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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Sorry, work intruded on musing. It enables one to strike East/NE ( in direction of Troistke) which threatens not only the supply depots close to russia but also supports the envelopment of Svatove. It's an important point to capture. The train supply line out of Troistke runs down to Starobilsk, there were two lines out of russia (urazovo, one went to Kupanisk (already captured) then to Svatove then to Severodonetsk- that line is not useful now since Ukraine fully controls that route. The other line is what supplies Luhansk. The line emerges from the russian salient at urazovo and heads down to Troistke then down to Staroblisk. If you move north it would effectively cut the supply line. If you move East and south it acts as a large encirlement and would put much of northern Luhansk in jepordy.
Remember the field defenses that looked like WWI creations that Wagner was emplacing. They did not include either Troistke or Staroblisk. It indicates to me that they think the entire north Luhansk is impossible to save. The question that will be answered is as Ukraine pushes against the line of conflict which will be the weak point? The smaller west-east road through Kuzemivka which would allow Ukraine to move to cut the rail lines or the move straight east and then SE to Staroblisk which supports cutting the lines and encirclement. Analytically it will be interesting. FYI Lapins HQ was in Staroblisk. All of this is subject to discussion online so no secrets here. Also all discussion assumes the same overall goal, liberating Luhansk and supporting freeing all Ukraine.
The Ukrainians shot down three more Russian Ka-52 Alligators today. Two within 3 minutes outside Kherson.
www-newsweek-com.cdn.ampproject.org
Ukraine shoots down 2 Russian "Alligators" in 3 minutes: Defense officials
Ukraine's Armed Forces said they downed two of Russia's deadliest attack helicopters as it thwarted another wave of air strikes.
www-newsweek-com.cdn.ampproject.org
And another 4 Ka 52s damaged or destroyed inside Russia. Not a good day for the Russian chopper fleet.
www.forbes.com
Ukrainian Saboteurs Reportedly Blew Up Russian Helicopters 500 Miles From Ukraine
Ukrainian saboteurs have damaged or destroyed another four Ka-52s at an airfield in western Russia, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency.
www.forbes.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
Looking at the various photos of firefighting etc it appears to me that Russia has deliberately targetted the HV infrastructure - generators, transformers, switchyards. In the full knowledge that these are long lead time items and that much of the damage is not repairable and therefore requires replacement. This stuff is not on the shelf - for example the UK might keep enough stuff to rebuild half of one large switchyard in emergency stock. The Iranian drones are precise enough to hit the critical items within a metre or so.
The amount of damage done would come close to absorbing much of the global production of these items for about one year, once it is safe to proceed. Don't get hung up on Russian/Soviet vs Western - the stuff is pretty interchangeable given the sort of rebuild required.
I think this constitutes a war crime by Russia.
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SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
And apparently now is the time to start 'preparing' the Russian people that 'there will have to be' barrier troops.
I guess the lie that there haven't been any this far isn't working anymore...
(Given that the translation is correct of course. I do not understand Russian...)
I guess the lie that there haven't been any this far isn't working anymore...
(Given that the translation is correct of course. I do not understand Russian...)
For those of you with an interest in railwau gauges in and out of Ukraine. Two competing pathways to resolving things. But could be both not just one.
Ukrainian agrarians want a broad gauge connection to Gdansk
The All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (BAP) and the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Forum (VAF) asked the Polish government to build railway lines equipped with the Russian broad rail gauge. With this appeal, Ukrainian agrarians hope to connect Poland, specifically the port of Gdansk, with the Ukrainian and...www.railfreight.com
or
Not broad gauge to Europe, but normal gauge to Ukraine
The possibility of extending the European railway gauge to Ukraine and Moldova has become more than just a proposal. The European Commission and the European Investment Bank (EIB) have launched a pre- feasibility study, which they call ‘a key step in preparing for better EU–Ukraine and Moldova...
The best thing for Ukraine to do is change the gauge to the European gauge. All the former Soviet Republics should change gauge. It would make any future military actions by Russia much more difficult. Russia's ground forces are essentially impotent once they get beyond Russian gauge rail lines.
