This article provides a fuller view of the armaments displayed at the parade. TL;DR, There were only 51 vehicles this year, down from 131 last year, and 197 the year before. No flyover.
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
petit_bateau
Active Member
Interesting movements, though once again not confirmed
Pentagon announces new $1.2 billion security assistance package for Ukraine
The Pentagon announced on May 9 that it has provided an additional $1.2 billion security assistance package to Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).
kyivindependent.com
More air defense as far as I can make out. Anytime we see huge spend it is very expensive missiles or radar etc.
I still contend Wagner pulls troops out of there asap , we will see.
Not totally dry north of bahkmut
Not totally dry north of bahkmut
navguy12
Active Member
Trust but verify…something something something.
Tough to watch, but glad to see how they are saving their fellow soldiers.
British intelligence: over 1.3 mln people left Russia in 2022, among them young and educated professionals from high-earning industries
Apparently nows the time to move to Russia, as between Covid and the Great Patriotic Special Operation™ Russia has lost over 2 million people. Great odds for getting a job refurbing old tanks and meeting recently unattached women.
Apparently nows the time to move to Russia, as between Covid and the Great Patriotic Special Operation™ Russia has lost over 2 million people. Great odds for getting a job refurbing old tanks and meeting recently unattached women.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Allegedly:
Some kind of poison?...
Credit goes to (in Swedish):
cornucopia.se
Some kind of poison?...
Credit goes to (in Swedish):
UPPDATERAS: Gammelsvenskby bombad med fosforbrandbomber, flera skadade, stor förödelse - misslyckat kryssningsrobotangrepp mot Ukraina - Bakhmut håller än
Bryter tågordningen på bloggen idag. Föreningen Svenskbyborna skriver till bloggen att Gammelsvenskby i befriade Chersonregionen har bombats av ryssarna med fosforbrandbomber och det finns flera skadade och det är stor förödelse i byn. Ryssland genomförde också i natt ett större kryssningsrobotangre
cornucopia.se
Allegedly:
Some kind of poison?...
Credit goes to (in Swedish):
UPPDATERAS: Gammelsvenskby bombad med fosforbrandbomber, flera skadade, stor förödelse - misslyckat kryssningsrobotangrepp mot Ukraina - Bakhmut håller än
Bryter tågordningen på bloggen idag. Föreningen Svenskbyborna skriver till bloggen att Gammelsvenskby i befriade Chersonregionen har bombats av ryssarna med fosforbrandbomber och det finns flera skadade och det är stor förödelse i byn. Ryssland genomförde också i natt ett större kryssningsrobotangre
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
It's well known that the high-end optics and the depleted uranium armor are not going to Ukraine. But this isn't a news flash, the US doesn't export that to even their closest allies. Some goodies stay only with Uncle Sam (*cough* F-22 *cough*).
A lot of stories of Russian units bugging out of the south. They are probably moving to Crimea. But it shows a lack of confidence of commanders in the combat effectiveness of the frontline troops who will be facing the Ukrainians.
Pentagon announces new $1.2 billion security assistance package for Ukraine
The Pentagon announced on May 9 that it has provided an additional $1.2 billion security assistance package to Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).
More air defense as far as I can make out. Anytime we see huge spend it is very expensive missiles or radar etc.
Ukraine needs it. Long range AD is not available because NATO doesn't really use it, but there are lots of shorter range systems. Russia has been trying to bleed Ukrainian air defense dry with the missile and drone attacks, but now that they have western AD the Russian strategy will fall flat.
Another thing Ukraine learned from the west. Having good frontline medical care is a big morale boost. Troops know that they will be in good hands if they are hit. When people are putting their lives on the line, they will be more willing to take the risk if they know the country they are fighting for has their back if things go wrong.
Or get a one way ticket to Ukraine.
Allegedly:
Some kind of poison?...
Credit goes to (in Swedish):
UPPDATERAS: Gammelsvenskby bombad med fosforbrandbomber, flera skadade, stor förödelse - misslyckat kryssningsrobotangrepp mot Ukraina - Bakhmut håller än
Bryter tågordningen på bloggen idag. Föreningen Svenskbyborna skriver till bloggen att Gammelsvenskby i befriade Chersonregionen har bombats av ryssarna med fosforbrandbomber och det finns flera skadade och det är stor förödelse i byn. Ryssland genomförde också i natt ett större kryssningsrobotangre
I don't think Putin would want to kill Lukashenko. When Lukashenko dies Belarus will likely have their own color revolution to leave the Russian sphere of influence. A large percentage of the Belorussian people are on Ukraine's side.
The only reason I could think of for Putin to do away with Lukashenko would be a direct Russian take over of the country and then ordering the Belorussian army into the fight, but I think that would backfire. Belarus would likely rebel and Russia would be trying to put down an insurgency campaign at the same time they were fighting Ukraine. NATO might help out the poor Belorussians with some arms to keep the fight going.
There were a few other tanks in the parade, but fewer than usual. Russia's shortage of combat equipment is showing.
That's standard practice on the export version of the Abrams. Several countries operate them now including Egypt and Iraq. In other words the big headline here is: Ukraine's Abrams to Get Standard Export Package.
That's a dog bites man story.
Many were predicting that the Ukrainian offensive would start on May 9, but I didn't think that would happen. Too predictable. It will be coming soon, but Ukraine is trying to be as unpredictable as possible.
There is also a lot of talk that there will be no lightning offensives like Kharkhiv. It is possible the Ukrainians may move slowly. The terrain in the south is flat with little cover, much like Kherson oblast. But the terrain is good tank country.
