What the tweet doesn’t say is that together with the 2.5 million comes a visit from the SEC
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
What the tweet doesn’t say is that together with the 2.5 million comes a visit from the SEC
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I was ready to make a similar trade after yesterday's close, but this morning got a little hectic and I forgot. I was looking at $11 calls for 7/5 IIRC. The opportunity was the cost cutting efforts that Rivian had completed. I wouldn't be at $2.5 million with the bet though...What the tweet doesn’t say is that together with the 2.5 million comes a visit from the SEC
Verne electric robotaxi unveiled by Rimac Group
FULL PRESS RELEASE
FULL PRESS RELEASE
Seems clear to me at least, that Wall St is setting up Tesla for a decent beat.
Because otherwise, not sure how anyone is dropping delivery estimates while ignoring what's been happening in Europe for the past 2-3 weeks. The wave is back with a vengeance.
This doesn't even include Italy which is hitting daily totals of 400-500/cars a day and places like Czech Republic which also just hit records. China just hit 17,500 last week. Meanwhile in the US, there's little to no discounts on inventory on the Y which is a first for the past 4 quarters. Just a one or two that have $500 off
The recently announced tariffs on Chinese vehicles in Europe could actually causing a spike in non-daily reporting European countries as well. I'm personally projecting the number to come in around 425-430k.
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NVDA 2 gaps filled on the way down, 1 left to go3 unfilled gaps to 106
hopefully that’s it
There has indeed been a bit of a wave, in those countries we can see at least, but you need to be comparing Tesla to Tesla, not the other manufacturers, this is more representative
Currently roughly -9% vs 24Q1 and -15% vs 23Q2, so likely China will bridge the Q1 difference, will all depend on US and row, 420k would be good, maybe they get there
But then will need huge Q3&4 to beat 2023, which I find extremely improbable
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Quite the flip in Futures and pre-market, I see no macro news for that...?
@dl003 Today we get to test the theory/effect of "too many eyes" on a pump for chances for a decent run. Everyone everywhere, including on socials talking about TSLA being ready finally launch to $200-$210.
Logic says wait for Tuesday P&D but maybe they want to front run. Going to be an interesting few days.
I'm out of near-term CC's and watching.
If we see $198-$200 area I might look to sell -C210 7/19 for ~$6.00, counting on $200 not being passed with a daily close the first attempt, and expecting a retrace back at least to the breakout point $187 area after the first try (though I think you once said sometimes we don't revisit if it's a breakout?)
Logic says wait for Tuesday P&D but maybe they want to front run. Going to be an interesting few days.
I'm out of near-term CC's and watching.
If we see $198-$200 area I might look to sell -C210 7/19 for ~$6.00, counting on $200 not being passed with a daily close the first attempt, and expecting a retrace back at least to the breakout point $187 area after the first try (though I think you once said sometimes we don't revisit if it's a breakout?)
Elon Musk's EV Giant Will See Revenue From Its Auto Business Slumping This Year, But Tesla 'May Hold Some Important Cards In The Evolution Of The US Grid,' Says Analyst
Jun 26, 202407:59 EDTMorgan Stanley analyst and Tesla Inc
TSLA bull Adam Jonas forecasts Tesla’s revenue from its energy segment to rise this year as its core EV business witnesses a revenue fall.What Happened: Jonas values Tesla Energy at $36 per share of his $310 price target for the company. The bull is optimistic for the segment and expects it to add over $1 in earnings per share by 2030 excluding incentives.
The analyst said in a note on Tuesday that the acceleration in the field of generative AI will create an increase in demand for energy which Tesla is well positioned to benefit from.
“We believe that Tesla’s capability in distributed energy generation (solar) and storage (powerwall/ megapack) may hold some important cards in the evolution of the US grid as energy usage of compute/ data grows,” Jonas wrote while adding that he expects Tesla’s energy segment to generate $7 billion in revenue for the full year 2024, up by nearly 20% from 2023. Auto revenues, however, will go down, the analyst predicted.
Jonas also expects Tesla Energy margins to surpass Tesla Auto margins this year.
Why It Matters: In 2023, Tesla’s energy segment accrued revenues of $6,035 million, up 54% up from 2022.
In January, the company expressed expectations for the growth rate of deployment and revenue in the energy storage business in 2024 to surpass that of the automotive sector. Deployments will be volatile and impacted by logistics and global distribution of products, said the company, while adding that it still expects continued growth on a twelve-month basis.
For the first quarter, Tesla disclosed that it deployed 4,053 MWh of energy storage products, representing its highest quarterly deployment to date and a year-on-year increase of 4.2%.
In April, Musk said that the demand for its stationary energy storage products is "super high" and hinted that the company might make more batteries for energy storage than cars in the long term.
"I think Tesla might end up doing more total Joules in stationary than mobile long-term,” Musk said.
Earlier this month, during Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the company is on track to complete a “massive number of energy deployments.”
“We seem to be tracking to sort of a 200- to 300-percent year-over-year growth in energy storage deployment and stationary pack. So it's giant. And the limiting factor really is being able to build more Megapacks and build more Powerwalls,” Musk said.
The Tesla to Tesla comparison doesn't change anything about what I'm saying though. With the rate of the wave this quarter, that -9% gap between Q1 will be closed in the next few days. And again, it still doesn't take into account other daily reporting countries like Italy that literally added their entire Q1 total in the matter o 30 days and still going. Italy is going to 3-4X its Q1 numbers.
As for the rest of your post, we have disagreed often about what's important to TSLA for the rest of this year. I don't think Wall St cares about 2024, they've written it off. As long as Tesla's sales and thus margins/earnings don't completely collapse further. I actually think Wall St will look favorably on a TSLA for the rest of the year even if there's no growth in revenue or slightly down.
Why? Because it seems to me Tesla of focusing on margins/profits now instead of delivery numbers. If they can show margin stability and expansion by keeping ASP steady and realizing COGS reductions, they can increase earnings even if delivery numbers for Q3/Q4 are slightly below 2023.
ChiefRollo
Member
This simply gives VW first dip on RIVN's assets with the delayed / impending bankruptcy.
Musk told us on Q1ER that 2024 would see delivery growth over 2024, this was a pure stock pump IMO and now it seems everyone has forgotten about it
As for Q2 deliveries - the biggest European markets, France, Germany and UK are not yet visible, so too early to count any chickens IMO
Don't forget this is the trading thread, not the HODL, we're not breathing hopium and cheerleading the stock 24/7, we need to be critical and grounded
Yeah I very much agree and it's what I like about this thread verses the other.
Part of the reason my view is TSLA and how it trades for the rest of 2024 is grounded in the fact that I think Wall St wants to trade TSLA. But that they ideally want a much bigger trading range than 140-190. They want at least something like 150-250 to trade/play.
And I think the current dynamic amongst Tesla investors and traders today is that Tesla investors and institutional investors who are still holding, who held after terrible Q1 numbers, are in it for the next phase of Tesla. They've written off 2024. So they will act as support levels for the stock in the 150 to today's 190 share range.
For traders and hedgies, I don't think they would be happy at all with just a 150-190 trading range and since there's clear support at the lower level of that range, their options are to latch onto any good news and ride a rally up to the mid 200's or even higher...only to cash out and then re-position themselves to ride a correct back down to the 180-200 range before re-positioning again for a further rally higher in 2025.
So my entire thesis for how TSLA trades this year is based around Wall St trading, not HODL.
ChiefRollo
Member
One assumes this is RIVN lifting all EV boats today...
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