Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SwedishAdvocate]

Could always be Putin himself.
Perhaps Dugin got too much of a handicap to Putin, forcing a war that Russia is losing, a war that is a big threat to Putin.
And if in the process of killing Dugin Russia can put the blame on Ukraine, so much the better for Putin.

A Twitter-thread about this that seems interesting...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1561318530284490752

And as so many times before – credit goes to (in Swedish):

Ryska sabotörer gripna på vapenfabrik i Natolandet Albanien, två soldater till sjukhus - ryske fascistledaren Dugin undkom attentat, sanktionerad propagandist dödad - fortsatta explosioner på Krym

Tre ryska sabotörer greps på en vapenfabrik i Natolandet Albanien, men en sabotör undkom och två albanska soldater fördes till sjukhus svårt skadade av någon form av gift. Kriget nådde Moskva när den ryske fascistledaren Alexander Dugin undkom ett attentat igår kväll på väg hem från en fascistisk ko

cornucopia.se

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Going to be typing slow for a while. I fell off a ladder and broke my wrist bad enough to need surgery. Just got back from the ER. We were there about 7 hours.

There was no reaction suitable for both the surprise, and "I'll probably do that one day" response to it.

That being said the speech to text is supposedly a lot better these days.

 

[iPlug]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1561445936915951616

 

[wdolson]

There's no "care" emoji, so get better ASAP.

Thanks. I have a genetic anomaly that I don't feel chronic pain. My father had it and my sister does too. That's the upside, the downside is that every day things are difficult and there is acute pain when I move anything.

It was annoying being stuck in the ER for 7 hrs. They had me in a hallway too. I was annoyed at the time it took especially since I was starving too. But there were people a lot worse off than I was.

Will be interesting to see how Putin/Russia reacts to this.

Ukraine will continue to deny involvement which is their correct play regardless of any involvement. On the plus side for Ukraine, such attacks show they can strike at the heart of the beast, even if said person was not the precise target.

But if the Russian population is generally sympathetic to Putin's kleptocracy circle, this will build further support for their war against Ukraine. Also, Putin may now expand from indiscriminate killing of Ukrainian civilians to include more targeted now. Hard to know, he may have already been unsuccessfully trying.

Also hard to be 100% convinced the Ukrainians did it. Could be other agitators that would be interested, such as Chechens.

I guess some Russians have claimed responsibility. I thought it was Russians from the start though I thought it might be the Kremlin. Early in the war there was an article on the two people Putin talked to during lockdown and Dugin was one of them. Both were nuts even by Russian standards.

There was no reaction suitable for both the surprise, and "I'll probably do that one day" response to it.

That being said the speech to text is supposedly a lot better these days.

I post from Windows. I'll look for options, but I find I can get my thoughts out better writing than speaking. one handed is about 1/4 speed, but I get there in the end.

 

[JRP3]

This headline is amusing, as if Russia hasn't already struck Ukraine many times.

Russians vow to strike Ukraine after daughter of Vladimir Putin's ally dies in car bomb

Russians vow to strike Ukraine after daughter of Vladimir Putin's ally dies in car bomb

Officials in Kyiv deny any links to the murder of Darya Durgina, but have warned of increased Russian attacks in the days ahead

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[iPlug]

IMO, one of the big long term wild cards is how long Putin wants to drag this thing on. Things have not gone as hoped for him, but typically folks will try to double down in such cases.

Even with the escalating skill of Ukraine and their increasing supply and use of more sophisticated weapons, if Putin wants to carry on long enough he will likely find a way to replenish enough cannon fodder bodies to continue to hold most of his defense and perhaps make some more tiny gains here and there.

Putin's ammunition and advanced weapon supplies appear to have been markedly depleted, but he has lots of cash and absolute power and can increase ammo and crude weapon production rates long term. Certainly with sanctions on chips and such, it will be difficult for him to make high numbers of advanced weapons. Still he has the advantage of dictatorship to grind on for a long time.

Plus side for Ukraine, the West is training their soldiers, so they will hopefully become a more professional force than they are now in a few months.

 

[wdolson]

IMO, one of the big long term wild cards is how long Putin wants to drag this thing on. Things have not gone as hoped for him, but typically folks will try to double down in such cases.

Even with the escalating skill of Ukraine and their increasing supply and use of more sophisticated weapons, if Putin wants to carry on long enough he will likely find a way to replenish enough cannon fodder bodies to continue to hold most of his defense and perhaps make some more tiny gains here and there.

Putin's ammunition and advanced weapon supplies appear to have been markedly depleted, but he has lots of cash and absolute power and can increase ammo and crude weapon production rates long term. Certainly with sanctions on chips and such, it will be difficult for him to make high numbers of advanced weapons. Still he has the advantage of dictatorship to grind on for a long time.

Plus side for Ukraine, the West is training their soldiers, so they will hopefully become a more professional force than they are now in a few months.

The Russians have an uphill battle to expand ammunition production. Ammunition production is very dependent on a country's chemical industry. The USSR had a strong chemical industry, but most of it was in Ukraine. Chemical production is not easy to expand quickly.

Putin has handcuffed his fate to this war. He can't quit or the knives come out for him. He's not an absolute dictator. He has a lot of power, but there are those who will try to oust him if he appears weak.

