Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[dl003]

I did not mention "winning on every trade" I agree with you, that is impossible.

My point is about making your trade decisions on either TA or FA. That doesn't work.

We live in different worlds. What you say doesn't work is as fundamental to me as breathing. I know something works because I've seen it. You don't think it works because you haven't seen it. In fact, I'm one of those people who make a living 80% out of TA. There's no point debating.

 

[EVNow]

I've never said FA doesn't work. What I said is in the short term, TA trumps FA, with a few exceptions,...

That is definitely not what you said ... may be thats what you meant. As I said ... there is no point in these debates. I look at everything because apparently many traders do ... and they tend to drive SP in the very short term (barring news). Lets just move along or take this debate to a different thread.

 

[MikeC]

Who cares? If TA works for you, use it. If it doesn't, don't.

Both sides should stop polluting the options selling thread trying to convince people who don't care about your opinion that they're wrong. At the end of the day, we're all just guessing.

On topic - after rolling today, I ended this week with a lot more 160 (10x) and 165 (20x) CCs for next week than I wanted. I still feel there's no huge jump coming in the next few months, so my plan if we keep going up is to keep rolling week to week as they go ITM.

I am starting to buy a few 12/25 +c150s and +c300s just in case this is the low.

 

[Vova]

We live in different worlds. What you say doesn't work is as fundamental to me as breathing. I know something works because I've seen it. You don't think it works because you haven't seen it. In fact, I'm one of those people who make a living 80% out of TA. There's no point debating.

Pity I need to break my promise on @Jim Holder but I feel I need to react.

Just prove me what I don't see and further on, prove me you make a living on it.

I am transparent on my trades. If you state you make a living on your trades 80% of the time out of TA I think it's your turn to be transparent on your trades too.

 

[Max Plaid]

I think we should desist with the bitching over TA. We all have our own methodologies, which sometimes works, sometimes doesn't, the trick is for it to come good more often than not

I'm not a big believer myself in TA, but I'm happy to take it in as another data-point to add to what I do myself, have to admit though that I can't follow the EW thing, that's way too complicated for me, but I do see the logic in support and resistance levels, that makes sense and seems to play-out out a lot of the time

My trades are mostly intuitive and tend to be direction-based than anything else. I'm looking for trajectory and velocity of the stock and take sentiment a lot into account, as well as the weekly options distribution, news, etc. Most of the time I'm quite successful - out of 75 trades so far this year, 65 were positive, of course the losses, when they come, tend to be bigger than the wins, because it's typically when I get an absolute certainty about an outcome and take extended risks (like 118x -c150's - although we have to see how next week plays out, eh?)

So live-and-let live, be grateful that folks are sharing, if it's not for you, scroll down a bit

 

[Jim Holder]

Pity I need to break my promise on @Jim Holder but I feel I need to react.

Just prove me what I don't see and further on, prove me you make a living on it.

I am transparent on my trades. If you state you make a living on your trades 80% of the time out of TA I think it's your turn to be transparent on your trades too.

Mods…can we get some help keeping this thread on track and not let people come in here and blow it up challenging and chasing people away?

We have a good thing going and let’s keep it that way.

 

[Jim Holder]

Be grateful that folks are sharing, if it's not for you, scroll down a bit.

Thank you for this, couldn’t agree more.

 

[jeewee3000]

Let us indeed settle down. But more to the point we should have a rule here that you cannot criticize a posters analysis/prediction/train of thought unless you post your own contrary analysis and reasoning behind it.

Too many love to diss TA but add little to the table themselves.

Imho @dl003 is one of the most valuable contributors in this thread. If you're not interested in his views, just ignore him but don't get in his face. Be valuable yourself instead.

 

[Jim Holder]

We should have a rule here that you cannot criticize a posters analysis/prediction/train of thought.

Imho @dl003 is one of the most valuable contributors in this thread. Be valuable yourself.

I agree.

Nobody forces any of us to come here, and those that do come to share their option ideas, share price direction views, market plays and foibles, should be welcomed with warmth and appreciation, never derision and challenge.

 

[Vova]

Nobody forces any of us to come here, and those that do come to share their option ideas, share price direction views, market plays and foibles, should be welcomed with warmth and appreciation,

But for some reason my option ideas, share price direction views, market plays and foibles are not welcomed with warmth and appreciation.

 

[Jim Holder]

But for some reason my option ideas, share price direction views, market plays and foibles are not welcomed with warmth and appreciation.

This?

Just prove me what I don't see and further on, prove me you make a living on it.

 

[Vova]

This?

Yes, a legitimate question I think. I repeat, I am transparent on my transactions. You have been able to follow on this thread.

 

[Vova]

And as far as:

Be nice or leave

Is concerned, I am just asking questions on the basis of posts people post here themselves, nothing more.

 

[Vova]

I think we should desist with the bitching over TA. We all have our own methodologies, which sometimes works, sometimes doesn't, the trick is for it to come good more often than not

I'm not a big believer myself in TA, but I'm happy to take it in as another data-point to add to what I do myself, have to admit though that I can't follow the EW thing, that's way too complicated for me, but I do see the logic in support and resistance levels, that makes sense and seems to play-out out a lot of the time

My trades are mostly intuitive and tend to be direction-based than anything else. I'm looking for trajectory and velocity of the stock and take sentiment a lot into account, as well as the weekly options distribution, news, etc. Most of the time I'm quite successful - out of 75 trades so far this year, 65 were positive, of course the losses, when they come, tend to be bigger than the wins, because it's typically when I get an absolute certainty about an outcome and take extended risks (like 118x -c150's - although we have to see how next week plays out, eh?)

