Something I've been thinking about, and even talking about with somebody locally that I yack about this stuff with, is the split I now have in my thinking about TSLA.
The long term investor in me hasn't changed in my thinking at all. I still expect a $4k-$10k share price by 2030. Most importantly I continue to track information I consider relevant to that 10+ year investment thesis and whether or not that thesis is weakening or even broken down.
The other part of me that is a pretty new part of me (April of last year; it's my anniversary!) cares about sub-3 month movements and factors influencing the share price. And mostly more like weekly or a month range of impact.
I say all of that to say this. We've had a lot of bad news drip drip dripping out about Tesla for the last month or so. Today's news (that I saw) was Stellantis talking to Tesla about how to back out of the pooling arrangement they have as they don't need it any longer (my immediate reaction - I think they are premature, but they also have plenty of spreadsheet jockeys for whom this analysis is totally in their wheelhouse and I'm not there - I take their word for it); labor probe in Germany about the GF site; 6 month delay in first production in Germany. I'm sure that with little effort we can come up with many more the last week or three.
What does this mean though?
The long term part of me that has been following along for nearly 10 years says "it means nothing". I've seen all of this and worse the last 10 years, both concentrated and spread out, and its all just noise. The earlier days when each and every fire event with a Tesla would dominate the news cycle for weeks - even when it was a situation where everybody in the car should have been dead, but instead they walked away and got to watch their Model S burn (slowly).
Anyway - even the 6 month delay in first units won't make a bit of difference in 5 years, and probably more like 2 or 3. The factory will be at full production by then and nobody will be talking about how we could have had 6 incremental months of full production at that point.
The short term part of me though - I'm trying to weigh out whether this short term news is particularly bad (impact) and whether there is a particularly large amount of it (volume). And on this point, my read is that the short term negativity is higher volume than normal and some of it has more impact than normal (most of it is noise, even in the short term).
AND whether it matters to me or not, my belief system doesn't matter to the share price. It's the belief of the overall investor community, complete with the ability of the shorts to manipulate that belief via news and share price, that matters.
So while I do think a bit of a bounce is called for tomorrow, my slightly wider point of view (which is not technically driven) is more bearish. I don't have a target or timeframe for this view - on that I think there is more of a bias downwards from here than upwards. For those that see a spring being wound tighter and tighter - you could easily be right. I'm more in the camp that last year's run has priced in all of this year's good news and potential good news, and then more.
These are my opinions and they do influence my own decisions, and thus the consequences I experience. Not advice. I r not financial advisor.
