Hopefully Putler and the Kremlin start getting the message that things won't be getting any easier going forward.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Scholz already did everything possible to stall the supply of Leopard 2s to Ukraine, without much of a justification, this was clear even to the German media in the recent press conference before they agreed to let the tanks be supplied, with the media questioning if Germany was acting like a leader (which the US DOD had to respond in a way to defend Germany by pointing to previous supply of equipment).
The US on the other hand had actual logic behind their decisions on the Abrams: as pointed out up thread, if they were to send the M1A1, it would have taken 8-10 months to refurb.
Now sending the M1A2 will also take a while because by federal policy (which existed regardless of Ukraine) the US must strip classified equipment (like the depleted uranium armor in the US spec ones) before exporting. For making new tanks, they have existing orders to places like Poland and Taiwan (so they must negotiate with them if they were to let Ukraine cut in line). Taiwan was already not happy with their Paladin order being significantly delayed (to the point it is as good as cancelled now) due to Ukraine taking up howitzer capacity (and their need is quite urgent given China's recent actions), although the offering of HIMARS (which recently had been proven in battle) and the recent grants have addressed that somewhat.
U.S. to send Ukraine more advanced Abrams tanks — but no secret armor
From outside appearances, the only reason for Germany stalling seemed to be age old fear/appeasement of Russia, which Putin likely was banking on. With Germany "leadership" alone, and with limited US help (which might have happened if the presidential election didn't go the way it did), European resolve may have shortly fallen like a house of cards, forcing Ukraine to make huge concessions. The US is trying its best look ahead and to keep everyone together and even to save Germany from looking bad in the process. This is why we are agreeing to send Abrams even if it doesn't make operational sense at this moment.
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The USAF insignia is referred to as the star and bars. Still my goof.
USAF National Star and Bars Insignia Military Aircraft Roundel - AN-I-9b (Amend #2) - Decal or Paint Mask
Authentic World War II U.S. Army Air Force National Star and Bars Insignia drawn to Military Tech Order Specs. Available in decal and paint mask format on high quality materials.
www.aircorpsart.com
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One point not discussed is that with a minimum number of aircraft today Ukraine has to be extra careful in losses, it preserves planes but limits scope of activity. It may be much more useful to be able to accept a certain amount of attrition ; same as in tanks. Thus any signify increase in planes has value above just a better plane and weapons system.
Would argue a major component of why Germany appears to consistently drag its feet on weaponry assistance to Ukraine is left out of the conversation.
It’s not Scholz or his Ampel Coalition per se. As pointed out recently in this thread, Germany needs to be careful to maintain enough popular support.
A major problem lies in former “East Germany” where polls there consistently show some relative residual suspicion of the West and relative sympathy for Russia due to decades of Russian occupation and being fed that Cool-Aide. Former East Germans are slowly coming around, but it will likely take another generation for attitudes there to be more thoroughly "European".
It’s not Scholz or his Ampel Coalition per se. As pointed out recently in this thread, Germany needs to be careful to maintain enough popular support.
A major problem lies in former “East Germany” where polls there consistently show some relative residual suspicion of the West and relative sympathy for Russia due to decades of Russian occupation and being fed that Cool-Aide. Former East Germans are slowly coming around, but it will likely take another generation for attitudes there to be more thoroughly "European".
Well let’s hope the Dutch are first of several to donate a squadron of f16s.
I was not aware of the ammunition stowage. The Chieftain came to the same conclusion you did.
USA authorising NL seems to be the rumour out there.
F-16 for Ukraine – Gamechanger or Liability?
As high-level discussions on this topic continue, only time will tell if Ukraine will be donated F-16s.ukdefencejournal.org.uk
Netherlands would consider helping Ukraine with F-16 fighters, Leopard 2 tanks
The Dutch Cabinet will look into supplying F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine if the Kyiv government asks for it. During a parliamentary debate on Thursday, Minister Wopke Hoekstra of Foreign Affairs said the Cabinet would look at such a request with an “open mind.” In Davos, Minister Kajsa Ollongren...nltimes.nl
Netherlands open to supplying F-16 fighters to Ukraine if requested - AeroTime
The Dutch government has said it is ready to consider the delivery of F-16 fighters to Ukraine with an “open mind.”www.aerotime.aero
I believe the Netherlands are scheduled to upgrade to F-35s soon. That may be prompting their talk of donation of their F-16s.
