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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
If UKR gets Crimea back, then that would be the end of Putin. He'd better not drink any tea, or walk by any windows.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Sadly so much of the world is moving in the wrong direction.I can't see how there could have been a war if Russia was a Democracy. So that seem to be one obvious thing here. And this also seems to be a 'not so small' problem with regards to China – rated at 9/100(!) by Freedom House.
China: Freedom in the World 2023 Country Report | Freedom House
See the Freedom in the World 2023 score and learn about democracy and freedom in China.freedomhouse.org
And India has been moving considerably in the wrong direction. Freedom House started using this X/100 rating in 2017. So it's very easy to see the change that has occurred between 2017 and 2013. In 2017 India was ranked at 77/100. Today in 2023 they have fallen to 66/100. That no longer earns them the label "FREE". Instead they get "PARTLY FREE".
India: Freedom in the World 2023 Country Report | Freedom House
See the Freedom in the World 2023 score and learn about democracy and freedom in India.India: Freedom in the World 2017 Country Report | Freedom House
See the Freedom in the World 2017 score and learn about democracy and freedom in India.
BitJam
Active Member
Again, I disagree with you. They are saying that endless war and endless problems at the border are not going over well with the US electorate and if Biden wants to win in 2024 then he needs to change his rhetoric. I can 100% guarantee you that if Biden expressed what Ben and Tommy want then he would stand no chance of getting elected again. You seem to be confusing what they think is the best rhetoric needed to win with their own personal opinions. It should be no surprise these are often vastly different.
The fact that support for aid to Ukraine is trending down in the EU is well known. For example:
European Support for Ukraine Aid Is Plummeting
European support for Ukraine aid is plummeting
Just 24 percent of EU citizens "totally agree" with providing Ukraine with money for weapons, according to a new poll.
www.newsweek.com
Ben and Tommy reported on facts based on polls. Reading polling data and converting it into simple English along with recommendations of what to say and do is the job of many political boffins. You may not like what they're saying but that doesn't make it untrue. If your mistrust of their summaries of what the polls say is so deep then this channel is definitely not for you. Stick with reading the polls yourself and drawing your own conclusions.
BitJam
Active Member
Thanks for the correction! I agree with you that Obama's foreign policy could have been much better.
I mean the US gets actively involved in the war and US air power pounds Russia's forces into the ground. Politically that's not going to happen.
At the start of the war Ukraine had around 80 trained fighter pilots. They could probably scrounge up another 20-30 from retired pilots who were still in good enough health to pass the flight physical. They have lost some of those pilots already.
To get more fighter pilots they need to train them from scratch, which takes two years if it's going to be done right. You can train a pilot to perform the basics of flying the plane in about 6 months, but they are just going to get killed if you send them into combat.
The training for F-16 pilots is in three batches. The first batch were trained pilots who were fluent in English. They have already graduated the transition training. The second batch are trained pilots who were not fluent in English and they are about halfway through training now. The US is taking a batch of untrained pilots and training them up and that training it to start in the next few weeks. That is long term training and those pilots will be ready in 2025. Until 2025 all Ukraine will have is the pilots from the first two batched.
His administration was a bit too idealistic and naive. I do think it was better than the administrations that came immediately before and immediately after, but that's a pretty low bar to clear.
Ukraine is getting a jump start on F-16 pilot training with a very resourceful use of VR simulation software. I can guarantee that it won't take 24 months to qualify Ukranianian pilots and maintenance crew on the F-16.
Exclusive: Ukrainian pilots get virtual jump on F-16 training
OUTSIDE KYIV, UKRAINE — Ukrainian pilots are honing their skills in virtual F-16 fighter jet cockpits as they anxiously await approval to travel abroad for training. A Ukrainian pilot gave a …
thehill-com.cdn.ampproject.org
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I haven't see this mentioned on the Forum yet:
Ukraine 'likely' behind strikes in Sudan, Ukrainian military source says | CNN (Sep 20, 2023)
Payback'za `suka
Ukraine 'likely' behind strikes in Sudan, Ukrainian military source says | CNN (Sep 20, 2023)
Payback'za `suka
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Ukraine is getting a jump start on F-16 pilot training with a very resourceful use of VR simulation software. I can guarantee that it won't take 24 months to qualify Ukranianian pilots and maintenance crew on the F-16.
