up in Russia. At first I thought this was about the typical Russian military war crimes in Ukraine but it's all stories from Russia itself.

Russian Horror Story Burnings of schoolgirls and rapings of cats — Russia is experiencing a surge in violence. Is it the new norm or is it just media hype?

I have read that the first prisoners to survive 6 months have been released and returned home. Additionally there are demobilized troops who were able to get out last year who have returned home with severe PTSD. Some of the specific stories might be exaggerated, but Russia is facing a generation of higher substance abuse and violent crime. It happened after WW II.

At this very moment drones hitting Kerch Bridge. Pray third times the charm

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687577405953548289

I saw this before reading this thread. The Russians are claiming they have destroyed three drones near the bridge. A drone did hit an oil tanker in the Black Sea and the engine room flooded. It's being towed back to port.

Satellite photos of the damaged landing ship are out

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687481496305557504

The nearest dry dock is in Sevastapol. The ship is probably going to sit where it is for the rest of the war.

 

[jerry33]

What are the odds Taiwan is becoming seriously interested in working with Ukraine to co-develop and produce naval drones? Would be a game-changer for Taiwan to prevent a future naval blockade and/or assault from the mainland.

Probably not very high as that would give China an excuse to provide actual aid to Russia (as opposed to just selling them stuff).

 

[nativewolf]

Something else the brits have done (in addition to some drone help)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687555320304877569

 

[nativewolf]

Why is the helicopter fleet still running in Berdyansk (a topic we've discussed) here is a good thread on the same.

Thread by @Tatarigami_UA on Thread Reader App

@Tatarigami_UA: This thread analyzes the situation at Berdyans'k airport, focusing on russian helicopters. Amid the ongoing offensive, observers may find it puzzling that these helicopters remain unscathed at their ...…

threadreaderapp.com

In the comments people suggest another 10km and they'll be in HIMARS range but based on the attack on the troops the other day on the islands in Kherson I would say they may be right. HIMARS will make it untenable but they may lose a launcher. It's a gamble. Fingers crossed the UAF breached the dragon teeth.

 

[nativewolf]

more on the tanker

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687624844291006466

 

[nativewolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687609995506925569

Game on

 

[wdolson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687609995506925569

Game on

I read somewhere today that the Russians were using that tanker as an AD platform.

I haven't seen anything documenting damage to the Kerch Bridge. It's possible the Russians told the truth for once and all the drones targeting the bridge were destroyed before making it to their target.