Russia/Ukraine conflict

[MC3OZ]

Russia requested a meeting in the UN Security Council on the supply of weapons to Ukraine on August 17​

The Russian Embassy in the United States commented on the supply of shells with uranium to Ukraine - Oops Top

Вашингтон, 7 сентября, 2023, 03:59 — ИА Регнум. Посольство ... Read more

oopstop.com

To Putler:
View attachment 964156

As soon as they leave ALL of Ukraine, we will stop supplying weapons - problem solved.

 

[nativewolf]

Thread by @Tatarigami_UA on Thread Reader App

@Tatarigami_UA: Given the current focus on minefields and mines due to the ongoing counter-offensive, I decided to illustrate a representative minefield layout. While I am unable to share the actual document, I made...…

threadreaderapp.com

A very good read on the layout of a russian mine field

 

[petit_bateau]

Various links

Zelenskiy sacks military recruitment heads over frontline bribes scandal

Ukrainian president describes taking of cash from people who want to avoid conscription as form of treachery

www.theguardian.com

Kyiv’s drone strikes on Moscow mean Kremlin’s war can’t be ignored by Russians

Attacks keep up pressure on Vladimir Putin, although have become ‘not a big deal’ for many unmoved Russians

www.theguardian.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687565499805073408

https://twitter.com/x/status/1690035932655697920

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689998036347342848

 

[nativewolf]

good morning orcs

https://twitter.com/x/status/1690308005970038784

In other news

https://twitter.com/x/status/1690297467877679104

This area houses the Russin helicopter fleet supporting the southern area, it is the furthest from front lines (ie as far as orcs can keep them from Ukraine).

 

[nativewolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1690306052170887168

and another

 

[UkNorthampton]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1689998036347342848

Map (below): All roads except M14 from the east are from/to Crimea. The eastern Crimea routes are affected by bridge closures. The western ones might be soon. I don't think these roads are great in any case.

Whether this is a feint or real attack direction (across river) doesn't matter. Ukrainians can push if easy or use it to draw in Russian Federation resources from elsewhere. The logistics routes will be difficult for the Russian Federation with opportunities for Ukrainian forces to hit supplies en-route especially intermediate warehouses, bridges/chokepoints or traffic jams.

Seems to me that the Ukrainians have engineered a situation which strains Russian Federation resources, logistics - where Russian Federation will have to choose the least worse choices and all are useful for Ukraine. Bad for Russian federation morale too. Ukraine pulling Russian Federation forces towards the Ukrainian artillery.

If Kerch bridge (Crimea/Russia) is cut or throughput is reduced, it puts more strain on the routes through Melitopol (M14 from Berdyansk especially) to supply both Crimea and this new Dnipro river front. Routes through Tokmak are probably maxed out supplying the Zaporizhia front. E105/M18 through Melitopol to Crimea relies on the eastern crossings into northern Crimea which have already been affected.

Red - Russian Federation supply routes from Crimea (except M14 eastwards - bottleneck within long-range missile/artillery range).

Blue circles - reported Ukrainian activity.
Blue arrows of where Ukraine threaten or Russian Federation believe the Ukrainians might move to in order to block more routes (my speculation).
Blue semi-circle around a location Ukrainians could cross or that Russians might feel the need to protect.

I'm reminded of an anecdote from a US officer from WW2 when asked what he did in the war. It was something like "walked across Europe directing artillery on the Germans".

Unless Putin ends this, Russian Federation will be ground down forever (demographics, economic power, military prestige). This may be the hard Ukrainian calculation. Putin is helping to ensure Russia is never again a threat or significant power.

 

[unk45]

Looks like more rot in the Ruble. Let’s see where things pickup on the other side of this weekend.

Sorry if linked tweet does not load within this post.
Closing before this weekend, officially:
1 Dollar = 99 Rubles
1 Euro = 109 Rubles

However, (Russian) Tinkoff Bank:
1 Dollar = 111.35 Rubles
1 Euro = 119.9 Rubles
Noted the difference between the sell & buy prices ≈20% difference and typically it’s 1-2%
Post asserts banks don’t want rubles.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1690074590523891712

https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/1690074590523891712?s=46&t=jAgIffgC68qiSzAyPG4hEQ

Keep in mind that the Ruble is not a normal freely exchanged currency. Further, Tinkoff Bank is not a normal FX-centric bank, but is deeply concentrated in the middle-class Russian populace. They did have FX (Euro and US$) available in some of their ATM's until post-2014 changes took place, including a semi-forced change of control.