Exclusive: Ukrainian pilots get virtual jump on F-16 training
OUTSIDE KYIV, UKRAINE — Ukrainian pilots are honing their skills in virtual F-16 fighter jet cockpits as they anxiously await approval to travel abroad for training. A Ukrainian pilot gave a …
Thanks for that article!
@wdolson: Do you have sources that back all those numbers and claims. I'm guessing more folks than me would find that interesting...
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
And yet another Terrorist Attack by the Russian Dictator.
www.ukrinform.net
At least 47 dead as Russian missile hits grocery store in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region
A Russian missile hit a grocery store in the Kupiansk district of Kharkiv region, killing more than 47 people. — Ukrinform.
www.ukrinform.net
KBF
Model X owner (formerly Cdn Signature Model S)
^Ukrainians all want this war to end as well... By reclaiming 100% of their territory. That's the Pro-Ukrainian resolution. If Crimea is retaken, Putin's falling out of a window (or at the least maybe one of his body doubles so he can retire to some island).
I know there are some who use this rhetoric to want to end the war by ceding territory to Russia, but 'end the war' doesn't have to infer this result. This is a more short-sighted position to take, pretty much exclusively non-Ukrainians.
There is a large influential group, namely the military industrial complex, that is massively profiting off of this war. They'd love for it to last indefinitely. It's one of the industries that profit off the destruction of their goods, and love indefinite demand. These forces also need to be resisted, because they extend human suffering in pursuit of profits.
Another motivation to extend that somewhat overlaps the previous paragraph are those who want to extend the war to eliminate Russia's military reserves. It sounds noble on the surface, but I believe this is also rife with unintended consequences. Ukrainians are viewed as mere pawns who are expendable.
In any case, the quote you recorded can reasonably mean, for pro-Ukrainian/anti-suffering groups, that the rhetoric of "as long as it takes" can be a smuggle for "we plan to extend this war far beyond what's needed for Ukraine to actually win - we don't care about Ukraine, we just want to make money and take down Russia" - when one has no clear goals and won't state a win condition, it's because one is either incompetent, or have goals that they know are not publicly/politically/ethically acceptable.
Again, I disagree with you. They are saying that endless war and endless problems at the border are not going over well with the US electorate and if Biden wants to win in 2024 then he needs to change his rhetoric. I can 100% guarantee you that if Biden expressed what Ben and Tommy want then he would stand no chance of getting elected again. You seem to be confusing what they think is the best rhetoric needed to win with their own personal opinions. It should be no surprise these are often vastly different.
The fact that support for aid to Ukraine is trending down in the EU is well known. For example:
European Support for Ukraine Aid Is Plummeting
European support for Ukraine aid is plummeting
Just 24 percent of EU citizens "totally agree" with providing Ukraine with money for weapons, according to a new poll.
Ben and Tommy reported on facts based on polls. Reading polling data and converting it into simple English along with recommendations of what to say and do is the job of many political boffins. You may not like what they're saying but that doesn't make it untrue. If your mistrust of their summaries of what the polls say is so deep then this channel is definitely not for you. Stick with reading the polls yourself and drawing your own conclusions.
I think you're avoiding the fact that if a poll is not based on reliable data to begin with, the only conclusions you can draw are about what those who are manipulating the data want you to believe. And that's laughably transparent... That's why Russian poll data is useless in determining what actual Russians believe, or draw any conclusions about popular support of the Putin regime or the war. Garbage in = garbage out.
Oh boy, now I've pushed back on both sides arguing against each other...
Unfortunately searching now for the number of pilots in the Ukrainian Air Force turns up a zillion pages talking about the training of F-16 pilots without a lot of information on the pre-war strength. There is this that shows Ukraine had 14 Su-24, 31 Su-25, 37 Mig-29, and 34 Su-27 when the war began.
Ukraine - Air Force Equipment
That's 114 aircraft.
Ukraine lost 62 in 2022 and 7 this year. That's more than 1/2 the original force. It has been supplemented with handfuls of aircraft from NATO countries. I'm not sure of the exact number and can't find a source, but it's less than the 69 lost.
