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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Sounds like Russia's hypersonic missiles might have an Achille's heel related to slowing for final targeting. Apparently UKR was able to shoot one down with a Patriot missile.
Terrain often dictates tactics in warfare. So does the equipment you have and how well prepared the enemy is. By the time of the Kherson offensive Ukraine was starting to get western weapons, but the vehicles were mostly things like HUMVEEs which can't stand up to tanks or even the autocannons on BMPs. The Russians were also dug in well in the Kherson area and the terrain is flat with little cover.
The Ukrainians had a choice between going fast and taking massive casualties or going slow and taking fewer casualties. They opted for the latter.
The southern part of Ukraine where people are expecting the offensive is also very flat, but they have a lot of much better vehicles than they did last summer, and the Russians are a lot weaker than they were then. Russia has lost a lot of the vehicles that made the Kherson operation more dangerous, and they have lost a lot of troops over the winter. They did preserve most of their more experienced troops over most of the winter, but then they threw them into Kherson a few weeks ago.
Around Kherson the Russians built multiple layers of trenchlines and had them fully manned so the Ukrainians had to grind through them one after another. The Russians pulled the plug and ran when the Ukrainians reached the last trenchline before the city. The Russians have again built an extensive network of trenches, but they are defending a larger area with forces that are materially weaker, less experienced, and possibly fewer of them.
The Ukrainian offensive may not begin in the south and there are a number of experts who are saying it's not going to be fast, but I'm looking at the resources Ukraine has to work with this year. Ukraine's best troops trained in Europe have been trained in NATO combat techniques which usually involve moving quickly. The equipment they have been given are designed for that mission.
NATO doctrine is designed to keep casualties low while achieving the mission. One of the ways they do that is to hit the enemy hard, then exploit any openings as fast as possible to keep the enemy off balance. Breach followed by exploitation is not common in warfare, but it can collapse a front very quickly. NATO built forces to maximize the odds of pulling that off.
Successful breaches followed by exploitation were the invasion of France in 1940, the invasion of Poland in 1939, Barbarosa, France 1944 after the breakout from Normandy, and the active phase of the First Gulf War.
Operation Bagration by the Soviets in the summer of 1944 pulled off the breakthrough phase with tremendous success, but failed to execute the exploitation phase. The Soviets burned up their supplies and got their own troops too disorganized destroying Germany's Army Group Center and they couldn't exploit the massive hole they blew in the middle of the German line. It did achieve the goal the western allies wanted which was to tie down all the eastern front units so they couldn't be transferred to France.
The December 1944 Ardennes Offensive was a partially successful exploitation, but the western allies were able to bog down the German advance enough to allow the rest of the allied forces to respond. Throwing the 101st Airborne into Bastongne stalled the advance and then Patton's 3rd Army pivoting and going north completely ended it.
Patton was able to pivot quickly because of his staff. He picked up misfit staff officers who thought outside the box and didn't get along on other generals staffs. Among them was a genius at interpreting intelligence. He saw the German's building up in the Ardennes before anyone else did. Patton tried to warn Eisenhower's staff, but they didn't want to hear it and told Patton to ignore it because the Ardennes was not in his sector. When Patton learned of this, he told his staff to draw up a plan to pivot the 3rd Army as quickly as possible to bail out the forces to his north.
Patton wanted to hit the German flank and then get behind them. Eisenhower felt if the Germans had reserves they could cut off Patton and trap his force behind German lines. Instead he ordered Patton to make a frontal assault. After the war it turned out Patton was right, there were no reserves and if he had gone in behind the Germans, the allies would have trapped all the German forces in a pocket and eliminated them completely opening the western front. Instead the frontal assault allowed the Germans to withdraw most of their forces who fought the western allies to the end of the war.
But that's a tangent...
Ukraine does have the forces to exploit as well as the training. Though they may still plan to move slowly and cautiously.