Getting F-16s from somebody who just upgraded to F-35s is a good move. The planes are probably in top condition and don't need any significant refurb like any planes taken out of storage.
The 8-10 months probably would have included replacing the armor, which involves pretty much rebuilding the tank at that point. Cutting apart the uranium armor to remove it is probably a pretty hazardous job. Chemically uranium is highly toxic. Measures have to be taken to ensure nothing gets inhaled or ingested.
Germany does have to deal with a larger peacenik crowd than many countries, but their ambivalence against war has led to the military being very hamstrung.
An example of this is the plight of the German naval ship the Gorch Fock. It's a sailing vessel built in 1958 for training. In 2016 it went into the shipyards for a 17 week repair and refit that was supposed to cost 10 million Euros. The repairs were finally complete in late 2021 and it cost 135 million Euros. There was some hidden damage found during repairs, but German military bureaucracy was responsible for most of the delays and cost overruns.
German Navy's oldest sail training ship back in service after long sailing break
Some years ago the German army set out to find a new helmet for their troops. The leading candidate early on was to just buy the same helmet the US uses which has been proven in combat. However their bureaucracy has tied up the order for years insisting on German done testing and other requirements.
The German military has a very low readiness compared to other NATO nations because it's so difficult to get anything done on the procurement side.
It's a very dysfunctional system. The broken German procurement and maintenance system is not the only problem, but it's a contributing factor.
I strongly suspect the US is diverting some Abrams from the Polish order.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/26/us-sends-ukraine-advanced-abrams-tanks-00079648
There is probably some internal appeasement of the anti-war factions in the German government, but there is also the factor that the German military is very inefficient at getting anything done. Earlier in the war there was a lot of criticism of Germany dragging its feet about delivering what it promised. The delivery delays were probably more related to their system being so inefficient when preparing the equipment than anything political. Scholz is now more aware how broken their systems are and he's sandbagging because of it.
A look inside a T64 tank.
www.cnn.com
Video: See Ukrainian soldiers use Soviet-era tanks against Russia | CNN
CNN Senior International Correspondent Frederik Pleitgen goes to the front lines near Bakhmut, Ukraine, with a unit fighting Russian forces in a Soviet-era T-64 tank.
www.cnn.com
Sobering and appropriate from a trusted source. It is easy to buy into all the news you like and ignore facts you don't like. Regardless we have to support Ukraine through this struggle.
petit_bateau
Active Member
NATO accession process
www.theguardian.com
Erdoğan says Turkey may accept Finland into Nato without Sweden
Turkish president’s comments come amid tensions with Stockholm and threaten to derail the alliance’s hopes of expanding to 32 countries
www.theguardian.com
Who is supposed to care about "US federal policy"? Everyone else is supposed to change their policies, yet the US shouldn't be asked to do so? A tank that was designed to fight the Russians on the European plains, yet now it's too "secret" to do so? How risible is that?
Germany has already delivered the brand-new air defense system Iris-T to Ukraine, well ahead of any Patriot systems, and had to ask Egypt to kindly accept a later delivery date, yet the US expects a pat on the shoulder for doing the same towards Taiwan and Poland?
Scholz is also not obliged to inform certain media outlets in detail about negotiations, as long as these are still ongoing.
Finally, Europeans spent a lot of blood and treasure on America's hare-brained campaign in Afghanistan and had to watch in amazement that "Fall of Saigon" rerun in Kabul, yet their criticism was very muted. The same approach may be expected in reverse by the US. It's our new Eastern European friends who believe in diplomacy by yelling in public at the top of their lungs.
Yes, the procurement system of the Bundeswehr leaves a lot to be desired. Yet it's hardly the only one. Just look at the US: the Littoral Combat Ship, with basically new ships now being replaced by an Italian frigate, because the LCSs were basically useless; the Osprey, a flying coffin and the F35 itself, with huge project overruns. You may also look at the UK: their new IFV "Ajax", which is such a heap of junk, that the whole project may have to be abandoned, at a cost of almost 5 billion £ to the taxpayer; or their flagship, the aicraft carrier Prince of Wales, which made it all the way from Portsmouth to the Isle of Wight before breaking down, when it was supposed to go to the US (ships with that name seem to be unlucky anyway).
