Russia/Ukraine conflict

[DayTrippin]

If Ruzzia wins, Ukraine loses everything if the murdering fascists prevail, no matter what is on paper. Treaties with Putin are worthless. Ukraine needs to kill a lot more Ruzzians. As to "most of the news sites have a bias", it's not a "bias", that site is flat out propaganda. The Ukranians admit to defeats. The Ruzzians claim everything is a victory. It has been posted here many times that in Ruzzia there are lots of ways of saying "lie" because that is pretty much all they do.

I'm an American who lived in Russia for quite some time. I speak, read and write fluent Russian. I married a Ukrainian. I can pretty well bet I understand how everything works there better than almost anyone here. I lost my apartment in Crimea during the earlier invasion (2014) since our (US) State Department were morons when I told them what was happening. I have almost no faith in the US gov't. If they done more earlier, i.e., years ago, thousands of people wouldn't have died already in this war. But absolute dipwads like John Kerry didn't help anything. I've personally lost numerous friends in this stupid war. If the US and UK had even stepped up and supported the Budapest Memorandum and said invading Ukraine is a red line, that might have helped as well.

As I've said upstream, I want Ukraine to win. There is still a bias in reporting. They downplay the losses in Ukraine and play up the successes in most of the Western media. That can distort the picture quite a bit. Not to mention the slow walking of arming Ukraine allowed Russia to mine the hell out of everything slowing down the counteroffensive. We still need to be objective and not let our hearts be blinded to what the reality on the ground might actually be. So that is why I voraciously read Russian, Ukrainian and other sites daily to understand the picture as accurately as possible. Not to mention I get real-time updates from family in Ukraine. Whether I want to or not, I live with information overload on this war daily. My sensory overload is nothing compared to the people suffering while we armchair quarterback the war. Critical thought is something that should never be lost regardless of who we want to win.

I want Ukraine to decisively win this war and push back the borders to where they were originally before the Russian invasion. I have been around long enough to know there is the Ukrainian truth, Russian truth, and the "real truth". I would wager the real truth is closer to the Ukrainian side.

 

[wdolson]

Ukraine's anti-corruption agency(?) has blacklisted Bacardi as an international sponsor of the Russian Dictator's illegal war in Ukraine. Bacardi is expanding in Russia and financed the war with over 1.2 billion rubles last year alone.

Bacardi includes brands such as Bacardi, Havana Club and Martini.

For a complete list of Bacardi brands:

Bacardi - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Bacardi - International sponsor of war | War and sanctions

Bacardi - International sponsor of war | War and sanctions

sanctions.nazk.gov.ua

While no western business should continue doing business in Russia, 1.2 billion rubles is about $12 million USD.

 

[SageBrush]

I've often learned the truth is somewhere between the 2 extremes

'somewhere' leaves a lot of ground to cover

 

[DayTrippin]

'somewhere' leaves a lot of ground to cover

I agree. Especially having gone through divorce court.

There is also the saying one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. While I think most of us here would agree that Russians are the terrorist here, even more so given their actions in Irpin and Bucha.

There is still a large contingent of Russians who feel Russia was backed into a corner. Maybe not enough to justify this war but enough to justify some military response. I can't say I agree with them but I do understand where they are coming from. I've argued with friends who I've known for 30+ years and they have been so bombarded with propaganda and don't have good access to internet. Others aren't technically savvy enough to find news outside Russia. As a result, they've been fed the propaganda for years. The old adage applies, if you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it.

I gave up trying to change their mind. It is hopeless. Just as it is with a large portion of the Russian population. Now that husbands and sons aren't coming back from vacation in Ukraine, more people are waking up to the reality of the war in Ukraine and what a blunder it is. At the same time, some are saying what aren't we doing more. More as in the sense of dropping a nuke, dirty bomb or whatever other terrible weapons they might have in reserve. They've been told that Russia is the number one power in the world and can't understand why it isn't already over.

