Why not sell covered calls on shares around $200 price point (if you have any) where you’re okay if they get exercised/taken?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Why not sell covered calls on shares around $200 price point (if you have any) where you’re okay if they get exercised/taken?
I'm not ok losing any of my shares at $200....
Why does everyone think the SP will drop? Consensus EPS is 85c which already takes into account a 20% reduction in profits accounted for by the price-cuts. However, WS seems blind to the cogs reductions, logistic cost reductions, scale increase at the new factories and battery cost reductions from the IRA, not to mention increased profits from Energy (with huge IRA subsidies)...
So good chance of a beat, I would have thought.. just my opinion...
Of course I've seen Tesla beat earnings many times over the years and still dump, hence I expect flat to somewhat negative and have positioned for that
I too don't like to buy puts as I consider it money lost when the SP rises, I'd rather buy some shares and write ITM calls - the benefit of losing short positions is that they can be rolled essentially forever
Once again, your trades appear to be perfectly aligned with expectations. Options market currently pricing $170-$200 range expected. Since I’m still trying to clean up my mess from Q1, I won’t be trading quite as much, or as close. However, if I was in a better position, might try just a bit higher -p/-c195s or even -p/-c200s straddles. The SP should run up into Wednesday to near 200, or maybe even just a bit over. Then, I expect a dump back down to whatever MaxPain is at the time, probably 190-195. I’ll probably sit this one out (except 150/160 BPS and May +p150s insurance). If we get a huge run up to ~220 on Wednesday, then I might consider CCs at $230 or so. Hmmm, maybe I’ll just put in a GTC order for $2.50 now.Yeah, except I'm not playing, it's a "carefully constructed medium-term strategy"
Reminder: 10x -p190 + 30x -c190 -> expectation flat to down, will gladly take the shares with a net price below 160, then sell -c190 into oblivion
My May +p150s are already down $2000, so not a very good investment. Probably better to have waited until Wednesday. Good luck.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not sure anyone saw this on the finance thread. So, reposting here.
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Ok here goes.
I assumed everything would be exactly same as Q4, except
- No extra FSD revenue recognition
- Deliveries are higher (duh!)
- Varied ASP & GM as shown
- No Buyout of noncontrolling interest
- Assumed same lease revenue and cost. Too complicated to compute based on current and past lease deliveries
The Yahoo consensus forecast is EPS of 0.86 and Revenue of $23.34B (in Yellow). To get that we need
- $49,177 ASP (vs $52,689 in Q4) and 21.5% GM (vs 25.9% in Q4) or
- Lower on the GM/ASP compensated by higher revenue & margin on energy & services or
- some combination of the above
- One thing to note, reg credits that were quite high in Q4. May not happen this quarter (except we don't know about IRS)
If we just take $47K ASP and 20% GM as per the question answered by Zach - we get 0.72 EPS and 22.46B revenue (assuming everything else remains the same).
I think it is possible, but can't rule out a miss.
ps : Anyone have breakout of consensus revenue/COGS break-down by auto/energy/services ?
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Ok here goes.
I assumed everything would be exactly same as Q4, except
- No extra FSD revenue recognition
- Deliveries are higher (duh!)
- Varied ASP & GM as shown
- No Buyout of noncontrolling interest
- Assumed same lease revenue and cost. Too complicated to compute based on current and past lease deliveries
The Yahoo consensus forecast is EPS of 0.86 and Revenue of $23.34B (in Yellow). To get that we need
- $49,177 ASP (vs $52,689 in Q4) and 21.5% GM (vs 25.9% in Q4) or
- Lower on the GM/ASP compensated by higher revenue & margin on energy & services or
- some combination of the above
- One thing to note, reg credits that were quite high in Q4. May not happen this quarter (except we don't know about IRS)
If we just take $47K ASP and 20% GM as per the question answered by Zach - we get 0.72 EPS and 22.46B revenue (assuming everything else remains the same).
I think it is possible, but can't rule out a miss.
ps : Anyone have breakout of consensus revenue/COGS break-down by auto/energy/services ?
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dc_h
Active Member
I have 195, 200 and 210 CC’s due Friday. Ok to lose them or roll them. Harder call is keeping or selling July 140 calls. I’m not sure a big beat would cause a run up past 210, but a big miss could take us to that 164 gap. That said, we’ve averaged ~5-6% post earning moves lately. Yoona’s bull/bear spreads seem pretty logical.
I’m in a tax free account.
How's your margin looking? Don't let fear drive your losses. TSLA is coming into this ER looking pretty neutral so I don't think anyone should "protect themselves" unless margin calls are just around the corner.
What ranges are you seeing given the EW you posted last week. $170-160 before $200 still in play?
Probably not gonna see lower than 170 before ER. If we see 170 before ER, it'll be a good R:R play to go long into ER. Given the underperformance on Friday, I think there's a good chance it'll happen during this 3 days before ER.
IMO, we're much closer to a bottom than to a top. If we drop after ER, worst I can see is we keep chopping in this 160-180 range until Q3 ER before taking off. The stock will need to either fly at some point not so distant in the future or keep consolidating. No crashes. That's my only read atm.
Yes, prices were cut, but it's not like big bois haven't had the time and computing power to estimate the hit on margin. It's not like we hadn't dropped from 300 to 185 in 6 months. The stock ran up 115% in under 2 months. There was a lot of profit for the taking and yet they're struggling to even touch the 50% retracement mark even with all the price cuts announced.
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I bought Puts for P&D and that was a waste. They were weeklies and the IV crush made them worthless although the stock went down.and they were not really that far OTM. I would also like if there is some kind of rule thumb to what puts to buy for protection. So far I have been selling $210cc's for Friday and I will add more or for Friday or next Friday depending on how the stock and IV behaves.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
That number is probably just the overnight gap. Not the ER weekly move. Not even the daily move ... 144 to 160 last time.
Margin isn't too bad at the moment, but if Fidelity raises the margin requirement from 50% to 60% I'm screwed. I'm still waiting for a 7 figure deposit from selling my share of my plane, and a wash sale in January meant I ended up with capital gains in 2022 (despite my massive losses), so I have to send the IRS $200k tomorrow. All of this is setting up a perfect storm scenario where I can get destroyed if the SP goes to 130 in the next month. I did end up buying May 21st 160 Puts. I did May in the hope that I can sell them for not too big a loss if the SP doesn't drop this week since there will still be time value left (as opposed to buying Puts for this week).
Playing the mentioned IC, looks good to me.
Near high of morning I opened call side for 1.20 , can close it now at .8, instead put in order for .6 , that'd be 50%. By then should be able to open the put side for .90 or better.
Near high of morning I opened call side for 1.20 , can close it now at .8, instead put in order for .6 , that'd be 50%. By then should be able to open the put side for .90 or better.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
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