Russia's hypersonic missiles are more advertising than reality. Just about all ballistic missiles go hypersonic. The V-2 did in 1944. But a true hypersonic missile is not a ballistic missile, it's a lower altitude cruise missile that travels hypersonic for most of its flight profile.
Ballistic missiles are easy to detect because they go so high in the atmosphere, but they are hard to shoot down because the anti-missile system needs to respond quickly. The missile is moving so fast if you get almost anything into its path, it will break up from impacting the object.
The Kaliber is just an Iskander missile adapted to be carried by a plane instead of launched from the ground. It has more range than an Iskander because being air launched it doesn't need to boost itself from ground level first.
The Patriot was basically doing the job it was designed for.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Not one report from Moscow residents of any air defense system engaging the incoming drone. At ~100 kts airspeed, it would have been easy to shoot down even with a light machine gun. Yet, no reports of shots fired...
'If the guard dog didn't bark, the assailant was familiar to the dog.'
The point @wdolson is that the Kherson offensive was a feint designed to isolate Russian forces in a region that could not support other fronts. You are making statements about terrain, weapons etc that while true ignore the goal of the strategy. Go slow and make Russia react to Kherson. They had plenty of forces to retake Kherson. They did not want to retake Kherson. They wanted to retake the north and take pressure off of Kharkiv. The delay in taking Kherson was not terrain, weapons, Russian equipment or anything else . They got Putin to fall for a trick and then just picked off whatever they could for weeks. With very few losses. Brilliant. They got their cake and ate it too.
They are doing the exact same thing here. It is being done brilliantly. Does Russia fall for it? We’ll see.
That Ass wipe at Wagner sees something coming and doesn’t know where so he is just pulling back- no fool I guess. Go anywhere other than where Ukraine wanted you to be, be somewhere you can retreat. Remember as things unfold that Russia is very good at retreat. The goat from Chechnya will no more have his soldiers in bhakmut than fly to the moon. Will Russia keep tens of thousands there when Ukraine counterattacks? I bet yes.
The south looks lightly defended but then so too was Kherson in April/May of last year.
They are doing the exact same thing here. It is being done brilliantly. Does Russia fall for it? We’ll see.
That Ass wipe at Wagner sees something coming and doesn’t know where so he is just pulling back- no fool I guess. Go anywhere other than where Ukraine wanted you to be, be somewhere you can retreat. Remember as things unfold that Russia is very good at retreat. The goat from Chechnya will no more have his soldiers in bhakmut than fly to the moon. Will Russia keep tens of thousands there when Ukraine counterattacks? I bet yes.
The south looks lightly defended but then so too was Kherson in April/May of last year.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Sometimes, the Universe maximizes irony: 
If the US was involved in drone attack Kremlin 'would be flat' | Rear Admiral Chris Parry | Times Radio
If the US was involved in drone attack Kremlin 'would be flat' | Rear Admiral Chris Parry | Times Radio
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
The Twitter account general_svr allegedly posting Kremlin leaks has now posted (in a three-part thread) that the Russian army has lost 195,754 men, which is dead plus maimed permanent losses. Terrorist organizations like Wagner (aka the Diktator's PMCs) have had an additional 65,091 killed, for a total of 260,845 men. As I understand it there are even more dead do add to all of this from the terrorist organizations LPR and DPR.
Ukraine reports 194,430 Russians killed since the start of the full-scale invasion last year according to the latest morning report.
Credit goes to (in Swedish):
cornucopia.se
Ukraine reports 194,430 Russians killed since the start of the full-scale invasion last year according to the latest morning report.
Credit goes to (in Swedish):
Skyhöga ryska förluster och Bakhmut håller
Ryssland tog skyhöga förluster under gårdagen efter ett förnyat försök att inta det brandbombade Bakhmut, men tog skyhöga förluster med inget annat än några kvarter att visa upp. Det är nu bara tvp dagar kvar tills den symboliskt viktiga Stalins segerdag för andra världskriget och Bakhmut håller än.
cornucopia.se
lolachampcar
Well-Known Member
The horrible reality of letting Russia bleed itself out. What a waste on both sides.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
I like Perun videos. Except when he wastes time telling us what he's gonna tell us instead of JUST TELLING US; I mean, it will be self-evident when he tells us, right?
