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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
On one hand it would seem irresponsible for Zelenskyi and top officials to ostensibly telegraph when they would move troops forward in earnest. Certainly, perhaps even most likely, this could be a bluff to confuse the Russsian defense, cause them to panic, reveal positions, etc.. But it could also be a strategy of bluff, bluff, bluff, then not actually kidding kind of move, keeping the enemy always guessing.
BitJam
Active Member
Beau had a good video a couple of days ago about the inscrutability of the start date.
Russia has target fixation. They are going all in to take out the Patriot systems. It's forcing Ukraine to expend a lot of Patriots, but the Russians are burning up a lot of missiles trying to destroy the Patriots.
My partner thinks it will be June 6. It's a date that has a lot of meaning to Ukraine's allies in the west, but means a lot less in Eastern Europe. For Russians a more important date from 1944 would be June 22. That was the start of Operation Bagration, which was a huge operation that shattered over 40 divisions of the German army.
Ukrainian capabilities continue to improve - Capital City drone exchange action appears to be going on. Multiple reports that drones have hit several buildings in Moscow (not independently verified yet).
Russia-Ukraine war live: Moscow buildings hit by drones, says mayor; one dead in third attack on Kyiv in 24 hours
Drones hit several buildings in Moscow causing “minor” damage and no serious injuries, the mayor of the Russian capital said early on Tuesday...Several of Russia’s Telegram messaging channels reported that four to 10 drones were shot early on Tuesday, Reuters reports...)
Russia-Ukraine war live: Moscow buildings hit by drones, says mayor; one dead in third attack on Kyiv in 24 hours
Looks like the Russians got chewed up at Vuhledar over the last few weeks
Russia is letting politics override strategy.
Russia is letting politics override strategy.
BitJam
Active Member
Oh my goodness! This war and these attacks on civilians can't end soon enough for me (yes, some of the targets were military). Thank goodness the Ukrainian air defense works so well. I'm glad the US was able to help out. Same for the Europeans. Thank you! I heard one unconfirmed report that the French SAMP-T air defense system shot down all the Iskander ballistic missiles in the latest attack.
Yet again I'm reminded of the fable of the North Wind and the Sun. Or the classic line from Star Wars: the more you tighten your grip, the more star systems will slip through your fingers. I'm sorry if I'm getting too repetitive but it's hard for me fathom why Putin does not get that these attacks merely strengthen the resolve of the Ukrainians and their Western allies.
He understands we want the attacks to end but he does not grasp that the way we want them to end is with a stunning defeat of the Russians so they can't come back and do this again. For most of this war I thought Putin was acting rationally. Misguided, but rational. Now I'm having doubts. I guess he still thinks there's a chance for Russia to prevail on the battlefield. I feel strongly that the more he shows us he has no concern for innocent human life, the more important it is to oust him from power.
IMO it was very unfortunate that some prominent Americans gave Putin hope that if he acts crazy enough then the West will capitulate. Their encouragement might be the only reason why Putin continues waging a war he cannot win. I am sick and tired of his Wild and Crazy Guy act.
Yet again I'm reminded of the fable of the North Wind and the Sun. Or the classic line from Star Wars: the more you tighten your grip, the more star systems will slip through your fingers. I'm sorry if I'm getting too repetitive but it's hard for me fathom why Putin does not get that these attacks merely strengthen the resolve of the Ukrainians and their Western allies.
He understands we want the attacks to end but he does not grasp that the way we want them to end is with a stunning defeat of the Russians so they can't come back and do this again. For most of this war I thought Putin was acting rationally. Misguided, but rational. Now I'm having doubts. I guess he still thinks there's a chance for Russia to prevail on the battlefield. I feel strongly that the more he shows us he has no concern for innocent human life, the more important it is to oust him from power.
IMO it was very unfortunate that some prominent Americans gave Putin hope that if he acts crazy enough then the West will capitulate. Their encouragement might be the only reason why Putin continues waging a war he cannot win. I am sick and tired of his Wild and Crazy Guy act.
This battle was in mid February and was one of the highlights of the russian winter offensive. Nothing new but always interesting to see someone try to dissect it.
