I think it will be a long time before the average Russian will realize that they can vote as they wish and not be censored for it. Heck, in Texas, voting the "wrong way" gets you far more instances of jury duty than if you vote the "right way".
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Some interesting reads, no paywalls.
(I think I heard on BBC radio 4 this morning an interview with a Ukraine Leopard tankman. If I heard correctly his tank was knocked out by mines despite having mine clearance rollers. He said the rollers can take four mine explosions, but the Russians are laying the mines in much larger clusters. In his case the sixth mine got them. That fits with video a week ago of a Leo that was disabled by mines - you could literally count half a dozen mines within a couple of metres of the front of the right track as the crew were working around it, jumping over the anti-tank mines. The Russians aren't stupid, they concentrated on laying mines rather than barbed wire for a reason. Let's hope that Ukraine can break through with the current infantry tactics before the Russians are able to lay both.)
Ukraine steps up counteroffensive with new push south and around Bakhmut
Ukrainian official says every type of weapon in use, including US cluster munitions, as troops push forwardwww.theguardian.com
Military briefing: Ukraine switches to artillery power for eastern push
After heavy losses in early counteroffensive, Kyiv changed tactics to pound Russian defences and clear path for infantrywww.ft.com
US begins sharing Russian war-crimes evidence with Hague court
Quiet decision ends dispute within Biden administration over ICC cooperation after Pentagon had been accused of obstruction
One of the most effective anti-mine weapon is the M58 MICLIC.
M58 MICLIC - Wikipedia
I know the US gave some to Ukraine, but they probably don't have enough. Nobody ever anticipated encountering mine fields this large or this dense.
The MICLIC also operates best in an environment where it isn't going to encounter enemy artillery or enemy air power. The Ukrainians have done a pretty good job taking out artillery to a point some Russian mil bloggers are getting worried Russia is going to run out of gun tubes. But Russian air is still out there. Hopefully the Ukrainian MICLICs have some friendly AD systems covering them.
One of the lessons of this war is in the modern battlefield environment it's very difficult to take ground when you don't have air superiority. Except for Russia's sprint in the opening days of the war and the Ukrainian break out last September, this war has been very slow slog on all fronts.
Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 26 and appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv. Russian sources, including thewww.understandingwar.org
The ISW jumps onto the claim that Ukraine is attacking in mass but then qualifies it. So far I have not seen the sort of postings from Russia to suggest a deep breakthrough but I've been working getting ready for our main harvesting season next month. Whether it is south of Bahkmut or towards Marioupl the UAF seems to be making slightly deeper penetrations into russian lines and russia is struggling with their (to date) effective method of responding immediately with counteroffensives to quickly take back lost ground.
Perhaps UAF can achieve a real breakthrough in a few days in the south and breach the heavily mined and manned front positions.
We'll see what happens once Ukraine breaches the first line of defense completely. I've seen a lot of evidence that instead of holding back reserves, the Russians pumped everyone into the front line and once the Ukrainians are past them, it could be clear running.
My partner was reading something Dmitri posted from a Russian officer in Donesk. He said the Russians moved a huge number of troops into the region, but instead of setting up a layered defense and rotating troops in and out of the front line so they could rest and refit (which the Ukrainians do), they just threw everyone into the first trenchline which overfilled the trenches and led to a lot of casualties. Especially now that the Ukrainians are using more cluster munitions.
I haven't read anything specific that they were doing anything similar in the south, but the Ukrainians were encountering a lot of forces that I would think would be held in reserve when conducting a defensive operation.
I think Putin issues a stand fast order, which is an order to not give up an inch of territory. It forces commanders to feed all their reserves into trying to hold a position that becomes more and more tenuous. When such an order is given, an army will hold the position unusually well for a while, but when the dam breaks, the enemy is off to the races until the next line of defense can be organized. If the enemy is moving too fast, prepared, but unmanned defensive lines may be of little use because those get overrun before the troops can fill them.
Hitler did stand fast orders in a few places in late 1944 and early 1945, it resulted in heavy casualties for the Germans and, of course, didn't prevent the final outcome. If the Germans had instead traded some territory for time, they may have been able to set up defensive lines in more tenable locations and slow down the Red Army a bit more. It may have delayed the final outcome by a month or two. If the Allies didn't have the agreement to stop at the Elbe River the western Allies may have made it to Berlin first and the borders for the Cold War may have looked different.
How do they know how you voted in Texas? If some people are getting more jury duty due to their voting habits it might have more to do with what party they belong to. In Russia they don't actually count the votes. They hold elections, then announce vote results that were pre-planned, so nobody is going to look at a person's ballot.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Yeah, working through belts of mines that span 1000m is hard. Using a linecharge thrower for the first 100m just wakes up the other side for the next 900m. It is a tricky issue as that effectively neutralises armoured vehicles. Absent ar cover, air dominance, and helicopters it seems logical Ukraine has to do it on foot for now.
