Russia/Ukraine conflict

[JRP3]

It doesn't sound good for humanity.

In all of the researchers' simulated scenarios, nuclear firestorms would release soot and smoke into the upper atmosphere that would block out the Sun resulting in crop failure around the world. In the first month following nuclear war, average global temperatures would plunge by about 13 degrees, a larger temperature change than in the last Ice Age.

How Nuclear War Would Affect Earth

A new study shows how a nuclear war would cool Earth and disrupt the planet's oceans, with dire consequences for humanity.

www.forbes.com

 

[nativewolf]

Again, you seem touchingly naive. You LIVE on an irradiated planet right now. Were you born before Castle Bravo, or after? How about Chernobyl? Here's the list of what we're already living with:

List of nuclear weapons tests - Wikipedia​

If you're not in the exclusion zone, life afterward goes on. Look at Fuku. Ironically, Japan has now been nuked 3 times. But Japan is still Japan, they even launched a rocket last week.

Denial of LEO access restricts humanity to Earth for a century or longer: No going back to the Moon, No 1st Manned Mars Mission, No Asteroid Mining. This is IF we can remember how to get back to orbit after 100 years without doing so.

Maybe study what you're talking about? This is a big F.N. deal. Russians are playing a dangerous game of brinksmanship. I'd be willing to trade Moscow for a resolution.

If I was King, I'd have every SAT-INT resource scrutinizing Russia's every move 24/7 right now. And if they even twitched at fueling up a rocket with ASAT capability, I'd take them out with 3 wings of B2 Spirits using FAE's. No more lunches, Vlad. Some people only understand a kick in the teeth. Word.

But I also doubt the West has this kind of resolve. Which is exactly what emboldens despots like Putin, and why he still thinks he has a chance in hell. I'd just give him an early access pass for the trip.

Post of the day

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

It doesn't sound good for humanity.

How Nuclear War Would Affect Earth

A new study shows how a nuclear war would cool Earth and disrupt the planet's oceans, with dire consequences for humanity.

www.forbes.com

But does warheads that powerful still exist? Haven't they all been down-sized so that the soot and smoke no longer can reach the stratosphere?... As I understand it the soot won't reach that high. Instead it will rain back down with the next rainfall...

But I'm just a layman on this – I could of course be wrong...

 

[Dangerous Fish]

But does warheads that powerful still exist? Haven't they all been down-sized so that the soot and smoke no longer can reach the stratosphere?... As I understand it the soot won't reach that high. Instead it will rain back down with the next rainfall...

But I'm just a layman on this – I could of course be wrong...

 

[SmokyPeat]

But does warheads that powerful still exist? Haven't they all been down-sized so that the soot and smoke no longer can reach the stratosphere?... As I understand it the soot won't reach that high. Instead it will rain back down with the next rainfall...

But I'm just a layman on this – I could of course be wrong...

The 100 kiloton warheads referenced in that Forbes article are on the small side of what are in the American and Russian nuclear arsenals. The US W88 warhead on Trident 2 sub launched missiles are 450 kt. Our B83 aircraft warhead is 1200 kt. Russian ICBM warheads are mostly around 800 kt. For reference, Little Boy dropped on Hiroshima was about 13 kt, and Fat Man about 20 kt. The Castle Bravo and Tsar Bomba detonations were the most massive at 15,000 kt and 50,000 kt, respectively. They were both detonated as far from population centers as possible, yet still inflicted a good deal of radiation poisoning.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

The 100 kiloton warheads referenced in that Forbes article are on the small side of what are in the American and Russian nuclear arsenals. The US W88 warhead on Trident 2 sub launched missiles are 450 kt. Our B83 aircraft warhead is 1200 kt. Russian ICBM warheads are mostly around 800 kt. For reference, Little Boy dropped on Hiroshima was about 13 kt, and Fat Man about 20 kt. The Castle Bravo and Tsar Bomba detonations we're the most massive at 15,000 kt and 50,000 kt, respectively. They were both detonated as far from population centers as possible, yet still inflicted a good deal of radiation poisoning.

But do warheads as big as Castle Bravo and Tsar Bomba still exist? As I understand it they do not. So seems to me that there wouldn't be that much soot and smoke in the stratosphere...

A nuclear attack would of course be 'bad'. But it hasn't happened this far, nor has the Dictator blown up that dam upstream from Kherson, so whomever is in charge in Russia seem to have some consequences to consider...