Way way too much self promotion. I guess the older I get the less patience I have for that behavior. Strip it all out to a couple of mins of Ukraine managing the information space, expectations may be too high.
I think the info on Russia using Electronic warfare systems to effectively block GPS guided targeting systems is ...important. People are reporting that GPS systems in Moscow have gone haywire. HIMARS are not hitting correctly, etc. We are now in a cat/mouse game of measures and counter measures but overall this makes the pin point accurate systems more difficult to use and less useful. Just a data point for those constantly dismissing Russia's abilities.
The news that a Patriot took down the speedy russian cruise missiles is neat, again cat/mouse.
In terms of expectation management, almost half the promised tanks have yet to arrive and won't til mid summer. Just something to think about. Guess when ukraine plans to need those. Last year they talked about the Kherson counter offensive for months. Much ballyhoo ....many high publicity himars strikes, etc. Genuinely enjoyable watching experts.
nice write up and good graphics
The Twitter account general_svr allegedly posting Kremlin leaks has now posted (in a three-part thread) that the Russian army has lost 195,754 men, which is dead plus maimed permanent losses. Terrorist organizations like Wagner (aka the Diktator's PMCs) have had an additional 65,091 killed, for a total of 260,845 men. As I understand it there are even more dead do add to all of this from the terrorist organizations LPR and DPR.
Ukraine reports 194,430 Russians killed since the start of the full-scale invasion last year according to the latest morning report.
Credit goes to (in Swedish):
Skyhöga ryska förluster och Bakhmut håller
Ryssland tog skyhöga förluster under gårdagen efter ett förnyat försök att inta det brandbombade Bakhmut, men tog skyhöga förluster med inget annat än några kvarter att visa upp. Det är nu bara tvp dagar kvar tills den symboliskt viktiga Stalins segerdag för andra världskriget och Bakhmut håller än.
Most of the men of the LPR and DPR are dead at this point. The Russians press ganged them and threw them into the fight last summer. Their survival was about as bad as the Wagner prisoners.
I've thought that the published Ukraine numbers were either fictional numbers they made up, or they were based on actual confirmed "kills" of men and equipment. I've tended towards the latter, but the former is possible. If they are basing these numbers on confirmed killed and destroyed, then they are low. It doesn't account for wounded men who did manage to get evacuated and died of their injuries or men who were killed and the Ukrainians didn't see it to confirm it.
Additionally their equipment losses would be higher than the Ukrainian numbers. Some video has surfaced of Russian vehicles inside Russia that were stripped of all usable parts. Wheels, axles, engines, any chassis parts that could be stripped. Those vehicles are complete write offs, but they aren't in the numbers for losses. When a vehicle is out of production, the fleet will shrink as some are cannibalized to keep the rest going. That has been a constant since militaries mechanized.
Another factor with these numbers leaked from the Kremlin is they probably don't cover the losses field commanders have lied about. Commanders have an incentive to under report their losses. They continue to get pay for the dead troops, plus they aren't admitting to higher up command that they just lost 1/2 the unit in one battle. So the numbers coming from the front line units are lower than reality.
As a result, the Kremlin's numbers may be lower than reality too, for different reasons.
The problem with jamming equipment is that leaves a signature too. The sort of jammers Russia needs to jam the GPS on HIMARS will show up as a big bright hotspot to EM sensors, which make them a target for HARM weapons. The thing to do in any area where HIMARS are being jammed is to launch a few HIMARS missiles followed by a HARM. HIMARS get jammed and the HARM takes out the jamming equipment.
