Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[OrthoSurg]

Hmmmmmm. Now I know why there was a lot of angst selling BPS in 2022. My max risk level was triggered when I sold 5x BPS/BCS/IC.

In other news, lots of articles about US debt limit reached, and potential effects on market/macros, highlighting the importance for us. Macros likely to continue the bear market in short term.

Perhaps, that’s why this guy closed his TSLA trade (only $15 gain on 200 shares, so minuscule) and is still 100% cash and hedged short. I’ve been impressed with his analysis (mostly short-term TA) and have linked his stuff in the past, although he overuses the word “massive.”

Every other technical analysts chartists are talking about bull break out from reverse H&S, cup%handle, break out from the down trend line on TSLA. Macro might go lower effectively but TSLA had great TA signs. However the earnings might send us either way.

 

[EVNow]

Yep, I was "absolutely certain"* we'd close below 130 given the previous red days, but nope, same as last week, closed above - MM's/Hedgies/Wedgies defending puts more than calls it seems...

Looks like the closing price is Max Pain +/-5 in the past few weeks. In general thats what I'd expect without significant news.

The Monday run-up suspiciously looked like someone was anxious to get to 130. There was no major news for that sudden 7% jump.

 

[SebastienBonny]

I know, premarket can be misleading, but it surely looks like we are building up into earnings.
That makes the sell-off after more credible should we have 3 green days to come now.

 

[scubastevo80]

Up 2% pre-market today and Nasdaq is up. I'm really curious to see what happens with earnings this week. If we move up ~4-5% today, I'm writing covered calls on my entire position (likely $150-155 for Feb 3rd), and if I get called I'll write some puts at a price I'd like to re-enter at. Given the environment we're in, I don't see a strong short-term breakout upwards that doesn't revert. Institutional investors will not pay high growth multiples for TSLA, especially after 2022. I also think an earnings report that isn't great sends us right back down. There's too many short term line items that could surprise negatively (margins, Cybertruck production timing) IMO. That said, this is again a short-term view/opinion, and longer term I still think the company is in great shape.

 

[BornToFly]

Up 2% pre-market today and Nasdaq is up. I'm really curious to see what happens with earnings this week. If we move up ~4-5% today, I'm writing covered calls on my entire position (likely $150-155 for Feb 3rd), and if I get called I'll write some puts at a price I'd like to re-enter at. Given the environment we're in, I don't see a strong short-term breakout upwards that doesn't revert. Institutional investors will not pay high growth multiples for TSLA, especially after 2022. I also think an earnings report that isn't great sends us right back down. There's too many short term line items that could surprise negatively (margins, Cybertruck production timing) IMO. That said, this is again a short-term view/opinion, and longer term I still think the company is in great shape.

You're brave. I'm worried about the 155, 160, and 162.5CC I have for Friday. I should have waited until today to sell CC for this week. They are worth a lot more now than they were last week. TSLA was 300 not too long ago, and should have never dropped. Obviously I could be wrong, but I would not be surprised with 150 two days from now, and then 10% higher than that AH on Wednesday after earnings.

 

[SebastienBonny]

You're brave. I'm worried about the 155, 160, and 162.5CC I have for Friday. I should have waited until today to sell CC for this week. They are worth a lot more now than they were last week. TSLA was 300 not too long ago, and should have never dropped. Obviously I could be wrong, but I would not be surprised with 150 two days from now, and then 10% higher than that AH on Wednesday after earnings.

Luckily we can roll like 10 higher just before market close on wednesday.
Closing them and opening new contracts one day later is possible as well, but you might end up opening ITM contracts for the same premium due to IV crush.

 

[juanmedina]

You're brave. I'm worried about the 155, 160, and 162.5CC I have for Friday. I should have waited until today to sell CC for this week. They are worth a lot more now than they were last week. TSLA was 300 not too long ago, and should have never dropped. Obviously I could be wrong, but I would not be surprised with 150 two days from now, and then 10% higher than that AH on Wednesday after earnings.

I am such a chicken as well and meanwhile we have people like @Max Plaid and @ReddyLeaf making a killing. I am also selling $162.5CC for Friday and legging in slow, so far at $0.60-0.64

 

[CHGolferJim]

I am such a chicken as well and meanwhile we have people like @Max Plaid and @ReddyLeaf making a killing. I am also selling $162.5CC for Friday and legging in slow, so far at $0.60-0.64

Glad my $142 CC expired on Friday!

Now looking for right timing to roll 3Feb$125 buy-writes, will probably spectate until at least Thursday (only $1 strIke improvement for 1 week roll with pennies credit at the moment).

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I know, premarket can be misleading, but it surely looks like we are building up into earnings.
That makes the sell-off after more credible should we have 3 green days to come now.

And mind the gap-up today (if we stay above 134 of course) 132 will probably be revisited in the near future

 

[bingoz]

You're brave. I'm worried about the 155, 160, and 162.5CC I have for Friday. I should have waited until today to sell CC for this week. They are worth a lot more now than they were last week. TSLA was 300 not too long ago, and should have never dropped. Obviously I could be wrong, but I would not be surprised with 150 two days from now, and then 10% higher than that AH on Wednesday after earnings.

