Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Yoona]

TSLA during FOMC days, is it volatile?

In 2022,

• there is 71% probability that the morning is green (before rate is released)
• there is 57% probability that 2-230pm is red (rate is released)
• there is 57% probability that 230-4pm is green (Fed speech about the release)
• there is 57% probability that the day is green (Close-Open)
• there is 57% probability that next day is red

 

[vikings123]

TSLA during FOMC days, is it volatile?

In 2022,

• there is 71% probability that the morning is green (before rate is released)
• there is 57% probability that 2-230pm is red (rate is released)
• there is 57% probability that 230-4pm is green (Fed speech about the release)
• there is 57% probability that the day is green (Close-Open)

View attachment 869958

The big moves or the real moves have typically happened on the day after FOMC so that data might give you more insights.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

……complete playlist (just lesson 1 alone is already an eye-opener):

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFAKby4qxtHVXUxudppWUtGrsqHZZiRV_

This is amazing Thanks so much for that link. Watched several episodes and now finally starting to understand why following the Fibonacci series is so important: Albots!

So, my simple analysis of trading today: It was a day-long push down at just about every fib level, and you could draw and redraw them in real-time and see the drop unveiled. I didn’t trade them today, and I certainly won’t day trade them, but it will help identify turning points in the trend for my very SLOW rolling of CCs and CSPs.

Here’s a few graphs to illustrate. Right out of box, the 1st push down only bounced back to 0.382 level before further rejected (not a good sign, and set the tone for the entire day). The YouTube reference that Yoona provided likes to trade the 0.618 level, so clearly the bears were in charge.

Then, extending from the previous “high/rejection level” to the 10:15 low, shows the next run up and rejection at 0.618, ok more reasonable albot profit-taking level. Then the SP quickly dropped back to near zero, followed buy rise and rejection at the 0.500 level. Then continued another cycle to the 0.236 level. Hmmm, starting to see the pattern here.

Alternatively, if one kept the early high as the starting level, and the 10:15 MMD as the low, the retracement/rejection levels are still major Fibonacci numbers, just lower.

Finally, for the day trader, pinning on one of the late morning waves, one can easily see smaller up/down action that reverses on the major 0.500 and 0.618 levels. Absolutely amazing. Definitely important knowledge for anyone actively trading, options or otherwise.

 

[Yoona]

The big moves or the real moves have typically happened on the day after FOMC so that data might give you more insights.

thx, i updated the post to add Next Day

 

[Yoona]

This is amazing Thanks so much for that link. Watched several episodes and now finally starting to understand why following the Fibonacci series is so important: Albots!

So, my simple analysis of trading today: It was a day-long push down at just about every fib level, and you could draw and redraw them in real-time and see the drop unveiled. I didn’t trade them today, and I certainly won’t day trade them, but it will help identify turning points in the trend for my very SLOW rolling of CCs and CSPs.

Here’s a few graphs to illustrate. Right out of box, the 1st push down only bounced back to 0.382 level before further rejected (not a good sign, and set the tone for the entire day). The YouTube reference that Yoona provided likes to trade the 0.618 level, so clearly the bears were in charge.
View attachment 869956
Then, extending from the previous “high/rejection level” to the 10:15 low, shows the next run up and rejection at 0.618, ok more reasonable albot profit-taking level. Then the SP quickly dropped back to near zero, followed buy rise and rejection at the 0.500 level. Then continued another cycle to the 0.236 level. Hmmm, starting to see the pattern here.
View attachment 869960
Alternatively, if one kept the early high as the starting level, and the 10:15 MMD as the low, the retracement/rejection levels are still major Fibonacci numbers, just lower.
View attachment 869965
Finally, for the day trader, pinning on one of the late morning waves, one can easily see smaller up/down action that reverses on the major 0.500 and 0.618 levels. Absolutely amazing. Definitely important knowledge for anyone actively trading, options or otherwise.
View attachment 869966

wow, you're a genius!

on top of that, i add EMAs and see the bots bouncing/touching them

• 5EMA (Dan Shapiro says this shows short-term market sentiment)
• 10EMA
• 20EMA (mid-bollinger)
• 50EMA (Cory from Stock Channel)

