Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[AquaY]

Curious if anyone is bullish on Powell today? I'm on the fence and tried to find the consensus pie chart, but my google search foo failed.

75 BPS is pretty much considered set in stone.
The real issue if they signal a pivot.
I doubt it. i think Powell will do his best to straddle the fence between that and appearing hawkish.

 

[vikings123]

The volume is abysmal. It sure has the feel of a bear trap but Powell could help out the bears. 272 is a key level for QQQ and I think we bounce around that level for the next hour or so.

I have some puts I bought at the open today and I plan to hold those until Friday. It's my weekly YOLO . My hands are itching to buy some calls but I'm going to resist.

 

[SebastienBonny]

I’m holding a 240CC for friday, but if there is an opportunity before FOMC to close it at 80%, I’ll take it. Opener last week for 3.02. It was a bit above 50% yesterday at close.

It took a while, but BTC order got executed at todays low.
Looking for a reopen for friday or next friday later today if FOMC permits.

 

[phantasms]

I can't help but think we bounce hard later and they run with something stupid like "Powell wore a white tie which is like a dove." all while he gives the press conference with an actual hawk on his shoulder.

 

[UltradoomY]

If this is true and history repeats itself for a 5th time, we may see a rally this afternoon

View attachment 870258

@Discoducky this is what I did last time we had a FED announcement.

Went exactly as planned.... but you can NOT be away from the desk for this - plugged in and STO/BTC real quick.
Last month it was good for Sushi and Whiskey money, this month I want Nice Whiskey!

I am going for $210's on the Put side and $235 on the Call side.

 

[Discoducky]

Found it! 88% chance of 0.75 vs 12% 0.50

Dec 14th expectation is currently 50/50 for 0.75 or 0.50

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

 

[bkp_duke]

Found it! 88% chance of 0.75 vs 12% 0.50

Dec 14th expectation is currently 50/50 for 0.75 or 0.50

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Probably the drop in the market we see today is re-pricing for Dec more towards 75 bps.

 

[intelligator]

STO 11/11 -c252.50

Nice, safe and manageable. You're already 25% !

 

[scubastevo80]

Wrote an IC at noon - $0.50 for 180/200 and 245/265. I'm expecting a whole lot of nothing given we all know what's coming from the Fed based on the jobs report and other data. 75bps plus JP's finger remains on the rate hike button. I believe today's sell off reflects the market's belief that a slowdown in increases isn't coming in today's commentary.

 

[Max Plaid]

If this is true and history repeats itself for a 5th time, we may see a rally this afternoon

View attachment 870258

5th time's not the charm...

 

[ninpb]

I can't help but think we bounce hard later and they run with something stupid like "Powell wore a white tie which is like a dove." all while he gives the press conference with an actual hawk on his shoulder.

How about stepping up to the podium John Woo style.

 

[corduroy]

5th time's not the charm...

Since we got the rally first, does that mean the dump is coming at 2:30?

 

[vikings123]

Since we got the rally first, does that mean the dump is coming at 2:30?

Or we stay in a range to kill all the put buyers and dump tomorrow

 

[dl003]

I'd wait for SPY to bounce back up to 388 before selling new calls.

not what I had in mind for TSLA yesterday but I sold new calls @ SPY 388 regardless.

 

[corduroy]

Still holding my -245 and -250p's, hoping for green to roll tomorrow.

I rode that FOMC spike for a nice beer/whiskey money trade: SPY 0 DTE BCS 25x -393/403 in at .60 out at .05, 12 minutes later.

 

[juanmedina]

so now what?

 

[Discoducky]

@Discoducky this is what I did last time we had a FED announcement.

Went exactly as planned.... but you can NOT be away from the desk for this - plugged in and STO/BTC real quick.
Last month it was good for Sushi and Whiskey money, this month I want Nice Whiskey!

I am going for $210's on the Put side and $235 on the Call side.

I'm imagining a very nice Whiskey has been earned?

 

[dl003]

My chart shows a sizeable drop but not catastrophic. My money is on we hit 217 tomorrow / Thursday before a dead cat bounce early next week. The end target late next week is ~ 200. That's where I hope to be able to call the end of wave 2/B. Too many people looking for an earth-shattering move after the meeting. I think 90% of what Powell will say is already known.

Chart drawn yesterday. Not bearish. It is what it is.

 

[elasalle]

so now what?

Nov 10th .. Oct CPI

and then on to Semi release
(some China numbers in the mix ... 1st mths in Q will be low but still spinable

 

[vikings123]

so now what?

!