 

[navguy12]

“…Maliar said: “The main focus of the Ukrainian army is the south, and the Russians are focused on the east. The Russians are infiltrating in two main areas – Kupiansk and Lyman. It’s a nightmare there…”

Ukraine forces have retaken land near Bakhmut from Russia, Kyiv says

Despite gains, deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar warns of ‘nightmare’ situation farther north in Kharkiv

www.theguardian.com

 

[SageBrush]

There is still a large contingent of Russians who feel Russia was backed into a corner

What corner would that be ?

The Western threats of nuclear bombardment ? That would be Russian threats
The blanket bombardment of Russia with missles ? That would be Russian bombardment of UKR
The wanton murder, rape, and kidnapping of Russian civilians and children ? That would be Russian war crimes against UKR

What a bunch of despicable lies. Even recent US politicians would have a hard time meeting that bar. I'll tell you what is true: A former USSR colony wants independence from Russia. I could see Russian citizens believing that the move away from Russia was 'engineered' by the West, no matter how divorced from reality that argument may be. My response is three-fold: UKR says differently; even if true, a war of aggression puts Russia squarely in the wrong; and third, UKR is one among a growing list of territories that all want independence from the Russian Federation.

Russia takes great offense from the Western desire to see Russian weakened or fragmented. They ignore the fact that this position has only gained widespread appeal since the invasion of UKR.

Bottom line: Russia deserves to suffer all the misery they have brought down on UKR.

 

[nativewolf]

Not sure everyone has seen the damage caused by the two naval drones

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689779206601981952

the oil tanker and then the landing ship.

Huge fires in Moscow, again, tonight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689740069114990592

Not sure what but it was in large new looking warehouse.

 

[madodel]

I agree. Especially having gone through divorce court.

There is also the saying one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. While I think most of us here would agree that Russians are the terrorist here, even more so given their actions in Irpin and Bucha.

There is still a large contingent of Russians who feel Russia was backed into a corner. Maybe not enough to justify this war but enough to justify some military response. I can't say I agree with them but I do understand where they are coming from. I've argued with friends who I've known for 30+ years and they have been so bombarded with propaganda and don't have good access to internet. Others aren't technically savvy enough to find news outside Russia. As a result, they've been fed the propaganda for years. The old adage applies, if you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it.

I gave up trying to change their mind. It is hopeless. Just as it is with a large portion of the Russian population. Now that husbands and sons aren't coming back from vacation in Ukraine, more people are waking up to the reality of the war in Ukraine and what a blunder it is. At the same time, some are saying what aren't we doing more. More as in the sense of dropping a nuke, dirty bomb or whatever other terrible weapons they might have in reserve. They've been told that Russia is the number one power in the world and can't understand why it isn't already over.

I'm sure you do, but you posted pure propaganda. If you are an expert on Ukraine how can you not see it?

 

[Alset Srotom]

Are we really championing the attack of a civilian tanker? Oh the outrage if this was an attack by RU

 

[nativewolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689649823144890369

Thought it useful to see the pontoons they put up after the bridge attacks a couple of days ago. Russia can setup pontoons quickly and they work but are slow due to being narrow and likely just one lane for traffic and very strict slow speed limits. Anyhow, you can see the pontoons which means the bridge attacks did work. Slowly but surely Ukraine is edging into the logistics network. Not enough long range weapons to hit the helicopter bases yet, that will be somewhat decisive.

 

[DayTrippin]

I'm sure you do, but you posted pure propaganda. If you are an expert on Ukraine how can you not see it?

I am focused on the lede of the article. If it is accurate.

"[The Ukrainians are] still going to see, [whether] in the next couple of weeks, there is a chance of making some progress. But for them really to make the progress that would alter the balance to this conflict - I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely” - an unnamed “senior Western diplomat [told CNN]."

If this is accurate, which I am often concerned is suspect when you have unnamed sources, it wouldn't normally be as significant to me. Since it is coming from CNN, which I generally have little trust in, when you start to have them post something against whatever narrative they generally seem to support, then it makes me take notice.

