Russia can control the Black Sea from the Crimea using land-based weapons, I think.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
They do have land based missile systems, but only the Russians know how many they have left. They have been using anti-shipping missiles to attack land targets.
The pace of innovation, across multiple geographies, does not make the risks of it being the stuka. Rather it is stuka was part of an industry that saw biplanes fighter and bombings launching from aircraft carriers, fixed landing craft dive bombers, and open cockpits italian strategic bombers in 1939. 6 years later we had guided flying bombs and jet aircraft and pressurized cabins. The pace of innovation was amazing..fundamental material engineering, design, innovation, on and on.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Big difference between sending out a ship to conduct "inspections" of grain vessels which slow deliveries, vs. sending land-based missiles against civilian grain carriers. Russia could lose China over such a move.
My point is that there are multiple technologies in development right now that will likely make drones less effective by the next war. We may be seeing a window where there is a new technology, but the technologies to effectively counter the new technology isn't there yet.
There will be edge cases where drones will be effective when the counter measures are absent, but I suspect overall drones will be less effective in the next war.
The pace of aircraft engineering was quite high in the 1930s and 1940s. Early in the war some very obsolete designs were in use due to this pace. The British were still flying some Gloster Gladiators and the Hawker Fury had just been retired. At the same time the Spitfire was coming into use.
When the Germans invaded in 1941 the most numerous fighter in the Russian arsenal was the Polikarpov I-16 Rata and they even had some I-15s in service, but they also had a relative handful of MiG-3 fighters.
The biggest problem the Ukrainians are having with the Iranian drones is that they are easy to shoot down, but the missiles the Ukrainains are using are more expensive than the drones. Because the drones are going after important targets, the Ukrainians need to shoot them down, but they expend an expensive missile to do it. I think it was Trent Telenko who made the case the Russians are doing the drone attacks as a form of SAED on the Ukrainians by forcing them to use up their SAMs.
What they need are cheap ways to shoot down these drones that make it much more cost effective. In development are electromagnetic weapons, small missiles, radar directed guns, and I believe a system that can fire different types of AA fire depending on the target, a small missile or gun for a drone, or a regular SAM for a manned aircraft.
I thought a good stop gap would be Hind helicopters. They have a chin turret gun and can match speed with the drones.
The very fact that there is enourrmass effort focused on suppressing drones proves the point that it is not a blip. There was similar effort on suppressing aircraft in wwii.
A combat platform divorced from the need to protect a human ( pressure cabins, space, armor, weight, etc) offers a world of opportunity.
A combat platform divorced from the need to protect a human ( pressure cabins, space, armor, weight, etc) offers a world of opportunity.
Tiger
Active Member
By the next war? How about just plug the holes in the international ban on wars in general? Ban authoritarians, require some basic level of democracy and freedom of speech (against the establishment). Enforce bans. Finance bans at UN level in a similar manner as NATO is financed. Can't be harder than escaping to Mars.
About Lapin who was fired. He was a Putin favorite so read into that what you will.
ISW has some speculation as well the read on the Ukraine POV on wartranslated should informative if of interest.
Yesterday combat losses by Russia were staggering. 900 Kia, loss of dozens of APC, many artillery. Something is happening. Operation security remains very tight.
What is likely to happen is a battle of counter measures and then drones designed to defeat the counter measures. This will keep the major players operating drones, but we'll see commercial drones with grenades strapped on become obsolete. The proliferation of cheap drones is a feature of this war, but will likely be nullified in the near future.
All nice on paper, but lacking in specifics. How do you propose we tell China they have to change their government and how do we enforce it?
Sanctions work to cripple an economy, but they don't force dictators from power. Cuba is an example of that.
Authoritarians leave power in only a handful of ways: they die of natural causes, their people get fed up with them and kick them out (or assassinate them), or somebody invades from the outside and removed them. Often the authoritarian is replaced with another authoritarian or the country goes into a tailspin with no cohesive leadership.
I wish it was otherwise, but there is little we can do about it.
Here is the threadreader link to the same story
Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App
A little easier to read and worth it. The Russian army can't even get water to their troops and they try to motivate them with threats of violence.
The Russian losses reported by the Ukrainians yesterday are very high. There was a high report a few days ago too. That's an indication there is some very heavy fighting going on somewhere. From what I can tell there is a lot of activity in northern Luhansk.
It looks like Putin doesn't want the world to get any open intelligence on what happened to the Black Sea fleet. He's blocked Telegram
Tiger
Active Member
I wouldn't consider China the top priority, start with low hanging fruits first. If they have ongoing wars with someone, then those would be a priority. A smart move would be to join a mutual alliance with china on the issue.
The problem is we treat such countries as autonomous countries. If the new rule would be that authoritarian leaders are internationally wanted fugitives "wanted dead or alive" with huge prize money on their heads, things would start to change. Such status would be issued by some UN supreme court (similar to human rights court, but according to new rules that "authoritarians" are illegal). Anways, nobody said it would be easy, but for sure better (and easier) than trying to escape humanity to Mars where such laws can be established on the get-go. Authoritarians would be faced with a choice: give up your power or face the cosequences.
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Almost sounds like a Star Chamber.
Anyway, should we start a Poll on when this invasion is over with (all foreign troops out of Ukraine (Crimea)?
It would seem inevitable that if Russia keeps losing (even slowly) ground, that someone will finish off Putin. Or perhaps if he is in his bunker, simply lock it up and cut off outside communication. Might need to eliminate his bodyguards.
Anyway, should we start a Poll on when this invasion is over with (all foreign troops out of Ukraine (Crimea)?
It would seem inevitable that if Russia keeps losing (even slowly) ground, that someone will finish off Putin. Or perhaps if he is in his bunker, simply lock it up and cut off outside communication. Might need to eliminate his bodyguards.
I think he realised that as it was only affected for an hour.
Tiger
Active Member
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
Lots to talk about.
Not the right thread; the Mods want this one on topic.
Tiger
Active Member
Yeah, should we spin a new thread on “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good people to do nothing”?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This image is from a recently smuggled video of the Russian assault on Bakhmut:
Soviet-style. It's what they know. Criminal actions taken by unaccountable leadership; eventually something has to go. I hope its those leaders.
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ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
Are those….bodies?This image is from a recently smuggled video of the Russian assault on Bakhmut:
Soviet-style. It's what they know. Criminal actions taken by unaccountable leadership; eventually something has to go. I hope its those leaders.
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