For all practical purposes today the Ruble is used as a reference currency for trade with willing countries (e.g. China, Iran, India, Maldives and even perhaps Brazil). Those transactions have negotiated rates and are exactly zero market-based. There are posted rates, and many currency market traders offer quotes. Frankly, the sell Ruble ones tend to reflect willing trades. The buy Ruble quotations are fictitious; there is exactly zero demand for Rubles.

In bilateral BRICS and other friendly countries the nominal Ruble prices are translated into other negotiable non-boycotted currencies, primarily Renminbi but also Indian Rupee, UAE Dirham, Brasil Real and some others. The oil and gas trade with European countries is primarily settled in Euro with artificial Rubles rates. The 2022 Russian policy is not 100% effective, but is dominant:

https://a9w7k6q9.stackpathcdn.com/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/The-EC-guidance-on-the-Russian-%E2%80%98gas-for-rubles-decree-.pdf

What all this means is that the pundits speculating about Ruble rates are deceiving themselves. While it is true that Russian Ruble denominated deals are tending towards reduced nominal exchange value, that is a tactical reaction to evolving buyer price sensitivity rather than a real change in market value.

In sum, when shipping costs rise and ocean shipping is increasingly difficult to insure price sensitivity rises.
Since logistics are becoming more difficult and buyer resistance increases, dependency grows on Indian entrepôt (albeit with the odd refining) and Maldives entrepôt with the traditional Dubai (an entrepôt for centuries: best reference 'Dubai' by Robin Moore. A lightly fictionalized story that seems totally fictional) tossed in. Russia has been deeply involved in this type of trade since Czarist days.

When we consider both the Ukraine invasion and our own Tesla interests we might benefit by realizing that Tesla sales, service and Superchargers ended out in Russia despite never having been officially sold there.
Years ago there was one of those Russian tesla entrepreneurs at a TMC meeting including visits to Fremont. Without belaboring the points the reality is that the Russian financial resources are much better than they appear to be.

All the stories of deficiency in technical talent, however, are true. Even though Russians still do work from abroad, the majority of talented young people have long since moved elsewhere. That, too, acts to minimize the relevance of the Ruble nominal value.

 

[iPlug]

@unk45
What motive do you make out of the Russian interest rate hike end of last month and forecast to raise again by next month? Their current reported headline inflation is low by their historical standards, so does not seem they are chasing that primarily.

...For all practical purposes today the Ruble is used as a reference currency for trade with willing countries (e.g. China, Iran, India, Maldives and even perhaps Brazil). Those transactions have negotiated rates and are exactly zero market-based. There are posted rates, and many currency market traders offer quotes. Frankly, the sell Ruble ones tend to reflect willing trades. The buy Ruble quotations are fictitious; there is exactly zero demand for Rubles....

Indian Rupee and Chinese Yuan market based rate history shows erosion of the Ruble similar to that of the Dollar or Euro. Understand the biggest players like China and India negotiate their rates, but wonder how different they really are than market rates. These are transactional players - historically China and India have not been looking to give any trading partners a free lunch.

Could you point me towards a link for recent/historical posted rates for transactions between the Ruble and others listed here?

 

[unk45]

@unk45
What motive do you make out of the Russian interest rate hike end of last month and forecast to raise again by next month? Their current reported headline inflation is low by their historical standards, so does not seem they are chasing that primarily.



Indian Rupee and Chinese Yuan market based rate history shows erosion of the Ruble similar to that of the Dollar or Euro. Understand the biggest players like China and India negotiate their rates, but wonder how different they really are than market rates. These are transactional players - historically China and India have not been looking to give any trading partners a free lunch.

Could you point me towards a link for recent/historical posted rates for transactions between the Ruble and others listed here?

There are several sources for most tradable currencies. examples are:

CFD Trading | Online Commodity CFD Trading | OANDA

CFD - or Contract for Difference - is a financial instrument that allows traders to invest in an asset class - discover CFD trading with a global leader in CFD solutions.

www.oanda.com

https://www.fxproinvestments.com

Despite the absence of a buy side for Rubles, there are quotes for most major currencies. The Russian Central Bank has a senior staff that are excellent, who understand that displaying prices has immeasurable political and economic force. As I earlier mentioned they manage the rates in order to facilitate their foreign trade partner comfort. That includes managing expectations, so displaying a weakening Ruble allows them to lower effective export prices and increase effective import prices.

