pocket change transaction ... just not trusting this weeks action. Today I opened and closed 8/11 +p225/-p235 for .25 round trip. In other news, neither the midpoint price nor replacing by inching towards the bid was enough for the roll of 20Oct230 to 17NovC235 to fill. Will try that again tomorrow.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I’m still holding 5x -c225s 2025 LEAPs in one account. Others -c290s, -c300s of various 2023-2035 dates. Waiting, mostly as a hedge, on a further drop, but not expecting it necessarily. I buyback one or two whenever there’s enough premium generated from my weekly ICs and CCs. Not worried about an SP bounce just yet. We’re still in the upward channel, but in a downward trend to the bottom of that channel. Looking at the biggest options trades, there are a bunch of bearish bets, including sold ATM calls and some BOUGHT dITM puts (like 8/11 p275s, 8/18 p3xxs, etc). Who buys 1DTE +p275???? These weren’t rolls or spreads, so somebody is selling lots of shares ATM without affecting the SP. Anyway, it looks like there’s more downside, at least until the RSI and MACD are lower.
In other news, definitely NOT advice. Don’t try this at home unless you’re a real professional: Check out KVUE Sept options. I don’t even know anything about the stock or what’s going on (and definitely won’t trade it). It just showed up in my feed as the highest % increase in options activity, like +50,000%. This is a stock that has had NO options activity and there were 300,000 OTM contracts being traded. Anyone know what’s happening???? @Max Plaid
Edit: On a personal note, I may have to go dark on folks in the next month or so. No, nothing is wrong, financially or otherwise, just may need to close all internet activities. I’m not getting a job with Tesla or anything that crazy, just the possibility of being too busy to trade or watch investments. I’m even considering closing out everything and going back to cash or index funds. In any case, it’s been an extremely interesting and useful learning experience . Thanks to everyone, but especially @adiggs for starting this thread!
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Gonna miss you and your wonderful posts! Good luck in whatever it is and know that you will be missed!
Maybe pop by once in a while
Don't know the company, but someone's betting big that the stock is going down, here's one of the trades 5000x +p&-c, could be a short & distort attack? Will WSB pick up on this and counter-attack??
jeewee3000
Active Member
Feels like another WallStreetBets investment flash mob.
Except these big positions are a bet to the downside, WSB normally bid stocks up, especially those under short attack
Price history of the position is interesting, well more weird I would say, looks like it's something traded in and out of on a regular basis for 40% profits:
There is a MAJOR stock swap coming from JNJ for KENVUE..all JNJ holders must commit what portion of holdings to swap by 8/17/23. This is probably one of the biggest in history at this point, so yeah it’s going to skew the options markets for KVUE for sure. If you in JNJ for some reason (I still hold a sizeable position in some accounts) make sure you make your selections.
I think its less WSB at this point and more major holders of JNJ positioning or hedging large positions based on what they are going to convert..and there is also a very large retail participation in JNJ from centuries..for this stock split-off there is an odd treatment for odd lots which get the full participation, so it’s almost going to magically create more shares 1% or value 7%, but without knowing at the time how many will be created. So, i think that might be what’s skewing the options markets even more.
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Ah yes, I read about this, there's some kind of story going around that if you buy 99 shares of JNJ it will be made up to 100, but it's dependent on being able to nominate your shares, which I'm not sure would be possible from Europe, so I kept out of it
PPI came in a little hotter than forecast, so downward pressure on the markets today. That being said, I read that another 0.25% hike had been priced-in, so not sure what difference it really makes
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
-230CC for sept 15. (FYI big boy yesterday has been buying puts 210 for the same date for approx 17.5 million investment) Does not have to imply SP 200 or so, but somebody gambling big time with intent to jump out early?) So I went along as soon as SP crossed 240 (I know, we need a close below..)
I agree on macro working against a (fast and furious spike from a) bottom, so assume it will be steady around 240 and then a last blow to close all short positions, which I, on TSLA, further do not have. Still very much short (-C's) NVDA RIVN c3.AI
I agree on macro working against a (fast and furious spike from a) bottom, so assume it will be steady around 240 and then a last blow to close all short positions, which I, on TSLA, further do not have. Still very much short (-C's) NVDA RIVN c3.AI
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Reading OI for the first two weeks of September, that would likely be the two weeks to make the real bottom (still can be 240 though), no guys with huge option positions standing in the way..