Ukraine may have had more pilots than airframes when the war began, but it would have been definitely less than 2X, maybe as high as 1.5X, but probably no more than 130 to 150 pilots. In some cases the pilots survived the loss of their plane and some were lost on the ground, but Ukraine lost the air crew many times when the planes were shot down. If the pilot wasn't killed he may have been injured too badly to fly again.
If Ukraine still has 60 or 70 operational aircraft, they need pilots who remain in those planes to fly them. The pilots available for F-16 conversion training are those on top of the ones staying with the older aircraft. Ukraine has been training new pilots during the war and some of the pilots sent for F-16 training may be green pilots just out of basic training which is better than someone with no training at all, but they still need to learn how to fly combat.
A number of those pilots remaining are not going to be fit for F-16s. The F-16 can pull higher Gs than the Su-24 and Su-25. Pilots trained on those aircraft may not be physically capable of passing through F-16 training. Ukraine only had 71 fighters at the start of the war, the Su-27 and MiG-29 have the most applicable characteristics to the F-16.
The wash out rate for the experienced pilots will probably be nil or very, very low. Someone who has flown combat has proven themselves as capable and can adapt to the new aircraft. Some percentage of the green pilots are going to wash out of training. In the US military 1/3 to 1/2 of pilot candidates wash out. Everyone goes through the same basic flight training, then they get sorted for where they best slot in and then do specialist training. Some people are shown to be unfit for the G forces you need to handle as a fighter pilot and wash out of the fighter program ending up in bombers or transports. Some are shown to just lack the instincts to be fighter pilots. People who prefer to be more deliberate and measured are better suited to transports or bombers. People who are quick thinking tacticians are better suited to fighters. Fighter pilots also need the reflexes of a champion gamer.
My numbers are estimates based on what I know about how military air units are usually organized and how many aircraft the Ukrainians started the war with as well as the losses. While there is information out there on the strength of units in a number of air forces, there is very little on the Ukrainian air force. Places like Wikipedia has the units and what they fly, but nothing on how a unit is normally constituted.
For example a Battle of Britain era RAF Fighter Command squadron usually had a strength of 12 aircraft with a few spares if they were available. If they flew at full strength they would be putting 12 aircraft in the air. They would usually have about 18-20 pilots. Some aircraft would be assigned to the most experienced pilots, but the rest of the squadron would have the planes float between the remaining pilots. Most pilots would fly one day and be stood down for a day, or fly two days with one off depending on how many aircraft were available and how many pilots were fit for flying. Something as minor as a head cold could ground a pilot for a few days.
Basically the Ukrainian air force is very small. They may have had extra pilots or they may not have. Ukraine didn't have the lavish budget of a large country to keep a large air force flying with a large inventory of pilots to fly them. Ukraine inherited a large air force from the USSR and ended up scrapping or selling off most of it in the 1990s because they couldn't afford such a large force. I am certain that they are not going to be able to put a large number of F-16s into combat for some time, even with a lot of help. We may see as many as 60 pilots trained up in the next year. But then there will be a gap of a year or more until more pilots are trained.
There are some rumors about Ukrainians trying to get trained on the A-10. The A-10 is capable of carrying almost all NATO armament, so it could be used as a missile launch platform. It could become the Storm Shadow launcher. In its intended role as a direct ground attack aircraft it's obsolete. The air threat environment over Ukraine is too dangerous. The Su-24 and Su-25 pilots could probably transition to the A-10 relatively easily.
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
So it's basically based on assumptions and no sources at all... Seems to be A LOT of room for PLENTY of unknowns here...
The key word here being "may"...
I'll just add one more thing about the underlined above:
This too (as in the underlined above) is also just based on one or several assumptions.
The F-16 is a 9G aircraft.
How do we know that the UKR Air Force doesn't have a 'must be capable of-demand' of being able to sustain at least 9G for all their pilots regardless of what one- or two-seater jet they are flying for the contingency that UKR Air Force would need to backfill pilots for the Mig-29 or the Su-27?...
