Russia/Ukraine conflict

[EatsShoots]

With all this happening do we really think Ukraine support continuing as long as it takes is in any way assured? Even in the EU, leadership is firm. Can we say all the members are so firm?

Certainly not. I totally get the mod admonishing for this going off course, but in fact politics is now very tightly intertwined with Ukraine and its future is to be significantly guided by the west's increasing fascist tendencies.

You will not find a clearer cut example of contemporary imperialism than what russia is doing now, and yet a country that was recently almost totally unified against the soviet union (usa) now has large percentages of its people who are either neutral or actively rooting for textbook fascism and genocide.

 

[madodel]

Will Avdiivka be Putler's Stalingrad? No retreat, only attack and death.

Putin loses entire brigade as Avdiivka attack stalls | Frontline

 

[adiggs]

Certainly not. I totally get the mod admonishing for this going off course, but in fact politics is now very tightly intertwined with Ukraine and its future is to be significantly guided by the west's increasing fascist tendencies.

You will not find a clearer cut example of contemporary imperialism than what russia is doing now, and yet a country that was recently almost totally unified against the soviet union (usa) now has large percentages of its people who are either neutral or actively rooting for textbook fascism and genocide.

The things you say are true (politics is tightly intertwined, no clearer example of contemporary imperialism, USA reaction). No disagreement from me.

However what I look for in this thread is primarily the ongoing developments of the war itself, along with analysis people have regarding the prosecution of the war itself. The other stuff is true, but there is a lot of other stuff in the world that is true, and yet does not belong in this thread.


Some degree of politics of the war, history of war more broadly, history of Russia, Ukraine, ... as it applies in this context, economics, opinions, ... is inevitable on this topic. At least for me, this being the Investor's forum and all, there is a subtext to the thread and the posts herein, that we're mutually keeping ourselves aware of what is going on in the war itself as a mechanism for protecting our investments. Some of us, and I am one, got caught out at the beginning of the war. Nobody's fault but my own - I make my own decisions and experience my own consequences - and following a thread about the latest news and analysis of the war itself is one of the things I'm doing to be better informed, and better able to account for these developments and possible ramifications for my financial life.

That isn't all that I get out of the thread, and I do enjoy many of the brief tangents into closely related topics. But when the thread goes off into politics for pages, we've left what I see as the focus. We have definitely left behind the primary value that I get from the thread.


Of course - I'm not a Moderator, and this is just my input.

 

[MC3OZ]

With all this happening do we really think Ukraine support continuing as long as it takes is in any way assured? Even in the EU, leadership is firm. Can we say all the members are so firm?

I think Ukraine is trying hard to become more self-sufficient, they are aware that the current levels of support might not be sustained forever.

Any reduction in support may see Ukraine shift to a more defensive posture, slowing down attempts to take ground, and having more cautious approach.

So far, Ukraine has shown more ability to adapt than Russia, in part because they have to..

 

[madodel]

Russia issues its annual threat to shoot down US satellites.

Russia Threatens To Shoot Down Western Satellites

 

[Buckminster]

Mike Johnson voted in as speaker. Has previously voted against Ukraine funding. Can Biden get around this?

 

[madodel]

Mike Johnson voted in as speaker. Has previously voted against Ukraine funding. Can Biden get around this?

Perhaps but it isn't easy. The Speaker controls what bills are brought to a vote. Usually the House drafts spending bills but because of the past 20 days of no action because there was no Speaker the Senate drafted a bill with funding for Ukraine, Israel and the US border. But that will only be voted on if the Speaker brings the bill to the floor for a vote. The only alternative is a discharge petition which requires a majority of signatures. There are a bunch of them sitting in a queue in the House already, but they need a majority of the Representatives to sign on to it to bring the bills out of committee where they are usually left to die.

 

[navguy12]

Mike Johnson voted in as speaker. Has previously voted against Ukraine funding. Can Biden get around this?

 

[Buckminster]

Paywall - maybe there is a free version?
The west appeased Putin once. They’ll do it again

There were previously much stronger periods of strength to attempt negotiations. Biden needs to wait for some positive news - gain some territory before starting negotiations. However, his hand could easily weaken further so maybe don't wait too long.