 

[ReddyLeaf]

It's too early. I don't think the Fed is going to give the market any reason to celebrate, especially after a 40 point SPY rally in 3 weeks.
More importantly, TSLA can't just break out. It is way too early to begin a sustained rally - Q4 P&D is still 2 months away. Check out the point of origin for breakouts this year - all occurred within the last month of the quarter. Says TSLA breaks out now, what if Q4 P&D disappoints? If TSLA breaks out now, what is it going to do between now and the end of December?
Wave 2 simply requires more time than 3 days. If TSLA breaks out now, I'll be very worried as it will be just a quick, corrective rally within a bigger downtrend. It'll probably peak @ 250 - 260 before crashing further - this time targeting 160 in short order.
View attachment 869633

Thanks so much for your graphical postings and analysis. Definitely helpful and thought-provoking. Not sure who posted the Trading Warz link, but he is predicting a significant post-FMOC drop. With my newbie new-found understanding of the Fibonacci levels, I went looking for a longer term connection (graph below) which is making me more bearish until the Christmas rally. Notice that the SP high today just touched the 0.382 level. Given the previous post-FMOC drops, I think it’s prudent to buy puts tomorrow as a protective hedge, probably Dec p200s. Crazy to even admit it here.

 

[dl003]

Thanks so much for your graphical postings and analysis. Definitely helpful and thought-provoking. Not sure who posted the Trading Warz link, but he is predicting a significant post-FMOC drop. With my newbie new-found understanding of the Fibonacci levels, I went looking for a longer term connection (graph below) which is making me more bearish until the Christmas rally. Notice that the SP high today just touched the 0.382 level. Given the previous post-FMOC drops, I think it’s prudent to buy puts tomorrow as a protective hedge, probably Dec p200s. Crazy to even admit it here.
View attachment 870029

My chart shows a sizeable drop but not catastrophic. My money is on we hit 217 tomorrow / Thursday before a dead cat bounce early next week. The end target late next week is ~ 200. That's where I hope to be able to call the end of wave 2/B. Too many people looking for an earth-shattering move after the meeting. I think 90% of what Powell will say is already known.

 

[intelligator]

Similar to Monday, not much movement up or down. call interest at 230 is slightly up, 235 chimed in some, lost a little interest at 250, as well 220 and 230 put interest trimmed. My thoughts for a green morning are to sell 11/11 or 11/18, either -c235 or -c240 against b-w bought at 220 with intent to close out early afternoon Wednesday or red Thursday. If the reaction is positive, I add to cash position for another round of b-w or csp.

 

[WattsHappening]

I'm reading intently. You guys are pretty bearish. I hope you're wrong; I fear you are right.

You guys give any weight to the idea that the Biden administration is going to try to strong-arm Powell tomorrow as a last ditch effort to save the midterms? I'm grasping at straws.

 

[vikings123]

I'm reading intently. You guys are pretty bearish. I hope you're wrong; I fear you are right.

You guys give any weight to the idea that the Biden administration is going to try to strong-arm Powell tomorrow as a last ditch effort to save the midterms? I'm grasping at straws.

I don’t think it’s an idea, it’s more than that. Pelosi and other senators apparently sent a letter to Powell expressing their concerns about the pace of rate increases.

So tomorrow’s fed talk post decision will be key. 75 bps is a given for November so be careful with the initial reaction as there will be so much volatility anyway.

If you are going to buy puts I suggest shorter term 1-2 weeks out because anything further out is very expensive. Alternatively you can sell ITM calls as a hedge.

The thing with puts though is that the general sentiment is negative especially with retail. And we all know how rigged this game is against retail.

 

[dl003]

I'm reading intently. You guys are pretty bearish. I hope you're wrong; I fear you are right.

You guys give any weight to the idea that the Biden administration is going to try to strong-arm Powell tomorrow as a last ditch effort to save the midterms? I'm grasping at straws.