It's very difficult to defend Luhansk from the north. The terrain doesn't have many places where anyone can mount an effective defense. The Russians have been throwing everything into their current defensive line because there is nothing else. Once Svatove falls, Luhansk will likely collapse fairly quickly. Then the defense of Donesk will be made more difficult.
By the end of the year Ukraine could be in control of most of Donesk and Luhansk could be in Ukrainian hands.
The Russians can't switch core strategies when they aren't working. They have found an opponent they can't scare into submission and they can't conceive of a plan B. It's outside of their cultural consciousness.
Within their way of fighting war, this is a good strategy. But also probably a war crime.
If I was a manufacturer of sub-station components I would be putting on an extra shift or two at the factory.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I'm 100% for ATACMS. If Russia is going to continue this, Ukraine should be allowed to strike military targets in Russia (but not civilian). Bases, weapons depots, etc. should all be fair game.
Tiger
Active Member
How many lines do the Russians have to just kill their own troops in front of them? What's to stop line 2 from joining with line 1 to kill line 3? Maybe the Ukrainians need to take out the second and third lines so the front line can just run away with line 2 and line 3.
At some point this Russian house of cards has to fall. Does Putin never leave his bunker?
No, didn't you know it's his body doubles we see?
Ukraine resurfaces Putin body double claim, asks if Russian leader "exists"
While unconfirmed, the claims underscore speculation that Putin may be suffering from poor health or his long hold on power in Russia could be in peril.
www.newsweek.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
1. You are misunderstanding the railways issue ... both are possible, it is not an eirher/or situation .... sorry.
2. I basically run an HV manufacturer. There are only three of us in the world ...... The Russians are nor targetting sub stations, they are targetting other more critical things. I am not putting an extra shift on.
I think the point is if Ukraine and all the other former eastern block countries switch to the standard European gauge it would be one more thing to deter Russia from invading since they are so reliant on rail transport.
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
Being somewhat of a railroad buff, I've been reading up on it.
In 1886, the US converted just over 11,000 miles to standard gauge in 36 hours. Took quite a bit of preparation though.
The Great Gauge Change of 1886 - Discovery Park of America: Museum and Heritage Park
Nov. 20, 2020 - In May of 1886, the United States was in the midst of what is now known as the Gilded Age. This period was marked by a rapidly developing economy and the cultural reunification of the North and South. Over the course of 20 years, the average wage for an industrial worker
discoveryparkofamerica.com
petit_bateau
Active Member
And it has gotten considerably more difficult since then. I don't know which ways this will go, but it is unlikely to be very rapid.Being somewhat of a railroad buff, I've been reading up on it.
In 1886, the US converted just over 11,000 miles to standard gauge in 36 hours. Took quite a bit of preparation though.
The Great Gauge Change of 1886 - Discovery Park of America: Museum and Heritage Park
Nov. 20, 2020 - In May of 1886, the United States was in the midst of what is now known as the Gilded Age. This period was marked by a rapidly developing economy and the cultural reunification of the North and South. Over the course of 20 years, the average wage for an industrial worker
glhs272
Unnamed plug faced villian
Railroading is my profession. Changing rail gauge is a big task. From what I have seen on the internet (I have never been to Europe, let a alone Ukraine) most of Ukraine's railroad utilizes concrete railroad ties (sleepers). Therefore you will need to completely change all of the ties to change the railroad gauge. With wood ties, you could at least in theory just un-spike one rail, adze the new tie plate seat area, then spike it back together at the new gauge. So not a quick and easy project for Ukraine.
Good to hear further perspectives. The Economist recently ran a story and noted part of the problem is equipment compatibility. They noted most of the step-down transformers Ukraine uses are old Soviet five-step systems and that transformers are built to handle specific voltages - those built for western European systems cannot be drop in replacements for older Ukrainian ones.
Makes sense if a whole rebuild is in order - the Economist point may be a moot one.
They also noted that European switches use a different type of insulating gas from Soviet ones, but mention that could still be substituted.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Grad MLRS unit in action up close. Interesting channel.
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