Also: The Su-24 is a 6G aircraft. It can probably be over-G'd to 7G at least in a pinch. And the Su-25 is a 6,5G aircraft. It can probably be over-G'd to at least 7,5G or even 8G in a pinch. So the step up to 9G isn't that 'significant' at all... All pilots for the Su-24 & Su-25 could be required to pass regular extended 9G sessions in a centrifuge and perhaps even the occasional in seat flight training at 8-9G in either the Mig-29 or the Su-27...
Also: I'm going to guess that the Ukrainians took a similar approach to their Air Force pilots as the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has always(?) done. The IAF has no kind of 'affirmative action' what so ever. Only the very best suited in their population can be selected to fly fighter and/or attack for the IAF. Why? Because their entire nation literally depends on the IAF. And we are not talking about WW2 era Battle of Britain here, we are talking about this very hour... If the IAF were to get wiped out, then that would be bad. But in the case of the IAF being wiped out I guess the US would have 'stepped in' by that time (at the latest).
But as we have all seen the Ukrainians did not have that 'luxury'...
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It's ludicrous to think that Ukraine has significantly more trained pilots than I have surmised. Any air force that trains significantly more pilots than aircraft available is wasting resources. Odds are much greater that the pilot to aircraft ratio is lower for Ukraine than the air forces of wealthier countries.
There are a lot of unknowns. Believing that there are enough trained pilots to equip a large force is wishful thinking. I found an article when I was almost finished with this that adds some information.
Again because it would be ridiculous. The intersection of people who want to fly combat aircraft, are capable of getting through basic training, and have the physical characteristics to handle the g forces of fighters is very small. To require that of all pilots would be putting an extra limit on your air force you don't need to do. Just limit the g limit to perspective high g fighters.
Additionally the mission training for different types of aircraft pilots are different. This is especially true of Soviet/Russian aircraft. The Su-24/Su-25 are dedicated ground attack aircraft. The MiG-29 and Su-27 are designed for air to air. The Soviet/Russian doctrine doesn't use multi-role fighters like the west has. The MiGs have been used in the multi-role, I suspect the ones that have were ones that came from the west and had been updated with western avionics.
Su-24/Su-25 pilots are only trained in ground attack because that's the only thing the planes can do. The pilots don't need the g tolerances of the fighter pilots.
The step from 6 g to 9 g is very significant. 9g is basically the limits of human endurance, but 6g is just brutal on a human body.
Israel is a richer country than Ukraine who has been getting military aid from the US for decades. The IAF has been building this force over 70 years. Ukraine doesn't have the resources Israel has.
Ukraine has trained with NATO before the war, but a search for stories about the air force before the war indicates that there are more Ukrainian pilots trained than I thought because they have been hemorrhaging trained pilots, but their training is not great, they didn't get many flight hours before the war:
Jet pilots leave Ukraine’s Air Force en masse, threatening security
Many of those pilots who left have probably been brought back into the air force and some of them are probably going through F-16 training now. The pool of potential F-16 pilots is bigger than I thought, there are roughly 140 pilots (not all fighter pilots) who left in the years before the war.
Israel is also a much smaller country than Ukraine. Both in size and population. If the limitation is the number of men and women with the physical and mental attributes to be fighter pilots, then why does Israel have so many? I think we'll see a surge of capable young Ukranians very eager to get in the cockpits of the F-16 and any other gen 4/5 fighter aircraft to defend their homeland. And as is typical in wartime, the training will be expedited.
navguy12
Active Member
So that is the going to become the official story.
I suppose if Putin claimed the jet flew too close to the sun and the wings started to melt, that would be the official story. /s
Onboard grenade blast caused plane crash that killed Wagner boss, claims Putin
Russian president suggests Yevgeny Prigozhin was on drugs when he died in explosion on private jet from Moscow to St Petersburg in August
www.theguardian.com
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Part of that answer is that IAF fighter pilots stay active until a relatively late age. It is not that Israel trains up that many pilots more per capita per year, it is that the country has a ~ 20 year accumulation of quasi wartime enlistment.
Or at least they did, until the machinations of the anti-democratic Gov led droves of reserve pilots to stop volunteering for ongoing training in protest.
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