 

[iPlug]

The Russians have an uphill battle to expand ammunition production. Ammunition production is very dependent on a country's chemical industry. The USSR had a strong chemical industry, but most of it was in Ukraine. Chemical production is not easy to expand quickly.

Putin has handcuffed his fate to this war. He can't quit or the knives come out for him. He's not an absolute dictator. He has a lot of power, but there are those who will try to oust him if he appears weak.

Hope you are right.

 

[JRP3]

I'm seeing more reports of Putin health problems but not from major sources so I'm not sure it's credible.

 

[wdolson]

I'm seeing more reports of Putin health problems but not from major sources so I'm not sure it's credible.

I saw a clip from when he was in Iran. A fly or something was buzzing around the right side of his face and he swatted at it with his left hand. His right arm just hung limp at his side. I thought that was odd.

Hope you are right.

They have been putting all their chemical industry into fertilizer. They have probably switched that over to munitions, but their capacity to make ammunition is a tiny fraction of usage.

An analysis
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

 

[JRP3]

His right arm just hung limp at his side. I thought that was odd.

That's been covered though, he's always kept his right arm by his side like that.

 

[wdolson]

That's been covered though, he's always kept his right arm by his side like that.

Yes, though it's rather odd he won't shoo away a fly with that hand.

 

[bobby g]

There was no reaction suitable for both the surprise, and "I'll probably do that one day" response to it.

That being said the speech to text is supposedly a lot better these days.

Being careful doesn't really help when the ladder demons are astir - they scare the hell out of me (just changed out 5 light fixtures yesterday). Hoping full recovery for you.

 

[JRP3]

Germany changing it's mind about keeping the nuclear plants running:

German economy minister rules out keeping nuclear plants running to save gas

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck ruled out on Sunday extending the lifespan of the country's three remaining nuclear power plants in order to save gas, saying it would save at most 2 percent of gas use.

www.reuters.com

 

[bkp_duke]

Germany changing it's mind about keeping the nuclear plants running:

German economy minister rules out keeping nuclear plants running to save gas

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck ruled out on Sunday extending the lifespan of the country's three remaining nuclear power plants in order to save gas, saying it would save at most 2 percent of gas use.

www.reuters.com

F-ing moron.

 

[UncaNed]

I can't help but think of all the idiots who resisted land-based wind farms in Germany based on aesthetics who will be freezing in their homes this winter. Same for NIMBY solar farms, (my personal pet peeve. The NIMBYS, not the farms, I mean).

 

[wdolson]

Being careful doesn't really help when the ladder demons are astir - they scare the hell out of me (just changed out 5 light fixtures yesterday). Hoping full recovery for you.

See the surgeon today. Talked to my sister yesterday she has the same sort of problems with anesthetics I do. In some ways she's worse local anesthetics trigger deep depression (she is otherwise not prone to depression). She had a hip replaced a year ago and relayed what worked for her. I've never had opiods but I had a feeling I wouldn't do well. She gets violently ill on them.

She put me onto Aleve which has done great for me.

On the war. Read this and it is curious the Russians aren't using trailers
Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

 

[iPlug]

Germany changing it's mind about keeping the nuclear plants running:

German economy minister rules out keeping nuclear plants running to save gas

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck ruled out on Sunday extending the lifespan of the country's three remaining nuclear power plants in order to save gas, saying it would save at most 2 percent of gas use.

www.reuters.com

I can't help but think of all the idiots who resisted land-based wind farms in Germany based on aesthetics who will be freezing in their homes this winter. Same for NIMBY solar farms, (my personal pet peeve. The NIMBYS, not the farms, I mean).

The Greens (Energy Minister Habeck is one) - part of the coalition that governs Germany - have come a long way in the last 10+ years from their deep tree hugging roots. They have become more comfortable working with the market economy/corporations, trying to encourage renewable deployment but being less purely obstructionist.

Habeck is probably personally fine with keeping these nuclear plants going another year or so, but he is also vulnerable to the laws of political gravity within his own party. Not exactly a schadenfreude play, but his party feels places like Bavaria have unreasonably resisted renewable deployment over the years and should have and still should develop wind/renewable power production more aggressively. Yes, NIMBY issues among things.

Really the problem here is that most Germans, like Americans, heat their homes and businesses with fossils fuels a la natural gas (NG). So the idea was that in all these months leading up to winter to burn less NG for electricity so that there would be more NG in storage to use in winter for heating. Although solar PV and wind would not heat buildings until heat pumps are deployed in significant numbers, they do reduce NG used for electricity production.

 

[RobStark]

Return of Crimea to Ukraine a requirement of international law: Turkish president

Ensuring safety, well-being of Crimean Tatars among Türkiye's priorities, Recep Tayyip Erdogan says - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

 

[RobStark]

Russia ammunition stored near border catches fire, official blames heat

Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Belgorod region, said people near the village of Timonovo were evacuated after the ammunition started to spontaneously combust. Last week inhabitants of Timonovo and Soloti, 15 km (9 miles) from Ukraine, were evacuated after a nearby ammunition storage depot...

www.yahoo.com

"In a few months we will find out whether Russian ammunition can explode because of the cold," Ukraine's defense ministry said in a tweet on Tuesday.

"The five main causes of sudden explosions in Russia are: winter, spring, summer, autumn and smoking."