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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
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ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
BitJam
Active Member
The NYT article seems reasonable. Perhaps the person who tweeted didn't bother to read past the first paragraph. The point of the article is not that Sobchak is anti-Putin or a savior. Quite the opposite. They said she was a mild contrarian voice. The point is that even someone as well connected to the Kremlin as she is and who has avoided taking a strong stance on Ukraine felt forced to flee Russia. From the article:
Her departure appeared to indicate that even modestly contrarian voices connected to the government were no longer safe from persecution, a level of suppression last seen in Russia four decades ago.
[...] To many, including her detractors, her flight from Russia appeared to be a watershed in the country’s transformation since the start of the war in Ukraine.
If the implications in the tweet were at all accurate then the entire article would make no sense. I doubt the tweeter read the entire article. Baseless smears like this are wrong whether they are against Elon, Tesla, or the NYT.
Verdict:
NYT: Clueful!
Linked tweet: not so much
jabloomf1230
Minister of Silly Walks
Yep, but all that this exchange points out is that Twitter isn't a place where detail thrives. The original NYT tweet was just a summary of the full article, which made all the same points as Galeev did.
BitJam
Active Member
Good point! The NYT tweet is literally the first paragraph from the article.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
I don't think so. The NYT article does not make the critical point that she's just a Putin tool doing what Putin told her to do. Pure theater, not "fleeing" anything. Just another pawn that Putin is moving from one place to another. Of course Galeev could be mistaken, but I'm much more confident in his grasp of political history than the NYT.
BitJam
Active Member
I don' t understand. You seem to be saying her leaving Russia using an Israeli passport was a ploy designed by Putin. To do what? What does he gain from that? As reported by the NYT, her leaving makes it look like Russia is quickly going to Hell in a handbasket. The closer she is/was to Putin the worse it looks.
Also, I don't see why you trust Galeev on this when it appears they obviously didn't read (or didn't understand) the article. The closer she is/was to Putin, the more relevant and important the article is. It does not make sense for Galeev or for you to complain the NYT was not stressing enough how close she was.
Perhaps there is some deep subtlety or 4-d chess strategy I'm missing, but on the face of it, these complaints don't make any sense once you read past the first paragraph of the article.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
What I'm saying is that I trust Galeev way more than the NYT to tell me what's going on. I doubt the NYT reporter's competence and knowledge, and I doubt their desire to tell me what's going on. At best they are trying to frame the news in a way they think a westerner might understand: simplistic and with minimal context.
What good would it do the NYT to say "This is all Putin theater concocted for his domestic audience. We don't understand it and neither can you."? Galeev is happy to say these are the players, and this is their history, and there's no reason to take this at face value or believe anything they say. I think that's much more informative than what I get from the NYT.
When I'm done with Galeev I'm quite certain I don't know what's going on or why. When I'm done with the NYT I think I know something but I really don't.
It will be interesting to see what happens next. At it's very simplest, maybe Putin just wanted to get her safe out of the country, maybe to help quiet the opposition of others like her who will believe now that maybe they can get out if they need to. I don't know.
Kamil Galeev is a Russian born analyst working for the Wilson Center in Washington DC. He was offered a job in the FSB, but decided to leave the country instead. He got a degree in Economics from Peking university followed by a Masters in Literature in St Andrew in the UK. He understands Russian culture because he lived it through his early life, then had the perspective of experiencing 3 other cultures since then. He is very aware of the details about Russian culture that westerners miss because he has an understanding of western culture too.
Galeev is also part Tartar which is one of the ethnic minority groups in Russia, so he has paid attention to the plight of the minorities who get little say in how Russia is run.
A collection of his Twitter threads
Latest Twitter Threads by @kamilkazani on Thread Reader App
One thing he has talked about and I have read about elsewhere is Putin's form of democracy is to control the opposition as well as the primary political party. Anyone who wants to run for president needs Putin's permission to do so. To create the illusion of real elections he selects opposition figures who are shills who are running to lose.
