This current level 208.50(high from 03/31) seems to have some decent resistance but if we close above this level we could probably see 212 tomorrow and possibly 216 is in reach in a short time(maybe tomorrow but possibly next week)
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
This current level 208.50(high from 03/31) seems to have some decent resistance but if we close above this level we could probably see 212 tomorrow and possibly 216 is in reach in a short time(maybe tomorrow but possibly next week)
Glad he said “can, not “will” lol.We'll see how true this is ...
The rest of what he said was if it closes over $208.93 by at least 1% then it can set a new floor going forward. We’ll see!
I sold a 330C/Jan2024 for $9 credit today when we breached $208, and immediately entered a limit BTC for $8 on an inevitable pullback. Thinking it's less risky to try to make a quick $100 gain at a more distant expiration than to play with fire selling weeklies in this environment.
Any thoughts about letting go some shares here? When do you guys see a pull back? Previous pulls back from this low 200's level have been substantial.
will be rolling back some ITM long-dated short puts to try to ride this wave.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I'm looking at $250 to take some money off the table - I think it's possible between P&D and earnings if we keep the macro momentum up.
Around 500k shares sitting at the $210 resistance in lvl2 - also where some swing traders might look to take profit - as of writing this.
Definitely not worried about a run to ATH's in this environment even with HIghland or Cybertruck release. We need to scale profits for WS to buy in at this point - IMO.
We certainly will not rocket to $300 before end of month - and I don't see $225 without a $10-$15 pull back.
Again - all speculation, but I'm positioning for $250 around July 14th just in case.
Curious about your strategy here, as I also have some ITM short puts for 2024/2025 expiration. How near term would you consider rolling to? Reduce your strikes or keep them where they are?
Spent most of the trading day flying today. I landed with a little more than an hour of trading day left. I checked TSLA on my phone while on a long taxi from the runway to parking and saw over 209. I was so surprised I'm lucky I didn't drift off and hit something! I was in a pretty bad mood while unloading the plane and loading the car. I had my wife drive as I got the iPad out and was looking at different rolling options. Ended up not doing anything as the SP retreated to 207. Now I'm going to be stuck at the computer all day tomorrow, instead of enjoying the outdoors, so I don't throw money away. I may roll the 207.5 to Jan 2024 350, or to next week 220-230 range depending on premium. If we close over 210 tomorrow, I'm not sure 230 is safe next week (only 10%).
Closed out most of Friday’s positions today because I got steamrolled the past two Friday’s. So, you’re welcome, the SP will now close between $200-$210.
Left over $5k on the table, but walked away with significantly more, so trying not to be a slaughtered pig. Still holding some -c210s (yes, playing with fire here), -c220s and +p170/-p190s which are nearly worthless. All have $0.05 close orders in place just in case there is some whipsaw action before I wake up. Planning to roll the -c210s since it’s really just a small number of buy-writes. I still have some June -c190s that I will just keep pushing out as a hedge against a significant pull-back (don’t expect it, but if I can get $1/wk it’s a worthwhile hedge). GLTA.
Left over $5k on the table, but walked away with significantly more, so trying not to be a slaughtered pig. Still holding some -c210s (yes, playing with fire here), -c220s and +p170/-p190s which are nearly worthless. All have $0.05 close orders in place just in case there is some whipsaw action before I wake up. Planning to roll the -c210s since it’s really just a small number of buy-writes. I still have some June -c190s that I will just keep pushing out as a hedge against a significant pull-back (don’t expect it, but if I can get $1/wk it’s a worthwhile hedge). GLTA.Normally I roll backwards and up on a day that I think is a bottom (which is usually a down day), because there's less extrinsic value to trade for intrinsic. In today's case, I rolled a Dec '25 -250p back to a Sep '24 -270p for a $1.7 credit.
The thinking is that if this climb continues, then the short put becomes profitable more quickly, since theta runs out sooner.
BUT, every good thing must come to an end! So if I think we're at a high, and the short put is still ITM, then I'll roll it back out (hopefully to a lower and earlier strike than Dec '25 -250p) - hopefully also for a net credit. This would be a protective move, because if the option is too DITM, then I run the risk of it being exercised against me.
By trading this way (short puts for short put), even if I'm WRONG, and the stock reverses (or continues climbing), then my net bullish position (ITM short puts) hasn't really changed, only the strike price and expiration date has.
Keeping fingers crossed!
I'm trying to figure out what to do about the 4,000 shares I had sold back at 160 to increase my margin in case the SP was going to keep dropping. I have sold Puts every week, so I raised the break even from 160 to 187. But with the SP now at 207, if I just buy back the shares I lose $80k. The other option is just keep selling ATM Puts, but if the SP keeps rising, the loss of buying back the shares is going to keep increasing unless we get a pullback. If this is the start of the steam roller to 400 there might not be a pullback.... Selling 300 strike Jan 2024 Puts doesn't really help because the premium only gives an extra $6 on top of the current spread. Thoughts?
