Russia/Ukraine conflict

[wdolson]

There was talk about Russia being able to jam Starlink a few weeks ago. Is that still happening?

The Russians are still able to jam all sorts of communications locally, but the jamming equipment is vulnerable to anti-radiation attack. The video posted yesterday shows how difficult it is for Russian AD systems now. Any time they turn on their radar, in come the attack drones and HARMs. Jamming equipment has the same problem. Turn that on and you are telling anyone with the right sensing equipment exactly where you are.

I suspect that the west has quietly given Ukraine more good quality EM sensors so they can pin point all Russian emitters.

Another thing that is vulnerable to EM sensors is a modern headquarters. Most headquarter have a lot of computers which put off enough EM noise that god sensors can spot them. There was a thread on Twitter by someone a few months back showing the EM footprint of a US Army front line HQ detected from space.

Nothing to see here..just a steel furnace taking a smoke break in russia. move along...nothing to see

https://twitter.com/x/status/1693977179674091565

That smoke does not look healthy. When a fire is producing nitric acid the smoke is that color. It may be something else. Burning iron filings are rust colored too, but I think iron burns redder than that.

 

[AudubonB]

Agree re smoke. Need a lot more than one pic of a smoke-belch to determine if this is sabotage or business-as-usual pollution.

 

[Surfer of Life]

Legit differing views (which often is the case with senior military leaders), CYA article leaked to offset Administration to counter responsibility for late arrival of key arms (as pointed out by WSJ editorial recently), or xxxxx:

Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say

American strategists say Ukraine’s troops are too spread out and need to concentrate along the counteroffensive’s main front in the south.

www.nytimes.com

I dunno, but I bet Ukraine’s strategists know their businesses lots better than the “American strategists” who wrote that story.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

"
The Committee to Protect Journalists, a New York based-NGO, called on German authorities to transparently investigate the allegations raised by Kostyochenko. It also urged authorities in Georgia to investigate reports of a poisoning attempt on Russian radio journalist Irina Babloyan.

“Reports that Russian journalists Elena Kostyuchenko and Irina Babloyan may have been poisoned in Germany and Georgia are extremely alarming, and must be investigated at once,” said Carlos Martinez de la Serna, CPJ’s programme director.
"

Berlin prosecutor investigates possible poisoning of Russian journalist

Elena Kostyuchenko, who has criticised the invasion of Ukraine, fell ill on a train journey in Germany

www.theguardian.com

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Two more suspected poisonings from back in May this year:

"
Agentsvo reported that the two women had reported symptoms that pointed to possible poisoning around the time of the event at the end of April.

The women had participated in the event in Berlin at which Khodorkovsky had given a lecture. One woman, who reported feeling unwell before the conference on 29 and 30 April, took herself to the Charité hospital in central Berlin. She has not been named. The other is Natalia Arno, the head of the Free Russia Foundation, a non-profit organisation with its head office in the US. [My u.]
"

German police investigate possible poisoning of two Russian exiles

The pair attended a conference organised by the Russian Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky in April

www.theguardian.com

 

[Surfer of Life]

 

[nativewolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694164262871032154

recently this is basically every night

 

[nativewolf]

I am not at all sure about this video, re the situation in robotyne. Guess we'll see.

 

[bo3bdar]

Here is an article from Garry Kasparov that is worth reading. I don't quite agree with his conclusions, but I think he raises some interesting points that are worth thinking about. This is an example of counter-arguments that are at least well thought out and cogent, and not just stupid Ruzzkie propaganda. He has a superb timeline of events there that are worth recalling.

A History of Betrayal: Biden’s Team Keeps Negotiating About Ukraine Without Ukraine | August 13, 2023

www.kasparov.com

Having grown up in USSR I think Kasparov has a better than average understanding of Russian thinking. But also I think his understanding of the US in particular adds in some extra intrigue that would be common in Russia, but is not likely to be accurate for the US. My take is that his observations are correct, but that his conclusion that it's still a 'real-politik' game ala Kissinger is not accurate today.

 

[nativewolf]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694267466791174550

 

[nativewolf]

So this is an interesting one. Raises lots of questions such as where was Russia hiding a company of t90 in the surrounding area? UAF reports that they've made it to the edge of the next village on the valley heading to Tokmak. Novoprokopivka (sp?) Tokmak ..I can spell that if I have had coffee .