I have no idea what Putin will believe his hand is. He has not lost land but maybe all his hardware and personnel loss will be sufficient to offer significant % of the land back. I am confident that if he handed 50% back he would still remain strong in his home country and spin it as a win of sorts against the entire Nato force... He would no doubt want assurances of limited military bases on the 50%.

And then of course, would Zelensky even agree to Biden's recommendations?

 

[Tiger]

View attachment 985299

On a side note, this guy looks like a double of Edward Snowden

 

[wdolson]

Paywall - maybe there is a free version?
The west appeased Putin once. They’ll do it again

There were previously much stronger periods of strength to attempt negotiations. Biden needs to wait for some positive news - gain some territory before starting negotiations. However, his hand could easily weaken further so maybe don't wait too long.

I have no idea what Putin will believe his hand is. He has not lost land but maybe all his hardware and personnel loss will be sufficient to offer significant % of the land back. I am confident that if he handed 50% back he would still remain strong in his home country and spin it as a win of sorts against the entire Nato force... He would no doubt want assurances of limited military bases on the 50%.

And then of course, would Zelensky even agree to Biden's recommendations?

Biden and the west should not be negotiating on Ukraine's behalf. It's up to Ukraine to decide when to start negotiating.

To negotiate for Ukraine falls into the trap that Putin has set. Putin claims that Ukraine is not a country. It doesn't have it's own agency. Having another country go to the negotiation table for Ukraine enforces that fallacious argument.

And leaving any part of pre-2014 Ukraine in Russian hands is dooming Ukrainians to torture and probably death. The Russians are currently and will continue to take out their embarrassment about their poor performance in this war on any Ukrainians they can find.

For Ukraine's future security Crimea also needs to be in Ukrainian hands. Whoever controls Crimea controls the Black Sea and Russia has made it clear they are not willing to play well with others and they will use any advantage they can get to hurt Ukraine. Russia as it stands now with Putin in charge will not stand by any agreement. They may negotiate in bad faith to get some years of peace so they can rebuild, but they won't give on on trying to conquer Ukraine until they are unable to try ever again.

Peace at any cost can have a very steep price when dealing with a double dealer like Putin. Putin will only accept an agreement as long as it's convenient to Russia. As soon as Russia thinks it has an opening again, they will break the agreement and attack again.

 

[Buckminster]

Biden and the west should not be negotiating on Ukraine's behalf. It's up to Ukraine to decide when to start negotiating.

To negotiate for Ukraine falls into the trap that Putin has set. Putin claims that Ukraine is not a country. It doesn't have it's own agency. Having another country go to the negotiation table for Ukraine enforces that fallacious argument.

And leaving any part of pre-2014 Ukraine in Russian hands is dooming Ukrainians to torture and probably death. The Russians are currently and will continue to take out their embarrassment about their poor performance in this war on any Ukrainians they can find.

For Ukraine's future security Crimea also needs to be in Ukrainian hands. Whoever controls Crimea controls the Black Sea and Russia has made it clear they are not willing to play well with others and they will use any advantage they can get to hurt Ukraine. Russia as it stands now with Putin in charge will not stand by any agreement. They may negotiate in bad faith to get some years of peace so they can rebuild, but they won't give on on trying to conquer Ukraine until they are unable to try ever again.

Peace at any cost can have a very steep price when dealing with a double dealer like Putin. Putin will only accept an agreement as long as it's convenient to Russia. As soon as Russia thinks it has an opening again, they will break the agreement and attack again.

You are consistent I will give you that.

I’ll come back later to see where we land. Pun not intended.

 

[madodel]

You are consistent I will give you that.

I’ll come back later to see where we land. Pun not intended.

What you mean is he doesn't agree with you. Hopefully you aren't correct or we will have yet another hot world war. Appeasement of fascist dictators didn't work for Arthur Neville Chamberlain, and it won't work now. Putler needs to fall out a window and Ukraine killing large numbers of Russian conscripts is, sadly for the those future dead Russians, the way that will happen.