WSJ video on the same battles
Recently we have also seen a rapid decline in russian armor losses, artillery losses soared last week but have ramped down now as well.
Lots of shaping. Ground is dry. Probably the biggest holdup right now is making sure sufficient resources are trained and equipped to exploit the effects of the initial feints and attacks and to destroy identified reserves and command centers. For this reason I'd keep eyes on the actual delivery of the 30 abrams and the swedish IFVs. I expect the 100 lepord 1s to be delivered over the late fall/winter and will form the backbone of 3 brigades or used to rearm brigades in the field due to losses. Either way I don't expect Ukraine to make the same mistake they did last year when they counteroffensive in Kharkiv ran short due to exhaustion/lack of units/lack of supplies. My point here is that tank reserves will be limited and they will have very scarce resources available after regrouping. So they may wait until they are sure that the abrams timing will support a second push without leaving russia time to establish defensive lines.
It is one more reason (in addition to mud) why the attacks was never going to happen in April with late may/early june being more likely and late June still being a possibility. If the Abrams are not available til September than you don't really want too big a gap between then and the attacks. I could see July even being a possible start date. Weighing against this is the need to attack before air defense assets are so depleted that Russian air resources can make an impact. Perhaps the west has committed sufficient air defense assets to down the missiles- clearly russia is aiming for patriots and that alone is helpful to ukraine. The "war in ukraine" video bitjam shared (that's a decent daily video!) showed just how many assets they used to attempt to breach Kiev's defenses and hit a patriot.
Lots of shaping. Ground is dry. Probably the biggest holdup right now is making sure sufficient resources are trained and equipped to exploit the effects of the initial feints and attacks and to destroy identified reserves and command centers. For this reason I'd keep eyes on the actual delivery of the 30 abrams and the swedish IFVs. I expect the 100 lepord 1s to be delivered over the late fall/winter and will form the backbone of 3 brigades or used to rearm brigades in the field due to losses. Either way I don't expect Ukraine to make the same mistake they did last year when they counteroffensive in Kharkiv ran short due to exhaustion/lack of units/lack of supplies. My point here is that tank reserves will be limited and they will have very scarce resources available after regrouping. So they may wait until they are sure that the abrams timing will support a second push without leaving russia time to establish defensive lines.
It is one more reason (in addition to mud) why the attacks was never going to happen in April with late may/early june being more likely and late June still being a possibility. If the Abrams are not available til September than you don't really want too big a gap between then and the attacks. I could see July even being a possible start date. Weighing against this is the need to attack before air defense assets are so depleted that Russian air resources can make an impact. Perhaps the west has committed sufficient air defense assets to down the missiles- clearly russia is aiming for patriots and that alone is helpful to ukraine. The "war in ukraine" video bitjam shared (that's a decent daily video!) showed just how many assets they used to attempt to breach Kiev's defenses and hit a patriot.
Biden Is More Fearful Than the Ukrainians Are
The U.S. president has promised Ukraine “whatever it takes, as long as it takes.” But out of anxiety about escalation, Washington is making decisions that could prolong the war.
www.theatlantic.com
Another great piece from the Atlantic.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
"acting rationally" from his own one-man perspective in that case.
Seems to me he has put himself in a corner. Does he have any alternative if he wants to come out of this alive? Seems to me that his only option here is to keep going until somebody or some group of people stops him.
It's beyond words horrific. But unfortunately – here we are. It is what it is.
Putin underplaying drone attacks. Not exactly what you say after a false flag.
Russia has just spread themselves too thin. These drone attacks, the attacks in Belogorod and along the border, constant pressure on Bakhmut, the Himars and now Storm Shadow attacks behind lines.
The "Spring Offensive" has already started. It's just starting with a series of irresistible diversionary attacks. It's like a big pack of wolves nipping at the herd of elk from all sides. The herd can only protect the weak and young for so long before there is an opening and the wolves get to eat.
Russia has just spread themselves too thin. These drone attacks, the attacks in Belogorod and along the border, constant pressure on Bakhmut, the Himars and now Storm Shadow attacks behind lines.
