Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[adiggs]

At roughly 75% gain decided to close the short put side of my put spread for next week. In around 1.10, out at .22 or so.

With .06 left on the 135 insurance put, I've decided to hang onto these over the weekend. That most likely means I am also giving back most of those .06, but in case of something really bad happening over the weekend I've got an impromptu hedge. If the share price drops modestly Monday morning, then I've got the insurance put already in place to form a new put spread for 5/5.

When I've done this before it almost always results in losing most all of the remaining value in the insurance put. But it's also worked out in the past, the money is small, and the convenience factor is valuable to me.


@dl003 - do you know of any online classes, particular books / textbooks, video series, ... for somebody wanting to learn Elliot Wave Theory? I've got the contextual basics which leads me to wanting to learn more. I realize I'm looking at years ahead of me worth of learning, doing, and gaining experience. I'm hoping for something more organized to get started with than me going out, finding something random that I think looks good (given my ignorance), and then just winging it.

Sort of how a class as part of a degree doesn't turn a person into an expert - it just teaches them the basics and gives the student the tools to expand on the knowledge gained, and begin to accrue the real experience to turn that class into an actual skill. I'm hoping for something to help me get started.

The end goal for me is to be doing my own charting and analysis similar to what you're doing. I'd like to be able to argue with you (in the debate and both-get-better-sense; not in the I'm-going-to-prove-you-wrong sense).

 

[vikings123]

Last but not least, give me one name of a TA or FA analyst who makes money on a permanent base

I can give you plenty of names. TA obviously cannot work 100% so that’s why you use the tools to limit losses when the positions don’t go per plan.

For all those trying to sell calls next week please have a plan if we break 166/167 level. Look for volume to come in strong.

All this chat about GDP, CPI blah blah is noise. The real signal is in TA.

 

[EVNow]

The problem with TA and also with FA by the way, is that it doesn't work.

Absolutely - if something worked 100% (or for that matter even slightly better than 50% with no risk) - trillions of dollars would be poured into it. There are no short cuts, no sure-fire formulas. Millions of very bright minds have looked at this for decades.

 

[dl003]

At roughly 75% gain decided to close the short put side of my put spread for next week. In around 1.10, out at .22 or so.

With .06 left on the 135 insurance put, I've decided to hang onto these over the weekend. That most likely means I am also giving back most of those .06, but in case of something really bad happening over the weekend I've got an impromptu hedge. If the share price drops modestly Monday morning, then I've got the insurance put already in place to form a new put spread for 5/5.

When I've done this before it almost always results in losing most all of the remaining value in the insurance put. But it's also worked out in the past, the money is small, and the convenience factor is valuable to me.


@dl003 - do you know of any online classes, particular books / textbooks, video series, ... for somebody wanting to learn Elliot Wave Theory? I've got the contextual basics which leads me to wanting to learn more. I realize I'm looking at years ahead of me worth of learning, doing, and gaining experience. I'm hoping for something more organized to get started with than me going out, finding something random that I think looks good (given my ignorance), and then just winging it.

Sort of how a class as part of a degree doesn't turn a person into an expert - it just teaches them the basics and gives the student the tools to expand on the knowledge gained, and begin to accrue the real experience to turn that class into an actual skill. I'm hoping for something to help me get started.

The end goal for me is to be doing my own charting and analysis similar to what you're doing. I'd like to be able to argue with you (in the debate and both-get-better-sense; not in the I'm-going-to-prove-you-wrong sense).

Here's a classic.

(PDF) Elliott Wave Principle - Key to Market Behavior by Frost and Prechter - DOKUMEN.TIPS

Read PDF online: Elliott Wave Principle - Key to Market Behavior by Frost and Prechter. Pages 256, Filesize 69.46M. Download as PDF

dokumen.tips

 

[EVNow]

All this chat about GDP, CPI blah blah is noise. The real signal is in TA.

Reminds me of theist - atheist debates ....

 

[Vova]

I can give you plenty of names. TA obviously cannot work 100% so that’s why you use the tools to limit losses when the positions don’t go per plan.

For all those trying to sell calls next week please have a plan if we break 166/167 level. Look for volume to come in strong.

All this chat about GDP, CPI blah blah is noise. The real signal is in TA.

You can give plenty names but you mention none.

 

[EVNow]

TA obviously cannot work 100%

I think the TA vs non-TA is not a productive debate here. We had a lot of that in the main thread a few years back and it was banned (IIRC).

What would be more interesting is for TA guys to post what they think will be the SP at the end of the week, every week (according to TA). Because thats what this thread is really all about. We can tally over months how many times, which TA is more correct ...

 

[vikings123]

You can give plenty names but you mention none.

How many do you want? For a start I will give the name of a guy I follow very closely. Dan Shapiro. He does not trade using EWT but has his own system called PS60.

I also was not a big believer in TA but over time you get to appreciate the value in it especially when you tune out the noise.

 

[bingoz]

And yet we seem to gravitate to it more often than not...

Anyway, I'm not convinced by this rally tbh. The GDP number this week was dreadful, today's economic indicators were quite mixed, I've no idea what the FED will do next week, based on recent form they'll raise again...

Edit: in the Max Pain video he's saying that institutions shorting or selling stock to manipulate a stock price is not a great approach due to the risk and exposure, but I think we all know a lot of the manipulation comes from naked shorting and spoofing

I am not convinced either. Will roll my -c160 4/28 to another week at the end of the day.