Not advice:
I'm 'down' a similar amount from not holding some long calls. Can't change the past.
Buying shares doesn't lose you $80k. You have the same value (for that moment) whether in cash or stock. Maybe drop the history (unless there are tax implications), consider the value of your current portfolio as T-0, and determine what you think will best increase it going forward.
Maybe sell mostly atm puts and buyback a small portion of shares to be used for buy writes with atm calls sold as well?
I have been rolling everything for a debit for the last two weeks to strikes $215-210. The stock is up almost 25% for the last 15 days and I am really considering letting some shares go or roll sideways. I would love to rebuy shares back in the $180-170. I am wondering if anyone heard Elon that we are going to have a tough year and to buy the dip because since then the stock is on a tear 
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to strikes $215-210. The stock is up almost 25% for the last 15 days and I am really considering letting some shares go or roll sideways. I would love to rebuy shares back in the $180-170. I am wondering if anyone heard Elon that we are going to have a tough year and to buy the dip because since then the stock is on a tear .
SebastienBonny
Member
Are we seeing inverse Elon here?I have been rolling everything for a debit for the last two weeks
Another example of a stock market being irrational…
Seen it many times you keep on thinking the SP will keep rising only to stop at a certain point and go down again. Of course, we are still way from ATH, but I can’t see us moving there right now.
The institutional buy yesterday around 198-200 created a pretty strong base there IMO. It might (or might not) break down below that but it wont be too deep. On the upside, 215-217 is the next target, then 230ish.I have been rolling everything for a debit for the last two weeks
As of right now, my priority is to manage the positions so that I am not forced to roll out after the P&D next month.
Personally, I like the idea of selling strangles so this week would have been a great time to have 40x -p190s and -40x -c220s. Next week’s -200p/-220c strangles are $5.50 (~1% return), though I might go a bit higher on the strikes, and wait until Wednesday. I know people have sworn off BPSs, but perhaps something very far OTM like +170p/-180p paying $0.20 on $10 spread (2% return) would be a safe pairing with some -c250s at $0.26. Again, waiting until Wednesday to sell options seems prudent, and was one of @Yoona ’s main strengths.
Unfortunately, the next few weeks is very uncertain for SP direction because of 1) debt ceiling deal done, 2) EOQ push down or run up, 3) at TA resistance/pivot point, 4) FOMO run up, 5) profit taking, 6) BlackRock call buying rumors, 7) Elon’s coy “for now” comment, and finally 8) SP closed above 200d SMA. Best to be very conservative on strikes right now. GLTA.
I sold all my shares on c150's, but with a net price of $164 if you include the premiums
I don't trust the current bull run, the whole thing is fuelled by a handful of tech mega-caps. Seems ridiculous to me that AAPL, NVDA and MSFT are all close to ATH, the macro economy just doesn't support it
Does that mean the bubble will burst? Not necessarily, stock markets are irrational and random, they go up and down for no apparent reason, but I've seen these moves in TSLA many times over the years, up and down, and got burned badly on several occasions and then again when it reversed after closing out losing positions and opening new ones in the opposite direction
I structured my current trade to either take good profits or buy some TSLA at a low net price
To recall, I have July 21 1:3 -200 straddles written against Dec 2025 c140 & c200's -> the idea is that at expiry, assuming >200 I will close out the lot, current projection is that this will net around $40 per straddle/LEAP combo. If we're ATM, then I'll likely roll the straddle out a month, or maybe to October and adapt to a strangle. If <200 then I could decide to allow the p200's to exercise, the net share price would be $139
If I end up with the shares then I'd be able to go aggressive selling calls with the LEAPS, if I go totally to cash, then I'll start selling puts until it crashes, then I'll reload with LEAPS or shares, probability is that we stay around 200 and I roll
I have considered writing some shitcalls, to cover a sudden massive move to the upside, but I think the time to do that has passed, they're too expensive now, would likely be throwing money down the pan
SebastienBonny
Member
So actually you're saying we might stay flat here
.Most important part to remember is don't panic if you're under water. You might think a position is lost, but most of the time the SP revisits certain levels or gives you opportunities to get out.
I feel like there's still some upside potential, so will certainly be careful with shares I don't want to lose.
On the other hand these levels are perfect for the shares I'm willing to let go, because we are around their cost base here.
My game plan for those is to wait until the week of expiry. Best feeling is no worries when it gets ITM.
Other positives are no margin issues and a long term put going down in value (June 25 260).
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