If a real opponent surfaces like Alexi Navalny, Putin ensures he (or she) doesn't show up on the ballot.
I have found a lot of the things Galeev has said to be enlightening, but where he has written about things I have learned other places (including from some Russians I have known), what he says matches up pretty closely.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
'Massive' drone attack on Black Sea Fleet - Russia
Russia also accuses the UK of helping Ukrainians in their attacks - a claim the UK dismisses as "false".
www.bbc.com
Have you heard the one about 'combat mosquitoes'?
The Russians are playing down the impact of a mass drone attack on their ships in Sevastopol last night.
This footage from the sea drones (IF genuine) suggests more damage might have been done than they are letting on.
Reports coming in that their current flagship Admiral Makarov has been damaged.
Russia has now used these attacks as an excuse to back out of the grain initiative, but is now offering poor countries it's own grain.
This footage from the sea drones (IF genuine) suggests more damage might have been done than they are letting on.
Reports coming in that their current flagship Admiral Makarov has been damaged.
Russia has now used these attacks as an excuse to back out of the grain initiative, but is now offering poor countries it's own grain.
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Old joke by now but the Black Sea submarine fleet continues to grow.
Lots online about the attack and Russia has confirmed. Seems to be a combined force attack, drone boats and aircraft. Remember when the Moscow was hit it was just a flesh wound, then it was being moved to port, then it was not on fire, then silence, then yes maybe it sank but don’t talk about it.
Lots online about the attack and Russia has confirmed. Seems to be a combined force attack, drone boats and aircraft. Remember when the Moscow was hit it was just a flesh wound, then it was being moved to port, then it was not on fire, then silence, then yes maybe it sank but don’t talk about it.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
'Massive' drone attack on Black Sea Fleet - Russia
Russia also accuses the UK of helping Ukrainians in their attacks - a claim the UK dismisses as "false".
Funny how Russia defines 9 drones as "massive", but they are using hundreds of Iranian drones to take out Ukrainian power infrastructure.
Overall the rapid development of the drone war has clearly show one slice of future of warfare. The progress is phenomenal. Reminds me of the development of flight In wwii.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Softened em up with drones, now time for a dozen or so Harpoons to send em to Davie Jone's locker.
If Russia has no Black Sea fleet left, then who cares if they back out of the grain initiative.
Putin is hoping to freeze Ukrainians this winter by destroying civilian infrastructure. But it's likely the winter will be more difficult for the Russian invaders.
As Ukraine continues to weaken Russian logistics/supply lines, Russian fuel and ammunition depots and other supply caches are being pushed further back from their front. It's going to be a cold/wet winter for Russian forces and that is more likely to break their morale and will to fight than the Ukrainians.
As Ukraine continues to weaken Russian logistics/supply lines, Russian fuel and ammunition depots and other supply caches are being pushed further back from their front. It's going to be a cold/wet winter for Russian forces and that is more likely to break their morale and will to fight than the Ukrainians.
Svatove encirclement has begun from N &S cutting a gap between Svatove and Kremninia which would make the defense of Kremninia more difficult as well. We could be seeing an attempt to breach the defense in 3 vectors creating multiple pockets that are no longer able to support one another. Supposedly a new commander for this area for russia.
Kherson remains a bloodbath. The elite paratrooper battalion has been rotated out so someone on russian side has a brain.
Kherson remains a bloodbath. The elite paratrooper battalion has been rotated out so someone on russian side has a brain.
Or it could be the Stuka which was the wonder weapon of the Spanish Civil War and the early going in WW II, but proved very vulnerable against the well laid out RAF defense network in 1940.
Supply is more crucial in winter than summer. In March Russians were freezing to death north of Kyiv. In another month the Russian conscripts will be facing the same problems again, now with a degraded supply system and shortages of everything.
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