s curve

[ai4px]

So for general discussion.... When a disruptive tech appears, there's an S adoption curve. A few bold people try the product, more and more see and want it and then the market reaches saturation. iPhone followed this and after 5 years the market was saturated and everyone who wanted a smart phone had a smart phone. So I ask... Model Y is number one car in every market that doesn't sell pickups. Model Y is number one after pickups in the USA. So where are we on the S curve? I think we just broken the knee and are solid on the rise. Given the lifespan of new cars, I'd say we have about 15 years until saturation. At that point the 3rd owner ICE cars will have fallen off the roads.

 

[LoudMusic]

I think we're still waiting on true longevity information. For the general build quality of the vehicle, and the lifespan of the very expensive battery. When it's proven that they can and do survive at least as long as a general ICE car, the adoption of EVs is going to go wild.

When there's an affordable EV truck and an affordable EV minivan, it's over.

Icing on the cake would be affordable home integration where the vehicle can be a home battery. There are a LOT of markets that could use small battery backup, and a few markets that could use large battery backup - as much as days, and an EV could get you there.

 

[E90alex]

There’s a couple different factors here.

Within just the EV market itself I would say Tesla is nearing the top end and reaching saturation point. With more and more competitors coming out in the near future, Tesla only stands to lose EV market share. People are bored of Teslas and bored of seeing other Teslas. Many people are also interested in EVs but are specifically against Tesla for whatever reason.

But as a part of the whole automotive market, then EVs in general are just beginning the exponential rise.

So we may see Tesla’s production and sales numbers continue to increase in the near future, but we will likely see Tesla’s market share within the EV space shrink at the same time.

 

[ai4px]

I think we're still waiting on true longevity information. For the general build quality of the vehicle, and the lifespan of the very expensive battery. When it's proven that they can and do survive at least as long as a general ICE car, the adoption of EVs is going to go wild.

When there's an affordable EV truck and an affordable EV minivan, it's over.

Icing on the cake would be affordable home integration where the vehicle can be a home battery. There are a LOT of markets that could use small battery backup, and a few markets that could use large battery backup - as much as days, and an EV could get you there.

I do answer a lot of battery questions.... so yes, you're on to something about most waiting for the longevity data. You suggest that a minivan will make big... I think a $25k competitor to Honda fit will be the end game.

 

[ai4px]

There’s a couple different factors here.

Within just the EV market itself I would say Tesla is nearing the top end and reaching saturation point. With more and more competitors coming out in the near future, Tesla only stands to lose EV market share. People are bored of Teslas and bored of seeing other Teslas. Many people are also interested in EVs but are specifically against Tesla for whatever reason.

But as a part of the whole automotive market, then EVs in general are just beginning the exponential rise.

So we may see Tesla’s production and sales numbers continue to increase in the near future, but we will likely see Tesla’s market share within the EV space shrink at the same time.

The other competitors aren't coming. GM and Ford have been saying for years they can catch Tesla anytime they want to. Now would be an excellent time. But they are losing money on each car they sell, so they intentionally crashed their 2024 model year by announcing that they'd use the NACS plug next year. They just put the kibosh on remaining 2023 inventory and 2024 production. Accident? Stupidity? nope.... they were losing money on each car they sold, so they needed a way to not sell EVs and thus not lose more money. Chevy just killed their best selling proven Bolt. So I think VW goofed on software and no one will touch them with a 10 foot pole, GM and Ford have realized they can't ramp up plus they have stealerships and unions to argue with. Toyota and Honda are shaking in their boots for the day that $25,000 car comes out.

But I do agree with you that M3 and MY are getting very common and frankly boring.... you just see so many of them.