Those policies end out being displayed in global FX trading rooms on their handy Bloomberg or other terminals. That is entertaining since nearly every informed person knows the only Ruble buy-side is the artificial rate set by the Central Bank. note they will not agree to any transaction at those rates: Foreign Currency Market | Bank of Russia.

As to your second question: there are no market rates, despite the widespread quotations. Clue: try to sell Rubles.
As to your first question: maintaining a stable open facade is of high importance to Russian monetary authorities. Nearly all actual transactions are conducted strictly in Russian official channels, using only a couple specific official banks as execution. Those are always established by contractual terms.
A related one you did not ask is how are market rates set for small country currencies that have are exchange rates? To that one, nearly always they are by cross-rates typically US$ but often Euro. In one example: UAE Dirham to BR$ has no direct rate so it would be UAE-US$ xUS$-BR$. The quotations are not made using the cross but the transactions and pricing are. Settlement typically can be direct, but even that on occasion involves the intermediary currency.

All this arcane stuff (I'm only giving simplistic highlights) is crucial to understanding how Russia is managing its war financing and economy. In the Ruble case the US$ is no longer used in cross due to sanctions. That means that the specific transactions between Russia and Iran, Moldova, India, Slovakia, Germany and elsewhere are treated explicitly through contractual price terms. Purported 'market rates' are not used in these transactions. Thus the buy side of Rubles is an artifice of these agreements. That renders these rates the world looks at so eagerly even more useful fiction. Repeating: there is no open market buy side for Rubles.

 

[AudubonB]

I should be the one with the answers to this but I’m not. A long-gone specialty.

What is the volume of Russian gold production nowadays and whither goes it? Almost directly to to bulk up the S. Asia and to a lesser extent the MidEast trades?

 

[iPlug]

My suspicion on the Central Bank of Russia interest rate hike a few weeks ago and the forecast of more soon to come is that Russia suspects inflation is imminent so are trying to get ahead of the curve with their rapidly growing war spending.

At the beginning of the war, the spike in oil prices raised Russian export revenues which at that time led to their record trade surplus. But since then oil prices greatly receded + sanctions (however much they are working) and their trade surplus shrunk greatly while their import demands have risen with Russian government military spending on imported materials.

Russia will report GDP +growth this year which may come as a surprise to some, but is a normal feature of war economies at this stage. Yet this sort of thing drives inflation and many other undesirable more serious things like the mentioned flight of intellectuals/skilled workers which does long term damage to the economy.

Of course Russian oil is sold in foreign currencies so now that will effectively buy Russia more inflated rubles at home. Short term, the cheaper ruble helps Russia finance its war machine. So it’s unclear if Russia is doing this on purpose to the extent that they have control of the situation.

 

[unk45]

I should be the one with the answers to this but I’m not. A long-gone specialty.

What is the volume of Russian gold production nowadays and whither goes it? Almost directly to to bulk up the S. Asia and to a lesser extent the MidEast trades?

Russia Gold Production, 1992 – 2024 | CEIC Data

Russia Gold Production was reported at 310,000.000 kg in Dec 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 310,000.000 kg for Dec 2022.

www.ceicdata.com

Russia: top gold export destinations 2022 | Statista

The United Kingdom was the leading export destination of gold from Russia in 2022.

www.statista.com

If we believe Reuters the UAE has suddenly become dominant. A friend who has been involved in Dubai gold retailing told me Russia is now his primary supplier because of lower prices. He has been known to exaggerate, but this time it seems likely.

Exclusive: From Russia with gold: UAE cashes in as sanctions bite

United Arab Emirates has become a key trade hub for Russian gold since Western sanctions cut Russia's more traditional export routes.

www.reuters.com

 

[AudubonB]

That comes out to 10.3MM troy oz in one year, or plus/minus US$20 billion of an easily traded material. Effectively a three-way tie for the lead in production, with Australia and China.