Ukraine artillery is frequently ranging 30km deep, so behind the third line of Russian fortifications in the areas where they have three. But so far Ukraine is not even through the first line/belt, and the purpose of the successive ones is to prevent an easy breakout and fix the attacker to suffer artillery. At least that is the Russian doctrine and this aspect of it seems to be effective based on what we have observed so far.
I thought it was interesting that the SAM that took out the Ka52 was a medium range SAM, not a MANPAD. This suggests that Ukraine are now confident enough to push some of their SAMs up as far forwards as the 155mm artillery. Whether that is a one-off or representative of a pattern is not clear.
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This may interest some. I've just looked at fragments of it, but he is definitely not completely stupid.
Russian Defense Minister meets with North Korean Tele Tubby dictator to discuss the size of their missiles.
North Korea’s Kim shows off banned missiles to Russian minister
North Korea’s Kim shows off banned missiles to Russian minister
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
"
Ukraine could have F-16s sooner than people think
by Joel Gehrke, Foreign Affairs Reporter | July 23, 2023 03:00 AMNATO allies are scrambling to arrange the training and transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, according to U.S. and European officials, raising the prospect that the U.S.-made fighter jets could enter the war sooner than some would think.
“I hope [during] autumn, I’m quite hopeful,” a senior European official told the Washington Examiner. “Some European states ... have already reserved [an] impressive amount of F-16s for Ukrainians.”
"
Ukraine could have F-16s sooner than people think - Washington Examiner
NATO allies are scrambling to arrange the training and transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, according to U.S. and European officials, raising the prospect that the U.S.-made fighter jets could enter the war sooner than some would think.“I hope [during] autumn, I’m quite hopeful,” a senior...
www.washingtonexaminer.com
BitJam
Active Member
"
Ukraine could have F-16s sooner than people think
by Joel Gehrke, Foreign Affairs Reporter | July 23, 2023 03:00 AM
NATO allies are scrambling to arrange the training and transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, according to U.S. and European officials, raising the prospect that the U.S.-made fighter jets could enter the war sooner than some would think.
“I hope [during] autumn, I’m quite hopeful,” a senior European official told the Washington Examiner. “Some European states ... have already reserved [an] impressive amount of F-16s for Ukrainians.”
"
Ukraine could have F-16s sooner than people think - Washington Examiner
NATO allies are scrambling to arrange the training and transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, according to U.S. and European officials, raising the prospect that the U.S.-made fighter jets could enter the war sooner than some would think.“I hope [during] autumn, I’m quite hopeful,” a senior...
When does Ukraine need weapon X? Okay, lets try to get it to them a few months after that.
petit_bateau
Active Member
I don't think anybody ever anticipated having to deal with a minefield 1000 m deep. One of the things that happens in war, the enemy always does things you never expected.
Ukraine has been getting a lot of mid-ranged AD systems from NATO countries. With the missile attacks on they have held back a lot of their AD to protect cities, but possibly now the major cities are protected well enough they can spare more AD for the frontline.
There are engineering tools given to the Ukrainians to deal with those anti-tank ditches. Looks like someone got out ahead to the engineers.
The Ukrainians just pile ammunition on the ground. In NATO every gun has a set of tarps to put down to keep artillery shells clean. By keeping the shells clean, less dirt gets into the gun and it lasts longer.
I'll reserve what I think of this privately. I'd love to be a fly on the wall during these talks...
www.express.co.uk
US officials 'held talks with Kremlin’ in 'betrayal of Ukraine'
A former US official claimed he has "been visiting Moscow at least every three months" to secretly meet high-ranking Moscow officials behind Kyiv's back, according to a new report.
www.express.co.uk
I've seen a suggestion that driving the tank into the ditch was a test.
More interesting was there didn't seem to be mines or Russian troops in the area, or the Russian troops were quite happy to watch the tank drive into the ditch, and not intervene.
Since the video recording comes from the Russians, they know Ukraine was probing defences in that area.
If the Ukrainian troops can reach the ditch, that perhaps provides them with a trench that they can occupy?
If they can occupy the ditch, then they can eventually retrieve the tank. Any other tracked vehicles, know a safe route to follow.
Even if this is a stuff up, it is low down the list of wartime stuff ups.
Zero tank experience here, but I’ve run enough machinery to know that with an experienced operator even a smallish dozer blade on a large tracked vehicle can, with a little persistence, be used to fill even a large ditch enough for a huge tracked vehicle to get through. All at minimal expense compared to losing a tank.
In any case, I sure hope we don’t see too many more “tests” like that - on Ukraine’s side at least.
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Buckminster
Well-Known Member
ABRAMS from Sep. Will they withstand mines better?
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I'll reserve what I think of this privately. I'd love to be a fly on the wall during these talks...
US officials 'held talks with Kremlin’ in 'betrayal of Ukraine'
A former US official claimed he has "been visiting Moscow at least every three months" to secretly meet high-ranking Moscow officials behind Kyiv's back, according to a new report.
I would be those "talks" are basically reminders to the Kremlin of certain lines not to cross. If crossed, they would immediately result in US direct involvement, not just weapons sales.
