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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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So maybe a good feeling for the state of the company, but indeed wrong-footed by the markets
I find there to be a time disconnect between the company and the stock; it is true for most companies though. The market reaction starting in January might have been anticipating Q1 deliveries and general concern with the EV sector. That is the challenge of the trading game; cause and effect are connected in opaque ways.

Me, I am too emotionally connected to Tesla to trade it too much. I have longer-term objectives there and can focus on it. I have no such link to NVDA, so I can be much more mechanical in my approach there; I want to acquire a position long term, but will play the wheel to get there.
 
If you're incorporating FSD technology related information into your investment thesis then I highly, highly recommend you either be driving a Tesla FSD (best), or at minimum get a test drive from a friend / Tesla that includes you being in the driver seat and driving for at least a few miles with FSD turned on.

I got a friend into my Model X the last week or so. There is magic in that first corner coming up, and then the car going around that corner, that has to be experienced. We all know that it sounds cool and stuff - but for those of us who have driven FSD we've had that moment. A mix of exhilaration, awe, terror; like the future has arrived and you've just experienced it. That was his first experience - its not really enough to alter his investment thesis, but I hope it will inform his efforts to include the info (which he is doing).


For incorporating FSD in a meaningful way into your investment thesis I really do strongly recommend (yes - Advice!) that you be driving a Tesla with FSD. Its the only meaningful way, MHO, to have insight both into how amazing it really is, and how far away it really is, from a car that drives itself.
Got 2 cars with FSD. Not betting against the Future. Seen it. Waiting for 155-160 pullback for selling Puts and going Long.
 
I was out drinking yesterday lunchtime and ended up continuing through the evening. Discovered my broker phone app doesn't work for BTC, lets you pick that option, but then flips to BTO on the confirmation screen! So ended up at my friends house on his Mac with a QWERTY keyboard (I use AZERTY), hardly able to see straight as I was so drunk, closing everything out 😂

Still, got it all done, although prices could have been better if I'd caught it after the FUD dump rather than before

25x -c160 -> 25x 5/24 -c170 @$8.5, net -$1
STO 100x 5/3 -p170 ($4.1)

Those 4x SMCI 5/3 -p1000's beginning to look OK, will be a nice outcome if they go OTM
Lots of drinking in your neck of the woods @Max Plaid ? Of course, just joking…
 
I didn’t know that, cool! Were you there before or after MobileEye. I am curious about the real reason why Tesla and ME parted ways.
Since it's the weekend...I PMd the Mobileye solution and we parted ways due to the ME CEO being too conservative, same with Bosch, and not moving fast enough to 3d vision which Jenson was happy spin up with us. I've heard Jenson then didn't move fast enough with their edge GPU. The rest of the story is in Walter's book which is a lovely read. Ashok and Dhaval will go down in history as the FSD guru's, amoung others.
 
Excellent write up.

Also, I'd like to add that @Max Plaid 's notion of "We've seen in the past TSLA go on these bull runs based on nothing" is a bit misguided. Ultimately, there's one and only one reason why stocks go up, and that's because we have more buyers than sellers.

There are a lot of reasons for having more buyers than sellers, and beating earning and having a normal CEO are just 2 of those reasons. Said another way, focusing solely on the fundamentals to predict short term price movement is like peeking at the outside through a keyhole. For 2023, the recipe for the 2 crazy 100% runs was the same.

1. People shorted it too much at 100 and then again at 152. Notice how multiple personalities on Youtube including Rob Mauer was speaking of defeat. All my friends were selling 120 & 130 CCs. Tears were shed after the bounce no matter how hard I tried to talk them out of it. <- we just had 4 long months of pessimism
2. Money flowed back into the market, lifting TSLA with it <- money is flowing out but it will be back in in about 3 weeks
3. Some shorts saw no reason to stay short, covered and lifted it a bit further <- this just happened this last week
4. A bit of positive news get thrown into the mix and lifted it up even further <- this might or might not be coming. No way to tell
5. Along the way, new shorts entered because they thought it was BS
6. At some point the seemingly BS news just kept popping up every other day, and now every short felt the heat
7. The technicals flipped so strong that long traders entered
8. P&D / ER coming up and shorts started asking the question "what if it beats?" and then they ran for the door
9. Huge squeeze

So, thinking "it's running based on nothing" is a big part of the reason why it runs, cuz too many think that and bet against it, only to become fuel for the rocket. So there's a real reason for the run. You just won't see it if you're too focused on what you think is wrong with the company and Elon.