 

[unk45]

That comes out to 10.3MM troy oz in one year, or plus/minus US$20 billion of an easily traded material. Effectively a three-way tie for the lead in production, with Australia and China.

For anyone who does not know Dubai has been an entrepôt dealing with India, Pakistan and Iran for hundreds of years. Historically they’ve dealt with gold, silver and pearls, the latter produced by several Gulf states. They traded Gold and silver for industrial and agricultural materials and also money. The bank I was with there had those as primary business, partially supplanted by oilfield supply and petroleum services. Russia has had close relationships with several States in the region, including Iran. The banks of the Gulf states have been carefully welcoming to Russian clientele.

The economic role of Dubai, in particular, with Russia now is simply returning to their traditional expertise. Iran appears less in public data but is also deeply entwined with both Dubai and Russia. For the region, and Dubai in particular, Russian wealth has found it’s way to property, including some serious high-end properties, as well as countless companies, both shell and operating.

Given traditional Gulf practices it is certain that much activity in such categories as aircraft parts, computer parts and chips is never officially reported. Perhaps oddly gold production and destinations tends to be fairly consistently public data.

note: my direct involvement in these matters was several decades ago, when even the USSR-era Russians were present in some areas. I do maintain contact with some of my contacts from that era, so I am reasonably confident of the accuracy of this post.

 

[BitJam]

Let's talk about Russia and the moon ...

The Soviet Union went to the moon in 1976. Russia's never been there. Russia as a government has never been to the moon. The only governments that have landed on the moon are the United States, China, and the Soviet Union.​

​

Russia is attempting to do that right now, this minute. It is underway. Landing is supposed to be around August 23rd.​

​

[...] This has real international implications. Russia has never landed on the moon. This is a big deal for them. If this doesn't go well, it's really poor timing. Traveling through space is difficult. Right now Russia needs a win. They need to show they are a major player in the international community. They need this. [...] This has to go well for them, Anything that goes wrong with this ... well ... it's because of the war.​

Personally, I'm very pro-science and pro-space exploration but I'm reining in my enthusiasm for this particular mission. I wish them the worst of luck. If this fails spectacularly then it could end up saving lives. I imagine it will go as planned or close enough for Russia to call it a win, but I'm hoping for an embarrassing failure.

 

[nativewolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1690653534524481536

This is fairly significant, I think the minefields are very weak in that area.

 

[Fred42]

Let's talk about Russia and the moon ...

The Soviet Union went to the moon in 1976. Russia's never been there. Russia as a government has never been to the moon. The only governments that have landed on the moon are the United States, China, and the Soviet Union.​

​

Russia is attempting to do that right now, this minute. It is underway. Landing is supposed to be around August 23rd.​

​

[...] This has real international implications. Russia has never landed on the moon. This is a big deal for them. If this doesn't go well, it's really poor timing. Traveling through space is difficult. Right now Russia needs a win. They need to show they are a major player in the international community. They need this. [...] This has to go well for them, Anything that goes wrong with this ... well ... it's because of the war.​

Personally, I'm very pro-science and pro-space exploration but I'm reining in my enthusiasm for this particular mission. I wish them the worst of luck. If this fails spectacularly then it could end up saving lives. I imagine it will go as planned or close enough for Russia to call it a win, but I'm hoping for an embarrassing failure.

Reminiscent of the US moon landing during the Vietnam war.

 

[SageBrush]

Let's talk about Russia and the moon ...

I saw that news, and wondered about the timing from a money POV. My first thought was 'I'm surprised that Russian is spending money on space exploration while they have an expensive war to underwrite, not to mention the stresses on their economy from sanctions, the drop in oil prices, and loss of productive manpower.'

I still tend in that direction, but perhaps the flip side is that Russia has sunk costs and unused rockets (thanks, Tesla!) they might as well use in this manner.

 

[iPlug]

Russian moon business is likely for domestic propaganda, to continue to feed Kool-Aid to the Russian masses of them being some great technological/advanced civilization on par with the West. Alternate universe stuff... A 50+ year old re-run, even if successful, remains unremarkable to those outside Russia.

 

[madodel]

Wagner’s prisoner of war: A Ukrainian soldier’s 46-day nightmare

Russian mercenaries captured Ilia Mykhalchuk outside Bakhmut. They amputated his arms in a dark basement, he says, and subjected him to mind-bending psychological abuse.