Believe it or not, keeping the lines of communication open like this, I view as a good thing.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I'll reserve what I think of this privately. I'd love to be a fly on the wall during these talks...
US officials 'held talks with Kremlin’ in 'betrayal of Ukraine'
A former US official claimed he has "been visiting Moscow at least every three months" to secretly meet high-ranking Moscow officials behind Kyiv's back, according to a new report.
Note nowhere in the article does it say those officials are part of the current White House or even collaborated with the White House (it seems like they edited the title, the original was far more misleading). In fact it says the White House completely denies any involvement in such talks. Seems like it's some unrelated academics/think tanks. Sure, they might be able to bring back some useful information on what Russians might be thinking, but it also creates doubt in the US's commitment to Ukraine and an image of leaving them out of the conversation (a long running issue since the failed Minsk agreements).
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Another nice video from War In Ukraine until it degenerates into a spammy ad for an art investment scam or something.
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petit_bateau
Active Member
Apprently it was remote controlled, the aim being to identify what/who shoots back and from where (as well as getting one set of tracks across a potentially mined area).
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Some indications that Ukraine is making more progress, but evidence is weak. They do appear to be making progress at three or more places in the south, plus nibbling at Antonovski, plus at Bhakmut, plus holding in the north. That means Russia cannot focus defensive efforts to any greater effect.
One comment that this brings the front line within HIMARs range of the coast road, if Ukraine were to risk a HIMARS launcher that far forwards.
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I'll reserve what I think of this privately. I'd love to be a fly on the wall during these talks...
US officials 'held talks with Kremlin’ in 'betrayal of Ukraine'
A former US official claimed he has "been visiting Moscow at least every three months" to secretly meet high-ranking Moscow officials behind Kyiv's back, according to a new report.
This appears to be a retread of the story that was posted here about a month ago. This article says the story was originally published by NBC news. The earlier story identified who the people were doing the back channel with Russia. All officials from past administrations. I believe somebody from the Clinton administration and a couple from the GW Bush administration. It was unauthorized and I believe the Biden administration shut it down when they found out about it.
Someone also posted a picture of a BMP stuck in a trench speculating that it might be the same vehicle. If it was remote controlled it may have been a BMP that still ran but was not combat worthy (broken armament) and was spent in a probe of the Russian defenses.
The Royal Engineers developed a number of specialty engineering vehicles in WW II that were called AVREs (Armoured Vehicle Royal Engineers) and sometimes nicknamed "funnies". Among them was a tank to deal with trenches and the concept is still used today. Back then they used a large bundle of sticks, but usually it's pipe now, but this bundle is perched on top of a tank with a release mechanism inside the tank. They drive up to the trench, release the bundle which falls into the trench and they can then drive over it.
Here is a listing for a model of one of these tanks from WW II
Home :: 1/48th scale :: British Churchill Mk. IV AVRE w/ fascine
Another method is to drop a bridge across it
Churchill AVRE with Small Box Girder
The Ukrainians have been given modern equivalents to these vehicles.
Dozers have been used too when there was enough loose dirt to push into the trench. If the trench was made right, there will be no loose dirt to scoop up and dump in the trench.
In short: no.
The weakness in all tanks is the tracks. Wheeled armored vehicles are still a thing because wheels are much simpler than any kind of track. Some light tracked vehicles have a rubber band type track, but most have a track made up of steel elements held together with pins. Running over a mine is going to blow the track apart and possible damage one or more wheels. Repairing the tank is relatively easy once a repair crew can get there with spare parts or it can be towed off the battlefield, but in the heat of battle that can't be done.
Many times tanks carry spare pieces of tread into combat mounted on the chassis or turret of the tank to make repairs in the field easier when a piece of track breaks. This was very common on WW II era tanks, but you don't see it as often today. I'm not sure why, track may be a little tougher now (material science has progressed), but track is till fragile.
SwedishAdvocate
Active Member
Allegedly:
"Russian Deputy Vitaly Milonov proposes to introduce forced insemination for unmarried women over 24 years old. “Until the age of 24, they danced at discos, it’s time to take care of the state,” the deputy explained"
From:
"Russian Deputy Vitaly Milonov proposes to introduce forced insemination for unmarried women over 24 years old. “Until the age of 24, they danced at discos, it’s time to take care of the state,” the deputy explained"
From:
petit_bateau
Active Member
Ukraine rail
www.railfreight.com
Ukrainian Railways launch new westbound services, while EU scrambles to fund grain exports
The EU is under pressure since funds to support Ukrainian grain exports via rail seem scarce. Attacks on Ukrainian Danube ports make the situation very complex and put more pressure on the rail to undertake the export task. Rail services, however, are significantly more expensive than sea...
petit_bateau
Active Member
The thrusts through Robotdyne and Staromayorske appears to have gone vehicle-heavy, and are moving forwards despite losing quite a few vehicles - many of which seem to have done their protection job.
https://twitter.com/neonhandrail/status/1684801671707402240
Looks like these are the three most active places in the south:
https://twitter.com/neonhandrail/status/1684801671707402240
Looks like these are the three most active places in the south:
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