Longer term, if you're right that the company deserves a 90 SP, then the market will eventually vindicate you, but along the way, it will test you. It will break you down mentally and physically if you insist on going against the trend. It's easy to think I'll just stay short and sooner or later these stupid bulls will pay, but what if it squeezes to 300, 350? You will feel like a different person then. The worst thing is you might be right that TSLA deserves 100 right now, but then the BS bull run takes too long to end and it gets to a quarter where business starts picking up and then it seems like it will never come down again.

As for me, I try to use the chart to predict the future although people say don't do it, it's futile. They say only trade the short timeframes, don't try to play god. I don't intend to play god but only use probability and a confluence of indicators to guide my action and hope it's the right one. Ultimately, if you think in your heart of heart that TSLA will be huge 10 years from now, like I do even though I dont look at the fundamentals while trading, you shouldn't be too bearish. If your living situation permits it, it's much better to always lean bullish and see these troughs as short term setbacks. Looking at NVDA, I sweat at the possibility of FSD taking off and leaving those who are short behind so far to the point of potential bankruptcy. You can be right 9/10 times shorting, but that last one where it runs like it did in 2020 can kill you.
Now after reading that I am hesitating to throw in all the money I have into more TSLA Leaps
 
BREAKING: A new Tesla FSD/AP blamed fatality

Driver admits to being distracted by looking at his phone while “putting trust in the machine to drive for him.” Clearly he’s at fault (must keep eyes on the road while using FSD) but this can give the critics about Tesla’s alleged distracted monitoring weakness a lift. (Although regular ICE cars without any AP have ZERO distracted driving monitoring/disconnections…)

If FSD/AP was indeed engaged it should have braked, hence the logs will likely show it wasn’t active at that moment(?)

Let see if this starts a new FUD cycle about FSD/AP safety and drains air from TSLA:

1714280131721.png


 
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BREAKING: A new Tesla FSD/AP blamed fatality

Driver admits to being distracted by looking at his phone while “putting trust in the machine to drive for him.” Clearly he’s at fault (must keep eyes on the road while using FSD) but this can give the critics about Tesla’s alleged distracted monitoring weakness a lift. (Although regular ICE cars without any AP have ZERO distracted driving monitoring/disconnections…)

If FSD/AP was indeed engaged it should have braked, hence the logs will likely show it wasn’t active at that moment(?)

Let see if this starts a new FUD cycle about FSD/AP safety and drains air from TSLA:

View attachment 1042487

Safety critical code, like AEB, is Rock solid at motorcycle detection unless the driver ignores warnings with explicit throttle actuation.
 
Reflecting on this week, it was pretty brutal. To be correctly positioned for garbage earnings, only for the stock to reverse rather than crash more was nasty, whether this was "Market dynamics", manipulation, earnings not as awful as expected, change of sentiment, don't know, probably a mix of everything

It was essentially a $300k flip for me - if I had sold off my July +p150's the day before earnings I had +$150k profits, +$220k cash back into my portfolio. Instead those puts went back to $7 value and the -c140's I had written went -$150k instead 😩

So what did I learn? Well the same lesson as the last time I had some +p's that went 2x on a dip -> take the profits immediately. Like before, I was waiting for more, I had a "game plan", TSLA always dumps 10% on earnings, even on a beat, except this time if didn't, so it goes

Fortunately this was not a "bet the farm" trade and I had plenty of leeway to get out of it, it's just annoying, especially as I was lining-up retirement from the day job if my strategy had played out

So we live to fight another day, hopefully a little wiser and able to make better decisions next time around
 
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BREAKING: A new Tesla FSD/AP blamed fatality

Driver admits to being distracted by looking at his phone while “putting trust in the machine to drive for him.” Clearly he’s at fault (must keep eyes on the road while using FSD) but this can give the critics about Tesla’s alleged distracted monitoring weakness a lift. (Although regular ICE cars without any AP have ZERO distracted driving monitoring/disconnections…)

If FSD/AP was indeed engaged it should have braked, hence the logs will likely show it wasn’t active at that moment(?)

Let see if this starts a new FUD cycle about FSD/AP safety and drains air from TSLA:

View attachment 1042487

You will discover the results of the investigation 18 months from now. If FSD was proven to not be engaged, it will not be reported widely, if at all.

The propaganda is real, relentless and effective. Will never stop.