On some prior Pro-Putin tweets from David Sacks, he posted a link to 'responsiblestatecraft', which is apparently where libertarians go to get their bad ideas. It appears that Sacks fancies himself to be a bit of a stateman, and suggests that he and his cronies are the only people who
really understand what is going on.
Pressure is mounting to make some sort of formal declaration over Ukraine's membership at meetings in Vilnius next month.
responsiblestatecraft.org
He gives great weight to analysis by Mearsheimer, which was an interesting counterpoint, but I really think these guys are missing the forest for the trees.
At the risk of being foolish myself, I'll make an observation that I have not seen reported or suggested anywhere.
Kissinger has always espoused his idea of
Realpolitik, and Mearsheimer has the same idea with his 'great-power politics' idea that apparently our Masters of the Universe Musk and Sacks also subscribe too. Sacks for sure, he quotes Mearsheimer verbatim. And Elon does his vacuous "Well said" for anything Sacks posts.
These guys are not idiots, but my observation is that Realpolitik/great-power-politics has a fundamental flaw that makes it mostly useless. The flaw is in the assumption that they have complete information about a situation.
IF they had full information, maybe they'd have a point, but I'd observe that anything as complex as international relations and war has to be in the chaos theory realm, not actually predictable. These guys are completely arrogant and think they know everything, and don't have enough humility to admit that no one can know enough to accurately predict this sort of thing.
Please allow me my observational point- before the war,
everyone, and I mean everyone, thought that Russia was going to roll Ukraine in 3 days, 1 week tops. Everyone in US intelligence, CIA reports, retired generals, Sacks, Elon, Mearsheimer all had this idea that Russia was
vastly more powerful than Ukraine and that they didn't stand a chance.
Well? What happened then? Any chance of learning anything new from our self-appointed masters-of-the-universe? How can these people be so completely, 100% wrong, and
still insist that the 'realistic' path is just give in to Russian demands?
How can these people
continue to support Russian goals after seeing the atrocities at Bucha? The deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure including hospitals and housing complexes? Destroying the Kakhovka dam to deliberately create a catastrophe? This is not a professional army where you can be a 'realist', this is a fight against the Mongol Hordes. These people are barbarians.