nativewolf
Active Member
huge losses again. Yesterday we saw a giant number of MLRS systems something out of normal.
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On the Nordstream pipelines in the Baltic matter : in my previous life I have mobilised and authorised diving activities on the various pipelines and flowlines (etc) I have had responsibility for. Plus other subsea and seabed activities. There are circumstances in which pipelines can be awkward to locate, but I don't think that these circumstances apply to the Nordstream pipelines. However the Nordstream pipelines are non-trivial structures at a significant depth (~80m from memory) so one doesn't casually have a go. But clearly someone did, and very successfully so. It will be interesting to see what evidence becomes publically available.Point taken
The US could contract with a civilian salvage ship to sail into the Black Sea. US military personnel could meet the ship once it's in the sea and the US military people carry out the actual salvage. Then before returning to the Mediterranean all military personnel leave the ship along with all military equipment. If they can't fly everything off the ship, it can be done with locally hired ships from Romania.
If the US needs to encourage the Turks to only look at this as a civilian operation with regards the Montreaux Convention, they could offer the Turks some sweet deals on military hardware or some other perks. Erdogan is probably getting a bit nervous about his money coming from Russia drying up, increased aid from the US would help fill the gap. Turkey is also trying to recover from the earthquakes.
huge losses again. Yesterday we saw a giant number of MLRS systems something out of normal.
On the Black Sea matter of recovering the MQ-9 stuff. The Montreux Convention basically rules out transit of any submarines except for the defined Black Sea states (of which the USA is definitely not one). So thoughts of moving a US submarine into the Black Sea through the Dardanelles are pretty much nipped in the bud. In any case submarines per se are not terribly helpful, except as carriers for the various 'military' swimmer/etc delivery vehicles. The sonars on a typical 'warfare' submarine aren't really designed to go scanning the seabed for light aircraft wreckage at ~800m or so.
Also the Turks have now recognised a state of war is de facto in existence, and in accordance with the treaty have closed the Dardanelles to all military traffic, including NATO vessels. My recollection is that the US flags its auxiliaries as USN, which is different than the (uncommon) UK practice of flagging its auxiliaries under the blue ensign as RFA, not RN. The implication is that the USN would struggle to convince the Turks that a USN auxiliary (however recently 'taken up from trade', i.e. chartered) was not a military vessel. Especially if it had any form of submarine strapped to its deck. (By the way I cannot recall if any significant UK auxiliary exceeding the 15,000 tonne single-vessel-limit has ever transited under the treaty). The Turks are very serious about ensuring the treaty is complied with.
Much more likely in my opinion is that - in due course - the US may charter some civilian vessels that are already in the Black Sea, and utilise them out of Romanian ports/etc. Or use the various vessels that the Romanians and Bulgarians (ie. NATO states) already have in the Black Sea. They have probably already used those and the aviation assets (primarily helos) to sweep for any floating debris that the Russians haven't already snagged. There was some internet chatter that some Russian small vessels had recovered some debris, but there was little proof of evidence behind that. I guess we will find out. The US will hope that the heavy and interesting bit - namely the podded sensor(s) - broke off on seasurface impact and is by now safely a very long way down, buried in the mud. Trying to locate something about a foot long in the mud and likely greatly dispersed well away from wherever the light wreckage went is unlikely to be easy. (caveat being I don't know if the MQ9 has a pinger, but even so the batteries in those don't last that long). The sort of gear required to locate it is generally deployed off of fairly small vesels and so no need to utilise significant warships at all. (and it can all be aircraft-delivered to ports/airfields in the area). If they do locate it then retrieval would be next on the list, and that might require something more significant if they went the manned semisub route, as opposed to the USV route. Personally I would expect the USV route. The Russians have many of the same capabilities, but in reality given the location etc I don't think it will be that high on their list of priorities except for the opportunistic sweep they have also probably already done.
Clearly the US is downplaying the short term significance of this. It is not really in anyone's interests to make too great a political hoo hah out of it right now. However I expect some US overwatch assets will be in evidence from now on. Much the same way as the UK has put its overwatch assets (Typhoons) out alongside its ELINT aircraft ever since the Russians accidentally loosed off a missile from their interceptor several months ago. Whether that was a genuine switchology whoops, or a deliberate accidental release, is not something I expect to become public. But nonetheless the UK has put Typhoons out alongside the ELINT aircraft ever since.
March 15, 2023 Russia-Ukraine news
Russia said it will try to retrieve the wreckage of the US drone downed over the Black Sea on Tuesday.edition.cnn.com
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On a slightly different matter I get a lot of military aviation training traffic around me. For example a pair of jungly Merlins have just gone over. I distinctly get the feeling that the low flying altitude restrictions have been adjusted downwards.
The Montreux Convention, agreed to in 1936, prohibits submarines from passing through the Bosporus Strait, which connects the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.
Russian Black Sea Sub Deployments to Mediterranean Could Violate Treaty
news.usni.org › 2020/07/08 › russian-black-sea-sub-deployments-to-medit...
US releases video of Russian fighter jet forcing down reaper drone:
At least one person was killed and two were injured in an explosion that caused a fire at an FSB Border Service Department building in Russia, local authorities said.
Near the end of the clip, one can see the propeller damage.US releases video of Russian fighter jet forcing down reaper drone:
It looks like the fuel dump may have been what damaged the prop from that video. I would expect more damage from direct contact with the jet.
Not "with the jet". It's direct contact with fuel.What? Dumping fuel on the drone from a distance of 20 feet IS DIRECT CONTACT.
It doesn't really matter if there was direct contact with the jet or not. The intent was clearly to crash the drone.What? Dumping fuel on the drone from a distance of 20 feet IS DIRECT CONTACT.