The "Spring Offensive" has already started. It's just starting with a series of irresistible diversionary attacks. It's like a big pack of wolves nipping at the herd of elk from all sides. The herd can only protect the weak and young for so long before there is an opening and the wolves get to eat.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
One other thought. A lot of people eyeballing Melitopol. That's where the bulk of the Russian defenses are set up. Ukraine has been talking a lot about Crimea being the goal. But I'm not sure it needs to be there. If Ukraine cuts the land bridge between Melitipol and Russia, then all the supplies going to Crimea and Melitipol must go over the Kerch Bridge and a series of very vulnerable rail connections.
Any deep incursion that cuts the direct rail line between Russia and Melitipol will starve their defenders of munitions. This is why Vuhledar is so critical. Capturing Meriupol would be a tremendous symbolic victory and would cut off the Russian supply lines.
Any deep incursion that cuts the direct rail line between Russia and Melitipol will starve their defenders of munitions. This is why Vuhledar is so critical. Capturing Meriupol would be a tremendous symbolic victory and would cut off the Russian supply lines.
BitJam
Active Member
Agreed. The way to capture Crimea is to cut the land bridge. This is similar to how Ukraine captured Kherson north the of Dnieper. They cut supply lines across the Dnieper after Russia amassed troops there. Those troops ran out of supplies and had to retreat.
IMHO if the land bridge is cut then it's game over.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Weird... Can't find a link to an English version of the article in Deutsche Welle linked below...
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Immediately went to look up highway landings/takeoff, for Eurofighter and it seemed UK considered it, so not out of the realm of possibility:
RAF considering operating jets from motorways
Russia Threat Could See U.K. Fighter Jets Operating From Highways Once Again
Ukraine's defense minister has said they need about 100 western fighter jets, preferably the bulk of which will be F-16s. He also mentioned that the Eurofighter and Gripen would be welcome additions. Moscow is clearly quite bothered by the looming prospect of an F-16 armed Ukrainian air force.
www-newsweek-com.cdn.ampproject.org
Ukraine puts number on F-16s after German Leopard tank success
Several countries, including the U.S., have committed to training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets.
www-newsweek-com.cdn.ampproject.org
Putin does hope that new regimes in western countries will see a drop in interest in the war and a drop in support for Ukraine, but the elections in major Ukrainian partners are still over a year away.
In a dictatorship (and among wanna be dictators), how strong the country looks is far more important than the actual situation and they always assume that everyone else is the same way. Moscow had their yearly parade of military might and while western sources were able to see that systems like the T-14 Armata was vaporware because it's never gone into production, most western analysts were fooled about how deep the rot was in the Russian military. It was a house that looked respectable from the street, but was a hovel ready to be condemned inside.
Putin is still trying to keep up appearances. Destroying much vaunted western equipment or capturing a small city like Bakhmut are things he can brag about. Because everything in the Russian system is top down with no arguments, Putin says jump and everyone asks which story they should jump from.
Things like the stupid losses in the tank battle at Vulhedar come from this. The top says take the city at all costs, and everyone down the line gets variations on that order. The style of command in western countries and Ukraine is that orders for objectives come from the top, but how that objective is going to be taken is heavily dependent on the local commanders and messages about impossibility may not be appreciated on up the chain from the bottom, but they will be heard.
Russia has no NCO corps so they have nobody reliable at low levels to trust with tactical decisions, so all the tactical decisions are made high up the chain of command and everybody below just follows orders. Even if they are stupid orders that lead to defeat, people rarely get in trouble for following orders, so they blindly do what they are told.
The video was less than a day old, but I was wondering why nobody else was talking about it. This makes more sense. It's still a great example of the broken command structure in the Russian army. Instead of "take that town" the orders from the top are "take this town doing this and don't tell me it's suicide".
Russian command has been gutted. Russia's officer corps has taken heavy losses so people who were green lieutenants a year ago are now commanding brigades or larger and the lieutenants were cadets at the academy or civilians a year ago. Many intercepted phone calls people talk about how there are very few officers in frontline units. And any officer who survived the first year of the war is up the chain of command now filling the shoes of a dead senior commander.
Few people have talked about how the losses in Russia's officer corp has contributed to the war, but high losses among officers in an army like Russia's would be catastrophic. Russia is very top down and lose the top and/or middle and the efficiency of the army is going to drop significantly. Western armies are built to handle middle officer losses and keep going. In WW II often officers in units in heavy combat would have junior officers filling the job of a captain or major, but the unit was still effective because everyone below him knew their job and kept things running. Russia has never had that depth of command.