It's the French who seem to get the most bang for the buck.
Basically Russia still has some fight left, but he also made the point that Russia can't generate the force needed to conquer Ukraine. He points out that one of Russia's strengths is the ability to take losses that would be staggering to other powers and keep going, but history has shown that the Russian troops do reach a point where they can't tolerate the bleeding anymore and they revolt. This breaking point is much more likely if Russia is also losing ground on all fronts.
I'm glad NATO is now decided to give Ukraine what it needs to go on the offensive and win.
I have thought for some time the US should seriously scale back or eliminate the littoral navy. The last time anybody conducted the sort of invasion that navy was built for was 1950. It's terrific for an island hopping campaign like the US conducted in WW II, but that scenario is unlikely to crop up again.
The US has had some incredible failures of new high tech systems and subsequent cancellation of programs because of it. Any military trying to build cutting edge tech is going to have failures. Some are going to be pretty expensive.
I never thought the F-35 was ever going to make it to full production. It's an extremely ambitious design pushing the boundaries of what engineering can do.
The German procurement system is broken end to end. They seem unable to get parts for systems that have been in service for years. And they can't seem to get it together to get new equipment that has been well proven in other forces. Germany's problems are an order of magnitude worse than US or UK procurement processes.
Perun did a video on Germany's problems
German training is first rate, German industry makes some of the best kit in the world, but the government can't seem to get the Euros lined up at the right time to get what the military needs.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
And yet, here were are, where Germany is significantly falling behind on support for Ukraine compared to other EU countries. It's only in the past 2-3 months that they have firmed up their commitments, only after the USA, Poland, UK, France, and others have DELIVERED hundreds of billions in equipment to Ukraine.
No, Germany needs to talk less, and act more.
And no, that's not me excusing the USA either. They need to drop-ship about 1 Trillion of gear to Ukraine. They do that, this war is over inside of 2 months.
Clearly the USA is putting some onus on Ukraine and the quid pro quo is clearly to destroy Russia’s ability to wage war and that is not done in a short fast fight. I hate to say it but Ukraine is going to pay for freedom by a long drawn out fight just as the dutch and French did with the colonies in the revolution. They could have Brought 5000 soldiers to USA or Poland last summer For training and dropped 300 Abrams And 600 Bradley’s onto Ukraine this winter and it is over already. instead we bleed Russia , cripple economy, cause stress that crippled the political structure. It is a strategy and Ukraine is playing its part
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Well,you are entitled to your own opinion, you aren't entitled to yor own facts. Germany is ranked third in military support for Ukraine after the US and UK. Additionally Germany pays the largest share of the huge EU support package for Ukraine (while the Eastern European members are net recipients of EU funds). Finally, Germany has taken in a million refugees from Ukraine, who are entitled to full social benefits.
Your fact-free BS isn't really worth any further comment.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Sources please. Because everything posted here, and what can be easily googled, shows that countries like Poland have provided FAR more support to Ukraine then Germany. Both in terms of absolute $$$, and in terms of % of their GDP. Do I even need to mention how many refugees they have taken in?
The USA is obviously the largest $$$ contributor, but it's a drop in the bucket of our GDP. Honestly, in most cases it probably costs us more to maintain the hardware we are donating (since most of it is near end of life), than to give it away. Still, it's impressive how our old kit has allowed a 3rd-rate power to stave off the bulk of the Russian ground power over the past year. As I said previously, just imaging if we actually donated 1T of kit. Game over.
mars_or_bust
Member
It was in fact German pro Russia policy, from Schroeder and onwards, which enabled this war and fianced Russia to wage it, in spite of frequent explicit US warnings. Germany has (again!) a veeeery heavy burden to bear regarding the start of this war. It would behove Germany to (finally!) show some guilt and contrition and go all-in against Russia. This war is of Germany's making, and is a huge threat to all of Europe, including Germany, and once again, like 3 times before (WWI, WWII, Yugoslav wars), it is US saving Europe's ass.