This game happened in the Battle for the Atlantic too. The Allies started equipping patrol bombers with radar that could spot surfaced submarines, then the submarines started using equipment that jammed the radar. Next the Allies started using equipment that detected the jammers.
The story with the Patriot shoot down of the missile is basically "Patriot system does what it was designed to do." I don't find that all that remarkable. If the Ukrainians came up with a way to take out the strategic bombers in the air before they could launch, that would be noteworthy.
Russia Has a Vodka Addiction. So Does Vladimir Putin – But Not the Same Way.
The Russian leader is famously sober. There’s a reason that his country isn’t.
www.politico.com
GREAT READ
Russia Has a Vodka Addiction. So Does Vladimir Putin – But Not the Same Way.
The Russian leader is famously sober. There’s a reason that his country isn’t.
GREAT READ
In 2016 at least 53 people died in the Siberian city of Irkutsk from drinking bath lotion containing methanol and antifreeze. You've got to have a serious drinking problem when you're swigging down bath lotion.
And more recently:
Russia: Counterfeit alcohol poisoning claims 34 lives in Orenburg region
In Russias Orenburg region, around 64 people were poisoned by surrogate alcohol earlier this week, 34 of them have died after consuming it.
www-republicworld-com.cdn.ampproject.org
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BitJam
Active Member
Ukraine Readies 10,000 Drone Pilots Ahead of Counteroffensive
www.newsweek.com
According to Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's deputy prime minister and minister for innovation, development of education, science and technology, and its minister of digital transformation.
An armada of 10,000 piloted drones could change the game. The money they raised would be enough for 100,000 $3K drones. Or ten million cheap ones.
Ukraine readies 10,000 drone pilots ahead of counteroffensive: Official
Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said Ukraine has gathered hundreds of millions of dollars in donations to fund its "Drone Army."
www.newsweek.com
According to Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's deputy prime minister and minister for innovation, development of education, science and technology, and its minister of digital transformation.
During the year, we managed to raise $325 million [for the Drone Army]. It is interesting that people support this fundraising from 110 countries around the world.
This is very interesting. We previously heard they used drones to prevent Russia from successfully attacking the Ukrainian bridgehead on the left side of the Dnieper across from the city of Kherson.An armada of 10,000 piloted drones could change the game. The money they raised would be enough for 100,000 $3K drones. Or ten million cheap ones.
petit_bateau
Active Member
I'm not sure how accurate this is :
===========
Signs of
preparing to leave Melitopol:
- passport office closed, equipment moved out, torn passports found.
- mil personnel seen switching to civilian clothing, discarded uniforms found in dumpsters.
- Deadly surprises left: mines attached to trees, ready to cause harm.
More signs of panicking: Massive queues at Chongar & Kalanchak checkpoints on the way to Crimea. Others already waiting for 5+ hours.
Vehicles with special permits & military personnel bypassing the queues. Reports suggest some trucks may carry stolen/looted goods from Ukraine.
===========
Signs of
preparing to leave Melitopol:-
passport office closed, equipment moved out, torn passports found.-
mil personnel seen switching to civilian clothing, discarded uniforms found in dumpsters.- Deadly surprises left: mines attached to trees, ready to cause harm.
More signs of
panicking: Massive queues at Chongar & Kalanchak checkpoints on the way to Crimea. Others already waiting for 5+ hours.Vehicles with special permits & military personnel bypassing the queues. Reports suggest some trucks may carry stolen/looted goods from Ukraine.
Perhaps the world could end this entire invasion by offering every Russian family a washer/dryer/dishwasher/refrigerator. And maybe add a few cases of alcohol per family.I'm not sure how accurate this is :
===========
Signs of
-
-
- Deadly surprises left: mines attached to trees, ready to cause harm.
More signs of
Vehicles with special permits & military personnel bypassing the queues. Reports suggest some trucks may carry stolen/looted goods from Ukraine.
Tiger
Active Member
It's happening:
It was brilliant to leave the name of the operation open so that it can be set at outcome