Russia may be hiding their artillery better. Or they may be running out of artillery near the front lines.
One thing I saw a few months ago is that while people are wringing their hands about western equipment that has been promised but not delivered, the fact that such equipment is in the pipeline gives Ukraine some logistical depth. They can afford to risk some equipment in the coming offensive because they know that more equipment is coming to replace losses. That's a big deal in the long run.
Biden Is More Fearful Than the Ukrainians Are
The U.S. president has promised Ukraine “whatever it takes, as long as it takes.” But out of anxiety about escalation, Washington is making decisions that could prolong the war.
Another great piece from the Atlantic.
Biden may be being too cautious for a reason. Zelensky's responsibility is Ukraine only and his situational awareness is very good immediately around Ukraine, but what's happening on the other side of the world is only peripheral knowledge if it doesn't directly pertain to the war.
Biden's area of the responsibility is what's going on across the globe. His primary responsibility is the interests of the US, but as the dominant world power his responsibilities also include the areas of interest of all US allies and the conditions in all the world's oceans. He has to take into consideration threats from countries that, while not full allies of Russia, are in Russia's corner to some extent. Namely China and to some extent India. China has not voiced much publicly, but apparently they have been talking to many world leaders privately.
An escalation of the war that Biden has been trying to avoid would be China more heavily supporting Russia. China could send a lot of equipment to Russia if it chose. China has been modernizing its military and has a lot of old equipment that is Soviet calibers that is going out of service anyway. China has been holding back because they don't want to get into a trade war with the west, but they also don't want to see certain weapons in Ukrainian hands.
We know it was China that got the early MiG-29 deal squashed.
I agree. The further east Ukraine goes to cut the land bridge, the worse problem it creates for Russia. Russia is struggling to keep the south supplied now. Cut the land bridge to the east and that switches more territory to be supplied exclusively via anything they can get into Crimea. Plus it makes the supply route longer.
The ideal would be to attack Luhansk from the north and roll of the Donbas all the way to the Azoz. It would be a longer slog, but that would kill two birds with one stone. It would end the 9 year old war in the Donbas for good and put Russian supply to the rest of Ukraine in trouble.
Taking out the Kerch Bridge would not be a complete end to supplying their army, but it would put them in a lot of trouble. Without the Kerch Bridge and the ferry across the Kerch Strait (which resumed operation while the bridge was out of service), they would have to supply Crimea with the navy into southern Crimean ports.
While that would move some supply, it would be inefficient. The rail network in Crimea is set up to move stuff from the Kerch Strait to other points. They would be injecting supply at the end of one of those arteries instead of at the heart of it, and there is only so much supply the navy can move. Russia landing ships combined with any civilian ships they can press into service will need to make the run.
The Kerch Ferry is something like a 20 minute ride, probably about an hour round trip if they hustle offloading. The route from Southern Russia to southern Crimea will be a full day round trip if they are lucky. Could be closer to a day and a half. That alone is a vast slow down in supply making it to Crimea. The ports will be in storm shadow range and will be attacked. Russia will likely lose some ships, either through just being damaged or sunk. Sink a ship with heavy damage at a pier and that pier will be out of operation for a while. Hit an ammunition ship that's loaded and the pier will be out for the war.
Ben Hodges thinks there is the possibility that Russia's troops could just cut and run when the offensive starts. Between the troops having minimal training, poor morale, and the lack of commanders at the battlefield level, I think there is a good chance of this happening.
Russia does have some more competent units that were supposed to be held in reserve for the offensive. These units were to move into gaps to plug holes in the line created by the Ukrainian assault. But then Russia went and threw these units into Bakhmut. The Ukrainians then got aggressive at Bakhmut to keep these units engaged and tied down there.
The bulk of the Russian army at this point are poorly trained mobiks with virtually no leadership. That's almost certainly who is manning the trenches in the south. There are enforcers behind the lines keeping them there, but the enforcers aren't going to hang around if there is a chance they will be overrun in a Ukrainian breakout.