 

[SmokyPeat]

But do warheads as big as Castle Bravo and Tsar Bomba still exist? As I understand it they do not. So seems to me that there wouldn't be that much soot and smoke in the stratosphere...

A nuclear attack would of course be 'bad'. But it hasn't happened this far, nor has the Dictator blown up that dam upstream from Kherson, so whomever is in charge in Russia seem to have some consequences to consider...

Castle Bravo and Tsar Bomba were test articles, not really warheads. The radioactive fallout from Castle Bravo, detonated at ground level, was severe. Bikini atoll was never the same. It wasn't supposed to yield nearly what it did. Tsar Bomba was detonated quite high in the atmosphere, so the fallout was less despite it's gargantuan size. It would be foolish to underestimate the killing power of the US and Russian nuclear arsenals.

 

[lolachampcar]

I don't think so. The pilot gives a 360° panoramic view after the crash and I can't see any power lines or utility poles. Though I don't see any MANPAD contrails either. Anyone know what he said in Russian?

Note the vertical is sliced off which is exactly what happens low level hitting power lines.....

 

[SmokyPeat]

View attachment 868157

Note the vertical is sliced off which is exactly what happens low level hitting power lines.....

Look at the tree level beneath him. I'd say he was flying at least at 700 ft elevation. What power lines are that high off of the ground? And why is there no evidence of a transmission line when he pans around after the crash? The MANPAD version of events seems more plausible to me.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Castle Bravo and Tsar Bomba were test articles, not really warheads. The radioactive fallout from Castle Bravo, detonated at ground level, was severe. Bikini atoll was never the same. It wasn't supposed to yield nearly what it did. Tsar Bomba was detonated quite high in the atmosphere, so the fallout was less despite it's gargantuan size. It would be foolish to underestimate the killing power of the US and Russian nuclear arsenals.

I of course agree that it would be very foolish to underestimate the killing power of those two combined nuclear arsenals.

But. It still seems to me that this nuclear winter 'doomsday' scenario isn't really there anymore. And it also seems that no-one has really countered this so far in this thread...

 

[SPadival]

At what point would you have to bring back recon aircraft like SR71?

Hey! Why not! US was using B-1B bombers as replacement for A10 Warthogs for close air support in Afghanistan (with disastrous consequences for the US troops on the ground )

Source: “The Spoils of War” by Andrew Cockburn

This book was on my Audible list in 2021 along with “War with Russia?” by the Late Great Prof. Stephen F. Cohen.

 

[JRP3]

But. It still seems to me that this nuclear winter 'doomsday' scenario isn't really there anymore. And it also seems that no-one has really countered this so far in this thread...

Did you not read the recent article I linked referring to a recent study on that very subject?

 

[lolachampcar]

Look at the tree level beneath him. I'd say he was flying at least at 700 ft elevation. What power lines are that high off of the ground? And why is there no evidence of a transmission line when he pans around after the crash? The MANPAD version of events seems more plausible to me.

Uncommanded pitch up...........

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Did you not read the recent article I linked referring to a recent study on that very subject?

No. But I have now.

I could of course be wrong. I fully admit that. But having said that, the article talks about "Hiroshima-sized 100-kiloton nuclear weapons".

This dude:

Lars Wilderäng – Wikipedia

sv.wikipedia.org

...has been blogging daily about this war since the morning it started. I've linked to many of his posts in this thread. He claims that todays nuclear warheads won't 'drag' soot and smoke up into the stratosphere. But sure – he could of course be wrong. I do realize that...

That Forbes article also talks about "nuclear firestorms". Ok... But cities doesn't look like WWII Hiroshima and Nagasaki anymore. Since 1945 the world has globally implemented building codes and fire codes. So how will these "nuclear firestorms" form? And how will they get soot and smoke into the stratosphere?

Again: I'm a layman. And that is a kind of short and not very in-depth article. I still haven't understood how todays nuclear warhead will cause this nuclear winter these scientists claim...

(And the accompanying scenario in the Youtube-video seems to suggest that the entire Russian governing elite is ready and willing to commit collective suicide, which also seems kind of unlikely...)

The blog mentioned above:

Cornucopia?

