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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Ukraine has done some great incursions into Crimea lately… But I was hoping for a steady increase in things near Moscow going kaboom around now.

Russian blowing up it’s own fighters aside, that is.
Suspect we will see more Moscow events come wintertime when Russia again tries to destroy Ukrainian civilian energy infrastructure (electricity/heating). It won’t go unanswered this time.
 
Instigating breakaway regions in former Soviet Republics is paying off for Putler at least in the case of a new naval base on Black Sea a little further away from Ukraine where he can hide his ships. At least until a way is found to sink them.

Abkhazia: Russia to build naval base in Georgian separatist region, says local leader

I would speculate that Ukraine can figure out weapons to blow up a yet to be started naval base sooner than Russian can build that base.
 
Hamas just bought themselves a lifeftime subscription for lawn and garden care:


Was Hamas trying to force the issue with Russian & Iranian assistance? This will end poorly for all three parties...

Great. I started a new thread Israel/Hamas conflict

It would be nice to keep this current thread focused on Ukraine and not other politics.
 
Interested to see if Israeli defense technology transfer to Ukraine happens in the coming weeks/months. This, anyway, if it is now more obvious and expedient to Israeli leadership and their constituency that Russia is directly or indirectly facilitating attacks on Israel.

Putin likely estimated with his meddling, actual weapons transfers now from Israel to Ukraine are likely to be limited given Israel's pressing local needs. But Israel will probably be a lot more open to technology transfer - Ukraine and others can handle the production.

Long game it is.
 
As Ukraine defends its very existence against Russia, the UJE Timeline serves to counter the malicious and false narratives about Ukraine and its history. The Timeline demonstrates that Ukraine is home to diverse peoples and, for centuries, one of the world's oldest and largest Jewish communities.

Via a link found in a full page advertisement in yesterday’s Toronto Star, this is an effort to quell some Russian disinformation:

 
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Interested to see if Israeli defense technology transfer to Ukraine happens in the coming weeks/months. This, anyway, if it is now more obvious and expedient to Israeli leadership and their constituency that Russia is directly or indirectly facilitating attacks on Israel.

Putin likely estimated with his meddling, actual weapons transfers now from Israel to Ukraine are likely to be limited given Israel's pressing local needs. But Israel will probably be a lot more open to technology transfer - Ukraine and others can handle the production.

Long game it is.

Israel also has a lot of old equipment in storage that they will probably never use again. They had 1350 M60 tanks that were locally modernized and called the Magach. They have modified some to support vehicles, but they put a lot into storage. Freeing up a couple of hundred of these would be a significant boost to Ukraine. The Magach isn't on par with the Leopard II, but it is better than the Leopard I. Perfectly adequate for what tanks are being used for in Ukraine.

Perhaps Japan is doing this, in part, as some sort of counter weight (signal) to China?


Getting Ukraine in their corner long term is a good strategy. After this war is over Ukraine is going to have the most experience in fighting a near term opponent in the developed world.

Surprise, surprise... [irony]


Now that Ukraine has opened access to its ports again there is less need to export grain by rail. The issue over which there was tension is less critical now. (Shipping grain by rail is still safer, but putting it on ships in the Black Sea is still far more efficient and politically less contentious).
 
There are a lot of machinations going on behind the scenes. Who knows exactly what's going to happen.

The votes are there to fund the Ukraine effort quite easily, but the Speaker of the House has the power to control whether bills get to the floor for a vote or what's in the bills that do get to the floor. The Speaker can act as a gatekeeper. That's how the funding for Ukraine got pulled from the funding bill last week. McCarthy had made a deal with the White House and the Senate (both Democrats and Republicans) to pass the Ukraine funding with the bill to fund the government, but because Gaetz was threatening to challenge McCarthy's speaker ship, McCarthy pulled the Ukraine funding and Gaetz challenged his leadership anyway. The Democrats were prepared to vote to retain him if he kept his bargain, but when he pulled the Ukraine funding they knew he had to go.

The Democrats are talking to the dozen Republicans who are very anti-Jordan about a compromise candidate who would be at least responsible and fund the things that need funding for the next year. I also have the feeling that the White House are brain storming ideas to get things to Ukraine if the funding isn't allocated. Anything the White House does on its own will have limits though.