 

[Dreadnought]

Legit differing views (which often is the case with senior military leaders), CYA article leaked to offset Administration’s negative press for late arrival of key arms and/or Ukr failure to quickly succeed (as pointed out by WSJ editorial recently), or xxxxx:

Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say

American strategists say Ukraine’s troops are too spread out and need to concentrate along the counteroffensive’s main front in the south.

www.nytimes.com

I'm with the ISW on this one:

Ukrainian offensive operations in other sectors of the front remain important because they can fix Russian units in place and prevent further lateral reinforcements. Criticisms of continued Ukrainian efforts in other sectors and calls for Ukraine to concentrate all available reserves on a single axis are thus problematic.​

​

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces continued to make advances in and around Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of August 22 amid indications that Russian forces likely have a limited presence in the settlement. Geolocated footage published on August 21 and 22

www.understandingwar.org

 

[Fred42]

I'm with the ISW on this one:

Ukrainian offensive operations in other sectors of the front remain important because they can fix Russian units in place and prevent further lateral reinforcements. Criticisms of continued Ukrainian efforts in other sectors and calls for Ukraine to concentrate all available reserves on a single axis are thus problematic.​

​

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces continued to make advances in and around Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of August 22 amid indications that Russian forces likely have a limited presence in the settlement. Geolocated footage published on August 21 and 22

www.understandingwar.org

The attachment is so informative. How often do they publish this?

 

[replicant]

The attachment is so informative. How often do they publish this?

Daily.

I usually skip the intro and go straight to the bullet points for the summary. They have a RSS feed, which I filter in my app (miniflux) to only keep posts with "Russian" in the title (keep only Ukrainian war updates).

I wish I could find the same for Tesla news (text summary with links, daily or even better, weekly).

 

[petit_bateau]

China-Russia-Europe etc rail stuff

Europe and Russia volume both stepping down, where should China trains go?

The Russia situation stresses out Chinese rail freight forwarders: China-Russia rail volumes are set to drop despite the recent monopoly. Together with Europe, the westbound rail freight business is facing its downturns. One cannot help but wonder: how can we break through the situation...

www.railfreight.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

A new report by Roscosmos states that it crashed on the surface of the moon. I second those who are glad that they couldn't pull a propaganda win out of this to boost the morale. This outcome more adequately reflects the current state of Russian science than a lucky succesful landing had.

The version I read reported a collision. The moon got in the way

You guys realize that the Russians just crashed a radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) containing several kilograms of plutonium into the Moon at over 5,000 kph? How wide is the plume/cone of contamination? Did they also contaminate the vital water resources in the craters at the South pole? Ya think it'll be easier to live and work on the Moon long-term now? Who's gonna clean this *sugar* up?

This is as bad (or worse) than shortly before Feb 24, 2022 when the Russians conducted their ASAT 'test' which loaded an entire LEO shell with 10K+ pieces of space shrapnel. This irresponsible crap has got to stop. Patience is running thin.

 

[yessuz]

as we have a saying - good russian is not visible via thermal camera

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694360126625358264

F16s in late 2024 is inline with my 2025 summer offensive plan suggested here:

$24Bn is a drop in the ocean compared to the cleanup that US will end up paying the lions share of. It will be interesting watching how the media keep that quiet post Biden given that nearly all the other candidates are already playing nicely with Elon and therefore X.

At what point will the west realise that Russia keeping the land would save them those costs?

Difficult to see a path to peace without the west stepping up with more weapons ($200Bn needs to be spent and weapons provided and used in Spring/summer 2025 to start to mirror US building 4.5 ships per day peak in WWII). Russia are not sufficiently threatened. The longer Russia hold onto the land, the less they are likely to give up in a treaty. Winter is coming so it will be another year before either side progresses (if at all) right on election season.

Constant use of their weapons on receipt is insufficient. Ukraine need to stockpile and hit Russia hard in a novel way (fly troops over the trench/minefields) using the F16s as a battering ram.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Don't know what kind of source this is, but the content of the tweet seems accurate...

But regardless... They're going to need ground crews as well.

"
Danish pilots can fly F-16s in Ukraine , - Jyllands-Posten

The local publication is among the first to test the waters on the legalization of the participation of NATO retirees in the conflict against Russia on the side of Ukraine.

The main idea of the article is that while the Ukrainians will be trained to work with the fighter, the “retired” pilots of the Danish military aviation can fly the F-16.
"

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694384621843103761

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

The tweet is a bit cryptic, but apparently a RU heli pilot defected with a heli loaded full of spare parts for Su-27s and Su-30s. His family is also in UKR.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694320742005960737