Evig tillväxt i en ändlig värld?

cornucopia.se

 

[JRP3]

Look at the tree level beneath him. I'd say he was flying at least at 700 ft elevation. What power lines are that high off of the ground? And why is there no evidence of a transmission line when he pans around after the crash? The MANPAD version of events seems more plausible to me.

Snopes has links claiming the crash was an already reported June training crash

Helmet Camera Footage Reportedly Shows Russian Pilot Ejecting from Downed Fighter Jet

Russian government sources report that the incident occurred in June 2022, and that the pilot was unharmed.

www.snopes.com

 

[JRP3]

Since 1945 the world has globally implemented building codes and fire codes. So how will these "nuclear firestorms" form? And how will they get soot and smoke into the stratosphere?

Fire codes don't mean fireproof, especially from a nuclear attack. Remember 9/11 when 2 planes set 2 skyscrapers on fire?

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Fire codes don't mean fireproof, especially from a nuclear attack. Remember 9/11 when 2 planes set 2 skyscrapers on fire?

Sure. If something like total nuclear war does indeed happen the devastation would of course be 'difficult' to describe with words. But as I understand it, the smoke from 9/11 didn't end up in the stratosphere...

 

[SmokyPeat]

No. But I have now.

I could of course be wrong. I fully admit that. But having said that, the article talks about "Hiroshima-sized 100-kiloton nuclear weapons".

This dude:

Lars Wilderäng – Wikipedia

sv.wikipedia.org

...has been blogging daily about this war since the morning it started. I've linked to many of his posts in this thread. He claims that todays nuclear warheads won't 'drag' soot and smoke up into the stratosphere. But sure – he could of course be wrong. I do realize that...

That Forbes article also talks about "nuclear firestorms". Ok... But cities doesn't look like WWII Hiroshima and Nagasaki anymore. Since 1945 the world has globally implemented building codes and fire codes. So how will these "nuclear firestorms" form? And how will they get soot and smoke into the stratosphere?

Again: I'm a layman. And that is a kind of short and not very in-depth article. I still haven't understood how todays nuclear warhead will cause this nuclear winter these scientists claim...

(And the accompanying scenario in the Youtube-video seems to suggest that the entire Russian governing elite is ready and willing to commit collective suicide, which also seems kind of unlikely...)

The blog mentioned above:

Cornucopia?

Evig tillväxt i en ändlig värld?

cornucopia.se

These guys from MIT give a good rundown of the effects from modern thermonuclear weapons. They also describe some scenarios pertinent to Ukraine that fall short of a full blown nuclear holocaust, though they find them unlikely.

The Devastating Effects of Nuclear Weapons

Richard Wolfson and Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress reveal the most horrifying realities of nuclear war.

thereader.mitpress.mit.edu

 

[JRP3]

Sure. If something like total nuclear war does indeed happen the devastation would of course be 'difficult' to describe with worlds. But as I understand it, the smoke from 9/11 didn't end up in the stratosphere...

I like your version better but I'm still leaning towards the opinion of people who studied it and put out a peer reviewed article on the topic. A quick Google provides this:

The altitude reached by the cloud depends on the force of the explosion. When yields are in the low-kiloton range, the cloud will remain in the lower atmosphere and its effects will be entirely local. But as yields exceed 30 kilotons, part of the cloud will punch into the stratosphere, which begins about 7 miles up. With yields of 2-5 megatons or more, virtually all of the cloud of radioactive debris and fine dust will climb into the stratosphere. The heavier materials reaching the lower edge of the stratosphere will soon settle out, as did the Castle/Bravo fallout at Rongelap. But the lighter particles will penetrate high into the stratosphere, to altitudes of 12 miles and more, and remain there for months and even years. Stratospheric circulation and diffusion will spread this material around the world.

The Mechanics of Nuclear Explosions | Worldwide Effects of Nuclear War | Historical Documents | atomciarchive.com

Worldwide Effects of Nuclear War by U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency.

www.atomicarchive.com

 

[SmokyPeat]

Snopes has links claiming the crash was an already reported June training crash

Helmet Camera Footage Reportedly Shows Russian Pilot Ejecting from Downed Fighter Jet

Russian government sources report that the incident occurred in June 2022, and that the pilot was unharmed.

www.snopes.com

Yeah, I've found a number of conflicting reports. It does seem probable that the crash was from earlier this summer. I'm open to the possibility that the topography could be hiding a transmission line. Pilot does seem more cool headed than you'd expect from someone just shot down.