Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[MikeC]

Closed 170c a little too early for a small loss. Holding 30x -c170-177.50 for next week and a handful of -p170.

Just bought a couple +c167.50 for today to gamble on a bounce back to 170.

 

[juanmedina]

Just wow . I open a few $192.5 at $0.56 and closed them at 50% profit. Absolutely lame.

I am too chicken to use margin now days.

 

[Max Plaid]

I have been busy... I did decide to go ahead with my plan to flip all my shares to LEAPS and I BTO 90x December 2025 c140 @$73 at the low today, will it go lower, who knows, doesn't really matter, this is a long 31 month play and just requires some safe weekly shitcalls to recuperate those premiums, no need to rush, 136 expiry weeks to play with

Went for the c140's as they're far more liquid than the 150's, and the pricing was good - the 150's closed yesterday at $72, so to get $10 less strike for $1 more cost over what I had expected, that's a deal!

Now I wait for the 90x -c150's to expire over the weekend, then look to write some aggressive puts and a handful of calls - 50c per LEAP per week gets my premium back, that should be doable

I did screw-up at one point and accidentally sold 30x rather than bought - I'm so used to short options, I'm surprised the broker allowed it as they were naked, I guess I had enough cash to cover. Of course I had to BTC at market and that was $4300 wasted for fat fingers as the bid/ask was wide and no interest in the mid price...

Somewhat mitigated with BTC 30x -p162.50 net +$2.4 when the SP was up at $177, would resell those, but I'm rather low on cash until those calls exercise...!

Aggressive put selling on Monday, but not all-in, half my cash at most to facilitate a roll-down if necessary, -c180 looking favourite for a few LCC's

As for today's price action, I think "they" are just ensuring we don't close above the call-wall at c170 - they got hammered last week and wouldn't want a repeat today. Note that QQQ hit critical resistance right after markets opened @327, went down from there, TSLA resisted a bit, 177 also being a strong resistance, normal that shorty jumps-in at these levels

 

[EVNow]

I have been busy... I did decide to go ahead with my plan to flip all my shares to LEAPS and I BTO 90x December 2025 c140 @$73 at the low today, will it go lower, who knows, doesn't really matter, this is a long 31 month play and just requires some safe weekly shitcalls to recuperate those premiums, no need to rush, 136 expiry weeks to play with

I'm going to wait for Q2 earnings before making that kind of "drastic" move

Still not re-entered after letting my shares called away after Q1 ER @182.50.

 

[Jim Holder]

Looks like $167 held so far and should provide a floor (at least for another week…) especially with the Tesla investor meeting mid-next week as some still trade the news. I guess we’ll find out!

Meanwhile I’m getting practice holding onto the 5/19 -P167.50 (very red) and -P165 (gains evaporated from +$9k to +$1k).

Exercising emotional control muscles! Trading bootcamp

 

[Max Plaid]

Wouldn't it be amusing if Elon were to Tweet right now that the WSJ sorry about him leaving as CEO was false... that would be hilarious for the c170 sellers...

 

[Jim Holder]

Wouldn't it be amusing if Elon were to Tweet right now that the WSJ sorry about him leaving as CEO was false... that would be hilarious for the c170 sellers...

I wouldn’t want anyone to lose money, but yeh, would be great to hear from him.

Edit: He just tweeted at the same time he did yesterday. Tepid response from the market to that. Makes one wonder what was yesterday’s run all about. Maybe ppl are worn out by now. Maybe I should stop trying to interpret things I know little about

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657108798480470018

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Degenerate gambler chiming in. Flip rolled 5/19 -172.5p backwards into 2x 5/12 -170c for a few cents credit. Banking on max pain for tomorrow. Even if TSLA ends up at 170, $1.7 for 1DTE should still be profitable. Will reopen the 5/19 -172.5p if TSLA drops to 167.5. This is in IRA, so no tax implications to worry about.

Dang! I'm loving these 1DTE decision days! Twitter-scare aside, it was almost textbook. If monday hits 175, then I'm flipping to covered-calls. Is there a gambler's anonymous support thread on TMC?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I wouldn’t want anyone to lose money, but yeh, would be great to hear from him.

Edit: He just tweeted at the same time he did yesterday. Tepid response from the market to that. Makes one wonder what was yesterday’s run all about. Maybe ppl are worn out by now. Maybe I should stop trying to interpret things I know little about

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657108798480470018

not-advice, but with hindsight, I'm guessing they were shorts covering, since retail's already all-in? And then Monday Friday macros probably gave shorts the confidence to pile back in?

 

[Max Plaid]

I wouldn’t want anyone to lose money, but yeh, would be great to hear from him.

Edit: He just tweeted at the same time he did yesterday. Tepid response from the market to that. Makes one wonder what was yesterday’s run all about. Maybe ppl are worn out by now. Maybe I should stop trying to interpret things I know little about

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657108798480470018

Aha, that explains the big green candles 20 minutes before close, which reversed quite fast. I think the problem here is that he didn't deny the report, he just said "spend more time on Tesla", but doesn't specify in which capacity. Maybe he's not allowed to deny it on Twitter too, might be an "SEC violation" or something, who knows

 

[EVNow]

Looks like $167 held so far and should provide a floor (at least for another week…) especially with the Tesla investor meeting mid-next week as some still trade the news. I guess we’ll find out!