So live-and-let live, be grateful that folks are sharing, if it's not for you, scroll down a bit

Well said!

 

[adiggs]

Here's a classic.

(PDF) Elliott Wave Principle - Key to Market Behavior by Frost and Prechter - DOKUMEN.TIPS

Read PDF online: Elliott Wave Principle - Key to Market Behavior by Frost and Prechter. Pages 256, Filesize 69.46M. Download as PDF

dokumen.tips

Did some hunting and found this link that provides a free edition of the book (its a book - 256 pages). You might need to create a login at elliotwave.com, followed by their advertising for their investing service / education.

The pdf above was wanting me to install some software - I decided I didn't want to do that .


On to page 3!


Thank you muchly for posting this. I think I asked before and you pointed me here before. Maybe I'm ready now to start studying.

 

[dl003]

Wow, premiums for next week are very low. I have to roll 10 160 calls to 165 5/5, but will not sell anything for next week for now. 180 May 5 CC's were .28 this morning and still only .36. That is about 10% annual, if you got it every week, but with a reasonable chance of losing your shares.

Seems like these premium droughts often happen before a market move.

Maybe its the other way around. Maybe its the rapid call selling that is causing the drop in SP. If a lot of people was holding out on selling CC until after the ER and it turned out to be a non event, they would race to sell those calls first thing the next day, causing massive downward pressure and even lower call premiums. This is different from a true panic. I dont think this boring ER was cause for a panic.

Pity I need to break my promise on @Jim Holder but I feel I need to react.

Just prove me what I don't see and further on, prove me you make a living on it.

I am transparent on my trades. If you state you make a living on your trades 80% of the time out of TA I think it's your turn to be transparent on your trades too.

I have nothing to prove to anyone.

@ All, I think I started all this when I suggested that Youtube creators like Rob was counterproductive to us as traders. That may have brought unintenteded consequnces. Rob is a good guy and I respect him. In the old days when the stock was down days after days, I’d go on to see what Rob gotta say to cheer me up, even when if I had losing positions that needed to be dealt with.

I was constantly thinking “if only I can hold out till next ER, surely Elon is going to save me”, or some other variations of that. Then one day I just stopped as it just seemed no matter how positive they sounded the stock just wouldnt stop dropping. Then I began to look at the chart and save myself. I thought if I could help people to wean off these feel good channels itd be a good thing. But, in the end, do whatever works for you.

 

[kabin]

I'm not much of a TA believer either but it's used almost everywhere as a platform for trade ideas. Not sure it makes much sense in a dedicated Tesla options thread but that's proven to be a dead horse. Hopefully very few folks are seriously trading from these ideas.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Yes, a legitimate question I think. I repeat, I am transparent on my transactions. You have been able to follow on this thread.

I think part of the problem is that your criticism post count have far exceeded your contribution posts. If you could flip the ratio the other way, that would help reduce the noise.

 

[adiggs]

Just prove me what I don't see and further on, prove me you make a living on it.

I'm using this as a jumping off point to talk more broadly about how I see this thread in particular, and the online community that it represents.

The #1 thing to realize about this thread is that there isn't anybody here that is a financial advisor. And as a result we each make our own decisions, however it is we go about making those decisions, and we each experience our own consequences. Our mutual working assumption is that we're random people, with a passion for Tesla/TSLA, and we see value in understanding and/or doing option trading in TSLA. Or entertainment, or whatever brings us back to read regularly.

We also find it valuable to discuss what we're seeing and learning with other people with a similar background (random person, passion for Tesla/TSLA, value in understanding and/or doing options trading in TSLA). Thus the online community.

Everything beyond that is up to us individually to assess and act on (and experience the consequences of our own decisions).


In my estimation, over time, we've built up a really strong community of similarly minded people. Similarly minded doesn't mean we think the same - it means that we're finding value in our joint experience, research, and information we share. Most importantly - the community isn't something that I (thread creator), or @Right_Said_Fred (our resident moderator), or TMC (this website and host), or any individual contributor created. It's something that we all, jointly, create every day that we post.

We are all responsible for the community that we have, and that we create.


To the specific quote I started with - since the topic is technical analysis, its up to you to prove to yourself that TA is or is not valuable to you. It doesn't matter if people are, or are not, making a fortune with it. It doesn't matter if people are, or are not, making a living use it.

What value anybody else finds in it is ultimately irrelevant as you are the decision maker for yourself. You might find it valuable to ask about resources that you can study to learn more about the subject (if you want to) and that might help you decide for yourself if its valuable for you or not.


Anybody that hasn't read the first page of the thread, or done so recently, you might find it valuable to go back and (re)read it. It started off with me chronicling some stuff I'd been thinking about, really critical assumptions I was making, and then what I was doing about it. Today we refer to this as "the options thread", but at least for me, its still the same idea as it was back then. Its just got 2 or 3 years of evolution on it now, so the stuff I think about and study today were unknowable to me back then.

 

[intelligator]

Can we get back on track? LOL. I had a morning like other. Miraculously, i am able to express my thoughts... effectively I get a second chance. I owe big thanks to the one closest to me for noticing and taking action and the medical professionals that urgently treated me. Thanks you, whoever is watching. Through the thick of the day, i managed to roll -c162.5/+c167.5 at midpoint to 5/5 -c165/+c170 for a debit, giving up a third of the credit. I'll early manage next week, holding on to the remainder or to recapture the debit. There you have it, i shared my position. Have a nice weekend all.