From a lot of the coverage I've seen, it seems like CNN supported US and Western involvement in helping Ukraine. That is why it caught my eye. It would be like Fox news saying something against Trump 2 years ago. I have been able to validate yet that CNN reported this but sometimes it takes time for things to show up.

So if Ukraine can't make significant advances, then I am concerned the interest in supporting Ukraine will start to turn. As we all know, if Putin wins here, he won't stop. It likely will embolden China to take Taiwan.

 

[Tiger]

What corner would that be ?

Bottom line: Russia deserves to suffer all the misery they have brought down on UKR.

Yes and no. The Russian people are victims too, of propaganda and oppression, even though they rarely admit it. The challenge is, how to awaken them from the dream for everyone's benefit. But the Russians are in a deep hole.

 

[Unclepaul]

No matter the politics, reality is that thousands of good people are killing each other along battle lines. Families will have no Father coming home. Cities are being destroyed and money squandered.

 

[Buckminster]

WaPo piece:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/10/ukraine-national-mood-counteroffensive-gloom/

Recent not peace talk update:
‘We Call Each Other Bro’ – Ukraine Optimistic After Summit in Saudi
Ukraine’s diplomatic offensive made important advances in Saudi Arabia

 

[Tiger]

No matter the politics, reality is that thousands of good people are killing each other along battle lines. Families will have no Father coming home. Cities are being destroyed and money squandered.

So sad. The Wagner riot could have been the shortest path to peace.

 

[wdolson]

I agree. Especially having gone through divorce court.

There is also the saying one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. While I think most of us here would agree that Russians are the terrorist here, even more so given their actions in Irpin and Bucha.

There is still a large contingent of Russians who feel Russia was backed into a corner. Maybe not enough to justify this war but enough to justify some military response. I can't say I agree with them but I do understand where they are coming from. I've argued with friends who I've known for 30+ years and they have been so bombarded with propaganda and don't have good access to internet. Others aren't technically savvy enough to find news outside Russia. As a result, they've been fed the propaganda for years. The old adage applies, if you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it.

I gave up trying to change their mind. It is hopeless. Just as it is with a large portion of the Russian population. Now that husbands and sons aren't coming back from vacation in Ukraine, more people are waking up to the reality of the war in Ukraine and what a blunder it is. At the same time, some are saying what aren't we doing more. More as in the sense of dropping a nuke, dirty bomb or whatever other terrible weapons they might have in reserve. They've been told that Russia is the number one power in the world and can't understand why it isn't already over.

I read someone who was of the opinion a few weeks ago that a lot of Russians agree with Prigozhin that the war was a mistake, but Prigozhin also made the sunk cost argument that Russia has already spent so much that there is no choice but to continue and a lot of people go along with that too.

It's the South Indian or Burmese Monkey Trap problem.
monkey trap - Wiktionary, the free dictionary

Russia thought it was going to get a benefit from invading Ukraine, but once they grabbed on, they are now unwilling to let go. As the costs mount, the unwillingness to accept defeat grow too. Especially since they have been told for so long that they were such a great power.

The United States struggled to accept the defeat in Vietnam too. There are still some people who believe the US could have won if it did x, y, or z. As far as the US experience in Vietnam (as well as Iraq and Afghanistan) goes, it's virtually impossible for an outside force to put down an insurgency.

Russia has stumbled into one of the other Kobiyashi Maru scenarios of warfare: biting off more than they can chew. They brought too small a force to try and subdue a country that was willing to fight for their land. Wars like this can last a long time, but ultimately the invading power loses, many times catastrophically.

WW II is the shining example of this. All three of the major Axis powers made the same mistake and took on countries that ultimately would defeat them.

Not sure everyone has seen the damage caused by the two naval drones

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689779206601981952

the oil tanker and then the landing ship.

Huge fires in Moscow, again, tonight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689740069114990592

Not sure what but it was in large new looking warehouse.