I strongly suggest people to take on an extremely cautious stance in this environment. This bear market has punished almost every bottom caller and leveraged traders. When I read "I hope you're wrong", I can relive the pain I felt seeing people I know getting blown up because of inadequate risk management. Hope is a luxury we can't afford, trading this market. If you don't trade a lot, hope is fine. If you practice good risk management, you don't have to hope. If you have to hope, you'll run into troubles sooner or later. I don't consider myself bearish as that concept, to me at least, conveys a sort of emotion. I'm not pessimistic about the economy or Tesla. It is what it is. The global economy is a complex equation of goods & services, supplies & demands, power & politics, etc... and right now that equation is not producing a favorable environment for risk-on assets and the sort of generous valuation we'd enjoyed for the last 13 years. That is a fact. Tomorrow does not matter much in the long run. We might get to extend this relief rally a bit longer if Powell comes in dovish but the long term picture remains rocky. If we get a green day tomorrow, it'll be a chance to reduce leverage and hedge. It won't be cause for celebration. Sooner or later the chicken will come home to roost. This coming recession will be bad. I'm naturally an optimistic person and I remain so even as I'm writing this response. However, I've been trying to avoid sounding hopeful but instead choosing to merely relay messages conveyed by the chart and these messages haven't been jolly. The reason for my doing so is I know there will be people reading my message who are having to make difficult decisions about positions that have gone wrong, and I don't want my messages to impact their decisions in a harmful way. In short: I don't want to be the guy who gives false hopes.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Expecting a sell off after FOMC meeting with the reversal pattern.

Time to risk off according to him. Rolled my 18/11 235CCs to 2/12 250CCs yesterday for a $1.50 credit but it seems I should have just sat on my hands

 

[SebastienBonny]

Expecting a sell off after FOMC meeting with the reversal pattern.

Time to risk off according to him. Rolled my 18/11 235CCs to 2/12 250CCs yesterday for a $1.50 credit but it seems I should have just sat on my hands

I’m holding a 240CC for friday, but if there is an opportunity before FOMC to close it at 80%, I’ll take it. Opener last week for 3.02. It was a bit above 50% yesterday at close.

 

[wnorris]

wow, you're a genius!

on top of that, i add EMAs and see the bots bouncing/touching them

• 5EMA (Dan Shapiro says this shows short-term market sentiment)
• 10EMA
• 20EMA (mid-bollinger)
• 50EMA (Cory from Stock Channel)

Do you run a thinkScript for these or do you run single ToS studies for each?

 

[Yoona]

Do you run a thinkScript for these or do you run single ToS studies for each?

it's one-time setup; click on Edit Studies and add the DEMA study 4 times

 

[Yoona]

Thanks so much for your graphical postings and analysis. Definitely helpful and thought-provoking. Not sure who posted the Trading Warz link, but he is predicting a significant post-FMOC drop. With my newbie new-found understanding of the Fibonacci levels, I went looking for a longer term connection (graph below) which is making me more bearish until the Christmas rally. Notice that the SP high today just touched the 0.382 level. Given the previous post-FMOC drops, I think it’s prudent to buy puts tomorrow as a protective hedge, probably Dec p200s. Crazy to even admit it here.
View attachment 870029

if you plot from the 9/21 peak, it will become even more obvious that 230 is res since Oct 18, too many sellers there

 

[Yoona]

STO 11/11 -c252.50

 

[Discoducky]

Curious if anyone is bullish on Powell today? I'm on the fence and tried to find the consensus pie chart, but my google search foo failed.

 

[corduroy]

Curious if anyone is bullish on Powell today? I'm on the fence and tried to find the consensus pie chart, but my google search foo failed.

If this is true and history repeats itself for a 5th time, we may see a rally this afternoon

 

[elasalle]

Curious if anyone is bullish on Powell today? I'm on the fence and tried to find the consensus pie chart, but my google search foo failed.

The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a point and then signal it could slow the pace (I think this is what Big Boys are thinking)

VIX up to 26 (from 25 yesterday), I think it's a 50-50, with a lean towards moderation for Dec onwards.

For binary events such as this, one side is surely gonna win cheers!!