Hey @adiggs, I took advantage of the dip to churn my short LEAPS again: BTC 56x Sep 2024 -c200 @$76 -> STO 55x Sep 2024 -c200 @$77 = +$67k realised and one less contract (let $2k cash go for that one less contract, worth it IMO)
Could have waited, for an extra $2, but no point taking risks, it's a nice little trade as it is and I'll rinse/repeat as the opportunities come
Of course with these long-dated calls, there's not a huge amount of liquidity and the Ask/Bid is $1 wide, so you need to be a bit patient and not be too concerned about the best price, better to get the trade done profitably than be left holding the baby
Could have waited, for an extra $2, but no point taking risks, it's a nice little trade as it is and I'll rinse/repeat as the opportunities come
Of course with these long-dated calls, there's not a huge amount of liquidity and the Ask/Bid is $1 wide, so you need to be a bit patient and not be too concerned about the best price, better to get the trade done profitably than be left holding the baby
8/18 GEX seems to imply -C265 is "safe" for next week due to all the green GEX walls on the way up.
Anyone else see that as a reasonable safe target using other indicators and general market sense?
What holds me back is deltas are still bullish/hold and haven't turned bearish and "maybe" 238-240 was the bottom?:
But then we have new +GEX at 210 that appeared today and all the air between 242 and 210 wide open
:
Anyone else see that as a reasonable safe target using other indicators and general market sense?
What holds me back is deltas are still bullish/hold and haven't turned bearish and "maybe" 238-240 was the bottom?:
But then we have new +GEX at 210 that appeared today and all the air between 242 and 210 wide open
:
Who knows... just needs some positive news about Highland or Cybertruck to come out and could reverse, but 10% in a week would still be a lot8/18 GEX seems to imply -C265 is "safe" for next week due to all the green GEX walls on the way up.
Anyone else see that as a reasonable safe target using other indicators and general market sense?
View attachment 964008
What holds me back is deltas are still bullish/hold and haven't turned bearish and "maybe" 238-240 was the bottom?:
View attachment 964009
But then we have new +GEX at 210 that appeared today and all the air between 242 and 210 wide open
View attachment 964010
I know I already wrote -c250's for next week, but these are at least straddled with puts and I have the capacity to write 60x more contracts to help all them up/out if needed
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
crazy people do exist hoping for SP 95 on august 25.... (position started today, happy to know if it is a seller, but presumably not, maybe some buyer hoping to make a 100%+ return, closing it at a possible flash crash for $TSLA) it is a 1 cent buy (so broker fees are more than that in my situation of buying against $2.40 per contract, so I would need a fast 45 dollar SP-drop to break even... ) WHAT DO WE NOT KNOW?
Cheap insurance to improve margin risk to allow buying more long positions.
Or someone mistyped...
It won’t take much to take it to .02 or .03, so hmm, I’m putting that in my watch/strike list just for entertainment. Sometimes though, I also think really WAYYY outliers like this are mean to skew the closer ATM and near OTM strikes enough to get them ITM for some positions. It’s a clear head fake sometimes, but one that for very low $$, can make some very LARGE $$ moves in the closer ATM strikes. It’s 100% mkt manipulation, but it’s NOT illegal. It’s sort of like having multiple bidders at an auction with the sole intention of moving the bid price UP (or in this case down)… two ppl, that’s collusion and clear manipulation, but same person, not so much.
Personally, i find the 210/220 strike PUT positions more interesting for near term indicators.
Is the (NFA) consensus here that TSLA begins its visit with the $230’s and maybe even lower next week?
Edit to add:
STO 30x -C265 8/18 @$0.52
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STO 30x -C265 8/18 @$0.52
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I've decided to take assignment on some of the 250 puts I have expiring today. I'll use those for cash backed cc on Monday.
Meanwhile I rolled the rest out 2 weeks to 245s, and opened 230s that are also 2 weeks out. That gives me 245s next week, 245s and 230s the week after that, and intent to sell some calls on Monday.
I see the combination of trades as being a distant cousin to @Max Plaid 's straddles - I'm just moving the strikes away from the share price by $10-20 so they're still fairly aggressive, but have more room for the share price to move. So far I've been able to roll for 2 weeks, a strike improvement, and enough credit to keep me rolling the position.
Meanwhile I rolled the rest out 2 weeks to 245s, and opened 230s that are also 2 weeks out. That gives me 245s next week, 245s and 230s the week after that, and intent to sell some calls on Monday.
I see the combination of trades as being a distant cousin to @Max Plaid 's straddles - I'm just moving the strikes away from the share price by $10-20 so they're still fairly aggressive, but have more room for the share price to move. So far I've been able to roll for 2 weeks, a strike improvement, and enough credit to keep me rolling the position.
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