I have 155 and 160cc too, but Im not worried too much. Because 1) I think the stock might revisit the whatever gap we potentially have after the ER at some points And 2) the possibility of the stock price to break 160 in one shot and never come back is quite low as we saw 102 just 2 weeks ago, a 50% rise needs a retrace.

Edit: besides that, there is still a 50% of the gap down after ER too.

 

[scubastevo80]

You're brave. I'm worried about the 155, 160, and 162.5CC I have for Friday. I should have waited until today to sell CC for this week. They are worth a lot more now than they were last week. TSLA was 300 not too long ago, and should have never dropped. Obviously I could be wrong, but I would not be surprised with 150 two days from now, and then 10% higher than that AH on Wednesday after earnings.

You don't think folks will take profits on Thursday regardless of earnings? I can't see going up that high without a break, but what do I know given my record in 2022. People that bought close to $100 would be up 50% in less than a month. I can't see this going back to $250 this year unless the whole market starts ripping.

 

[juanmedina]

You don't think folks will take profits on Thursday regardless of earnings? I can't see going up that high without a break, but what do I know given my record in 2022. People that bought close to $100 would be up 50% in less than a month. I can't see this going back to $250 this year unless the whole market starts ripping.

Tesla move in mysterious ways, always expect the unexpected. Low $100's also seem ridiculous cheap to me. $250 would be insane by the end of the year and I would be super happy with $230.

 

[bingoz]

Tesla move in mysterious way, always expect the unexpected. Low $100's also seem ridiculous cheap to me. $250 would be insane by the end of the year and I would be super happy with $230.

I hope for 200 EOY and more than happy if your predictions are correct

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I am such a chicken as well and meanwhile we have people like @Max Plaid and @ReddyLeaf making a killing. I am also selling $162.5CC for Friday and legging in slow, so far at $0.60-0.64

Make that past tense please. I just closed all my CCs for about 2x loss, and rolled the CSPs up to $140. This week will give me a net loss for sure. Started with a directional trade this AM, but seems like the SP wants to run, so decided to just take the CC losses and wait it out. My biggest losses in the past were rolling (instead of just closing) losing positions while the SP continued in the same direction for weeks, compounding the losses.

It’s all good because I’ve reached my share goal and will just try to scrape off a dollar or two on puts or 20% OTM CCs. Just need the SP to return to ATH and I’ll get that Plaid MS and buy MYs for some family.

Even though I posted a TA video about a possible upcoming macro crash, that doesn’t mean TSLA will follow. We were so depressed at $110 that a modest earnings beat could jump the stock back to $200 in a flash. I’m hopeful that the SP continues up and this isn’t a bull trap. In either case, I’ll just continue selling ATM puts, maybe a few 20% OTM CCs and wheel it as necessary. Edit: I did buy some more AAPL Mar/May p80s insurance just in case the macros tank on recession or US debt limit concerns.

 

[Max Plaid]

I am such a chicken as well and meanwhile we have people like @Max Plaid and @ReddyLeaf making a killing. I am also selling $162.5CC for Friday and legging in slow, so far at $0.60-0.64

Weeeellll, thinking my 26x -c130's might need some, uhh, management end of the week but as I always mention, and will do so again, it's only 20% of available contracts, so to roll them up and out is no big deal

But looking to recuperate the lost profits from the 26x -c130's I was forced to close last Friday, STO 26x -c150 @$3.1 -> these might also be at risk, but the price is not an unattractive point to offload some shares to facilitate some put selling. If this sucker's going up, up, up, then that's where you want to be...

 

[intelligator]

I'm considering a 1/27 $162.50 cc , looks reasonable at .90 or 1.00 , it may fare well with pullback anytime before Friday

 

[CHGolferJim]

I have 155 and 160cc too, but Im not worried too much. Because 1) I think the stock might revisit the whatever gap we potentially have after the ER at some points And 2) the possibility of the stock price to break 160 in one shot and never come back is quite low as we saw 102 just 2 weeks ago, a 50% rise needs a retrace.

Edit: besides that, there is still a 50% of the gap down after ER too.

Seems likely to me as well.

 

[CHGolferJim]

I'm considering a 1/27 $162.50 cc , looks reasonable at .90 or 1.00 , it may fare well with pullback anytime before Friday

Thinking something like that for 3Feb based on ~ Thu 11AM + 10%.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

SPY>$400 alert, this can change things big time if still >$400 @ close today. Still suppose it could be the third rejection later today. If not, i will put up some -P . Already rolled -c 130's to 137 and 139 and was much surprised by today's price action.
We appear to be back to old school "@10:00 up? -> rest of the day up".
Looking for a little $TSLA pullback to go bullish on, only if SP>400

 

[juanmedina]

Have you seen this guys? this might get stock to go up really fast, if it is true:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617561586897678341