 

[Jim Holder]

You can give plenty names but you mention none.

Please stop

 

[vikings123]

I think the TA vs non-TA is not a productive debate here. We had a lot of that in the main thread a few years back and it was banned (IIRC).

What would be more interesting is for TA guys to post what they think will be the SP at the end of the week, every week (according to TA). Because thats what this thread is really all about. We can tally over months how many times, which TA is more correct ...

I use daily and hourly charts. A week is a long time. Yeah it would be nice if I could give you weekly targets but that’s just not how it works. I would be doing a disservice to you if I gave you precise levels. It appears EWT gives you those levels but I don’t use EWT so I cannot speak for EWT.

 

[dl003]

Last but not least, give me one name of a TA or FA analyst who makes money on a permanent base.

If your definition of a permanent basis is winning on every trade then no I haven't met anyone like that. If you mean consistent overall net profit then there are a lot of people, ordinary people like you and me, who are making very comfortable living off the chart. I talk to them every day. One of my friends was so good Fidelity hired him and made him an Account Manager.

As to the timeless paradox of "if TA works, how come there's no quadrillionaires already?" The answer is our own psychological and physical limits. Some of us are comfortable betting $1000, some $10,000, so on and so forth. Regardless of how good you are, everybody runs into the wall of their own mortality sooner or later. Our risk management becomes off. We start losing sleep betting too large.

 

[Vova]

Made a profit of USD 145 on the Aprils but invested USD 253 in the May butterflies which are in loss. But I use the may butterfly as hedge for a June position.

I am buying a June 170 call and sell 2 June 185 calls. The 170 call I buy for USD 1120, the 185 call I sell for USD 570 each which makes USD 1140. USD 20 in plus.

Which gives me the following position:

1 Call June 170
-2 Call June 185
1 Call may 200
-2 Call may 220
1 Call may 240

Profit/loss:
+145
-253
+20

Investment USD 88.

Just keep it simple. No TA or FA but just trade the options.

I think I'm transparent on my trades. No high risk and thus no quick profits or quick loss. Just be patient and manage risks in an affordable way. Take your time. Time gives you the opportunity to adjust your positions. That's important.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Ok, I admit it, those -c150's I sold not looking great at this moment in time!

Quite the bounce from 153, on no news whatsoever, so it goes!!

Someone had to take one for the T E A M. Thanks for that much needed positive rise before the weekend.

 

[EVNow]

I use daily and hourly charts. A week is a long time. Yeah it would be nice if I could give you weekly targets but that’s just not how it works. I would be doing a disservice to you if I gave you precise levels. It appears EWT gives you those levels but I don’t use EWT so I cannot speak for EWT.

Is TA thesis falsifiable ? If not, we are looking at voodoo - if yes, let us test it out.

If you mean consistent overall net profit then there are a lot of people, ordinary people like you and me, who are making very comfortable living off the chart.

Lot of people have made a comfortable living off fundamental analysis. I believe there are some even in the top 10 richest people in the world list too ...

 

[Vova]

How many do you want? For a start I will give the name of a guy I follow very closely. Dan Shapiro. He does not trade using EWT but has his own system called PS60.

I also was not a big believer in TA but over time you get to appreciate the value in it especially when you tune out the noise.

How many I want? Plenty of course, not just 1.

But I'll stick to @Jim Holder his request to just stop. I leave it here.

 

[Vova]

If your definition of a permanent basis is winning on every trade then no I haven't met anyone like that. If you mean consistent overall net profit then there are a lot of people, ordinary people like you and me, who are making very comfortable living off the chart. I talk to them every day. One of my friends was so good Fidelity hired him and made him an Account Manager.

As to the timeless paradox of "if TA works, how come there's no quadrillionaires already?" The answer is our own psychological and physical limits. Some of us are comfortable betting $1000, some $10,000, so on and so forth. Regardless of how good you are, everybody runs into the wall of their own mortality sooner or later. Our risk management becomes off. We start losing sleep betting too large.

I did not mention "winning on every trade" I agree with you, that is impossible.

My point is about making your trade decisions on either TA or FA. That doesn't work.

 

[dl003]

Is TA thesis falsifiable ? If not, we are looking at voodoo - if yes, let us test it out.

Lot of people have made a comfortable living off fundamental analysis. I believe there are some even in the top 10 richest people in the world list too ...

I've never said FA doesn't work. What I said is in the short term, TA trumps FA, with a few exceptions, for example: penny, pump & dump, bankruptcy plays...
We're not talking about making insane return on TSLA in 10 years. I'm holding, just like you. We're talking about predicting highs and lows and general directions in the short term. I've been making predictions here for the last 2 years and you're now just talking about testing it out.

 

[dc_h]

Wow, premiums for next week are very low. I have to roll 10 160 calls to 165 5/5, but will not sell anything for next week for now. 180 May 5 CC's were .28 this morning and still only .36. That is about 10% annual, if you got it every week, but with a reasonable chance of losing your shares.

Seems like these premium droughts often happen before a market move.

 

[EVNow]

But I'll stick to @Jim Holder his request to just stop. I leave it here.

@Jim Holder Can you also request TA guys to stop ? Because I stopped a long time back .... but they keep posting / boasting.

ps : Its easy to point out some "wins" and completely forget about all the things that didn't work (or continuous target price changes).