There are a lot of moving parts.



I suspect the mods will probably want to do that. If they allow it at all.
The US dissaray is, of course, a major challenge for Ukraine. We must also consider strengthening ultra-right anti-Ukraine support groups in Germany, France, Italy, Greece, Spain and even in Japan and a wide array of countries. Coupled with climate disasters affecting poorer countries disproportionally driving nearly global refugee crises the ability and willingness to continue supporting Ukraine is becoming less creaky assured than it seemed to be a few months ago.

Without question these factors mostly do NOT suggest widespread support for Putin’s Russia either. Those same issues are causing economic and political pressures nearly everywhere, witness the present China challenges, and even Brazilian President Lula being seduced by cheap Russian fertilizer and copious Chinese support and investments. Belt and Road has been a massive positive force for China throughout the world. How much is all that translating to support for Putin? Is Saudi Arabia rapprochement with Iran further exacerbating the potential Putin support?

With other threads for Netanyahu‘s war with Hamas we need no commentary here other than to note that political instability coupled with far extreme desires to destroy is becoming the clear and present danger, from Argentina to Zimbabwe and many in between. Support for Ukraine is certainly strong among EU major country leaders and most of NATO. Still, wavering in Poland, growing hostility in Slovakia, continuing dithering by Hungary and Turkey all are increasing pressure.

My question for those better informed than am I is whether all this is genuinely increasing risk or is perhaps not much change, just increased visibility. As I see it, all this is reflecting disintegration of the United Nations strength coincident with rapidly reducing post WWII cooperative agreements.

Whither Ukraine?
 
Why do I begin and end with the incomparable Tom Lehrer’s 1965 lyrics here?

First we got the bomb and that was good
‘Cause we love peace and brotherhood.
Then Russia got the bomb, but that’s OK,
‘Cause the balance of power’s maintained that way.

Who’s next?

France got the bomb, but don’t you grieve,
‘Cause they’re on our side…
.I believe.
China got the bomb, but have no fear - they can’t wipe us out for at least five years.

Who’s next
?

Because, although I laud Kyiv’s efforts at utilizing Ukraine’s need, drive and skillsets, I also cannot but foresee a future wherein the planet has yet one more source of armaments.

That’s good for world peace, right?😩

So sleep well, my darlings,
The sandman may linger.
We know our buddies
Won’t give us the finger


On edit:
For those whose life has been diminished by heretofore not having been exposed to the greatest political-satirist of the 20th c, whence come the lines above:


 
Tom Lehrer is a classic and still kicking at age 95!

Ukraine had "the bomb". As part of the Budapest Memorandum, they agreed to give up their nuclear weapons in exchange for guarantees of their sovereignty from the original signed 3 nuclear powers - the Russian Colonial Empire (I mean Russian Federation), the U.S., and the U.K..

Ukraine, the U.S., and the U.K. kept up their end of the deal but Russia most certainly did not.
 
Why do I begin and end with the incomparable Tom Lehrer’s 1965 lyrics here?

First we got the bomb and that was good
‘Cause we love peace and brotherhood.
Then Russia got the bomb, but that’s OK,
‘Cause the balance of power’s maintained that way.

Who’s next?

France got the bomb, but don’t you grieve,
‘Cause they’re on our side…
.I believe.
China got the bomb, but have no fear - they can’t wipe us out for at least five years.

Who’s next
?

Because, although I laud Kyiv’s efforts at using Ukraine’s need, drive and skillsets, I also cannot but foresee a future wherein the planet has yet one more source of armaments.

That’s good for world peace, right?😩

So sleep well, my darlings,
The sandman may linger.
We know our buddies
Won’t give us the finger

Tom Lehrer's comments and lyrics have been bubbling through my head lately too. It really is telling that some of his songs written 60 years ago still seem relevant today.

It’s been a year today since Ukraine knocked out a span; I’m wondering why the Kerch bridge still standing? Surely Ukraine could knock another span out while a Russian supply train is crossing it.

Russia has increased its defenses around the bridge. Getting to it is more difficult now.