 

[MC3OZ]

Paywall - maybe there is a free version?
The west appeased Putin once. They’ll do it again

There were previously much stronger periods of strength to attempt negotiations. Biden needs to wait for some positive news - gain some territory before starting negotiations. However, his hand could easily weaken further so maybe don't wait too long.

I have no idea what Putin will believe his hand is. He has not lost land but maybe all his hardware and personnel loss will be sufficient to offer significant % of the land back. I am confident that if he handed 50% back he would still remain strong in his home country and spin it as a win of sorts against the entire Nato force... He would no doubt want assurances of limited military bases on the 50%.

And then of course, would Zelensky even agree to Biden's recommendations?

For now neither side can afford to give up Crimea...

If Ukraine is successful in taking Crimea then Russia might be prepared to give up other territories.

Putin might die, then his successor might strike a deal.

Putin might be overthrown as unlikely as it seems now.

Putin might be able to outlast Ukraine and the west forcing Ukraine to take a bad deal.

None of these outcomes seem likely in the next 6-12 months... the longer the war drags on the more likely it ends with the death or overthrow of Putin, especially if the Russian economy starts to fall apart,

Tougher sanctions are the fastest most effective way for the west to steer the conflict towards a positive outcome, and getting the Saudis to turn on the oil tap would be a big help;

The other consideration is China has recently mended relations with Australia and is making overtures to improve relations with the US. The Chinese economy is facing some headwinds, exports are important and this war isn't helping. So this is a time when China is less inclined to help Russia. An improvement in US/Chinese relations would be a good thing,

 

[navguy12]

One observation (from a routine daily war update from the Guardian) makes me pause:

• The wives and family of enlisted Ukrainian soldiers have gathered at Independence Square in Kyiv to call for the right to voluntarily demobilise after 18 months. “Our servicemen are strong, but they are not robots,” protesters shouted during the rally. In the first weeks after the invasion, hundreds of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians volunteered to serve at the front, the Guardian has reported. But many of those initial recruits are now dead, wounded or simply exhausted, and the army needs new recruits to fill the ranks. However, most of those who want to fight have already signed up, leaving the military to recruit among a much more reluctant pool of men.

Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 611

White House says Russia is executing soldiers who fail to follow orders; Moscow criticises Ukraine-backed peace talks in Malta

www.theguardian.com

 

[Tiger]

One observation (from a routine daily war update from the Guardian) makes me pause:

The wives and family of enlisted Ukrainian soldiers have gathered at Independence Square in Kyiv to call for the right to voluntarily demobilise after 18 months. “Our servicemen are strong, but they are not robots,” protesters shouted during the rally. I

Probably (protest) bought and paid for by Russia. Ukraine should fund the same in Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634893841114202112

 

[iPlug]

Russia's central bank raises its key interest rate yet again. Now 13%->15% in just a few weeks (4th time in recent months). It’s not just Russia fighting to keep their Ruble under 100 to the US dollar. Inflation is really becoming a problem for Putin.

This is largely being driven by increased Russian spending on its war machine. Some economists also argue a significant contribution is from sanctions.

Russia hikes interest rates to 15% as inflation soars

 

[EatsShoots]

Russia's central bank raises its key interest rate yet again. Now 13%->15% in just a few weeks (4th time in recent months). It’s not just Russia fighting to keep their Ruble under 100 to the US dollar. Inflation is really becoming a problem for Putin.

This is largely being driven by increased Russian spending on its war machine. Some economists also argue a significant contribution is from sanctions.

Russia hikes interest rates to 15% as inflation soars

We gotta pump those number up. Those are rookie numbers!

 

[wdolson]

Probably (protest) bought and paid for by Russia. Ukraine should fund the same in Russia.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1634893841114202112

In Ukraine people can protest without fear of retribution, but protesting in Russia gets you sent to a penal colony in Siberia for 15 years. Sabotage and other covert means or protesting are happening in Russia because of this.

 

[madodel]

Ruzzia continues to drain its prison population for the meat-grinder.
Ukraine war: Russia goes back to prisons to feed its war machine