Really stressing the "roll ITM puts" strategy for the first time for me. I've got some upper 700's and a couple lower 800's sold Puts expiring friday that are obviously deep ITM now. Per the "adiggs rule", it's interesting to me to get to experience this playing out first hand. Gives me a much better understanding of the mechanics. I'm going to wait and see what happens over the next few days, and be prepared to roll them out and down as much as i can - i like the idea of trying to keep the role at a net credit, will see if i can manage that. Again, having experienced it first hand now I understand it much better.
One suggestion I would add - pretend that you were rolling those positions today. What new strike on the different new expiration days can you get to, with a net credit that you like? I like to start tracking that ahead of when I actually roll - so far my posts about that info have me rolling under less desirable conditions than were previously available (and is par for the course when it comes to my predictions about direction, magnitude, and timing for moves in the share price).
I also like to start tracking the amount of time value remaining in the position - as that gets close to 0, that's another indicator that I might be close to rolling. Hopefully it's close to 0 because expiration is close.
For my positions:
On the put side, I have a significant position for March 5 with an 830 strike. That is $141 ITM (shares at $689) with roughly $1 in time value. I am very pleased to discover that I can roll this to March 12 and the 825 strike for a $2 credit (at this moment in time).
Being so deep ITM, I think of the roll for this position being more about gaining time. I consider every bit of strike improvement to be important, and to be gravy. I've also discovered this position is so deeply ITM that adding some of the earnings from the call leg to the put leg (taking a net debit to improve the strike more on the roll) is roughly $ for $. What I mean is that if I add $5 from the call side, then I get a roughly $5 strike improvement on the put. I'd rather that was closer to 2 for 1 or 3 for 2 (i.e. - turn that $2 net credit into a $8 net debit) and get a $15 strike improvement for making this choice.
Therefore my decision today is that it is too early to roll due to each roll being more about gaining time; I'll be waiting.
Meanwhile on the call side, that's doing really well. I lost out on part of this drop when I closed this batch of covered calls early with a 2/3rds gain. Would probably have a 4/5ths gain on those today, or would have opened a new position yesterday and already be rolling it into the current position.
I've opened a new 680 call position for Mar 5 for a $35 premium. I chose Mar 5 as it's ~2 weeks out (too soon to be writing the Mar 19 with me using every other expiration) and the premiums are significant and going up with IV. I went for a reasonably ATM strike with the 680.
I went so aggressive because
1) if the shares keep going down then I've gathered as much premium as I can (without selling ITM covered calls) to help keep those covered puts in range. And I'm ready to roll again if we're suddenly looking at upper 5s instead of upper 6s.
2) if the shares trade up, then both positions will be better positioned to get closer to ATM next week at roll time
3) And the premium collected, even if I use 75% of it to improve the leg that is doing poorly, will still yield roughly as much income in 2 weeks as my target for the month.
Interestingly to me, I feel safer with that ATM covered call than if I'd been further OTM. The significantly larger premium provides more choices, and I like how the position evolves better, whether shares are up or down from here.
And in superstitious news, the now ITM covered call and my predictive ability about direction / magnitude / timing of share price moves clearly means the share price is going up from here! That'll pummel this new call position I just put on (while also improving that big put). Maybe I can force the share price to go up!