What Ukraine does have in its western trained and equipped brigades is the capability to take out fortifications and move fast. These troops have been equipped with vehicles designed for fast exploitation of a breakthrough. Ukraine has also been trained in western exploitation tactics. Since 2014 western trainers have built up an NCO corps in Ukraine and trained them to act independently. That is critical for good exploitation. If the low level commander knows what the goal is and is left to their own devices to achieve the goal, they will be more effective than if they have to defer to higher command for everything.
Germany pioneered this kind of low level commanding when they rebuilt their military in the 1930s. It made their force very flexible and effective, even when outnumbered. Western democracies had some degree of it already, but expanded it based on German successes. It's been NATO doctrine from the beginning and is also the doctrine of many US allies now. Ukraine took to it like ducks to water.
Ukraine has the right force to move quickly. If the situation opens up, Ukraine will take advantage and roll up Russian forces.
The key is how well manned the Russian defenses are. We know from reconnaissance that the Russians have built a lot of trenches and probably put in a lot of minefields. There is also evidence that the Russians have left booby traps behind as they have pulled out. But unmanned defenses are little more than nuisances for an army equipped to deal with them. The Ukrainians have a lot of mine clearing equipment and a lot of tools for dealing with trenches.
If the Russians were able to properly man those trenches and put up a fight, that would slow down the Ukrainians quite a bit. But I don't see evidence of that. Russia may have about 200K personnel left, but probably less than half are front line troops. One area that has had few losses is air defense. Those units are mostly intact. Russia has been turning artillery units into infantry because they are running out of guns and/or ammunition. But people trained in artillery are not going to make very good infantry. It is a sign that their forces are imbalanced with too many behind the lines and too few on the front.
Russia's tank crew losses have been severe too. They have lost a lot of tanks, but they also lost most of the crews with them. Those crews are irreplaceable now. All the trainers who used to train tank crews got sent to Ukraine leaving them with nobody to train new crews. Their tank drivers are still learning how to drive the tank, their gunners have no experience firing rounds, and their commanders don't know what they're doing. Not only are they having to press ancient tanks with no upgrades into combat, they are putting untrained crews in them hoping for a miracle. A lot of those crews are going to get killed without firing a shot.
Russia may have more live bodies in Ukraine than they did just after the invasion, but the equipment they are using is badly degraded from what they had a year ago, their training is far worse than what they had a year ago, and they are up against a force that is 6 times bigger than it was in February 2022 and better equipped.
Both sides have been learning lessons and adapting, though Ukraine is doing a much better job there too. For every lesson Russia figures out and makes adaptations, Ukraine is making at least two adaptations, possibly more.
Russia is playing defense and is well dug in. Those are advantages. But they are about the only advantages Russia has. Everything else favors Ukraine.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I've never understood the point of prognostications that start with 'possible.' Tell me something I don't know a priori
Scorecard on who delivered what weapons to date. News to me is the actual volume of helicopters delivered- Impressive. Western tank deliveries are slow and small in number. Lots wont' show up til this summer. IFV (basically heavy armored personnel carriers) are in better shape with the bradleys having been delivered but it seems sweden has not yet delivered the cv90s. Those are fantastic machines so they will be missed. Hopefully they arrive with the abrams for continued progress in the summer. Hundreds of MRAPS (mine resistant off road trucks for carrying infantry) mostly delivered. Over 1800 Hummers (offroad jeep/trucks with optional gun mounts). Some 140 self propelled anti air gun systems but most still getting fixed up- I had no idea so many.
Anyway interesting stuff hope so of you find it useful.
I did think Ukraine would do something today, it fits the bill. it's what they have done in the past. However, it has stayed muddy in northern Ukraine and Ukraine has been very willing to wait to let the battlefield be shaped and to practice deception.
it would have been a giant f you to Russia so yeah...I thought they'd wind it up today. Can you imagine being a russian field officer in some 3rd line bunker just waiting to see a hail of fire pouring down on you.
I was saying that to acknowledge that the people saying Ukraine is going to go slow might be right, but I don't think they will if they get a chance to break out and move quickly. They have the force to do it and Russia may not be capable of stopping them from doing it.
Scorecard on who delivered what weapons to date. News to me is the actual volume of helicopters delivered- Impressive. Western tank deliveries are slow and small in number. Lots wont' show up til this summer. IFV (basically heavy armored personnel carriers) are in better shape with the bradleys having been delivered but it seems sweden has not yet delivered the cv90s. Those are fantastic machines so they will be missed. Hopefully they arrive with the abrams for continued progress in the summer. Hundreds of MRAPS (mine resistant off road trucks for carrying infantry) mostly delivered. Over 1800 Hummers (offroad jeep/trucks with optional gun mounts). Some 140 self propelled anti air gun systems but most still getting fixed up- I had no idea so many.
Anyway interesting stuff hope so of you find it useful.
Perun had an interesting point in his last video. He pointed out that while it might be disappointing that Ukraine has not gotten everything promised yet, the fact that a lot of material is in in the pipe line gives them the leeway to take some risks. If they make a big play and take some heavy losses, more equipment will be coming this summer.
The MRAPs and other American armored car type vehicles are surplus and in good condition, so it was a no brainer to give them to Ukraine. The US built a lot of them for Iraq and Afghanistan and now that those fights are over, the US doesn't want them anymore. They make excellent on road APCs with some off road capability. Most aren't all that heavily armed, but they can deal with infantry and they do have some decent armor, especially against mines. They are designed to survive IED attacks.
BitJam
Active Member
There was a small counter-attack today near Bakhmut using Bradley Fighting Vehicles, perhaps for the first time.
Edit: Here is another report about the same counter-attack:
Thanks for putting some salve on my ego