It looks like they got that landing ship out of the water. I read that there was no dry dock large enough for it anywhere in the Black Sea except for at Sevastapol. I guess that was wrong. The ship is out of service for a while though.

Lot of things blowing up around Moscow lately. This could be Russians sabotaging the war effort. There is no evidence that it's Ukrainian drones.

 

[wdolson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689862471765331968

Something to bring up next time you hear people saying the US is wasting money on Ukraine. In the US 40 or so years ago there was a muffler company called Midas whose slogan was "pay me now or pay me later".

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689862471765331968

Something to bring up next time you hear people saying the US is wasting money on Ukraine. In the US 40 or so years ago there was a muffler company called Midas whose slogan was "pay me now or pay me later".

$24Bn is a drop in the ocean compared to the cleanup that US will end up paying the lions share of. It will be interesting watching how the media keep that quiet post Biden given that nearly all the other candidates are already playing nicely with Elon and therefore X.

At what point will the west realise that Russia keeping the land would save them those costs?

Difficult to see a path to peace without the west stepping up with more weapons ($200Bn needs to be spent and weapons provided and used in Spring/summer 2025 to start to mirror US building 4.5 ships per day peak in WWII). Russia are not sufficiently threatened. The longer Russia hold onto the land, the less they are likely to give up in a treaty. Winter is coming so it will be another year before either side progresses (if at all) right on election season.

 

[wdolson]

$24Bn is a drop in the ocean compared to the cleanup that US will end up paying the lions share of. It will be interesting watching how the media keep that quiet post Biden given that nearly all the other candidates are already playing nicely with Elon and therefore X.

At what point will the west realise that Russia keeping the land would save them those costs?

Difficult to see a path to peace without the west stepping up with more weapons ($200Bn needs to be spent and weapons provided and used in Spring/summer 2025 to start to mirror US building 4.5 ships per day peak in WWII). Russia are not sufficiently threatened. The longer Russia hold onto the land, the less they are likely to give up in a treaty. Winter is coming so it will be another year before either side progresses (if at all) right on election season.

Ultimately the end of the war hinges on what happens in Russia. It could be Putin leaving office (possibly feet first) and his successor blaming it all on him and suing for peace, it could mean revolt, or economic collapse or something else we haven't thought of. But this war will end when Russia quits.

 

[petit_bateau]

Not sure everyone has seen the damage caused by the two naval drones

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689779206601981952

the oil tanker and then the landing ship.

Huge fires in Moscow, again, tonight.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689740069114990592

Not sure what but it was in large new looking warehouse.

On both vessels the external hull damage is not really the point, though in both cases the hole is approx 3-8m2. The holes themselves can be plated over fairly easily and the photos I've seen don't show any observable gross structural damage apart from some localised wrinkling and splits. (I've seen bigger vessels with worse cracking going straight back into service with some very rudimentary patching). The Ropucha LST is approx 4,000 tonnes displacement and the Sig tanker is about 6,000 tonnes displacement. The Sig was an aviation and diesel 'products' tanker delivering fuel to the Russian military bases in Crimea and Syria, so definitely a valid target. The LST is a military vessel. Both of considerable military utility. There were some internal photos of the Sig showing the engine room with a metre or two of seawater in it, including being part way up a lot of the electrical cabinets. A lot will depend on whether the seawater penetrated anything in the Sig that cannot simply be dried out - hopefully it has reached things that need throwing away and replacing with unobtainable spares. Re the LST I think it came quite close to rolling over and the crew did well to save her - she was very down by the stern and badly listing. That suggests her machinery spaces are utterly flooded and so will likely require a very substantial strip & replace effort. Hopefully too much to be worth the effort. Either way they are out of activity for the time being, and occupying repair yard space and consuming resources.

--------------

Robotdyne

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689886891665940480

--------------

I have no idea whether the Russians distributed ther minelaying efforts evenly between successive defensive lines, or front-loaded them. Does anyone here know ?