Friday price action is always suspect - so I wouldn’t read much into that 167 floor for next week.

Meanwhile I’m getting practice holding onto the 5/19 -P167.50 (very red) and -P165 (gains evaporated from +$9k to +$1k).

Exercising emotional control muscles! Trading bootcamp

Very red is when the strike is 20% ITM

 

[Jim Holder]

Friday price action is always suspect - so I wouldn’t read much into that 167 floor for next week.



Very red is when the strike is 20% ITM

 

[Jim Holder]

Aha, that explains the big green candles 20 minutes before close, which reversed quite fast. I think the problem here is that he didn't deny the report, he just said "spend more time on Tesla", but doesn't specify in which capacity. Maybe he's not allowed to deny it on Twitter too, might be an "SEC violation" or something, who knows

He replied “obviously” to her tweet of:
“Elon, @elonmusk , please let @WSJ know you aren’t stepping down from being the CEO of @Tesla. These belong in the circus .”

“Obviously” sounds pretty clear to me he’s saying that he’s not stepping down, though I agree he could have been a bit more clear.

 

[Jim Holder]

All the wicks on the bottom today have got to mean for something positive, no?

$TSLA (1-Hr)


Dark Pool block trades has been buying more than selling too:

Huge DP level at $168.56. When money is at a large DP level it usually keep SP around there:

Option flow is bearish:

 

[Jim Holder]

A little excel work and some research to plan for in case the -P167.50 5/19 and -P165 5/19 get assigned next week (so I learn how to do this BEFORE I put on a trade next time) helped calm the nerves to know what I'm looking at.

The projected share prices below feeds the gain/loss after exercise. In TOS it shows that my margin will hold even if both exercised with TSLA down to $162. Lower and I'll have to sell some immediately to top off margin.

At the end it appears I put on too many for comfort and I'll be more conservative and less aggressive next time.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Still holding:
Jan2025 -c210s, Jan2025 -p/-c200s, and June2023 -c170s
5/12 ICs: 155/165/180/190, 150/160/175/185
5/19 ICs: 155/165/180/190
1x 5/12 IC: +p135/-p160/-c175/+c200 at $1.40 (~4.5%)
1x 5/19 IC: +p135/-p160/-c175/+c200 at $4.50 (~25%)

(IB) at +p140/-p170/-c170/+c200 at $4.80, $3000 at risk, premium received near $480, so up to 16% return (480/3000)…... only works if the SP ends exactly at $170 on Friday. In reality, I won’t wait that long and plan to close early, hoping for theta decay to provide a small return, maybe $100-$200.

Master class today. Thanks MMs for the education.

Fortunately, most of my positions expired worthless, but what a ride. That Iron Butterfly was enough excitement for all year. Up $150 last night, down $350 at today’s open, up $250 mid-day, down $250 by close. Whew, I need a drink! Eventually decided to roll to +p155/-p175/-c175/+c205 for another $6.95 credit. Probably stupid, but wanted to experience a “normal” week.

Of course, got scared by the early AM Twitter response and rolled some call spreads (that would have expired) at a bad time, but not everything. Closed most positions for pennies so earned a month’s living expenses, while still buying back a few more Jan2025 calls. Feels great to have most of my shares free, a few wide ICs set for next week, and plenty of available cash to initiate new positions or react to crazy SP gyrations. If SP goes up, sell CCs. If SP goes down buyback more Jan2025 CCs. Wait until Wednesday to sell more ICs for 2-5% yield. Seems like a good plan. As always, GLTA and have a great weekend enjoying the real world.

Edit: ok option jockeys, what do you think this trade at 12:01 is all about? July 21 expiration:
20,000x p60 at $0.12 ask
40,000x p80 at $0.29 bid
20,000x p100 at $0.80 ask

 

[Jim Holder]

Edit: ok option jockeys, what do you think this trade at 12:01 is all about? July 21 expiration:
20,000x p60 at $0.12 ask
40,000x p80 at $0.29 bid
20,000x p100 at $0.80 ask

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Looks like this is a 99% guaranteed 2.46%. Nothing to see here. Experts at work, good down to $105 SP.

 

[Jim Holder]

Looks like this is a 99% guaranteed 2.46%. Nothing to see here. Experts at work, good down to $105 SP.
View attachment 937177

Can you elaborate on what you mean

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Can you elaborate on what you mean

Sure. Plugging those trades into the options profit calculator, there is a 99% chance that everything expires worthless, so the trader gets to keep all the premiums. (Edit: at least any SP above $115). For such low risk, guaranteed return, the trader gets a decent return, above inflation, but not so outlandishly high that it’s too risky. My thought is that this must be a very conservative options strategy to “park” a large amount of investor (mutual fund?) cash for a few months. Hence, an expert who cannot afford to lose other people’s money.

I redid the numbers and the return is slightly lower than my first attempt. Don’t know what typo happened, but in any case, similar results.