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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Yeah, I've found a number of conflicting reports. It does seem probable that the crash was from earlier this summer. I'm open to the possibility that the topography could be hiding a transmission line. Pilot does seem more cool headed than you'd expect from someone just shot down.
Either way one less plane Putin can use to murder civilians.
 
id be interested in hearing expert opinions on our cyber capabilities
- if there are ways to reduce or negate russias nuclear threat
- etc etc

we often talk about what happened in past, or what’s other available stuff on the web (i’ve looked at the history of nuclear tests and historical lists of nukes in production as well lodger)

but i haven’t really found much on cyber capabilities…or stuff from a clandestine angle

anyone? or have i just watched too many movies 😕
 
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id be interested in hearing expert opinions on our cyber capabilities
- if there are ways to reduce or negate russias nuclear threat
- etc etc

we often talk about what happened in past, or what’s other available stuff on the web (i’ve looked at the history of nuclear tests and historical lists of nukes in production as well lodger)

but i haven’t really found much on cyber capabilities…or stuff from a clandestine angle

anyone? or have i just watched too many movies 😕
My non expert suspicion is nuclear capabilities are not connected to the internet, because that seems insane.
 
My non expert suspicion is nuclear capabilities are not connected to the internet, because that seems insane.
well thanks i guess. but not really what i was getting at.
something more like olympic games out of nsa combined with various ground assets - but obv on a much grander scale. maybe just too many targets to be effective. but with the way that spread, i hoped some outside chance we get a way into the industrial controls
but i figure worth at least seeing what people had to say, i guess i’ll go back to watching bugs bunny cartoons.
 
Good article on the state of the Russian army at the frontlines:
Really should be read by all. It is actually a good read. I'd heard about it but had not read it myself so thanks for posting.
 
Again, you seem touchingly naive. You LIVE on an irradiated planet right now. Were you born before Castle Bravo, or after? How about Chernobyl? Here's the list of what we're already living with:


One way old wines are tested for authenticity is to test for radioactive particles in the wine. If the wine is supposed to be from before 1945 and has radioactive particles, it's fake.

Steel made before the end of WW II is highly valuable for some scientific purposes because it's radiation free.

We are mildly irradiated now but a nuclear war would make it orders of magnitude worse/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests
If you're not in the exclusion zone, life afterward goes on. Look at Fuku. Ironically, Japan has now been nuked 3 times. But Japan is still Japan, they even launched a rocket last week.

Denial of LEO access restricts humanity to Earth for a century or longer: No going back to the Moon, No 1st Manned Mars Mission, No Asteroid Mining. This is IF we can remember how to get back to orbit after 100 years without doing so.

Maybe study what you're talking about? This is a big F.N. deal. Russians are playing a dangerous game of brinksmanship. I'd be willing to trade Moscow for a resolution.

If I was King, I'd have every SAT-INT resource scrutinizing Russia's every move 24/7 right now. And if they even twitched at fueling up a rocket with ASAT capability, I'd take them out with 3 wings of B2 Spirits using FAE's. No more lunches, Vlad. Some people only understand a kick in the teeth. Word.

But I also doubt the West has this kind of resolve. Which is exactly what emboldens despots like Putin, and why he still thinks he has a chance in hell. I'd just give him an early access pass for the trip.

Both nuclear war and loss of LEO would be severe disasters, but I think nuclear war would be worse. The loss of LEO would be very bad though. It would be the worst technology failure in history.

We are in 100% agreement that Putin needs to go. I'm not sure in what scenario you envision a nuclear exchange only destroying a few cities though. I foresee a nuclear exchange likely leading to WW3 and the destruction of the human race. Imo, that would be a bigger problem than a realization of the Kessler Syndrome.

Btw,I was responding to Wdolson's speculation that astronauts might be permanently stranded at the ISS in such an event. I find that quite unlikely.

If the crew didn't get out before the debris spread evacuating in the escape module would be very risky. The capsule could be holed before they get back to Earth. If they evacuated shortly after a big ASAT attack, they could probably time it to get around the spreading debris field.

But does warheads that powerful still exist? Haven't they all been down-sized so that the soot and smoke no longer can reach the stratosphere?... As I understand it the soot won't reach that high. Instead it will rain back down with the next rainfall...

But I'm just a layman on this – I could of course be wrong...

The biggest US weapon still in service is the B83 with a yield of 1.2 MT. The US made 650 of them.
B83 nuclear bomb - Wikipedia

Russia is tight lipped about what it has, but they probably have warheads in that range. 1.2 MT is definitely enough to inject into the stratosphere.

Both sides have fewer warheads than 1990, but there is still enough to kill all life on Earth.

But do warheads as big as Castle Bravo and Tsar Bomba still exist? As I understand it they do not. So seems to me that there wouldn't be that much soot and smoke in the stratosphere...

A nuclear attack would of course be 'bad'. But it hasn't happened this far, nor has the Dictator blown up that dam upstream from Kherson, so whomever is in charge in Russia seem to have some consequences to consider...

Whether or not Russia uses nukes is still up in the air. The fact that they have been threatening is chilling enough.

I think what's deterring Russia is that many other nuclear powers have told Russia they have a zero tolerance for nukes.

id be interested in hearing expert opinions on our cyber capabilities
- if there are ways to reduce or negate russias nuclear threat
- etc etc

we often talk about what happened in past, or what’s other available stuff on the web (i’ve looked at the history of nuclear tests and historical lists of nukes in production as well lodger)

but i haven’t really found much on cyber capabilities…or stuff from a clandestine angle

anyone? or have i just watched too many movies 😕

The US is purported to have the most potent cyber offensive capability in the world. But it's actual capabilities are unknown. It's rumored that the US has sleeper code in many Russian systems can can decapitate the Russian economy. It's almost certain the US has no cyber attack capability on Russia's nuclear arsenal. Those systems are not connected to the outside world.

Good article on the state of the Russian army at the frontlines:

I saw that the other day and was going to post here, but forgot. Very interesting article. I'm sure the Ukrainians have already harvested a ton of valuable intelligence from that haul.
 
One way old wines are tested for authenticity is to test for radioactive particles in the wine. If the wine is supposed to be from before 1945 and has radioactive particles, it's fake.

Steel made before the end of WW II is highly valuable for some scientific purposes because it's radiation free.
.

Interesting tidbit about the wine testing. Makes sense. They're probably looking for a specific isotope of Cesium. There are many other natural sources of radiation that would be in older wines too. The ash in my woodstove, for instance, would make a Geiger counter sing just a little. Radon is another natural source of radiation that is problematic in many homes in my area of New England.

A lot of steel and iron from Chernobyl got recycled that shouldn't have been(or at least not without proper decontamination procedures). That introduced a fair bit of contamination into the steel supply in that neck of the woods.
 
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But does warheads that powerful still exist? Haven't they all been down-sized so that the soot and smoke no longer can reach the stratosphere?... As I understand it the soot won't reach that high. Instead it will rain back down with the next rainfall...

But I'm just a layman on this – I could of course be wrong...

It's called "dial-a-yield", and U.S. weapons have had this capability on MIRVs since the '80s. The bigger advancement today is our precision strike capability. Old Soviet warheads had to be massive because the delivery vehicle could be expected to miss its target, on average, by more than a mile (called CEP, or circular-error-probable).

Modern U.S. weapons don't miss their targets (to within a few meters, or less on average). Now, a conventional warhead delivered to the right time and place does the job MORE effectively than any crude sledgehammer ever could. It's a new era, while the Russians never left the old one.

Now that era is coming to an end. Not surprising to see their death throes. Courage.